Starmer Next Labour Leader

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Realpolitik at it's best!  Not sure if it is a good thing becuase public pressure can result in quick policy changes, or a bad thing becuase yet more NHS exceptionalism.  At this rate we will be building statues to anyone who ever worked in the NHS, which would mean 3 of my immediate family.  Not sure they would expect or want that.

I doubt you'd find many who'd want that, and I'm completely with you on the kind of token gestures which are about "being seen to be paying tribute" rather than actually helping people practically. You can't class something which is going to help ease the financial burden of countless healthcare workers in their day to day lives in that category though.

[Bilo]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

Or you might not,  Imo this is going to die down pretty quickly;  The question will be how well the economy bounces back, and a Boris / Sunak double act might do very well at that bit.  Brexit deal (maybe not this year) and FTA with the US and Canada among others, and his stock could be pretty high by the next election.  Whether he wants to fight it might be a different question.  I think he probably would.

I admire your optimism, but with u-turns, falling personal approval ratings, growing discontent in the Tory ranks, the worst recession in 300 years on the horizon and Brexit talks going from bad to worse it doesn't seem to be backed up by the reality on the ground. 

 

Sunak is the sole Tory minister whose stock has improved thanks to furlough and small business support, but with those same small businesses imminently being asked to contribute to furlough and the loans needing to be paid back at some stage it might not last. Especially in the context of a recession caused by Covid and then exacerbated by a reckless Brexit. 

 

Then we have the inevitable public inquiry that'll undoubtedly have casualties at the highest levels. Given Johnson's record of absenteeism, infamously poor work ethic and lack of grasp of the detail even in good circumstances, it seems fanciful to assume he'll come out of it positively.

 

This is not to say the odds favour Labour in 2024, it's still going to take a seismic electoral turnaround, but the Tory Party is renowned for its ruthlessness towards failing leaders. There's little doubt that Johnson has to work an awful lot harder than his reputation suggests to avoid falling into that category. The times where he could get away with phoning it in because the opposition leader was useless and the domestic situation was largely ticking over are long gone.

[CosbehFox]

10 hours ago, Bilo said:

That voice and seemingly a head full of rocks though...

And supports Villa 

[Bilo]

14 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

And supports Villa 

Just when you think it couldn't get any worse.

 

She comes across as someone who thinks being ostentatiously right-wing is a substitute for actually having a personality. 

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Bilo said:

I admire your optimism, but with u-turns, falling personal approval ratings, growing discontent in the Tory ranks, the worst recession in 300 years on the horizon and Brexit talks going from bad to worse it doesn't seem to be backed up by the reality on the ground.  

Ignoring all the other apocalyptic predictions, you are again looking at Brexit through the prism of voting remain.

 

Our Brexit position is now pretty much EXACTLY what people who voted for him want, us making an offer, willing to make reasonable concessions but having a genuine threat of walking away if we don't get them - thus hopefully securing something at the last minute which is standard with any negotiation involving the EU. I doubt a single leave voter in the country at the minute thinks Brexit talks are going badly.

 

Had parliament actually done its job and done this in the first place (even if they had to agree it in secret behind closed doors) we wouldn't have Boris or a big Tory majority now.

 

Whether he stands in 2024 I don't know but he won't be shifted out by backbenchers, they don't get rid of serial election winners who turn red seats blue unless polling is so disastrous and if it is he probably goes at his own accord, I'm sure Johnson will do better in the campaign by Starmer but if he's 10 pts behind he probably could hand over.

 

Labour made the mistake of underestimating Johnson in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2019 - you can sure they'll do it again.

 

Biggest piece of advice I can give to Starmer supporters at the minute is Boris isn't actually interested in winning the votes of social workers in Camden or teachers in Brent, he's got to consolidate the white working class in Wales, the Midlands and the North - if they are still on side he wins again.

[Guest MattP]

Of course polling won't tell you the whole story either. No point Starmer getting to 40% if it's all just converted Lib Dems or more votes in Urbsn areas.

 

This is a point @Alf Bentley makes at every election, Labour voters on Twitter getting extremely excited at massive queues in North London polling stations just aren't relevant to the overall result.

 

With the new boundary changes its feasible a Tory majority could return on just a 2/3pt poll lead.

[Alf Bentley]

37 minutes ago, MattP said:

Of course polling won't tell you the whole story either. No point Starmer getting to 40% if it's all just converted Lib Dems or more votes in Urbsn areas.

 

This is a point @Alf Bentley makes at every election, Labour voters on Twitter getting extremely excited at massive queues in North London polling stations just aren't relevant to the overall result.

 

With the new boundary changes its feasible a Tory majority could return on just a 2/3pt poll lead.

 

I don't disagree. But hopefully the one thing sane people of all persuasions can agree on is that 4 years is a very long time.

 

A lot - even more than usual - will change over 4 years: Govt response to Covid, knock-on effects & judgments thereupon; Brexit and reaction thereto; state of the economy and blame/credit assigned for performance; tax & spending post-crisis; potential trade deals & whether they're seen as good or rubbish; actions and misdeeds of BJ; plus "events, dear boy, events" ......

 

All Labour & Starmer can do for now is to slowly build a good reputation in various ways and chip away at the reputation of BJ & the Tories.....which is what he's doing very well so far.....but very early days.

 

I liked my football analogy: what Starmer's achieving so far is the equivalent of Pearson transforming LCFC into a side that won a fair few matches in the Championship, had potential & stood a chance of making the play-offs.....he's not got Labour into the PL yet, never mind winning the PL title and achieving European status.

 

Edited 22 May 2020 by Alf Bentley

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, Bilo said:

I admire your optimism, but with u-turns, falling personal approval ratings, growing discontent in the Tory ranks, the worst recession in 300 years on the horizon and Brexit talks going from bad to worse it doesn't seem to be backed up by the reality on the ground. 

 

Sunak is the sole Tory minister whose stock has improved thanks to furlough and small business support, but with those same small businesses imminently being asked to contribute to furlough and the loans needing to be paid back at some stage it might not last. Especially in the context of a recession caused by Covid and then exacerbated by a reckless Brexit. 

 

Then we have the inevitable public inquiry that'll undoubtedly have casualties at the highest levels. Given Johnson's record of absenteeism, infamously poor work ethic and lack of grasp of the detail even in good circumstances, it seems fanciful to assume he'll come out of it positively.

 

This is not to say the odds favour Labour in 2024, it's still going to take a seismic electoral turnaround, but the Tory Party is renowned for its ruthlessness towards failing leaders. There's little doubt that Johnson has to work an awful lot harder than his reputation suggests to avoid falling into that category. The times where he could get away with phoning it in because the opposition leader was useless and the domestic situation was largely ticking over are long gone.

Breixt talks are going great!  The EU just needs to realise it isn't 2018 anymore dealing with Therea May, we aren't going to sign a deal which breaches our principles, and we are perfectly willing to move to WTo terms on the 1st Jan next year I don't see why we can;t have a trade deal which is basically what they offered previously in Canada+ before backing off.

[Bilo]

13 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Breixt talks are going great!  The EU just needs to realise it isn't 2018 anymore dealing with Therea May, we aren't going to sign a deal which breaches our principles, and we are perfectly willing to move to WTo terms on the 1st Jan next year I don't see why we can;t have a trade deal which is basically what they offered previously in Canada+ before backing off.

How is a deal designed for a country on the other side of the Atlantic going to work for a country 20 miles away from the EU? 

 

I would advise against getting excited about a WTO deal as well, the organisation has been absolutely ravaged by this pandemic. 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Bilo said:

How is a deal designed for a country on the other side of the Atlantic going to work for a country 20 miles away from the EU? 

 

I would advise against getting excited about a WTO deal as well, the organisation has been absolutely ravaged by this pandemic. 

As long as the EU realise we are serious this time we are in a better position in terms of negotiation than we were at any stage under the last leadership.

 

There is no contingent of Grieve, Cable and Lammy this time taking the Eurostar to Brussels to tell them if we don't accept it's a ever extending of A50. More fool them if they believed the second referendum mob that the British public had changed it's mind.

 

This is it, negotiate and give ground or its WTO terms.

[Bilo]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Ignoring all the other apocalyptic predictions, you are again looking at Brexit through the prism of voting remain.

 

Our Brexit position is now pretty much EXACTLY what people who voted for him want, us making an offer, willing to make reasonable concessions but having a genuine threat of walking away if we don't get them - thus hopefully securing something at the last minute which is standard with any negotiation involving the EU. I doubt a single leave voter in the country at the minute thinks Brexit talks are going badly.

 

Had parliament actually done its job and done this in the first place (even if they had to agree it in secret behind closed doors) we wouldn't have Boris or a big Tory majority now.

 

Whether he stands in 2024 I don't know but he won't be shifted out by backbenchers, they don't get rid of serial election winners who turn red seats blue unless polling is so disastrous and if it is he probably goes at his own accord, I'm sure Johnson will do better in the campaign by Starmer but if he's 10 pts behind he probably could hand over.

 

Labour made the mistake of underestimating Johnson in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2019 - you can sure they'll do it again.

 

Biggest piece of advice I can give to Starmer supporters at the minute is Boris isn't actually interested in winning the votes of social workers in Camden or teachers in Brent, he's got to consolidate the white working class in Wales, the Midlands and the North - if they are still on side he wins again.

The 'apocalyptic predictions' are evidence based, and if the government ignore them as readily as you do, the country is in very serious trouble- never mind Johnson. 

 

The concept of a No Deal Brexit where we walk away from negotiations and show those pesky foreigns that bulldog spirit might excite Leavers, but the consequences of it mean we move from concept to reality. There is little reason to be optimistic about a WTO Brexit, on top of a massive recession and a WTO that's in chaos, other than blind hope and devotion to an idealistic vision of Brexit. 

 

The reality is that Johnson has led a charmed life electorally, having faced Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn at major elections, and deciding at the eleventh hour to back a Brexit that Murdoch's rags desperately wanted. This situation is massively different and more difficult than anything else he's ever faced.

 

Thinking he's going to be OK because he's telling Barnier to **** off and Dave from Nuneaton thinks he's great probably simplifies the challenges ahead. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

If Labour could lose the looney left, I reckon they could take a good chunk of the working class votes back.

[fuchsntf]

21 hours ago, MattP said:

Yesterday was a pretty good example. Boris gave an answer that took away the script Starmer had and he stumbled through the next few minutes, speaking like an Englishman trying to ask a question to a Spanish waiter. 

 

All this Sun Tzu talk might be true, he might be brilliant, but given his Brexit policy over the past 18 months was a major reason for the biggest defeat his party has suffered over since 1935 it might be wise to hold off on him being a strategic genius who never picks a fight he doesn't win just yet.

 

Some of the Starmer fans are already starting to mirror the Corbynistas in a weird devotion based on very little thus far.

But BJ..has spent years bumbling....In fact the last 20+ years ist become the norm for alot of our UK leaders...

Edited 22 May 2020 by fuchsntf

[Bilo]

5 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

If Labour could lose the looney left, I reckon they could take a good chunk of the working class votes back.

The sentiment of the tweet is great and will play well with working-class voters.

 

Then you see a reply thread pull of Palestine flags and want to smash your own face off.

[Guest MattP]

28 minutes ago, Bilo said:

The 'apocalyptic predictions' are evidence based, and if the government ignore them as readily as you do, the country is in very serious trouble- never mind Johnson. 

 

The concept of a No Deal Brexit where we walk away from negotiations and show those pesky foreigns that bulldog spirit might excite Leavers, but the consequences of it mean we move from concept to reality. There is little reason to be optimistic about a WTO Brexit, on top of a massive recession and a WTO that's in chaos, other than blind hope and devotion to an idealistic vision of Brexit. 

 

The reality is that Johnson has led a charmed life electorally, having faced Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn at major elections, and deciding at the eleventh hour to back a Brexit that Murdoch's rags desperately wanted. This situation is massively different and more difficult than anything else he's ever faced.

 

Thinking he's going to be OK because he's telling Barnier to **** off and Dave from Nuneaton thinks he's great probably simplifies the challenges ahead. 

First of all winning an election as a Conservative candidate in London is far harder than winning a GE against Starmer, I think Boris was about 8/1 when that market started for 2008 as (as per usual) Labour didn't take it seriously.

 

Some of the assertions are fact, some are opinion. None of us know what a no deal Brexit will entail, none of us know if the backbenches will revolt.

 

If avoiding No Deal was that important then Remainers should have voted for the May deal, the second remember crowd and the ERG both went all or nothing and the latter won. I still don't know what the actual strategy was from the remain side to win to this day.

 

It still makes me chuckle looking back at it, Steve Baker had Labour and the SNP in his pocket at times, he got them to vote against the government purdah removal (hard to leave winning with that) and then even had influence in making sure enough voted against the customs union in the indicative votes to get that off the table - he had worked out there was only one result coming in a GE with a Eurosceptic leader.

 

These people were digging their own graves and being played like a fiddle but were so far up their own arse they couldn't see it. 

Edited 22 May 2020 by MattP

[twoleftfeet]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

As long as the EU realise we are serious this time we are in a better position in terms of negotiation than we were at any stage under the last leadership.

 

There is no contingent of Grieve, Cable and Lammy this time taking the Eurostar to Brussels to tell them if we don't accept it's a ever extending of A50. More fool them if they believed the second referendum mob that the British public had changed it's mind.

 

This is it, negotiate and give ground or its WTO terms.

WTO will only ever be a stepping stone to an acceptable trade deal it is not the end goal, a trade deal is.

[BlueSi13]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

Of course polling won't tell you the whole story either. No point Starmer getting to 40% if it's all just converted Lib Dems or more votes in Urbsn areas.

 

This is a point @Alf Bentley makes at every election, Labour voters on Twitter getting extremely excited at massive queues in North London polling stations just aren't relevant to the overall result.

 

With the new boundary changes its feasible a Tory majority could return on just a 2/3pt poll lead.

Precisely, as we've discussed before, losing Scotland makes Labour's task absolutely enormous.

 

The Conservatives gained an 80 seat majority in the last election with an 11.8% poll lead over Labour.  Roles reversed Labour would only get a majority of 8.

 

Sure it's daft talking about election that's still over four years away but it's interesting to see how difficult it will be for Labour.

 

In short they need to absolutely clean up in England and take vast swathes of seats in the South and Midlands.  

 

Considering that the polls show a Conservative lead nearly 4% larger than at the GE, it's going to take a turnaround of biblical proportions to give Labour even a whiff of a majority.  

[Lionator]

2 minutes ago, BlueSi13 said:

Precisely, as we've discussed before, losing Scotland makes Labour's task absolutely enormous.

 

The Conservatives gained an 80 seat majority in the last election with an 11.8% poll lead over Labour.  Roles reversed Labour would only get a majority of 8.

 

Sure it's daft talking about election that's still over four years away but it's interesting to see how difficult it will be for Labour.

 

In short they need to absolutely clean up in England and take vast swathes of seats in the South and Midlands.  

 

Considering that the polls show a Conservative lead nearly 4% larger than at the GE, it's going to take a turnaround of biblical proportions to give Labour even a whiff of a majority.  

Blimey, I knew it was difficult but jeez. I guess some sort of coalition with the SNP-LibDems - PC is the only hope. 

 

Obviously PR would be better lol.

[Finnaldo]

4 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

If Labour could lose the looney left, I reckon they could take a good chunk of the working class votes back.

I couldn’t click the link faster on that just to see the comments and I wasn’t disappointed  

Edited 22 May 2020 by Finnaldo

[Guest Markyblue]

4 hours ago, Bilo said:

The sentiment of the tweet is great and will play well with working-class voters.

 

Then you see a reply thread pull of Palestine flags and want to smash your own face off.

This is the problem labour have , appealing to working class voters like me will almost certainly cause problems with the metropolitan elite, they have to get both on board to win elections and i can't see how they do it. Months of hard work can disappear with one Emily sneering flag comment. 

[Guest MattP]

4 hours ago, Bilo said:

The sentiment of the tweet is great and will play well with working-class voters.

 

Then you see a reply thread pull of Palestine flags and want to smash your own face off.

It's mental isnt it?

 

Corbyn should be strung up and hung for what he attracted to this party, the Labour movement has never been "anti-British" in the way they thought it was.

 

Clement Attlee, Ramsay McDonald, Arthur Henderson (little known this guy and if you have never read about him do so, in my top five British politicians) Tony Blair, Harold Wilson were all patriots.

 

Do these people not know that whilst it has had elements of Soviet bias among it's hard left, barely anybody at the top or in the mainstream was ever anti-Britain, anti-NATO, anti flag etc - Attlee was an ill man who turned up to carry Churchill's coffin - he was nothing like Jeremy Corbyn.

[Bilo]

44 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's mental isnt it?

 

Corbyn should be strung up and hung for what he attracted to this party, the Labour movement has never been "anti-British" in the way they thought it was.

 

Clement Attlee, Ramsay McDonald, Arthur Henderson (little known this guy and if you have never read about him do so, in my top five British politicians) Tony Blair, Harold Wilson were all patriots.

 

Do these people not know that whilst it has had elements of Soviet bias among it's hard left, barely anybody at the top or in the mainstream was ever anti-Britain, anti-NATO, anti flag etc - Attlee was an ill man who turned up to carry Churchill's coffin - he was nothing like Jeremy Corbyn.

Attlee was a patriot and an extremely intelligent man who abhorred platitudes and populism. He'd have despised Corbynistas. 

 

I personally rate Attlee as our greatest 20th century politician ahead even of Churchill, and the likes of Blair and Wilson are head and shoulders above almost all modern Labour politicians.

 

To see Blair attract more hatred from Corbots than any Tory I'm aware of, including Thatcher, is absolutely bizarre. 

Edited 22 May 2020 by Bilo

[Bilo]

1 hour ago, Markyblue said:

This is the problem labour have , appealing to working class voters like me will almost certainly cause problems with the metropolitan elite, they have to get both on board to win elections and i can't see how they do it. Months of hard work can disappear with one Emily sneering flag comment. 

The upside is that Momentum have done what hard-left movements always do and turn on each other, so this, combined with Starmer's clever all-encompassing approach to leadership rather than descending into petty factionalism should see the real nutters marginalised and simply laughed at on Twitter. 

[Guest Markyblue]

4 minutes ago, Bilo said:

The upside is that Momentum have done what hard-left movements always do and turn on each other, so this, combined with Starmer's clever all-encompassing approach to leadership rather than descending into petty factionalism should see the real nutters marginalised and simply laughed at on Twitter. 

We need a proper opposition its good for democracy. Time will tell.

[Bilo]

3 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

We need a proper opposition its good for democracy. Time will tell.

I do get the impression that he is, at least, going to ensure that the likes of Lavery, Abbott and Burgon are going to be kept as far as possible from interviews to represent the party.

 

Similarly, there'll be no more Momentum control of party structures either. It makes far more sense to have a broad church than the vassal of hard-left student politics it was between 2017 and 2019 when Momentum bloc voting got them exactly what they wanted.