Election prediction time

[Brizzle Fox]

8 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Rory sticking the boot in big time.

 

The best leader the Tories never had. 

 

 

It was the beginning of the end of the Tories once they got rid of the grown ups, like Stewart, like Gauke etc in a fit of post Brexit hubris.

 

Those genuine one nation Conservatives must be loving what's happening now.

[Trav Le Bleu]

Agent Sunak is doing a top job for Labour.

[Brizzle Fox]

Just now, Trav Le Bleu said:

Agent Sunak is doing a top job for Labour.

I see he decided to do no appearances, no media etc today. Might be the best approach for him for the remainder of the campaign. 

[Paninistickers]

5 minutes ago, Brizzle Fox said:

It was the beginning of the end of the Tories once they got rid of the grown ups, like Stewart, like Gauke etc in a fit of post Brexit hubris.

 

Those genuine one nation Conservatives must be loving what's happening now.

Agree, but those one nation Tories maybe should've had the balls to set up a centre right party. The aborted 'Change' Party of Ann Soubry needed some heavyweights. Similar to the SDP splitting from labour back in the day.

 

 

[Brizzle Fox]

Just now, Paninistickers said:

Agree, but those one nation Tories maybe should've had the balls to set up a centre right party. The aborted 'Change' Party of Ann Soubry needed some heavyweights. Similar to the SDP splitting from labour back in the day.

 

 

I think they genuinely thought it would be a blip and things would move back in their favour again but feels like that ship has probably sailed now, so a fair point.

[StanSP]

Next debate is ITV on Thursday. 

 

Sadly it's Julie Etchingham again moderating... 

[Daggers]

53 minutes ago, StanSP said:

They're so broken. 

 

Shippers’ article here https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/infighting-on-the-beaches-behind-the-scenes-of-the-d-day-debacle-6rlvt8nr6

 

There’s no paywall on the Times’ site all weekend. 

[Tuna]

Would love to see Andrew Neil interview the leaders; this from Neil in 2019 is excellent.

 

 

 

Edited 8 June 2024 by Tuna

[urban.spaceman]

2 hours ago, StanSP said:

They're so broken. 

 

They've literally taken 15m from a racist, how have they run out of money??

[urban.spaceman]

 

[ozleicester]

 

2 hours ago, StanSP said:

They're so broken. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Daggers said:

Shippers’ article here https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/infighting-on-the-beaches-behind-the-scenes-of-the-d-day-debacle-6rlvt8nr6

 

There’s no paywall on the Times’ site all weekend. 

 

16 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

They've literally taken 15m from a racist, how have they run out of money??

Just another reason why Murdoch and his ilk love elections.

If you or i go to the newspaper/media org and want to advertise, they will offer all sorts of discounts, bonuses and cheap options off the "rate card" (noone ever pays rate card its like rack rates at hotels).

During elections "to ensure fairness" all political adverts MUST  be at rate card, so media orgs rake in millions at high rate... we used to spend years planning how best to exploit election dollars.

[Jon the Hat]

9 hours ago, FoxesDeb said:

 

That's not a great analogy though is it? If you don't think she's racist, what is she?

 

She clearly is racist (edit for avoidance of doubt). 

 

I am quite interested though in how people get to this position.  I think it is generally accepted fact that most people find themselves more comfortable with what they know, and uncomfortable with rapid change.  It is not that hard to see that someone might struggle when they live in a community which in their lifetime has gone from mostly white people she grew up with or knew,  or who were at least fairly local, to seeing a large influx of first generation immigrants, who while they might speak perfect English choose to speak to each other in their own language, live rather different lives and have different beliefs, dress differently, have different sometimes awful backgrounds before arriving, can be fearful and defensive - and of course this is worsened by a mixed welcome.  I think it is harsh to say she is only accepting of people who do something for her - she is in fact seeing the person when she gets to know them.  People who she interacts with are of course those she will get to know, and both communities can be insular.  Into this mix then add the fear stocking about jihadis, the fact that Mulsim communities do often disagree with the locals on issue slike Gaza, on sex eduction, on all kinds of things and you have a position where it is very easy for Farage and the like to wind up concerns.  Such people actually live the daily challenges of multiculturalism, which I think can be a lot harder than the politically aware like to recognise.  I feel sympathy for them, both for finding it hard to deal with, and for being ripe for exploitation by the right-wing arseholes.  Even saying that though makes me feel like I am being a condescending arsehole like those who dismiss their concerns as coming from racism as if they have no basis in reality.  If she was talking about the influx of Polish community with their Catholicism and loads of kids, would you say she was racist?

Edited 9 June 2024 by Jon the Hat

[Daggers]

Hold on to your hats, ladies & gentlemen.

 

 

 

[Daggers]

12 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

She clearly has some racial prejudices.  I am quite interested though in how people get to this position.  I think it is generally accepted fact that most people find themselves more comfortable with what they know, and uncomfortable with rapid change.  It is not that hard to see that someone might struggle when they live in a community which in their lifetime has gone from mostly white people she grew up with or knew,  or who were at least fairly local, to seeing a large influx of first generation immigrants, who while they might speak perfect English choose to speak to each other in their own language, live rather different lives and have different beliefs, dress differently, have different sometimes awful backgrounds before arriving, can be fearful and defensive - and of course this is worsened by a mixed welcome.  I think it is harsh to say she is only accepting of people who do something for her - she is in fact seeing the person when she gets to know them.  People who she interacts with are of course those she will get to know, and both communities can be insular.  Into this mix then add the fear stocking about jihadis, the fact that Mulsim communities do often disagree with the locals on issue slike Gaza, on sex eduction, on all kinds of things and you have a position where it is very easy for Farage and the like to wind up concerns.  Such people actually live the daily challenges of multiculturalism, which I think can be a lot harder than the politically aware like to recognise.  I feel sympathy for them, both for finding it hard to deal with, and for being ripe for exploitation by the right-wing arseholes.  Even saying that though makes me feel like I am being a condescending arsehole like those who dismiss their concerns as coming from racism as if they have no basis in reality.  If she was talking about the influx of Polish community with their Catholicism and loads of kids, would you say she was racist?

There is not a sliding scale of racism, you are or you aren’t one - she is a racist. A conspiracy toting, little Tommy ten names loving, hypocritically curry chef liking, bigot. 

Edited 9 June 2024 by Daggers

[Jon the Hat]

12 minutes ago, Daggers said:

There is not a sliding scale of racism, you are or you aren’t one - she is a racist. A conspiracy toting, little Tommy ten names loving, hypocritically curry chef liking, bigot. 

Yes I am not saying she isn't just that I find it interesting how people get there.  How they listen to the right-wing bollocks and think, hell yes!  Rather than the rest of us who look at it and think this is indeed bollocks.  Its possible this woman is not a great example to base my question on.  Its sad, and as even the most gleeful woohoo the Tories are toast Labour supporters can see there is a risk here of Reform types getting a lot more of the pie here.

 

Do you think there is a lack of general awareness of the rise of the right here?  I didn't see much coverage of the TR protests for example.  Is ignoring them the right plan here.  I don't know.

[Jon the Hat]

6 hours ago, Brizzle Fox said:

I think they genuinely thought it would be a blip and things would move back in their favour again but feels like that ship has probably sailed now, so a fair point.

We can only hope like Labour post Corbyn they ditch the right and move back towards the centre and some new talent emerges.  In some respects I hope the chance to jump ship to Reform takes the worst of the party out leaving the economically conservative socially liberal types I can at least see some alignment with.

[Daggers]

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Yes I am not saying she isn't just that I find it interesting how people get there.  How they listen to the right-wing bollocks and think, hell yes!  Rather than the rest of us who look at it and think this is indeed bollocks.  Its possible this woman is not a great example to base my question on.  Its sad, and as even the most gleeful woohoo the Tories are toast Labour supporters can see there is a risk here of Reform types getting a lot more of the pie here.

 

Do you think there is a lack of general awareness of the rise of the right here?  I didn't see much coverage of the TR protests for example.  Is ignoring them the right plan here.  I don't know.

I think British society at large is woefully complacent when it comes to white extremism. Even some here worried about throwing of a milk shake. 
 

Personally, as with Oswald Mosley, I believe we should throw more than milky drinks at them. 
 

Apropos nothing:

Hope Not Hate - State of Hate report - https://hopenothate.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/state-of-hate-2024-v15.pdf

Searchlight - https://www.searchlightmagazine.com/#

 

[Sampson]

3 hours ago, Daggers said:

Hold on to your hats, ladies & gentlemen.

 

 

 

Tories getting Canada 1993’d

 

Edited 9 June 2024 by Sampson

[HighPeakFox]

Things are not good when you get people like Tice suggesting that the most right wing government of our lifetimes is actually following Socialist policies - and this will chime with every wannabe nazi that wishes to try and justify their appalling political and social stances.

[Paninistickers]

7 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Things are not good when you get people like Tice suggesting that the most right wing government of our lifetimes is actually following Socialist policies - and this will chime with every wannabe nazi that wishes to try and justify their appalling political and social stances.

Legit question, and I'm not trying to wind anyone up. 

 

Are all right wing parties/policies Nazis and have appalling political and social stances? It just seems we (public and media) all kinda just buy into right wing = evil. 

 

I'm trying to be fair and less dramatic and genuinely try to work out if right is bad.... and not just a political theory that lots of people happen to disagree with 

 

Is it possible that right wing, in a softer sense, means economic protectionism? Means tax breaks  (in the hope of the supposed trickle down effect)? About lack of red tape and reducing the nanny state? About personal liberty over collective good? Isn't that the essence of 'right wing'? 

[Sampson]

31 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Legit question, and I'm not trying to wind anyone up. 

 

Are all right wing parties/policies Nazis and have appalling political and social stances? It just seems we (public and media) all kinda just buy into right wing = evil. 

 

I'm trying to be fair and less dramatic and genuinely try to work out if right is bad.... and not just a political theory that lots of people happen to disagree with 

 

Is it possible that right wing, in a softer sense, means economic protectionism? Means tax breaks  (in the hope of the supposed trickle down effect)? About lack of red tape and reducing the nanny state? About personal liberty over collective good? Isn't that the essence of 'right wing'? 

I think you’re a bit confused here. You describe “economic protectionism” and then describe the absolute opposite of protectionism and describe the economic liberalism of free market, low taxes and free trade economics. Protectionism by definition means protecting and closing the economy and setting up barriers and beurocracy to new businesses and outside influences. 
 

You also then describe the liberalism of “the lack of red tape” and “nanny state” while we’re taking about parties who want to implement severely anti-immigration policy. Shouldn’t the kind of right wing party you describe be extremely pro-immigration and pro the personal liberty of being able to move country without having to go through border controls or apply and sit in visa queues for years on end? Shouldn’t they be pro-asylum seekers and refugees just coming to the country without having to go through border checks or visa applications?

 

And if the answer to that is “well yes, but the laws of the free markets only applies to Brits or people of similar cultures in other Anglosphere and Western European countries not other people of very different cultures” well then yes, that’s nationalism.

Edited 9 June 2024 by Sampson

[Paninistickers]

8 minutes ago, Sampson said:

I think you’re a bit confused here. You describe “economic protectionism” and then describe the absolute opposite of protectionism and describe free market and free trade economics. Protectionism by definition means protecting and closing the economy and setting up barriers and beurocracy to new businesses and outside influences. 
 

You also then describe “the lack of red tape” and “nanny state” while we’re taking about parties who want to implement severely anti-immigration policy. Shouldn’t the kind of right wing party you describe be extremely pro-immigration and pro the personal liberty of being able to move country without having to go through border controls or apply and sit in visa queues? Shouldn’t they be pro-asylum seekers and refugees just coming to the country without having to go through border checks or visa applications?

 

And if the answer to that is “well yes, but the laws of the free markets only applies to Brits or people of similar cultures in other Anglosphere and Western European countries not other people of very different cultures” well then yes, that’s nationalism.

I think you sum it up well. The right wing is riddled with inconsistencies, as you point out. I wasn't trying to either justify the right not explain it. Just trying to be balanced and not necessarily dismiss the right as Nazis as many people seem to do. 

 

One of the inconsistencies - which kinda highlights the absurdity of pigeon holing left/right politics - is the abortion death penalty split. 

 

Right wing are often 'Pro lifers' but tend to be pro death, when it comes to the justice system.

 

Left wing are often 'pro choice' (ie killing foetuses) but anti death penalty. 

 

Absurd eh?

 

 

 

 

[leicsmac]

Just now, Paninistickers said:

I think you sum it up well. The right wing is riddled with inconsistencies, as you point out. I wasn't trying to either justify the right not explain it. Just trying to be balanced and not necessarily dismiss the right as Nazis as many people seem to do. 

 

One of the inconsistencies - which kinda highlights the absurdity of pigeon holing left/right politics - is the abortion death penalty split. 

 

Right wing are often 'Pro lifers' but tend to be pro death, when it comes to the justice system.

 

Left wing are often 'pro choice' (ie killing foetuses) but anti death penalty. 

 

Absurd eh?

 

 

 

 

I would be interested in knowing more about the ideological link between these two things, other than the death of an individual and the role the state may or may not have on it.

[Sampson]

5 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I think you sum it up well. The right wing is riddled with inconsistencies, as you point out. I wasn't trying to either justify the right not explain it. Just trying to be balanced and not necessarily dismiss the right as Nazis as many people seem to do. 

 

One of the inconsistencies - which kinda highlights the absurdity of pigeon holing left/right politics - is the abortion death penalty split. 

 

Right wing are often 'Pro lifers' but tend to be pro death, when it comes to the justice system.

 

Left wing are often 'pro choice' (ie killing foetuses) but anti death penalty. 

 

Absurd eh?

 

 

 

 

Not really absurd. Again, you’re confusing the debate about the choice of an individual about aborting a fetus in the abortion debate and the choice of the state to end the life of a functioning, mentally sound (assuming that no one is genuinely going to argue for the death penalty to be introduced against people with mental illnesses in 2024 but then I wouldn’t be surprised) adult in the death penalty debate. You’re also ignoring a huge part of the debate which is at what point a fetus has reached the stage of “life”.

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Not really absurd. Again, you’re confusing the debate about the choice of an individual about aborting a fetus in the abortion debate and the choice of the state to end the life of a functioning, mentally sound (assuming that no one is genuinely going to argue for the death penalty to be introduced against people with mental illnesses in 2024 but then I wouldn’t be surprised) adult in the death penalty debate. You’re also ignoring a huge part of the debate which is at what point a fetus has reached the stage of “life”.

I can't speak for anyone else but AFAIC the bolded is an irrelevant argument that's often brought up to muddy the waters anyway.

 

The simple legal and logical argument IMO is that in no other circumstance is a human being criminally legally obliged to protect the life and health of another human being when doing so would, or even could, threaten their own health and life. The moral arguments that are so often relied upon don't come into it.

 

That this one instance where the above is attempted to be legislated for and all others aren't is hypocrisy of the highest order.

Edited 9 June 2024 by leicsmac