The Race for Top 6

[Yes N'Didi]

Before berating for starting a new topic - let me explain.

 

I've created some research to see if we are making progress, and where result adjustments need to be made in order to achieve a coveted European spot. As an average over the last 5 seasons, 64 points is enough to secure 6th place and (more than likely) a European spot.

 

I have mapped out all of our games this season, and looked at the last five years of results to determine an average points take for each fixture, home and away. The first 5 games are mapped out as below.

 

Wolves (H)

Result: Draw

Average Points: 3 (1W)

Predicted result: W

Verdict: -2

 

Chelsea (A)

Result: Draw

Average Points: 1 (1W/2D/1L)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict: +/- 0

 

Sheffield United (A)

Result: Win

Average Points: n/a

Predicted Result: W

Verdict: +/- 0

 

Bournemouth (H)

Result: Win

Average Points: 1.5 (1W/3D)

Predicted Result: D

Verdict +2

 

Manchester United (A)

Result: Loss

Average Points: 0.2 (1D/4L)

Predicted Result: Loss

Verdict: +/- 0

 

Performance Verdict So Far: +/- 0 points

 

Based on our history in these fixtures over the last 5 years, we are currently exactly where we should be, which suggest no improvement has been made. 

 

In the next 5 games, we come up against Spurs, Newcastle, Liverpool, Burnley and Southampton. Based on the five year history, to make an improvement we need to secure more than 6 points. 

 

Spurs (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 0.8 (1W/1D/3L)

Predicted Result: D

 

Newcastle (H)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.5 (2W/2L)

Predicted Result: D

 

Liverpool (A)

Result:

Average Points: 0.4 (2D/3L)

Predicted Result: L

 

Burnley (H)

Result:

Average Points: 2 (2W/2D)

Predicted Result: W

 

Southampton (A)

Result: 

Average Points: 1.4 (2W/1D/2L)

Predicted Result: D

 

If we continue to fall in line with our average points tally from previous seasons, (0-0.5 as a loss, 0.6-1.6 as a draw, 2+ as a win) we are scheduled to finish on 54 points, a two point improvement on last season. In order to make the jump by another 10 points or so, we need to be seeing an average of a points improvement every 4 games. For me, the big opportunity in the next 5 matches is converting Newcastle at home to a win. I think the other predicted results could all feasibly happen, potentially losing to Spurs or winning away at Southampton.

 

Looking further afield, some of our unhappiest hunting grounds to make improvements are Wolves (only played once, so average 0 points), Villa (D1/L1, average 0.5), Bournemouth (2D/2L, average 0.5), Watford (1W/3L, average 0.75) and Palace (1W,1D,3L, average 0.8). Converting any of these into a win, or improving to a draw are easy points to pick up. Providing we then win our winnable home games, and where possible try and avoid defeat against the 'bigger sides' we should be on track to break into the top 6.

 

Will continue to update every 5 games or so with the full list of matches if of any interest.

 

If of any interest, these are the fixtures which have yeilded us the most Premier League points over the last 5 years - would not have pegged Arsenal (H) as being third!

 

Team	H/A	Total	Average Points
Watford	H	12	3
Newcastle	A	9	2.25
Arsenal	H	8	1.6
West Ham	A	8	1.6
Southampton	H	8	1.6
West Ham	H	8	1.6
Burnley	H	8	2
Southampton	A	7	1.4
Everton	H	7	1.4
Man City	H	7	1.4
Everton	A	7	1.4
Liverpool	H	6	1.2
Palace	H	6	1.2
Bournemouth	H	6	1.5
Newcastle	H	6	1.5
Burnley	A	6	1.5
Villa	H	6	3
Brighton	H	6	3
Chelsea	A	5	1
Man Utd	H	5	1
Spurs	H	4	0.8
Palace	A	4	0.8
Chelsea	H	4	0.8
Spurs	A	4	0.8
Brighton	A	4	2
Man City	A	3	0.6
Watford	A	3	0.75
Wolves	H	3	3
Norwich	H	3	3
Norwich	A	3	3
Liverpool	A	2	0.4
Bournemouth	A	2	0.5
Man Utd	A	1	0.2
Villa	A	1	0.5
Wolves	A	0	0
Arsenal	A	0	0
Sheffield United	A	0	N/A
Sheffield United	H	0	N/A

[urban.spaceman]

*berates @Yes N'Didi for starting a new thread*

[TheLittleBigMan]

I think you might need to get out more son..

[Trav Le Bleu]

I rate this thread "B".

[ealingfox]

Ffs we are not getting top 6 stop this delusion!

[lestajigs]

3 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

Ffs we are not getting top 6 stop this delusion!

Ouch

[gurru991]

10 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

Ffs we are not getting top 6 stop this delusion!

We are not top six quality at the present moment and will need to improve in the final third to even take the seventh spot. The press have got a hold of this top six thing and I think some City fans are believing it.

I have no problems with us aiming for top six but we have work to do. Playing two defensive midfielders will not get us there.

[koop.]

Out of interest, how long did this take you?

Also, do you have a job?

If so, does your boss know?

If not (yet), you'll need to look for another job soon!

If done in spare evening time, you'll need to look for another girlfriend soon!

[StanSP]

My kind of thread. Love a good stat! Ridiculously detailed but not gonna berate you for it

 

[Trav Le Bleu]

32 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

Ffs we are not getting top 6 stop this delusion!

[Nicolo Barella]

28 minutes ago, gurru991 said:

We are not top six quality at the present moment and will need to improve in the final third to even take the seventh spot. The press have got a hold of this top six thing and I think some City fans are believing it.

I have no problems with us aiming for top six but we have work to do. Playing two defensive midfielders will not get us there.

Will we? All the other challengers for Seventh have started poorly and have a host of other problems. 

[gurru991]

5 minutes ago, Nicolo Barella said:

Will we? All the other challengers for Seventh have started poorly and have a host of other problems. 

If we are relying on other teams to under-achieve then i don't feel that is much of a game plan. I would like for us to be candidates based on our performances

[ARM1968]

Top 6?  Nah, we’re going to win the whole thing mate. Numero uno. 

[Heymister2015]

After losing against a man utd side thats the equivilant of bolton wanderers/stoke city of old with poor/ boring/ negative football we stand no chance of top six! We messed up in the transfer window and should of signed che adams as back up to vardy! and Ismaila sarr as a wing option. Also we persist on playing tielimans/maddison out of position to accomodate ndidi and choudhary and have nothing up top if Vardy is injured.  Also no plan B! Fortunitely the premier league is poor from 3rd down and all the teams are as bad as each other.  we'll finish a standard 9th this season

[mozartfox]

Any chance you can do something similar explaining the Duckworth Lewis Method Versus the UEFA Co-efficient ratings?

 

 

[Guest Manini]

25 minutes ago, Heymister2015 said:

After losing against a man utd side thats the equivilant of bolton wanderers/stoke city of old with poor/ boring/ negative football we stand no chance of top six! We messed up in the transfer window and should of signed che adams as back up to vardy! and Ismaila sarr as a wing option. Also we persist on playing tielimans/maddison out of position to accomodate ndidi and choudhary and have nothing up top if Vardy is injured.  Also no plan B! Fortunitely the premier league is poor from 3rd down and all the teams are as bad as each other.  we'll finish a standard 9th this season

I bet you get invited to a lot of parties/social gatherings don’t you? 

 

Sorry  

 

Come on mate it’s not that bad! We’ll be fine just relax, seasons barely started 

[Yes N'Didi]

2 hours ago, koop. said:

Out of interest, how long did this take you?

Also, do you have a job?

If so, does your boss know?

If not (yet), you'll need to look for another job soon!

If done in spare evening time, you'll need to look for another girlfriend soon!

Thanks for your helpful contribution.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Interesting stats. As I suspected we are off the pace currently. It would have been nice to get a point at United or all 3 at Chelsea.

[Yes N'Didi]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Interesting stats. As I suspected we are off the pace currently. It would have been nice to get a point at United or all 3 at Chelsea.

Definitely. I think there was a lot of hyesteria after the United loss where we saw it as a missed opportunity - which it was, but so much pressure was placed on the game, not helped by the Maguire link, that it was our only opportunity to replace them and show what we’re about.

 

The key is consistency, something United are lacking at the minute. We were so frustratingly inconsistent last season (beating Chelsea and Man City and losing at home to Cardiff) that we just need to find a way to keep making small improvements to results. If we can get any form of a run going it’s not inconceivable to break the top 6. It’s delivering marginal gains.

[jayfox26]

Some seem to think that winning at Old Trafford/Stamford Bridge is the be all and end all of us trying to break the top 6. Obviously taking points off these teams helps but the key area we have fallen down previously is beating the absolute shower of shite teams like Palace etc. Other than Wolves, as that games gone, we should be beating every team at home outside the top 6 which is 12 teams (Bournemouth weve already beaten obviously) which equates to 36 points. A few draws against some bigger teams with maybe a win or 2 and that would see us to +40 points at home. That means we'd need roughly around 24 points away from home to have a chance of top 6. We already have 4 points away from home so thats down to 20 which is 6 wins and 2 draws away from home against the other 12 teams outside the top 6 we are yet to play away against. Its a tough ask, and Brendan needs to change things up in certain games but its definitely achievable. Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea, Everton and Wolves have all looked dodgy at times this season so its all to play for. 

[TheLittleBigMan]

3 hours ago, jayfox26 said:

Some seem to think that winning at Old Trafford/Stamford Bridge is the be all and end all of us trying to break the top 6. Obviously taking points off these teams helps but the key area we have fallen down previously is beating the absolute shower of shite teams like Palace etc. Other than Wolves, as that games gone, we should be beating every team at home outside the top 6 which is 12 teams (Bournemouth weve already beaten obviously) which equates to 36 points. A few draws against some bigger teams with maybe a win or 2 and that would see us to +40 points at home. That means we'd need roughly around 24 points away from home to have a chance of top 6. We already have 4 points away from home so thats down to 20 which is 6 wins and 2 draws away from home against the other 12 teams outside the top 6 we are yet to play away against. Its a tough ask, and Brendan needs to change things up in certain games but its definitely achievable. Arsenal, Man U, Chelsea, Everton and Wolves have all looked dodgy at times this season so its all to play for. 

This. We know we can give the top six a game and on our day even beat them. Think where our season should be judged is how we deal with the teams who sit deep. So many points have gone begging with teams below us.

[Tanya]

I hate all this stuff about top six. Right now we are way off in my opinion. Let's reevaluate in the new year but all this giddiness about us making Europe or even the Champions League makes me very uncomfortable 

[Nicolo Barella]

12 hours ago, gurru991 said:

If we are relying on other teams to under-achieve then i don't feel that is much of a game plan. I would like for us to be candidates based on our performances

I agree. Just saying that the past few seasons have shown us that it isn't the "best of the rest" that gets seventh usually, but the "least shit", the one that manages to limp over the line. Wolves, Burnley, etc.

[treer]

44 minutes ago, Tanya said:

Right now we are way off in my opinion. I hate all this stuff about top six.

If you look at the table, you will see that your opinion is not correct, right now, we are fifth.

[Tanya]

18 minutes ago, treer said:

If you look at the table, you will see that your opinion is not correct, right now, we are fifth.

Heh. Touche.

 

I'm just saying I'm sceptical we have what it takes as of now to stay in that position.  Maybe I'm just being a negative nelly though