FT General Election Poll 2019

[Alf Bentley]

I know this probably won't happen but......

 

There is a slight chance that the Tories could win the election but Boris could lose his seat. So what would happen then?

 

As I understand it, the serving PM has to inform the Queen who can form a govt commanding confidence & should be appointed the new PM. If Boris was no longer in parliament, presumably it couldn't be him - or could it?

He would still be Tory leader unless he resigned. He probably couldn't continue long-term as PM without being in parliament. But could he be appointed Lord Johnson of Uxbridge & be PM based in the Lords?

Maybe some expendable back-bencher in a safe seat would be kicked upstairs to the Lords & Boris would get re-elected as an MP in a by-election?

 

Otherwise, as we have no Deputy PM, the First Secretary of State is nominally second-in-charge......so Dominic Raab, Acting PM? 

But there's also a chance that Raab could lose his seat.....in which case, Sajid Javid, Acting PM?

If a way wasn't found for Boris to get back into parliament quickly to be PM, presumably the Tories would have another leadership contest, as Raab or Javid would lack any party mandate?

 

Won't happen, probably, but it is an oddity. We've never before had a PM who didn't have a safe seat as far as I can recall? Certainly never one who might win an election but lose his seat...

 

[purpleronnie]

Just saw a clip on the bbc, a women saying 'I'm backing boris all the way, he may not be trustworthy but I like him as a person'.

[Alf Bentley]

[Sampson]

 

41 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Think you're better than pictures like that Alf. Not really the same thing is it and I'm certain you know it.

 

I get why Corbyn is being neutral as he's trying his best to please his split party, but you cant be naive enough to think they are really going to be playing hardball and putting the majority of the government's focus to negotiate the best possible deal if they're just going to be putting it to a referendum in which Remain will obviously win, because the Labour deal will just have us staying in the single market and customs union and essentially just being another Norway or Switzerland.

 

I'm a remainer, but Labour's Brexit position is clearly a stitch-up and people can see straight through it. He won't win over the leave Labour voters doing this and it just comes across as dishonest to Remain ones.

 

I don't think he really cares that much about Brexit either way, I think he just wants to put his economic policy forward as a priority, which is fine, but it really doesn't come across like he'll be prioritising the Brexit negotiations above all else and going flat out to get the best possible deal to a leave Labour voter.

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, SecretPro said:

For ****s sake, and this blundering twat is getting a majority? I'm done.

 

 

There is literally no sensible alternative.  Labour should be ashamed of themselves.

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, SecretPro said:

For ****s sake, and this blundering twat is getting a majority? I'm done.

 

 

Absolutely sickening. The pathetic tag line “get Brexit done” is literally all he’s got, and not a shred of integrity.

[Alf Bentley]

17 minutes ago, Sampson said:

 

Think you're better than pictures like that Alf. Not really the same thing is it and I'm certain you know it.

 

I get why Corbyn is being neutral, but you cant be naive enough to think they are really going to be playing hardball and putting the majority of the government's focus to negotiate the best possible deal if they're just going to be putting it to a referendum in which Remain will obviously win, because the Labour deal will just have us staying in the single market and customs union and essentially just being another Norway or Switzerland.

 

I'm a remainer, but Labour's Brexit position is clearly a stitch-up and people can see straight through it. He won't win over the leave Labour voters doing this and it just comes across as dishonest to Remain ones.

 

I don't think he really cares that much about Brexit either way, I think he just wants to put his economic policy forward as a priority, which is fine, but it really doesn't come across like he'll be prioritising the Brexit negotiations above all else and going flat out to get the best possible deal to a leave Labour voter.

 

Not quite the same thing, I agree. To be exactly the same I suppose the ref would have to select the players and tactics for one team - and then act as a neutral ref. 

 

I posted it as a tongue-in-cheek contribution. Firstly, because I found it amusing. Secondly, to challenge the idea that a leader always has to be partisan and leading from the front.

Adopting a role as chairman/facilitator and then unifier, implementing the decision taken by two fiercely divided sides is a perfectly valid form of leadership, though unusual in politics.

 

I'm not naive, though. It's also politically convenient for Corbyn as the leader of a party with about 3/4 of its potential voters in one camp and 1/4 in the other....many fiercely committed on both sides.

A similar thing applies, to a lesser extent, with his party members and MPs, though the pro-Leave minority is smaller than 25% there, I'd say.

 

I partly agree with your final comment. I don't think Brexit is the be-all and end-all for Corbyn. He's probably a Soft Brexiteer by instinct - wants to leave the EU but stay fairly close while having more national power to institute "socialism in one country" as the Stalinist that he is.  He knows he's in a minority at every level in his party, though, so is happy to be over-ruled by the majority - seeing economic/social transformation as more important, as you imply.

 

Hard Left types of Corbyn's generation were mainly Eurosceptic in the 80s, until Delors made the EU more socially-oriented & centre-left in outlook in the 90s. Some Hard Left types became more pro-EU then but others stuck to their original, less flexible view of the EU as just a corporate, capitalist plot preventing socialism on a national level....and some have probably taken events like the hard line on Greece as evidence for that still being the case. Others (like McDonnell, it seems) have criticisms of the EU but are more pragmatic about the need for international approaches to economics/politics. 

 

Would Labour "play hardball" to get the best possible deal for a Labour Leave voter. "Playing hardball" suggests accepting the Right's concept of a nationalist battle with foreign interests. I'm sure Labour's deal would include the Customs Union, which I'd see as beneficial but many Leave voters probably wouldn't. It would also include stronger protection of employment rights, which ought to appeal to Lab-Leave voters. What we'd end up with on Single Market & freedom of movement, I don't know. Overall, I'm sure plenty of Leave voters wouldn't like the Lab Deal overall - but won't like the consequences of the Boris Deal when they see them either. Corbyn has said that his negotiating team would include Leave supporters, by the way.

 

Anyway, I didn't mean to be taken entirely seriously in posting that image. I found it funny and think it's good to challenge what "leadership" is.

Years ago, I remember getting abused by Hard Left union types for opposing a tradition of the executive "recommending" to members which candidates they should vote for. The members needed our "leadership", I was told. I disagreed then and I disagree now. People who support different causes/candidates can recommend them without leaders always having to tell people how to vote.

[Jon the Hat]

If we stayed in the EU under a Corbyn government, he would have huge problems funding his spending plans when the proposed tax increases fail to cover them.  High risk of intervention in that case imo.

[lgfualol]

Looking at the Tory manifesto, lots of lies they will obviously never deliver on but if they do, how do they expect to pay for it all without raising tax/vat/etc?

 

Seems as it is not Labour, everyone is just accepting of a magic money tree.

[Jon the Hat]

1 minute ago, lgfualol said:

Looking at the Tory manifesto, lots of lies they will obviously never deliver on but if they do, how do they expect to pay for it all without raising tax/vat/etc?

 

Seems as it is not Labour, everyone is just accepting of a magic money tree.

Pretty modest spending increases £1 for every £28 labour plan.  You can expect a lot less concern then no?

Seems to me a rather more mature approach to a number of issues.  Nurses for example; an actual plan to increase real numbers by 50,000 through a mix of retention, recruitment and training.  

[SecretPro]

37 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Pretty modest spending increases £1 for every £28 labour plan.  You can expect a lot less concern then no?

Seems to me a rather more mature approach to a number of issues.  Nurses for example; an actual plan to increase real numbers by 50,000 through a mix of retention, recruitment and training.  

Which will bring it back to pre-austerity levels, as it will for the Police and GPs, so Tories are not really giving us anything extra - just putting back what they took away to begin with. Like promising to give free TV licences to the over 75s - the Tories only took them away last year! A case of deliberately cutting so that you can pledge from a weak position and make it look as though you are doing something positive. 

[Jon the Hat]

16 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

Which will bring it back to pre-austerity levels, as it will for the Police and GPs, so Tories are not really giving us anything extra - just putting back what they took away to begin with. Like promising to give free TV licences to the over 75s - the Tories only took them away last year! A case of deliberately cutting so that you can pledge from a weak position and make it look as though you are doing something positive. 

This really isnt the same Government as we had under Theresa May.  Did you miss the carnage of Ministers?  The former Chancellor no longer an MP?  Massive change.

That also isn't really how organisations work.  If you take out resources you are forced to make tough decisions and things evolve.  Adding back those resources enables you to do a lot more, not just go back to square one.  

I would also add that I think adding people is a much better use of cash than simply giving everyone a 5% pay rise.  When you look at why people leave Nursing it is not about money, but about workload and working in a failing organisation.

[Guest Dirkster the Fox]

1 hour ago, SecretPro said:

Which will bring it back to pre-austerity levels, as it will for the Police and GPs, so Tories are not really giving us anything extra - just putting back what they took away to begin with. Like promising to give free TV licences to the over 75s - the Tories only took them away last year! A case of deliberately cutting so that you can pledge from a weak position and make it look as though you are doing something positive. 

They had only 2 choices in 2010 and chose to take the safer of these options, austerity.  Can people please remember the dire financial mess the country was in back then. 

 

Forget partisan views here, whatever reason for the financial mess, the incumbent government in 2010 had two choices, either cut our cloth accordingly (austerity), or adopt Keynesian policies. The later without doubt the greater reward in the short term, but equally with much greater risk, particularly with little buffer to unravel if it failed.   

 

Hate the Tories if you want, but they adopted the safer route and yes its been tough, particularly in the earlier years.  At the time Labour were (in reality) fairly happy to get out of power, they had the blood on their hands (2008-9 economic crash) and knew tough decisions were required.  Also I will add, this was still the much more palatable "New Labour" and not the much harder left wing Labour Party we see today.

 

An example of the difference between the Labour Party of then and now, the well respected Alastair Darling was doing his best to manage an unravelling dire mess.  This is his quote, not a Tory quote from mid-2008:

 

In an interview in The Guardian published 30 August 2008, Alistair Darling warned, "The economic times we are facing... are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years. And I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought." His blunt warning led to confusion within the Labour Party. However, Darling insisted that it was his duty to be "straight" with people.

 

Darling was only just left of centre, intellectual, seemingly honest enough and spoke with gravitas.  Compare him to the dangerous agitator McDonnell and just in this point you can see the reason why the current Labour Party are unlikely to get back into power. Most people sit roughly in the middle of politics.  New Labour, just left of centre were palatable and got 3 terms.  I just don't think the UK wants to be run by agitating hard left wing momentum.

 

 

[Babylon]

On 22/11/2019 at 16:06, Izzy said:

All this talk of what =‘rich’ is bollux anyway

 

Lots of rich people who are stressed, unhappy and just buy expensive shit to try and feel better about themselves 

 

What you wanna be is ‘time rich’ instead - it’s Fvckin great 

 

Conservatives will try and tax you for the time you aren't working next 

[Babylon]

11 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Absolutely sickening. The pathetic tag line “get Brexit done” is literally all he’s got, and not a shred of integrity.

I went back onto facebook the other day to retrieve some old photos, it's filled with people spouting "back Boris, get Brexit done"... obviously it's working with the feeble minded. 

[Shane]

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bbc-caught-up-in-another-editing-scandal/24/11/

 

BBC caught up in another editing scandal

The broadcasting corporation has been accused of editing audience reactions to show them clapping rather than laughing.

[SecretPro]

13 minutes ago, Shane said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bbc-caught-up-in-another-editing-scandal/24/11/

 

BBC caught up in another editing scandal

The broadcasting corporation has been accused of editing audience reactions to show them clapping rather than laughing.

The BBC have plenty to worry about, judging by John Sweeney now blowing the whistle:

 

https://www.johnsweeney.co.uk/?p=letter.to.ofcom

[Guest MattP]

13 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

I know this probably won't happen but......

 

There is a slight chance that the Tories could win the election but Boris could lose his seat. So what would happen then?

 

As I understand it, the serving PM has to inform the Queen who can form a govt commanding confidence & should be appointed the new PM. If Boris was no longer in parliament, presumably it couldn't be him - or could it?

He would still be Tory leader unless he resigned. He probably couldn't continue long-term as PM without being in parliament. But could he be appointed Lord Johnson of Uxbridge & be PM based in the Lords?

Maybe some expendable back-bencher in a safe seat would be kicked upstairs to the Lords & Boris would get re-elected as an MP in a by-election?

 

Otherwise, as we have no Deputy PM, the First Secretary of State is nominally second-in-charge......so Dominic Raab, Acting PM? 

But there's also a chance that Raab could lose his seat.....in which case, Sajid Javid, Acting PM?

If a way wasn't found for Boris to get back into parliament quickly to be PM, presumably the Tories would have another leadership contest, as Raab or Javid would lack any party mandate?

 

Won't happen, probably, but it is an oddity. We've never before had a PM who didn't have a safe seat as far as I can recall? Certainly never one who might win an election but lose his seat...

If the Tories can't get over the line in Uxbridge then their is surely no way the are getting an overall majority. I the sing from Lab > Lib happens which is expected he should be increasing his majority rather than losing it.

 

But yeah - I wouldn't want Johnson being PM if he hasn't held his seat, Priti Patel is the home sec and she is quite capable of stepping up to be Prime Minister to get the Brexit done if Boris does fail before the January deadline. 

 

Some of the constituency polling is incredible - Raab and IDS in trouble in safe Tory seats, Conservative set to sweep Stoke, win in Grimsby and Bolsover. This could finally be the election where the political landscape changes and class is no longer an issue.

 

If the Tories do win a majority this image will be the iconic one of it. They've even used it for the manifesto cover.

[Jimothy]

23 minutes ago, Shane said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bbc-caught-up-in-another-editing-scandal/24/11/

 

BBC caught up in another editing scandal

The broadcasting corporation has been accused of editing audience reactions to show them clapping rather than laughing.

 

9 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

The BBC have plenty to worry about, judging by John Sweeney now blowing the whistle:

 

https://www.johnsweeney.co.uk/?p=letter.to.ofcom

Bloody left wing biased BBC eh 

[David Guiza]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the Tories can't get over the line in Uxbridge then their is surely no way the are getting an overall majority. I the sing from Lab > Lib happens which is expected he should be increasing his majority rather than losing it.

 

But yeah - I wouldn't want Johnson being PM if he hasn't held his seat, Priti Patel is the home sec and she is quite capable of stepping up to be Prime Minister to get the Brexit done if Boris does fail before the January deadline. 

 

Some of the constituency polling is incredible - Raab and IDS in trouble in safe Tory seats, Conservative set to sweep Stoke, win in Grimsby and Bolsover. This could finally be the election where the political landscape changes and class is no longer an issue.

 

If the Tories do win a majority this image will be the iconic one of it. They've even used it for the manifesto cover.

 

Class is still a huge issue, the only difference this time around is that the Tories could put a chimp forwards so long as he promised to get Brexit done and the majority would vote for that in areas like Grimsby and Stoke. That's not me saying that they're thick, just that that almost 70% in both those places voted for Brexit and that's Boris' main (or only) point of attack. 

 

That said, here is a Leave voter in Stoke from a few months back. Won't anybody find him somebody to love?

 

https://twitter.com/zzybeliso/status/1176461411083542528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1176461411083542528&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hitc.com%2Fen-gb%2F2019%2F09%2F24%2Fjoris-bohnson-news-clip-video-twitter-reactions-meme%2F 

 

 

 

 

[Tommo220]

1 hour ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

They had only 2 choices in 2010 and chose to take the safer of these options, austerity.  Can people please remember the dire financial mess the country was in back then. 

 

Forget partisan views here, whatever reason for the financial mess, the incumbent government in 2010 had two choices, either cut our cloth accordingly (austerity), or adopt Keynesian policies. The later without doubt the greater reward in the short term, but equally with much greater risk, particularly with little buffer to unravel if it failed.   

 

Hate the Tories if you want, but they adopted the safer route and yes its been tough, particularly in the earlier years.  At the time Labour were (in reality) fairly happy to get out of power, they had the blood on their hands (2008-9 economic crash) and knew tough decisions were required.  Also I will add, this was still the much more palatable "New Labour" and not the much harder left wing Labour Party we see today.

 

An example of the difference between the Labour Party of then and now, the well respected Alastair Darling was doing his best to manage an unravelling dire mess.  This is his quote, not a Tory quote from mid-2008:

 

In an interview in The Guardian published 30 August 2008, Alistair Darling warned, "The economic times we are facing... are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years. And I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought." His blunt warning led to confusion within the Labour Party. However, Darling insisted that it was his duty to be "straight" with people.

 

Darling was only just left of centre, intellectual, seemingly honest enough and spoke with gravitas.  Compare him to the dangerous agitator McDonnell and just in this point you can see the reason why the current Labour Party are unlikely to get back into power. Most people sit roughly in the middle of politics.  New Labour, just left of centre were palatable and got 3 terms.  I just don't think the UK wants to be run by agitating hard left wing momentum.

 

 

What are your thoughts on the effect on growth that the last decade of Austerity has had?  

 

Keynesian policies are, in my opinion at least, exactly how we should have been operating - i.e. in the good times, the state takes a back seat and reigns in spending, limiting budget deficits and allowing the private sector to drive economic growth, then during periods of recession/uncertainty, get their cheque book out and drive growth when private businesses are not willing to.  This approach served us well through the great depression, Wars etc. 

 

In our economic position (as a nation), i don't really agree that it was necessarily a "much greater risk".  It's important to remember with this, that government spending and fiscal policy is not the same as managing our personal finances.

 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Class is still a huge issue, the only difference this time around is that the Tories could put a chimp forwards so long as he promised to get Brexit done and the majority would vote for that in areas like Grimsby and Stoke. That's not me saying that they're thick, just that that almost 70% in both those places voted for Brexit and that's Boris' main (or only) point of attack. 

I don't think it is at all anymore.

 

Let's not forget at the last election the Tories won Mansfield and Labour won Kensington and Canterbury.

 

This has been closing for years anyway (remember Thornberry and her mocking of the St George's flag under Militand) Brexit just seems to have sped it up. 

[Alf Bentley]

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

If the Tories can't get over the line in Uxbridge then their is surely no way the are getting an overall majority. I the sing from Lab > Lib happens which is expected he should be increasing his majority rather than losing it.

 

I agree with your assessment, though a constituency poll only had him narrowly ahead & I'm sure Labour activists will be out in force.

So if there was a lot of tactical voting .....would need to be LD->Lab in Uxbridge, though, and fewer LDs are prepared to switch than Labour.

 

I just want the odd hope to cling onto, as it could be a depressing night otherwise! 

 

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

But yeah - I wouldn't want Johnson being PM if he hasn't held his seat, Priti Patel is the home sec and she is quite capable of stepping up to be Prime Minister to get the Brexit done if Boris does fail before the January deadline.

 

 

[Awaits response from irate lefties]

 

28 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Some of the constituency polling is incredible - Raab and IDS in trouble in safe Tory seats, Conservative set to sweep Stoke, win in Grimsby and Bolsover. This could finally be the election where the political landscape changes and class is no longer an issue.

 

 

Yes, results are likely to vary wildly between regions - and possibly even neighbouring seats - depending on various factors. 

 

I hope the people compiling the exit polls are doing a very thorough, careful job to take that into account or they could easily end up with egg on their faces.

I'm sure they are. They've been pretty impressive in recent elections.

 

I don't see class ceasing to be an issue, though. Indeed, if the Tories do sweep the North/Midlands, in a way it'll be because of class issues - working-class & post-industrial communities feeling abandoned & unrepresented by successive govts, not relating to Corbyn, but mainly using Brexit as a way of either remedying their situation or just kicking back at those seen as responsible for their abandonment, insecurity & powerlessness.

 

Where such voters go in future if Brexit doesn't improve their lives - or makes them worse via economic problems & renewed austerity - is unclear.

A well-run Labour Party that promoted the right policies might win them back, but that's far from inevitable. Under that scenario, there'd be a definite opportunity for the Far Right.

That's what happened in France to a large extent: the LePen vote is particularly strong in areas where old industries closed down (North, Lorraine, Paris satellite towns, Marseille sprawl). A lot of LePen voters used to support the French Communists.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

1 hour ago, Shane said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bbc-caught-up-in-another-editing-scandal/24/11/

 

BBC caught up in another editing scandal

The broadcasting corporation has been accused of editing audience reactions to show them clapping rather than laughing.

The funny thing about being on the fence when it comes to the major parties is the fact that you can laugh at both sides when they're so absolutely convinced that the BBC is biased against them  

[David Guiza]

34 minutes ago, MattP said:

I don't think it is at all anymore.

 

Let's not forget at the last election the Tories won Mansfield and Labour won Kensington and Canterbury.

 

This has been closing for years anyway (remember Thornberry and her mocking of the St George's flag under Militand) Brexit just seems to have sped it up. 

There's certainly somewhat of a change, but i'm not sure the class values have changed on the whole. The 2017 election was still dominated by Brexit, and people voting Tory to push through a majority Government and 'get Brexit done' or opposition parties to prevent/restrict Brexit. 

 

Mansfield voted 70.9% in favour of Leave. Kensington 68.7% in favour of Remain. There's only Canterbury out of those three that is somewhat of an anomaly. There's certainly a change in the class system and those gaps were certainly dwindling even prior to Brexit, but I think it's fair to say that Brexit is still massive in terms of having an effect on that swing. 

There are also other contributing factors like The Sun turning their back on Labour and the Daily Mail being pro-Tory/Brexit. Out of the 'working class' papers, there's only really the Mirror that offers anything pro-Labour. Most people I work with, and have worked with in the past, look at Mail Online on a daily basis and that is going to have an effect whether it be conscious or not. 

 

I will say that the Tories have done a fantastic job of making Labour out to be the 'elite' and selling Boris as a 'bloke', and if any party can convince the working class to admire people like Jacob Rees-Mogg they've done a good job.