How difficult is it to get promoted after being relegated?

[Heskey2011]

Spain, Italy, Germany, and France 

11 teams relegated last season.

 

In Italy and Germany all 6 relegated teams are nowhere near bouncing back.

 

In Spain theres only Espanyol who are close 3rd. 4points off Top.

 

In France Auxerre are top and Angers 3rd.

 

Sooo it is hard to achieve (unless you're in France)

It's about the phrasing "we're doing better than all the relegated teams in Italy Spain and Germany" that's pretty impressive.

 

Championship is definitely the hardest of those 2nd divs but we do have 8 more games over a season in Championship, so longer for class to shine through. (You can afford a few more slip-ups in Championship than in other 2nd tiers.

 

 

 

 

 

[CosbehFox]

https://skylab.com/bouncebackability-what-are-the-chances/

 

Better summary of it 

 

28% of teams go straight back up - 50% of teams are within the top six 

 

Don't think other European leagues are comparable due to parachute payments etc 

[Heskey2011]

2 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

https://skylab.com/bouncebackability-what-are-the-chances/

 

Better summary of it 

 

28% of teams go straight back up - 50% of teams are within the top six 

 

Don't think other European leagues are comparable due to parachute payments etc 

Alright 

[themightyfin]

If you still have a squad full of internationals and a clutch of Premier league standard players who cost millions and are on mega bucks then it should be a piece of piss.

[Pliskin]

1 minute ago, themightyfin said:

If you still have a squad full of internationals and a clutch of Premier league standard players who cost millions and are on mega bucks then it should be a piece of piss.

Someone tell the manager that. 

[whoareyaaa]

31 minutes ago, themightyfin said:

If you still have a squad full of internationals and a clutch of Premier league standard players who cost millions and are on mega bucks then it should be a piece of piss.

I don't think its that simple, Leeds and Southampton have not done any better than us and we have a similar pool of players.

 

Ipswich on a shoe string are right up there.

 

It's okay saying we have a squad full of internationals but a lot of them are on the way out, didn't want to be here and have been placed on massive wages and are general not that amazing.

[Chelmofox]

34 minutes ago, themightyfin said:

If you still have a squad full of internationals and a clutch of Premier league standard players who cost millions and are on mega bucks then it should be a piece of piss.

One 2 of us, Leeds and Southampton could automatically go up and all fit your profile- so is it a piece of piss for all 3?

 

In terms of internationals, who do we actually have who plays at a decent level? Nacho barely played at Afcon, Praet hasn't played for Belgium for years and Faes is a bit part player.

 

Its like saying in Chelseas budget winning the league should be a piece of piss.

[Les-TA-Jon]

41 minutes ago, themightyfin said:

If you still have a squad full of internationals and a clutch of Premier league standard players who cost millions and are on mega bucks then it should be a piece of piss.

Two things can be true at the same time

• we've squandered a good position/lead
• It's not easy to get promoted from the Championship, especially this season - you've had 4 teams in title winning form all season...

[whoareyaaa]

24 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

One 2 of us, Leeds and Southampton could automatically go up and all fit your profile- so is it a piece of piss for all 3?

 

In terms of internationals, who do we actually have who plays at a decent level? Nacho barely played at Afcon, Praet hasn't played for Belgium for years and Faes is a bit part player.

 

Its like saying in Chelseas budget winning the league should be a piece of piss.

Exactly the recruitment has been really poor since Pearson left, we've had a few good signings but largely we have overpaid and bought the wrong players.

 

The only players we have signed who have actually been good value are Youri, Soy, Maquire, Fofona, Maddison & Ricardo over 8 years.

[SouthStandUpperTier]

3 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Exactly the recruitment has been really poor since Pearson left, we've had a few good signings but largely we have overpaid and bought the wrong players.

 

The only players we have signed who have actually been good value are Youri, Soy, Maquire, Fofona, Maddison & Ricardo over 8 years.

It's debatable whether Soyuncu was good value. He was good for only about 18 months of his 5 years here then left for nothing.

[Trav Le Bleu]

33 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

One 2 of us, Leeds and Southampton could automatically go up and all fit your profile- so is it a piece of piss for all 3?

 

In terms of internationals, who do we actually have who plays at a decent level? Nacho barely played at Afcon, Praet hasn't played for Belgium for years and Faes is a bit part player.

 

Its like saying in Chelseas budget winning the league should be a piece of piss.

Absolutely.

 

There's plenty of teams in the Championship with 5-6 internationals, specifically African and minor European countries.

 

When we were in League One, we had a handful of international players.

[Chelmofox]

11 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Exactly the recruitment has been really poor since Pearson left, we've had a few good signings but largely we have overpaid and bought the wrong players.

 

The only players we have signed who have actually been good value are Youri, Soy, Maquire, Fofona, Maddison & Ricardo over 8 years.

I agree about recruitment, although i think this summer showed us getting things back on track. 

 

I laugh how the same posters say that our recruitment has been awful, but at the same time say that we have the best team ever in the Championship.

[themightyfin]

17 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Exactly the recruitment has been really poor since Pearson left, we've had a few good signings but largely we have overpaid and bought the wrong players.

 

The only players we have signed who have actually been good value are Youri, Soy, Maquire, Fofona, Maddison & Ricardo over 8 years.

I'd add...

 

Ndidi 

Kante

Evans

Justin

Hermansan 

Castagne

Mavididi 

 

Off the top of my head.

 

All of these have proved value for money I would say and all arrived after  Pearson left. 

That's a huge list of successful signings .

 

Not all signing work our at ANY club. But that's a big list of successful ones we have had. 

 

Edited 16 April by themightyfin

[Chelmofox]

1 minute ago, themightyfin said:

I'd add...

 

Ndidi 

Kante

Evans

Justin

Hermansan 

Castagne

Mavididi 

 

Off the top of my head.

 

All of these have proved value for money I would say and all arrived after  Pearson left. 

Who do you currently consider an international worthy of the statement 'squad full of internationals'.

[whoareyaaa]

7 minutes ago, themightyfin said:

I'd add...

 

Ndidi 

Kante

Evans

Justin

Hermansan 

Castagne

Mavididi 

 

Off the top of my head.

 

All of these have proved value for money I would say and all arrived after  Pearson left. 

That's a huge list of successful signings .

 

Not all signing work our at ANY club. But that's a big list of successful ones we have had. 

 

Evans had one good season and Castange was bang average imo.

 

Hermasen and Mav have only just arrived although do look good value.

 

Kante left after one season and was around the time Pearsons recruitment team was in place.

 

Justin and Nididi I'd agree with.

[themightyfin]

2 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

Who do you currently consider an international worthy of the statement 'squad full of internationals'.

My statement was a squad full of internationals

 

Let's see.

 

Hermansen

Akgun

Faes

Fatawu

Soutter

Daka

Ward

Kels

Vesty

Ndidi 

Kristiansen

 

Vardy 

Praet

Winks

Ricardo 

Coady

Justin

Also are former internationals 

 

That's 17. 

I think that's quite an extensive list that I can think of and I highly doubt there are many championship teams who can boast the same.

 

 

 

[whoareyaaa]

14 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

I agree about recruitment, although i think this summer showed us getting things back on track. 

 

I laugh how the same posters say that our recruitment has been awful, but at the same time say that we have the best team ever in the Championship.

Yep we do seem to have made some decent signings this time around in Winks, Mav, Hermasen and Coady (even though he has hardly featured)

[HankMarvin]

After relegation

season one 27 percent

season two 10 percent 

season three 5 percent 

chance of promotion 

 

The one year bounce-backs

It is the hope of any team axed from the Premier League. The plan: re-group in the summer, gather some serious momentum and then reclaim your spot in the top flight — hopefully in a stronger and more robust position than when you left the previous spring. The first parachute payment — 55 per cent of the equal distribution of broadcast payments to Premier League sides — received in the first season down in the EFL probably helps quite a bit in pulling this off.

 

 

But of the 81 teams relegated from domestic football’s elite division since 1995-96, only 22 (around 27 per cent) bounced straight back. On average, less than one relegated team a season returns to the top flight one year later.

 

There have been campaigns in which the promotion spots are heavily occupied by the previous season’s relegated teams. There are five years in which two of the three sides to come down have been promoted back up.

Newcastle have bounced straight back from relegation twice

 

Over the past five seasons, five relegated teams have been promoted in the following campaign. But there has also been one year within that window in which none of the three bounced back

 

There have also been some long spells without any teams making immediate returns to the top flight. Between the end of the 2002-03 season and the end of 2005-06, no sides went straight back up. The same happened between the end of 2016-17 and the end of 2018-19.

 

Total teams promoted back after one season: 22

 

Promotion after one season

TeamRelegatedPositionPromotedPosition

Bolton

1995-96

20th

1996-97

1st

Middlesbrough

1996-97

19th

1997-98

2nd

Nottingham Forest

1996-97

20th

1997-98

1st

Charlton

1998-99

18th

1999-20

1st

Manchester City

2000-01

18th

2001-02

1st

Leicester City

2001-02

20th

2002-03

2nd

Birmingham City

2005-06

18th

2006-07

2nd

Sunderland

2005-06

20th

2006-07

1st

Birmingham City

2007-08

18th

2008-09

2nd

Newcastle United

2008-09

19th

2009-10

1st

West Brom

2008-09

20th

2009-10

2nd

West Ham

2010-11

20th

2011-12

Play-offs

QPR

2012-13

20th

2013-14

Play-offs

Norwich City

2013-14

18th

2014-15

Play-offs

Hull City

2014-15

18th

2015-16

Play-offs

Burnley

2014-15

19th

2015-16

1st

Newcastle United

2015-16

18th

2016-17

1st

Fulham

2018-19

19th

2019-20

Play-offs

Watford

2019-20

19th

2020-21

2nd

Norwich City

2019-20

20th

2020-21

1st

Fulham

2020-21

18th

2021-22

1st

Burnley

2021-22

18th

2022-23

1st

 

 

Bouncing back within two years

This is less common than going up again after one Championship season, suggesting that the best opportunity of re-entering the Premier League is on your first attempt. The second parachute payment, worth 45 per cent of the equal distribution of broadcast payments to Premier League sides, is a sizeable drop from season one’s 55 per cent.

 

Just eight teams across the 81 in our sample were promoted to the Premier League after their second season in the second tier.

 

 

 

In 2004-05, two clubs who had been relegated in 2002-03 won back places in the top flight — West Ham Unitedand Sunderland.

West Ham are Premier League staples now, but were an EFL side in 2005

 

Sheffield United, who were relegated in 2020-21, have achieved the same feat this season, finishing as runners-up to Burnley.

Sunderland’s 1998-99 promotion is also of note — it followed a loss in the play-off final on penalties the season before. They were unlucky to need a second bite of the cherry, but capitalised fully when granted that additional nibble.

 

Total teams promoted back after two seasons: Eight

 

Promotion after two seasons

TeamRelegatedPositionPromoted

Sunderland

1996-97

18th

1998-99

Blackburn Rovers

1998-99

20th

2000-01

West Ham United

2002-03

18th

2004-05

Sunderland

2002-03

20th

2004-05

West Brom

2005-06

19th

2007-08

West Brom

2017-18

20th

2019-20

Bournemouth

2019-20

18th

2021-22

Sheffield United

2020-21

20th

2022-23

 

Bouncing back within three years

As teams move further away from their relegation to the Championship, they get less and less likely to go back up to the Premier League.

When it reaches the third season down, it is very rare that teams who come down ever experience the warm glow of the top flight again. Relegated teams who had been in the Premier League for more than one season receive a third and final parachute payment in year three of 20 per cent of the equal distribution of broadcast payments, which is clearly an even greater drop-off than between their first and second seasons in the EFL.

 

This might be why just four teams have been promoted back to the Premier League in their third season down in the time period we looked at — half the number who went up at the end of year two.

 

Norwich and Aston Villa earned promotion in their third season in the Championship four years ago, having gone down together in 2015-16. There have been just two other seasons in which teams have gone up at the third post-relegation attempt.

Total teams promoted back after three seasons: 4

Promotion after three seasons

TeamRelegatedPositionPromoted

Bolton

1997-98

18th

2000-01

Hull City

2009-10

19th

2012-13

Norwich City

2015-16

19th

2018-19

Aston Villa

2015-16

20th

2018-19

Relegated again within three years

As bad as relegation is, there is an even worse outcome — a double relegation.

This feat — or nightmare — has twice happened to clubs in back-to-back seasons.

In 2011-12, Wolverhampton Wandererswere relegated from the Premier League after spending two seasons on the top-flight gravy train. They appointed Stale Solbakken as manager that summer, then replaced him with Dean Saunders in the January, but at the end of a chaotic 2012-13 campaign, dropped to League One.

Sunderland tumbled out of the Premier League in 2016-17. With the Netflix documentary cameras watching on, they then plunged straight through the second tier into League One. They only came back up from the third tier for the start of this season.

Sunderland suffered double relegation before promotion back to the Championship last year 

 

While only those two teams have done back-to-back relegations, a further four have been relegated within three years of falling into the Championship.

 

Barnsley, having come down from the top flight in 1997-98, were relegated to what is now League One in 2001-02. Leeds went from being Champions League semi-finalists in 2000-01 to relegation in 2003-04. Their financial woes would then lead them further down, into League One, at the end of 2006-07.

 

Portsmouth had their own money problems when they were relegated from the Premier League in 2009-10 and these were exacerbated when they went down to the third division two years later. Remarkably, they dropped to League Two at the end of 2012-13, making it three relegations in four seasons.

Wigan Athletic won the FA Cup final that same season, but were relegated from the Premier League three days later. They had a good first year back in the Championship, reaching the play-offs, but started 2014-15 badly and sacked Uwe Rosler in the November. They appointed Malky Mackay, then Gary Caldwell for the final few games, but could not arrest the slide.

Relegated within three years

TeamRelegated to ChampPositionRelegated to L1

Barnsley

1997-98

19th

2001-02

Leeds United

2003-04

19th

2006-07

Portsmouth

2009-10

20th

2011-12

Wolves

2011-12

20th

2012-13

Wigan Athletic

2012-13

18th

2014-15

Sunderland

2016-17

20th

2017-18

Edited 16 April by HankMarvin

[TheGoldenGod]

16 minutes ago, whoareyaaa said:

Evans had one good season and Castange was bang average imo.

 

Hermasen and Mav have only just arrived although do look good value.

 

Kante left after one season and was around the time Pearsons recruitment team was in place.

 

Justin and Nididi I'd agree with.

Yeah agreed with Castagne. Never thought he was all that and for 20m definitely not! Worst moment was in that home tie to Napoli where he's literally just picking his nose as Oshimen strolls by him instead of defending. Laughable from the bloke . No wonder he only amounted to Fulham.

Edited 16 April by TheGoldenGod

[MPH]

 

 

I do think we have had more than enough quality to go straight back up... but i also think that Enzo has got us playing a system that is more suited to the prem than the championship.  quality should always prevail but i felt like we needed some more grafters and more no nonsense defenders to be truly successful in the champ. Feels like we have been muscled out of games too often

[HankMarvin]

13 minutes ago, MPH said:

 

 

I do think we have had more than enough quality to go straight back up... but i also think that Enzo has got us playing a system that is more suited to the prem than the championship.  quality should always prevail but i felt like we needed some more grafters and more no nonsense defenders to be truly successful in the champ. Feels like we have been muscled out of games too often

Why is it more suited to the prem? 
Yes teams don’t defend so deep, but we also wouldn’t see as much of the ball and our frailties would be further exposed.
 

[Chelmofox]

17 minutes ago, HankMarvin said:

Why is it more suited to the prem? 
Yes teams don’t defend so deep, but we also wouldn’t see as much of the ball and our frailties would be further exposed.
 

There will be less emphasis on forcing things to happen. First 70 mins against Leeds or the game against Bournemouth are good indicators of this.

[jim5000]

1 hour ago, themightyfin said:

My statement was a squad full of internationals

 

Let's see.

 

Hermansen

Akgun

Faes

Fatawu

Soutter

Daka

Ward

Kels

Vesty

Ndidi 

Kristiansen

 

Vardy 

Praet

Winks

Ricardo 

Coady

Justin

Also are former internationals 

 

That's 17. 

I think that's quite an extensive list that I can think of and I highly doubt there are many championship teams who can boast the same.

 

 

 

Danny Ward 🤣

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, TheGoldenGod said:

Yeah agreed with Castagne. Never thought he was all that and for 20m definitely not! Worst moment was in that home tie to Napoli where he's literally just picking his nose as Oshimen strolls by him instead of defending. Laughable from the bloke . No wonder he only amounted to Fulham.

Fulham are using his overlapping abilities really well rather than him trying to worry about the neckline 

[leatherhead32]

7 minutes ago, Chelmofox said:

There will be less emphasis on forcing things to happen. First 70 mins against Leeds or the game against Bournemouth are good indicators of this.

agree yep. plus teams have come here to stop us and even when there at home the same , off the point for a mo look at their relief and celebrations when they turn us over , when we won title most sides fancied 3 pts ere before liverpool 2.o game and that worked a treat and away even more.  however i cant even begin to wonder what the summer holds and what the squad will look like when were up. back in  19 80 81  was thinking mid table as young team  83 84   top 7 as matured,  1994 95   bottom half thought wed get rid of lots but didn't and as 81 relegated , 1996 relegation so what do i know as o'neil did wonders. 04  05 got it right with adams mercenaries.  nigels army , i  had us to beat drop in march time 9/2 and we did of course. thanks np.