Down at halftime? Use your subs

[KingsX]

A good new piece on fivethirtyeight cites data to support the case for making more and earlier subs.  It’s amazing how obvious this is to fans, but not to managers

But as it notes, the economist John Maynard Keynes once observed, it’s safer to “fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/down-at-halftime-in-a-soccer-game-use-your-subs/      excerpts:

 

It is halftime in a soccer game. One side is losing. Most of the time, that team’s manager decides to persist with the 11 players who started the match until well into the second half.

 

That lack of action actually damages the team’s prospects of making a comeback in the game. And despite the data that lays out a more prudent approach, holding on to substitutions remains commonplace in top level soccer. But it is also becoming less frequent.

 

Players coming off the bench tend to be markedly more productive than the players they replace, as well as the players who stay on. Statsbomb analyzed regular goalscorers in the Big Five European soccer leagues in the 2012-13 season and found that when players were substituted onto the field, they scored at comfortably the highest rate — 0.65 goals per 90 minutes — of the sample of 268 players. The rate was 50 percent more than for the players who were subbed off (0.42) and even more than for players who played the full 90 minutes (0.38). This implies not only that fresh players are significantly more likely to score than tired ones, but also that players are simply not as effective at scoring when they play the full match.

 

Sometimes, an element of pre-planning in substitutions may be advantageous. For instance, if forwards are told they are likely to be taken off at halftime, that may encourage them to run even more in the first half and pressure opposing defenders, rather than worrying about conserving their energy. “To turn substitutions into a proactive strategical decision rather than the reactive or habitual practice we see so often is certainly an area which teams should look to exploit,” said James Yorke, a senior analyst at StatsBomb. “The game gets ever faster, so prepping for a guy to give you all his running for 45 minutes… is just a logical idea to implement.”

 

[UPinCarolina]

6 minutes ago, KingsX said:

A good new piece on fivethirtyeight cites data to support the case for making more and earlier subs.  It’s amazing how obvious this is to fans, but not to managers

But as it notes, the economist John Maynard Keynes once observed, it’s safer to “fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/down-at-halftime-in-a-soccer-game-use-your-subs/      excerpts:

 

It is halftime in a soccer game. One side is losing. Most of the time, that team’s manager decides to persist with the 11 players who started the match until well into the second half.

 

That lack of action actually damages the team’s prospects of making a comeback in the game. And despite the data that lays out a more prudent approach, holding on to substitutions remains commonplace in top level soccer. But it is also becoming less frequent.

 

Players coming off the bench tend to be markedly more productive than the players they replace, as well as the players who stay on. Statsbomb analyzed regular goalscorers in the Big Five European soccer leagues in the 2012-13 season and found that when players were substituted onto the field, they scored at comfortably the highest rate — 0.65 goals per 90 minutes — of the sample of 268 players. The rate was 50 percent more than for the players who were subbed off (0.42) and even more than for players who played the full 90 minutes (0.38). This implies not only that fresh players are significantly more likely to score than tired ones, but also that players are simply not as effective at scoring when they play the full match.

 

Sometimes, an element of pre-planning in substitutions may be advantageous. For instance, if forwards are told they are likely to be taken off at halftime, that may encourage them to run even more in the first half and pressure opposing defenders, rather than worrying about conserving their energy. “To turn substitutions into a proactive strategical decision rather than the reactive or habitual practice we see so often is certainly an area which teams should look to exploit,” said James Yorke, a senior analyst at StatsBomb. “The game gets ever faster, so prepping for a guy to give you all his running for 45 minutes… is just a logical idea to implement.”

 

Brilliant post. Thank you for sharing!

[KingsX]

Just now, UPinCarolina said:

Brilliant post. Thank you for sharing!

 

Thanks.

 

I had to grab the once-in-a-lifetime chance to quote Keynes on FT.

[RoboFox]

I think Matt Piper was talking about this on RL the other day, and explained that in his day it was called "dragging" a player, and within the dressing room environment is almost considered disrespectful, or the harshest possible criticism of the individual being subbed off for any other reason than injury.

 

It could seriously affect a player's confidence, and as such is a rare occurrence.

 

[KingsX]

20 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

I think Matt Piper was talking about this on RL the other day, and explained that in his day it was called "dragging" a player, and within the dressing room environment is almost considered disrespectful, or the harshest possible criticism of the individual being subbed off for any other reason than injury.

 

It could seriously affect a players confidence, and as such is a rare occurrence.

 

That’s a good perspective, and may help explain managers’ reluctance, since nearly all were players in Piper’s day or earlier.

 

I think managers should address it by making substitutions a well-understood part of the game plan, and by simple man-management, rather than by not making subs.  “What we need from you today is 45 minutes at 100%.  I’ll change at the half for fresher legs and to adjust tactics.  You remain the man for our XI.”

 

If subs are regularly and predictably used, and in some cases planned, there shouldn’t be such a stigma.

[spacemunky]

37 minutes ago, KingsX said:

 

But as it notes, the economist John Maynard Keynes once observed, it’s safer to “fail conventionally than to succeed".

 

Is he no longer with Tool, or is this his other gig?

[yorkie1999]

36 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

I think Matt Piper was talking about this on RL the other day, and explained that in his day it was called "dragging" a player, and within the dressing room environment is almost considered disrespectful, or the harshest possible criticism of the individual being subbed off for any other reason than injury.

 

It could seriously affect a players confidence, and as such is a rare occurrence.

I also think that if a manager has to make an unforced change/s at half time, the manager probably feels like he got his tactics wrong in the first place.

[Bryn]

Point for debate, without offering an opinion; how would people feel about rolling substitutions?

[KingsX]

53 minutes ago, spacemunky said:

Is he no longer with Tool, or is this his other gig?

 

  Actually I met Maynard James Keenan in Sedona 2 or 3 years back ... he's making overpriced wine now. 

 

 

No idea if he's still doing Puscifer (whose singer from Wolverhampton is more musician than him IMO).

[davieG]

Subs from a losing position are usually part of a change of tactics to a more attacking 'risky' approach so I think irrespective of timing that will tend to result in more goals, not sure what it does to the defence though.

[Nalis]

2 hours ago, RoboFox said:

I think Matt Piper was talking about this on RL the other day, and explained that in his day it was called "dragging" a player, and within the dressing room environment is almost considered disrespectful, or the harshest possible criticism of the individual being subbed off for any other reason than injury.

 

It could seriously affect a player's confidence, and as such is a rare occurrence.

 

 

2 hours ago, KingsX said:

 

That’s a good perspective, and may help explain managers’ reluctance, since nearly all were players in Piper’s day or earlier.

 

I think managers should address it by making substitutions a well-understood part of the game plan, and by simple man-management, rather than by not making subs.  “What we need from you today is 45 minutes at 100%.  I’ll change at the half for fresher legs and to adjust tactics.  You remain the man for our XI.”

 

If subs are regularly and predictably used, and in some cases planned, there shouldn’t be such a stigma.

Yeah styles change so if half time subs were the norm it might lose its stigma in the dressing room.

[Houdini Logic]

I never understood why managers seem obsessed with the 60 minute mark, until I read a football autobiography which said players don't get a full appearance fee unless they play over 30 minutes of normal time. Could explain a few things...

[Collymore]

14 hours ago, Houdini Logic said:

I never understood why managers seem obsessed with the 60 minute mark, until I read a football autobiography which said players don't get a full appearance fee unless they play over 30 minutes of normal time. Could explain a few things...

I doubt at the top level it would be because of that.

 

I'd imagine it's manager ego subbing too early as it's almost a "I hold my hands up and I got it wrong" moment. I remember Morinio in his early days at Chelsea making subs sometimes in the first half but he was an enigma back then.

 

Also managers normally make subs straight after the other team has made their subs/tactical changes so they can utilise the players coming on to nullify any new threat or set up in a way where they know the opposition might find it hard to adjust to after making their subs -so it can be a case of who blinks first. 

 

Also there's all of this sports data where they normally know on what minute a player should be coming off before the game has even kicked off. You might have a player who isn't having the greatest game but really needs his 60 mins as part of the bigger sports science side. 

 

 

 

 

[ozleicester]

On 19/09/2019 at 23:27, KingsX said:

 

Thanks.

 

I had to grab the once-in-a-lifetime chance to quote Keynes on FT.

Lets hope its the last time

[pSinatra]

There might be something in this?