Ukraine

[Lionator]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

This makes it sound like Russian victory is pretty much an inevitability.

 

Let's sincerely hope that isn't the case.

And this was the original point of what the Czech politician was saying. 

[Zear0]

6 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

This makes it sound like Russian victory is pretty much an inevitability.

 

Let's sincerely hope that isn't the case.

I was always optimistic for Ukraine but I suspect a massive defeat is coming sooner rather than later.

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

I was always optimistic for Ukraine but I suspect a massive defeat is coming sooner rather than later.

I guess we'll find out.

 

Nothing personal, but let's hope that you are wrong.

[Zear0]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I guess we'll find out.

 

Nothing personal, but let's hope that you are wrong.

Me too

[Lionator]

37 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

I was always optimistic for Ukraine but I suspect a massive defeat is coming sooner rather than later.

It won’t be a massive defeat unless something catastrophic happens (complete collapse of lines) which is very unlikely. It will be a war of attrition, they risk losing Kharkiv long term. Unless Russia really fancy a 10-15 year war, Kyiv is safe. But the idea of them getting Crimea back let alone Donetsk and Luhansk is basically zero at this point. 

[Lionator]

This whole Kharkiv thing has come about because of corruption in the Ukrainian ranks. There were supposed to be fortifications on the border and they never appeared.

 

https://english.nv.ua/nation/anti-corruption-activist-exposes-suspicious-wood-supply-contracts-for-fortifications-in-kharkiv-obla-50418691.html

[LiberalFox]

This is like reading a match day thread. 

 

Russia has the initiative at the moment because Putin has been more successful than anticipated in finding volunteers for the Russian army while Ukraine has been trying to avoid changing its draft laws and that's led to Russia gaining a manpower advantage. 

 

Meanwhile the delays in US aid and US/EU lethargy in ramping up ammo production has given the Russians an advantage in artillery. So it's allowed Russia to start making some advances and we might be seeing the beginning of a major offensive on Kharkiv or that may be designed to stretch the front line further and allow more fans in the Donbass. 

 

It's really impossible to accurately predict the course of the war or how it will end. If Ukraine can find the right balance with its draft law then it would be able to solve its manpower issues and give fatigued units the chance to rotate. It's also expected that towards the end of the year Western production will really start to ramp up as many newly built facilities go online in the US. I doubt the outcome of the US election will actually influence US foreign policy despite Trump's bluster because the war is great for the US interests. 

 

There's obviously a danger of some sort of collapse of the Ukrainian lines or general morale although it should be noted that Russia has proven incapable of conducting any successful operational level advances since the first few months of the war. Most people don't expect Russia to be capable of taking Kharkiv. 

 

Long term Russia is going to find it harder and harder to replace its materiel losses because a lot of the stuff they are producing is taking soviet era stuff out of storage and refurbishing that. Eventually those stocks start to run out. 

[Lionator]

17 hours ago, LiberalFox said:

This is like reading a match day thread. 

 

Russia has the initiative at the moment because Putin has been more successful than anticipated in finding volunteers for the Russian army while Ukraine has been trying to avoid changing its draft laws and that's led to Russia gaining a manpower advantage. 

 

Meanwhile the delays in US aid and US/EU lethargy in ramping up ammo production has given the Russians an advantage in artillery. So it's allowed Russia to start making some advances and we might be seeing the beginning of a major offensive on Kharkiv or that may be designed to stretch the front line further and allow more fans in the Donbass. 

 

It's really impossible to accurately predict the course of the war or how it will end. If Ukraine can find the right balance with its draft law then it would be able to solve its manpower issues and give fatigued units the chance to rotate. It's also expected that towards the end of the year Western production will really start to ramp up as many newly built facilities go online in the US. I doubt the outcome of the US election will actually influence US foreign policy despite Trump's bluster because the war is great for the US interests. 

 

There's obviously a danger of some sort of collapse of the Ukrainian lines or general morale although it should be noted that Russia has proven incapable of conducting any successful operational level advances since the first few months of the war. Most people don't expect Russia to be capable of taking Kharkiv. 

 

Long term Russia is going to find it harder and harder to replace its materiel losses because a lot of the stuff they are producing is taking soviet era stuff out of storage and refurbishing that. Eventually those stocks start to run out. 

Any problem Russia have is surely going to be not as bad as any problem Ukraine have if that makes sense.

 

I know this is Jones (so not popular) but I think he captures a lot well in this tweet.

 

 

[LiberalFox]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

Any problem Russia have is surely going to be not as bad as any problem Ukraine have if that makes sense.

 

I know this is Jones (so not popular) but I think he captures a lot well in this tweet.

 

 

I've found Rob Lee on twitter to be the single best source of information. I've been closely following the war and it's interesting how some traditionally credible sources of information are actually frequently terrible and how some people without traditional forms of credibility are able to prove reliable sources of information. Another useful resource is the presentations put together by Perun on youtube. He explains various concepts in reasonable detail without being completely obtuse. 

 

It's from following these sources that I know Russian advances are currently inevitable because Russia enjoys an advantage in combat power due to greater manpower and artillery. 

 

I suppose the long and short of it is I've probably learned how to do what Owen is suggesting already and so I know what is happening on a strategic level. 

 

I don't really follow sensationalist news media that much and while there can be cheerleading there can also be doomsaying. 

 

It's not correct to say that Ukraine's counteroffensive was a terrible failure because that would require knowing how much materiel and how many casualties occurred on both sides.

 

What would be correct is that the offensive failed to achieve anything greater than tactical level advances which are not relevant to the outcome of the war. 

 

But similarly the Russian winter offensive of last year failed to do that and Russia is yet to achieve that level of success this year though they are the side with the initiative and therefore more likely to achieve that this year. 

 

I don't think the media can replace individual desire to seek a realistic picture combined with enough effort and reasoning to understand how to achieve that. 

 

If you don't have that ability then you are still going to end up consuming content that supports your emotional logic. Hence there's a sudden market for the narrative that Russian victory is inevitable while I would argue that it's hard to see what Russian victory would even look like considering it isn't even the inevitable outcome of Russian military success. 

 

[MarshallForEngland]

On 15/05/2024 at 19:04, FoxesDeb said:

In what way exactly would you say you sympathise with the Russians?

 

Weren't you posting earlier on this thread suggesting we shouldn't believe everything we see about the invasion into Ukraine, because it wasn't as bad as it looked? 

 

Apologies if that wasn't you

 

 

It could well have been me, at least the part about not believing everything in the papers. If you follow sources like the Duran and the various telegram channels that report events on the ground, it is pretty hard not to come to that conclusion. Second part about being not as bad as it looked I'm not sure about as my general impression is that it's probably worse than it looks for most people.

 

I sympathise with Russians on a couple of levels I think. The first is entirely personal; I married into a Russian family and spend most of my time with Russian people. On the whole they are very kind and hospitable and you can't help but warm to them after spending time here. 

 

The second is that I do have some sympathy with Russia's position geopolitically. The border between Ukraine and Russia is only a few hundred miles away from Moscow.  I don't think any other country on earth would be expected to tolerate a military alliance expanding so close to its borders and stationing weapons and troops there. 

 

 

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, MarshallForEngland said:

It could well have been me, at least the part about not believing everything in the papers. If you follow sources like the Duran and the various telegram channels that report events on the ground, it is pretty hard not to come to that conclusion. Second part about being not as bad as it looked I'm not sure about as my general impression is that it's probably worse than it looks for most people.

 

I sympathise with Russians on a couple of levels I think. The first is entirely personal; I married into a Russian family and spend most of my time with Russian people. On the whole they are very kind and hospitable and you can't help but warm to them after spending time here. 

 

The second is that I do have some sympathy with Russia's position geopolitically. The border between Ukraine and Russia is only a few hundred miles away from Moscow.  I don't think any other country on earth would be expected to tolerate a military alliance expanding so close to its borders and stationing weapons and troops there. 

 

 

I think an exception to that would be both the Koreas, depending on one's geopolitical point of view (both of them have "alliances" of sorts backing them, after all).

 

On the overall topic, it would be nice if the cooler, friendlier, kinder and more hospitable heads were to prevail here.

 

 

 

[surrifox]

22 minutes ago, MarshallForEngland said:

It could well have been me, at least the part about not believing everything in the papers. If you follow sources like the Duran and the various telegram channels that report events on the ground, it is pretty hard not to come to that conclusion. Second part about being not as bad as it looked I'm not sure about as my general impression is that it's probably worse than it looks for most people.

 

I sympathise with Russians on a couple of levels I think. The first is entirely personal; I married into a Russian family and spend most of my time with Russian people. On the whole they are very kind and hospitable and you can't help but warm to them after spending time here. 

 

The second is that I do have some sympathy with Russia's position geopolitically. The border between Ukraine and Russia is only a few hundred miles away from Moscow.  I don't think any other country on earth would be expected to tolerate a military alliance expanding so close to its borders and stationing weapons and troops there. 

 

 

So by starting a costly and unnecessary war on a non threatening neighbour Putin has driven two neighbours ( Finland and Sweden ) into the NATO alliance . He has hundreds of miles of additional border with the alliance to worry about . Genius 

[fox_up_north]

I think the truth is in the middle. Russia has a massive numerical advantage but aren't self reliant. Ukraine has a lot of support. You could see a Russian "victory" but how long it takes and at what cost is unclear. 

 

It may well be that Putin is into sunk costs territory and that they do gain some land in Ukraine, at the expense of more NATO neighbours, a fractured relationship with China (who clearly values ties with the West over Russia) and international humiliation. 

[leicsmac]

On China, I think they're engaging in pretty typical self interest by playing all sides to the maximum benefit of themselves. They want to be seen as a major player by showing that they can work the geopolitical system to their own ends.

[MPH]

I do think that it will take a change of leadership in Ukraine for them to agree to any kind of deal,. Zelensky would never agree to ceding even an inch of Ukrainian land, and with the amount of assassination attempts on Zelensky they have had to foil, that might happen sooner rather than later.

[fox_favourite]

I find this statement fascinating in a bizarre way. They are against nuclear war, yet threaten it all the time. They acknowledge sovereignty and territory integrity yet invaded a sovereign country. Against a drawn out conflick, but increase the amount of boots on the ground and intensify bombings. It's interesting how they arrogant this is and how this is for their home audiences who are sheltered from what is actually happening. Where are all the normal people in politics?

Edited 16 May by fox_favourite

[Lionator]

3 hours ago, LiberalFox said:

I've found Rob Lee on twitter to be the single best source of information. I've been closely following the war and it's interesting how some traditionally credible sources of information are actually frequently terrible and how some people without traditional forms of credibility are able to prove reliable sources of information. Another useful resource is the presentations put together by Perun on youtube. He explains various concepts in reasonable detail without being completely obtuse. 

 

It's from following these sources that I know Russian advances are currently inevitable because Russia enjoys an advantage in combat power due to greater manpower and artillery. 

 

I suppose the long and short of it is I've probably learned how to do what Owen is suggesting already and so I know what is happening on a strategic level. 

 

I don't really follow sensationalist news media that much and while there can be cheerleading there can also be doomsaying. 

 

It's not correct to say that Ukraine's counteroffensive was a terrible failure because that would require knowing how much materiel and how many casualties occurred on both sides.

 

What would be correct is that the offensive failed to achieve anything greater than tactical level advances which are not relevant to the outcome of the war. 

 

But similarly the Russian winter offensive of last year failed to do that and Russia is yet to achieve that level of success this year though they are the side with the initiative and therefore more likely to achieve that this year. 

 

I don't think the media can replace individual desire to seek a realistic picture combined with enough effort and reasoning to understand how to achieve that. 

 

If you don't have that ability then you are still going to end up consuming content that supports your emotional logic. Hence there's a sudden market for the narrative that Russian victory is inevitable while I would argue that it's hard to see what Russian victory would even look like considering it isn't even the inevitable outcome of Russian military success. 

 

Rob Lee and Michael Kofman are both great!

[Lionator]

12 minutes ago, fox_favourite said:

I find this statement fascinating in a bizarre way. They are against nuclear war, yet threaten it all the time. They acknowledge sovereignty and territory integrity yet invaded a sovereign country. Against a drawn out conflick, but increase the amount of boots on the ground and intensify bombings. It's interesting how they arrogant this is and how this is for their home audiences who are sheltered from what is actually happening. Where are all the normal people in politics?

It's all for deterrence. Unless you believe Putin is completely irrational, and the evidence indicates he is rational, then you can calculate he probably doesn't want to use his nuclear arsenal and probably only will if another country is marching to Moscow, or if the chances are that he'll be killed if he doesn't (ie murdered by hawks if he cedes Crimea). 

 

Doesn't stop him from rolling out his propagandists to threaten it though. 

 

China are a lot more guarded and responsible when it comes to nukes. I believe they're the only major nuclear country with a non-first use policy. 

[MPH]

 

[st albans fox]

Russia's glide bombs devastating Ukraine's cities on the cheap https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko
 

 

[SpacedX]

12 hours ago, MPH said:

 

 

12 hours ago, MPH said:

 

In a mere three days, nearly 180,014 Crimean Tatars were deported from the peninsula. That's incredible. At the same time, most of the Crimean Tatar men who were fighting in the ranks of the Red Army were demobilised and sent into labour camps in Siberia and in the Ural mountain region. These soldiers were at least released after Stalin’s death in 1953 and allowed to return to their families in their place of exile.

 

I was in Poland last week for a conference and it was strange to think that I was less than 200 miles from the border of a country at the centre of an illegal invasion and a warzone.

 

During my stay I visited the Łódź/Litzmannstadt ghetto. This was the largest Nazi controlled ghetto next to Warsaw, and the second largest in Europe. At Radagast station I saw box carts that they were herded into for transportation to Auschwitz and Chelmno during the 'final solution'. By the time that the death camps were liberated by the allies and the Red Army, only 800 of the Polish Jews and Roma of the 263,000 that passed through it remained.

 

 

Of course the Soviet Union ushered in 37 years of communist rule and so the Polish population was never really free. 

 

The Western investment and European funding that has transformed the lives of so many Polish people is remarkable, however, stray away from the gentrification zones and the toll of the last century is hard to erase... 

 

 

[MPH]

5 hours ago, SpacedX said:

 

In a mere three days, nearly 180,014 Crimean Tatars were deported from the peninsula. That's incredible. At the same time, most of the Crimean Tatar men who were fighting in the ranks of the Red Army were demobilised and sent into labour camps in Siberia and in the Ural mountain region. These soldiers were at least released after Stalin’s death in 1953 and allowed to return to their families in their place of exile.

 

I was in Poland last week for a conference and it was strange to think that I was less than 200 miles from the border of a country at the centre of an illegal invasion and a warzone.

 

During my stay I visited the Łódź/Litzmannstadt ghetto. This was the largest Nazi controlled ghetto next to Warsaw, and the second largest in Europe. At Radagast station I saw box carts that they were herded into for transportation to Auschwitz and Chelmno during the 'final solution'. By the time that the death camps were liberated by the allies and the Red Army, only 800 of the Polish Jews and Roma of the 263,000 that passed through it remained.

 

 

Of course the Soviet Union ushered in 37 years of communist rule and so the Polish population was never really free. 

 

The Western investment and European funding that has transformed the lives of so many Polish people is remarkable, however, stray away from the gentrification zones and the toll of the last century is hard to erase... 

 

 

 

 

that’s very grim to read. still, thank you for sharing..

[Lionator]

How likely do you think this is?

 

 

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Lionator said:

How likely do you think this is?

 

 

Please can we avoid this tin foil hat stuff nonsense ? (Or at least stick it in the tin foil hat conspiracy theory thread ?)

 

Edited 23 May by st albans fox

[leicsmac]

2 hours ago, Lionator said:

How likely do you think this is?

 

 

Not likely.

 

If it was likely then a. There wouldn't be a lid on it politically and b. What would be happening or would have already happened would mimic the movie Threads and every single one of us would really know about it.