FT General Election Poll 2019

[Guest MattP]

Anyone watching the Sky News debate on Scotland? Adam Boulton says we should have had a Green representative but they have haven't shown up, he then announces after the ad break the Green party have said they are now boycotting the debate as they won't participate in an "all-male" panel.

 

Followed by another announcement that the representative the Greens nominated who pulled out was actually a man

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Really hard to predict - and might remain so until the day.

 

I think my "range" would put the Tories at 300-370 at the moment, but events in the next fortnight might affect that.

I can't see them dropping to 280 (net loss of 37 seats v. 2017?). They seem set to take an indeterminate number of Lab seats & their losses to the SNP & Lib Dems might be lower than expected, given the polls.

 

The polls suggest the upper end of that range at the moment, but various factors could reduce the Tory haul drastically:

- Widespread anti-Tory tactical voting (tactical voting favourable to the Tories is mainly already baked in via Farage's partial withdrawal - apart from Scotland, some BP->Con switchers in Lab marginals & a handful of heavily Jewish seats, maybe?)

- High levels of voter registration by young people may work against them....but high levels of registration doesn't necessarily mean high youth turnout & some of those registering will be keen Brexiteers or anti-Corbyn

- Turnout is an imponderable, particularly if there's bad weather: lots of elderly folk staying at home might damage the Tories, but many will have postal votes & it might be other groups (busy family people or disillusioned youth) who don't turn out.

- Events such as an NHS crisis or Boris scandal could harm the Tories....but other events could harm Labour or other parties (e.g. Chief Rabbi today)

 

The exit polls will be the first semi-reliable indicator, I suppose, but even they might not be as reliable as usual given the complexities (e.g. will they take account of differential turnout by age-group, which couldn't be predicted accurately until the day?)

280 is the absolute lowest end - meaning a lot of Lib Dem gains, SNP gains and struggling to make any inroads on Labour - unlikely.

 

I don't buy all this stuff about old people staying at home whatever the weather, we are talking about a generation who grre up without central heating and didn't enjoy any of the first world comfort we have now - if anything it might be the youngsters that stay away due to the cold weather! Chill and watch Netflix or get down to the polling station?

 

The exit poll will be very interesting, they usually do that almost exclusively on "swing" - this time they will also surely have to do some weighting nationwide relating the swing to also the leave and remain votes in the seats they are doing the exit poll in.

[SecretPro]

15 minutes ago, MattP said:

As I thought, he hasn't.

And, contrary to my post earlier reflecting accurately Jeremy Corbyns involvement with Jewish issues - are you able to provide me with firm evidence/statements from JC stating that he is antisemetic?

 

All Zionists want an end to Gaza and Palestine and making comments in favour of violence against innocent people and talking about how 'no war is clean' insinuates as much.

 

The issue I have with pro-israeli stance in respect of Gaza, The West Bank and Palestine is that In the normal world, in history and in every other faith we usually refer to similar issues as 'occupations', 'invasions' and 'crusades' don't you know. Anybody supporting the occupation of palestinian territories on the grounds of zionism is a radicalist if not a racist.

Edited 26 November 2019 by SecretPro

[Jon the Hat]

2 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

And, contrary to my post earlier reflecting accurately Jeremy Corbyns involvement with Jewish issues - are you able to provide me with firm evidence/statements from JC stating that he is antisemetic?

 

All Zionists want an end to Gaza and Palestine and making comments in favour of violence against innocent people and talking about how 'no war is clean' insinuates as much.

 

The issue I have with pro-israeli stance in respect of Gaza, The West Bank and Palestine is that In the normal world, in history and in every other faith we usually refer to similar issues as 'occupations', 'invasions' and 'crusades' don't you know. Anybody supporting the occupation of palestinian territories on the grounds of zionism is a racist.

It’s complete nonsense of course, god given rights to anything always are.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

And, contrary to my post earlier reflecting accurately Jeremy Corbyns involvement with Jewish issues - are you able to provide me with firm evidence/statements from JC stating that he is antisemetic?

 

All Zionists want an end to Gaza and Palestine and making comments in favour of violence against innocent people and talking about how 'no war is clean' insinuates as much.

 

The issue I have with pro-israeli stance in respect of Gaza, The West Bank and Palestine is that In the normal world, in history and in every other faith we usually refer to similar issues as 'occupations', 'invasions' and 'crusades' don't you know. Anybody supporting the occupation of palestinian territories on the grounds of zionism is a racist.

I haven't said Corbyn is an antisemite - I've said he allows it to flourish. I've also said his associations make him unfit to be PM, which they do.

 

All Labour and Tory governments since the 90's have been committed to a two state solution which includes the creation of a Palestinian state, the idea Jeremy Corbyn is some incredible crusader on this is laughable, if anything the groups he has supported has damaged the cause. He has met Hamas and Hizbollah yet never even bothered to meet his own sister party from the Knesset, then you wonder why he is on the end pf these sort of accusations.

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

I don't buy all this stuff about old people staying at home whatever the weather, we are talking about a generation who grre up without central heating and didn't enjoy any of the first world comfort we have now - if anything it might be the youngsters that stay away due to the cold weather! Chill and watch Netflix or get down to the polling station?

 

 

No, I don't assume that old people will stay at home either, as I said. Normally, a higher proportion of the elderly vote than other age-groups - and some will have postal votes, anyway.

I remember posting on here about my 90-year-old Dad shuffling a long distance (for him) with Parkinson's to vote in the 2015 election - determined to take his final democratic action.

 

But in combination with widespread disillusionment with all parties (in all age-groups), a combination of bad weather, early nightfall & icy pavements could discourage some who are less motivated......but that could apply to other age-groups, too.

 

I hope the yoof on here don't see your comments about their attitudes as you come across like a right old crusty retired colonel! 

Where was it that you served in the Boer War, Matt?! 

[HappyHamza]

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

No, I don't assume that old people will stay at home either, as I said. Normally, a higher proportion of the elderly vote than other age-groups - and some will have postal votes, anyway.

I remember posting on here about my 90-year-old Dad shuffling a long distance (for him) with Parkinson's to vote in the 2015 election - determined to take his final democratic action.

 

But in combination with widespread disillusionment with all parties (in all age-groups), a combination of bad weather, early nightfall & icy pavements could discourage some who are less motivated......but that could apply to other age-groups, too.

 

I hope the yoof on here don't see your comments about their attitudes as you come across like a right old crusty retired colonel! 

Where was it that you served in the Boer War, Matt?! 

I might be naive but I would be surprised of weather played a part, maybe I'm in my own bubble there though as someone who would swin to the pollig station if he had to.

I do remember that about your Dad as well, a lovely memory to have and his faith and belief in the importance of democracy certainly was inherited by you.

[David Guiza]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50554214 

 

General election 2019: Child poverty 'will rise' under Conservative plans

Child poverty risks reaching a record high under the Conservatives, according to a Resolution Foundation report.

The party's manifesto does not propose changes to existing benefit policy and, as a result, relative child poverty could reach a 60-year high of 34% by 2023-4, the think tank said.

But none of the three main party manifestos would reduce child poverty from its current rate of 29.6% by then.

The Tories said they were committed to tackling child poverty.

The report, which was published on Tuesday, said: "It is notable that both the Labour and Liberal Democrat approaches could be expected to halt potential increases in relative child poverty over the next Parliament.

"We forecast that under current policy plans (ie the Conservative package) child poverty will rise from 29.6% in 2017-18 to 34.4% in 2023-24."

[StanSP]

30 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

Apparently the leader of one of these groups is regularly against Corbyn as well yet still backs this plan.

 

Says it all. 

[lgfualol]

34 minutes ago, HappyHamza said:

We're fed up of experts!!1!!

[David Guiza]

Muslim Council of Britain stands by Chief Rabbi, but also calls on people to vote with their conscience regarding Islamophobia in the Tory party. 

 

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1199287374234243074 

 

[lgfualol]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/labour-campaigner-assault-arrest-election-hellaby-rotherham-yorkshire-a9216646.html

 

How mental do you have to be to deck a pensioner just because they have differing views. Think another Labour supporting pensioner got battered too. 

 

Scary times.

[FerrisBueller]

6 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/labour-campaigner-assault-arrest-election-hellaby-rotherham-yorkshire-a9216646.html

 

How mental do you have to be to deck a pensioner just because they have differing views. Think another Labour supporting pensioner got battered too. 

 

Scary times.

You should see all the gammons defending it on facebook, 'just goes to show' etc, madness.

[leicsmac]

15 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/labour-campaigner-assault-arrest-election-hellaby-rotherham-yorkshire-a9216646.html

 

How mental do you have to be to deck a pensioner just because they have differing views. Think another Labour supporting pensioner got battered too. 

 

Scary times.

 

8 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

You should see all the gammons defending it on facebook, 'just goes to show' etc, madness.

Sadly these appear to be the times we live in where the political has become so polarised and personal.

[Guest MattP]

19 minutes ago, lgfualol said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/labour-campaigner-assault-arrest-election-hellaby-rotherham-yorkshire-a9216646.html

 

How mental do you have to be to deck a pensioner just because they have differing views. Think another Labour supporting pensioner got battered too. 

 

Scary times.

Absolutely horrific.

 

Anyone who attacks someone physically over their political views should be sent to prison. Been too soft on people like this for too long and this will be the consequence.

[RoboFox]

Tory liar caught lying, then it backfires spectacularly. Wonderful viewing. What a moron.

 

 

Edited 26 November 2019 by RoboFox

[lgfualol]

24 minutes ago, RoboFox said:

Tory liar caught lying, then it backfires spectacularly. Wonderful viewing. What a moron.

 

 

I feel like people are not focusing on the fact this Tory bloke wants to put people in labour camps. Wtf.

First time I have heard of this anyway.

Edited 26 November 2019 by lgfualol

[RoboFox]

"Not in front of the cameras, it's not on..." says Dominic Raab to a grieving father who just wants to see justice for the death of his son. Good old compassionate conservatism.

 

Look at his face, contorted with anger. A stunning lack of empathy. Along with Rees-Mogg and Patel, it's almost like there's some link developing between being a narcissist and a sociopath and being a hardline brexiteer MP.

 

 

Edited 26 November 2019 by RoboFox

[SecretPro]

Just now, RoboFox said:

"Not in front of the cameras, it's not on..." says Dominic Raab to a grieving father who just wants to see justice for the death of his son. Good old compassionate conservatism.

 

Look at his face, contorted with anger. A stunning lack of empathy. It's almost like being a narcissist and a sociopath is a prerequisite to be being a brexiteer MP.

 

 

What an odius scumbag Raab is.

[SecretPro]

From the Muslim Council

 

[RoboFox]

Gove's back on the gear.

 

 

Edited 26 November 2019 by RoboFox

[SecretPro]

39 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

From the Muslim Council

 

@MattP where's your concern and condemnation....

[SecretPro]

Good post from respected journalist, israeli based Jonathan Cook who is a specialist on the Israeli-Palestine conflict on the Politics of Anti-semitism and how Corbyn is being deliberately targetted:

 

https://www.jonathan-cook.net/blog/2019-07-03/plot-corbyn-out-power/

 

Also good to see #JewsForLabour and #BritishJews trending top on twitter with thousands stating clearly that the Rabbi doesn't represent them and that it's a deliberate Political manoeuvre. So much for 'The vast Majority of British Jews'...

Edited 26 November 2019 by SecretPro

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, RoboFox said:

"Not in front of the cameras, it's not on..." says Dominic Raab to a grieving father who just wants to see justice for the death of his son. Good old compassionate conservatism.

 

Look at his face, contorted with anger. A stunning lack of empathy. Along with Rees-Mogg and Patel, it's almost like there's some link developing between being a narcissist and a sociopath and being a hardline brexiteer MP.

 

 

I understand they are upset, and that diplomatic immunity is not fair, but I am not sure what they are trying to achieve really.