UFOs

[String fellow]

The Drake equation provides a way of determining the probability N(c) of us communicating the extra-terrestrials. Carl Sagan mentioned it in his wonderful 'Cosmos' programmes many years ago, I seem to recall. In particular,

N(c) = R(s) x f(p) x n(e) x f(l) x f(i) x f(c) x L(t) x f(e)

where

R(s) = rate of star formation in the Milky Way galaxy,

f(p) = fraction of stars with planets,

n(e) = mean number of planets that could support life per star with planets,

f(l) = fraction of these planets that do develop life,

f(i) = fraction of planets where developed life has intelligence,

f(c) = fraction of planets with intelligent life with communication skills,

L(t) = mean overall length of time during which we will be able to communicate with extra-terrestrials,

f(e) = fraction of extra-terrestrials with English-speaking communication skills.

(The f(e) term is my extra factor, included because most extra-terrestrials seem to speak English, judging by what happens in science fiction!)

Given that we can estimate all of the factors reasonably accurately with the help of the JWT, N(c) must be vanishingly small.

Maybe NASA should be beaming a non-stop radio signal across the galaxy of a dimensionless numerical constant such as pi or e, or the fine structure constant, to let other inhabitants of the Milky Way know that we're here.  

[Daggers]

Having dedicated a fortnight to Starfield - can confirm aliens.

 

Amazingly, 25% of game owners have not got the Into The Starfield achievement (by entering their spaceship and taking off), so can also confirm the level of sheer unquantifiable levels of stupidity on Earth remains worryingly high.

[SpacedX]

 

[reporterpenguin]

I love thinking about this, I’d argue it’s as much a philosophical question as it is scientific. 

 

It seems unimaginable to me that the only life in the universe is on Earth. The numbers already discussed here are to unimaginably large for it to be conceivable that this is the sole planet life has appeared on. It’s the nature of that potential life that is most intriguing to me. If results like those from JWST this week are confirmed, the universe must surely be teeming with life. But that would tell us nothing about the intelligence elsewhere. Once life arises somewhere is it then inevitable that, given enough time, intelligent life will develop? Or is that the bit that is vanishingly rare? Or are there intelligent life forms all across the galaxy and beyond, but they have no chance of developing an understanding their place in the wider cosmos, and will never even dream of leaving their own planet?

 

My feeling is that intelligence is fairly common, and a significant number of those life forms reach a level to where humanity is at now, but intelligence at that level is considerably more fleeting. From that, the chance of two separate space faring civilisations ever becoming aware of each other, let alone meeting, would seem extremely unlikely. Assuming evolution works similarly universe wide it seems the things that have made us successful here are likely needed elsewhere. Unfortunately the aggression and violence of humans has significantly contributed to get us to the point where we are now, and our use of technology now has great destructive potential in its own right. From weapons, climate change, pandemics, and possibly AI, we have a lot of things of our own making that could be our downfall. And despite the billions of year of Earth to this point, it’s only the last hundred years or so we’ve been leaking radio telltales of our technologically advanced civilisation, with those signals reaching a few dozen stars. Assuming a similar pattern elsewhere, how long do these visible signs last before something, be it an asteroid hit or created by life itself, puts an end to these beacons? I wouldn’t fancy a bet that humans will be here in a thousand years time, let alone a million years. Even a million years would still be only 0.0002% of the age of Earth. The odds of another 0.0002% overlapping with us and reaching out? Not great I’d imagine. 

 

The other argument against intelligent life being common I quite like is that the universe just isn’t old enough yet, we may be among the first. Clearly evolution itself needs a long time, but the conditions to even get to that point need time as well. It takes a few generations of stars to seed the galaxy with the abundances of elements we’re made of, and a long time for those to condense out and eventually become a planet that life can begin doing its thing on.

 

Sorry for the long post, it’s something I love to consider very much!

 

Tldr; Life might be common, it might be rare, it might take ages, it might wipe itself out if an asteroid doesn’t beat it to it, and we have no idea whatsoever.

[whoareyaaa]

If Aliens have genetically enegiereed life on this planet then I don't think it would be hard for them to reamin unknown/unseen but we do see things that can't be explained, hence the 1000s of UFO reports, so they could be watching from a far. 

 

That's how I see it.. obviously we evolve but I don't believe we got here by an asteroid hitting the earth or anything like that.

[Trav Le Bleu]

What if humans are the most advanced life in the universe? I mean, someone has to be first. 

 

Doesn't even have to be universe, just galactic would do it. You'd have to be extremely advanced to go Intergalactic...

 

Unless you're the Beastie Boys!

[so1]

10 hours ago, worth_the_wait said:

The thing is ... if we're honest, we still have no real idea how life started on Earth.

 

Scientists can point to all the right conditions being available on Earth for life .... as in temperature, atmospheric pressure, elements/compounds etc ... but how did that "first bit" of life start? 

 

(I'm a bit cynical of the "get all the ingredients in the jam jar, add water, light, temperature, pressure, shake and hey presto .... life!)

 

I'm a believer in the all or nothing theory.     Either life is as common as muck, and there are trillions of life-forms out there in the universe.   Or it's unique, and there was just one "blob" of life and it found its way to Earth ... and we are totally alone and unique.      I'm confident it's not 42.

Always liked the intro of the Ridley Scott movie "Prometheus". It's on YouTube. Seemed just as believable as anything science or religion can come up with.

[so1]

51 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

If Aliens have genetically enegiereed life on this planet then I don't think it would be hard for them to reamin unknown/unseen but we do see things that can't be explained, hence the 1000s of UFO reports, so they could be watching from a far. 

 

That's how I see it.. obviously we evolve but I don't believe we got here by an asteroid hitting the earth or anything like that.

They must be monitoring their experiment ☺️ We are just a glorified ant farm.

[Collymore]

All his talk of space being too big so there for impossible to get anywhere is the wrong mindset in my opinion. It could be that distance and time doesn't exist at all for some advanced civilizations and they look at us primitively imprisoned with our clocks and rulers. Imagine being able to be anywhere at any time you wish! 

[Babylon]

1 hour ago, Collymore said:

All his talk of space being too big so there for impossible to get anywhere is the wrong mindset in my opinion. It could be that distance and time doesn't exist at all for some advanced civilizations and they look at us primitively imprisoned with our clocks and rulers. Imagine being able to be anywhere at any time you wish! 

Someone has watched interstellar 

[Trumpet]

 

On Netflix as of today I believe.

[MPH]

On 15/09/2023 at 14:47, Trav Le Bleu said:

What if humans are the most advanced life in the universe? I mean, someone has to be first. 

 

Doesn't even have to be universe, just galactic would do it. You'd have to be extremely advanced to go Intergalactic...

 

Unless you're the Beastie Boys!

 

 

Mate, we want the generation who decided eating tide pods was a good thing to vote and determine the path of civilization. i wouldn't associate us with the word 'advanced'  

[Trav Le Bleu]

3 hours ago, MPH said:

 

 

Mate, we want the generation who decided eating tide pods was a good thing to vote and determine the path of civilization. i wouldn't associate us with the word 'advanced'  

Most advanced doesn't have to be especially advanced.

 

[Zear0]

22 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Most advanced doesn't have to be especially advanced.

 

I prefer "least stupid" 

[MPH]

US says UFO sightings likely secret military tests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68515515

[SpacedX]

15 hours ago, MPH said:

US says UFO sightings likely secret military tests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68515515

Surely not!? I always thought it was far more feasible that an extra-terrestrial civilisation that had managed to engineer and perfect the technology capable of traversing hundreds of thousands, if not millions of light years of interstellar space in saucer or cigar shaped craft solely to buzz above the skies of places like Bromsgrove, abduct rednecks from trailer parks in Arkansas or mutilate cattle in Texas. This is indeed a major revelation. 

[Zear0]

16 hours ago, MPH said:

US says UFO sightings likely secret military tests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68515515

They would say that 

[samlcfc]

15 hours ago, MPH said:

US says UFO sightings likely secret military tests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68515515

 

Interesting topic, considering the implications.

 

Will have to have a read of the report, but pinning it on pop-culture and misidentifications probably isn't going to quell public interest further to any follow-up report on the more recent stories seen in the media.

 

Skeptics arguing in good faith seem to understand that 95% of witness sightings are likely misidentifications, but their interest instead lies in the seemingly serious interest from professionals working at all levels of government, military evidenced by FOIA'd documents. According to 'whistleblowers' that keep popping up, private companies are also accused of being interested and involved.

 

Considering this, it'd be interesting to know whether this investigating organisation even has the capacity or will to investigate appropriately. Seems like any effort would be a struggle, considering these organisations are historically about as transparent as a brick wall. Sometimes with good reason. 

 

 

[MPH]

20 minutes ago, samlcfc said:

 

Interesting topic, considering the implications.

 

Will have to have a read of the report, but pinning it on pop-culture and misidentifications probably isn't going to quell public interest further to any follow-up report on the more recent stories seen in the media.

 

Skeptics arguing in good faith seem to understand that 95% of witness sightings are likely misidentifications, but their interest instead lies in the seemingly serious interest from professionals working at all levels of government, military evidenced by FOIA'd documents. According to 'whistleblowers' that keep popping up, private companies are also accused of being interested and involved.

 

Considering this, it'd be interesting to know whether this investigating organisation even has the capacity or will to investigate appropriately. Seems like any effort would be a struggle, considering these organisations are historically about as transparent as a brick wall. Sometimes with good reason. 

 

 

 

one thing I don’t understand is why are all the footage of UFOs blurry shaky images?  Why with the increase in tech technology are we not getting clearer images? You’d expect the amount of sightings to go up with the quality of equipment increasing for the amateur enthusiast.  But sightings are going down. There’s plenty of non-military ‘professional’ surveillance equipment out there so how come they are not capturing footage. I’m not buying the conspiracy that military units all over the world are  rushing to these amateur enthusiasts and silencing them and taking their equipment.
 

 

I will add though as a bit of a side note. the human mind has mostly defined Alien life form as walking humanoid shaped figures. But what if it isn’t? What if some have wings or are water based.. and even if they are humanoid in shape, why are we expecting them to be more advanced than us…

Edited 9 March by MPH

[leicsmac]

55 minutes ago, samlcfc said:

 

Interesting topic, considering the implications.

 

Will have to have a read of the report, but pinning it on pop-culture and misidentifications probably isn't going to quell public interest further to any follow-up report on the more recent stories seen in the media.

 

Skeptics arguing in good faith seem to understand that 95% of witness sightings are likely misidentifications, but their interest instead lies in the seemingly serious interest from professionals working at all levels of government, military evidenced by FOIA'd documents. According to 'whistleblowers' that keep popping up, private companies are also accused of being interested and involved.

 

Considering this, it'd be interesting to know whether this investigating organisation even has the capacity or will to investigate appropriately. Seems like any effort would be a struggle, considering these organisations are historically about as transparent as a brick wall. Sometimes with good reason. 

 

 

Fair.

 

But having said all this, which is the more likely possibility?

 

- That the professionals both government and private are interested in these situations because they represent new tech from entities public and private that they know nothing of, might could threaten them and therefore need more information on

 

or

 

- That the professionals have evidence for and are suppressing the knowledge of genuine alien spacecraft who have the technology to travel vast distances to visit us, but then seemingly not the tech to hide from us, or choose not to, for reasons not yet known

 

....?

 

36 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

one thing I don’t understand is why are all the footage of UFOs blurry shaky images?  Why with the increase in tech technology are we not getting clearer images? You’d expect the amount of sightings to go up with the quality of equipment increasing for the amateur enthusiast.  But sightings are going down. There’s plenty of non-military ‘professional’ surveillance equipment out there so how come they are not capturing footage. I’m not buying the conspiracy that military units all over the world are  rushing to these amateur enthusiasts and silencing them and taking their equipment.
 

 

I will add though as a bit of a side note. the human mind has mostly defined Alien life form as walking humanoid shaped figures. But what if it isn’t? What if some have wings or are water based.. and even if they are humanoid in shape, why are we expecting them to be more advanced than us…

If they are going to have mastered interstellar travel, they will as a matter of course be further along the tech tree than we are.

 

But the first sentence is spot on. Reminds me of a conversation from the movie Sphere: "We always assume these creatures will be green, or insect-like, but basically human. But what if they inhale air and exhale cyanide gas? It's perfectly plausible."

[samlcfc]

28 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

one thing I don’t understand is why are all the footage of UFOs blurry shaky images?  Why with the increase in tech technology are we not getting clearer images? You’d expect the amount of sightings to go up with the quality of equipment increasing for the amateur enthusiast.  But sightings are going down. There’s plenty of non-military ‘professional’ surveillance equipment out there so how come they are not capturing footage. I’m not buying the conspiracy that military units all over the world are  rushing to these amateur enthusiasts and silencing them and taking their equipment.
 

 

I will add though as a bit of a side note. the human mind has mostly defined Alien life form as walking humanoid shaped figures. But what if it isn’t? What if some have wings or are water based.. and even if they are humanoid in shape, why are we expecting them to be more advanced than us…

There's probably relatively clear footage you could find, but I wouldn't be inclined to believe any of it as standalone evidence considering it could be faked given enough effort.

 

If any of the pieces of evidence available did constitute part of an existing phenomena, it'd need to be studied scientifically as far as we could perceive it I guess.

 

I think thats why skeptics and prospective witnesses get frustrated at the lack of transparency from military organisations. Historically, they've been best placed to collect correlating data and have been evidenced as maintaining an active interest for decades. 

 

It's an interesting concept. I think humans are good at putting their blinkers on for the most part, going about busily in the context of their individual lives. 

 

It's bizarre we're even here tbh lol. I could only hazard what would probably be naive guesses at how or why another intelligent lifeform might interact with us, or what it would even look like.

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, samlcfc said:

There's probably relatively clear footage you could find, but I wouldn't be inclined to believe any of it as standalone evidence considering it could be faked given enough effort.

 

If any of the pieces of evidence available did constitute part of an existing phenomena, it'd need to be studied scientifically as far as we could perceive it I guess.

 

I think thats why skeptics and prospective witnesses get frustrated at the lack of transparency from military organisations. Historically, they've been best placed to collect correlating data and have been evidenced as maintaining an active interest for decades. 

 

It's an interesting concept. I think humans are good at putting their blinkers on for the most part, going about busily in the context of their individual lives. 

 

It's bizarre we're even here tbh lol. I could only hazard what would probably be naive guesses at how or why another intelligent lifeform might interact with us, or what it would even look like.

The Fermi Paradox and its offshoots and possible solutions cover this in much more detail, but I'm sure you're aware of that already.

[samlcfc]

59 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Fair.

 

But having said all this, which is the more likely possibility?

 

- That the professionals both government and private are interested in these situations because they represent new tech from entities public and private that they know nothing of, might could threaten them and therefore need more information on

 

or

 

- That the professionals have evidence for and are suppressing the knowledge of genuine alien spacecraft who have the technology to travel vast distances to visit us, but then seemingly not the tech to hide from us, or choose not to, for reasons not yet known

 

....?

 

If they are going to have mastered interstellar travel, they will as a matter of course be further along the tech tree than we are.

 

But the first sentence is spot on. Reminds me of a conversation from the movie Sphere: "We always assume these creatures will be green, or insect-like, but basically human. But what if they inhale air and exhale cyanide gas? It's perfectly plausible."

Personally, I also suspect the first one. Although, given my previous comment on the bizarre nature of existence, I'm not sure I know enough about probability to comment on how unlikely the second option is. 

 

Given comments heard from trained observers, it'd be great to know what data some of these military organisations have. If the technology was capable of the things that some people report, however unlikely, it'd totally make sense as to why they wouldn't let people know! 

 

I totally appreciate that they wouldn't want to let people know their observational capabilities though, even if what they were observing from other human entities was akin to paper kites.

[Barrowblue]

20 hours ago, MPH said:

US says UFO sightings likely secret military tests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68515515

Boring !

[MPH]

14 minutes ago, Barrowblue said:

Boring !

 

it’s nothing we didn’t think before… I just find it all very frustrating and I really want to see some evidence.