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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Bill Burns would have Netanyahu shot on the spot if they genuinely thought he was gearing up to use a nuclear weapon. It would mean that Putin would use them in Ukraine as the ‘taboo’ that he doesn’t want to break would be broken and it would destroy all US credibility and would lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons all across the Middle East and beyond. It would be far easier to put a bullet in Netanyahu’s head.

 


 

what you say about Putin is possible, but remember that Ukraine is on Russias doorstep so any Nuclear weapon sent to Ukraine could also effect Russia.. Iran is far away from Israel so no fall out would effect them.

 

 

it just feels like because of November the 7th, Israel is now looking for permanent solutions. Went in Hard on Hamas and now seem to be doing the same to Hezbollah… 

 

Iran May now be entering into a FAFO stage.. 

 

 

it’s worth remembering that anyone who attacks Israel will not only destroy some of the Holiest sites in Islam, they’ll also destroy the very people they are seeking to protect- the Palestinians.. this might even explain why Tel Aviv is more of a target- they have the missiles to reach Jerusalem. let’s hope Netanyahu doesn’t have a “Buggrit” moment at the end of his time in office..

Edited by MPH
Posted
2 hours ago, MPH said:


 

what you say about Putin is possible, but remember that Ukraine is on Russias doorstep so any Nuclear weapon sent to Ukraine could also effect Russia.. Iran is far away from Israel so no fall out would effect them.

 

 

it just feels like because of November the 7th, Israel is now looking for permanent solutions. Went in Hard on Hamas and now seem to be doing the same to Hezbollah… 

 

Iran May now be entering into a FAFO stage.. 

 

 

it’s worth remembering that anyone who attacks Israel will not only destroy some of the Holiest sites in Islam, they’ll also destroy the very people they are seeking to protect- the Palestinians.. this might even explain why Tel Aviv is more of a target- they have the missiles to reach Jerusalem. let’s hope Netanyahu doesn’t have a “Buggrit” moment at the end of his time in office..

Israel is a small country 

As you say, if Iran launches a huge number of missiles then of those escaping Israeli air defences, a proportion would malfunction and land in the West Bank (possibly even Gaza) 

they could probably safely target demona as it’s in the Negev but they wouldn’t bomb a nuclear plant for obvious reasons. 

 

I just don’t see Iran doing anything stupid directly when they have created their proxies to do things for them. Hezbollah are sitting on Israel’s northern border as a deterrent to Israel attacking Iran. You could make an argument that Israel is attempting to remove that threat so they can actually take out Iran’s nuclear program. That could be where this is all heading  ??

 

5 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Israel looking to go into Lebanon then.

 

I know that the Old Testament goes on about an eye for an eye, but exactly how many eyes are enough?


If Hezbollah aren’t going back to the litani out of choice then I guess Israel can justify forcing them back via a ground ‘invasion’. . At the very least they need to put the anti tank missiles out of range because they have no real defence against those coming across the border.  Or they can just accept that the northern border region is uninhabitable whenever Hezbollah decide there’s something going on that they dislike.  I’d say Hezbollah have made their own bed on this one. 
 

The Americans have been trying to get 1701 enacted for almost a year now. It simply wasn’t going to happen without force being used.  

  • Like 1
Posted

I believe Israel’s intention is to create a buffer zone inside Lebanon to stem the flow of missiles coming their way.

 

 

At least, that’s what they are saying publicly..

Posted
41 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Israel looking to go into Lebanon then.

 

I know that the Old Testament goes on about an eye for an eye, but exactly how many eyes are enough?

I hate the whole eye for an eye thing. 

 

It's a line designed to cause war murder and distress and so many just it as an excuse. 

 

It's going to get messy at least it's not on our doorstep yet...

Posted
30 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

 


If Hezbollah aren’t going back to the litani out of choice then I guess Israel can justify forcing them back via a ground ‘invasion’. . At the very least they need to put the anti tank missiles out of range because they have no real defence against those coming across the border.  Or they can just accept that the northern border region is uninhabitable whenever Hezbollah decide there’s something going on that they dislike.  I’d say Hezbollah have made their own bed on this one. 
 

The Americans have been trying to get 1701 enacted for almost a year now. It simply wasn’t going to happen without force being used.  

 

2 minutes ago, MPH said:

I believe Israel’s intention is to create a buffer zone inside Lebanon to stem the flow of missiles coming their way.

 

 

At least, that’s what they are saying publicly..

That all sounds pretty accurate in summation.

 

But it's also obvious it's going to result in a lot more blood being spilled and the Israeli leadership feigning lack of any responsibility for it despite being the ones having actually pulled the triggers.

Posted
Just now, Grebfromgrebland said:

I hate the whole eye for an eye thing. 

 

It's a line designed to cause war murder and distress and so many just it as an excuse. 

 

It's going to get messy at least it's not on our doorstep yet...

Well, yeah. Such cycles of vengeance tend to only end when one side is either dead or totally subjugated at a massive cost in blood, or when both sides actually realise that they're all actually human beings and break the cycle.

Posted
1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

 

That all sounds pretty accurate in summation.

 

But it's also obvious it's going to result in a lot more blood being spilled and the Israeli leadership feigning lack of any responsibility for it despite being the ones having actually pulled the triggers.

They would argue that the international community have had eleven months to get this done diplomatically - I’m wondering if this is all pointing to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program in the near future 

Posted
6 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

They would argue that the international community have had eleven months to get this done diplomatically - I’m wondering if this is all pointing to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program in the near future 

If that's being used as a justification for what has happened and what will happen, it's as flimsy as it is laughable.

 

What they are doing is their disproportionate version of restoring the balance of terror. Which in this Might Makes Right world is apparently fine, but the "good guy" PR campaign being floated alongside it insults the intelligence of any observer beyond the casual and those totally fine with such Might Makes Right.

  • Like 1
Posted
30 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

They would argue that the international community have had eleven months to get this done diplomatically - I’m wondering if this is all pointing to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program in the near future 

That and I wonder whether Israel are doing it because they consider it their last chance to do so before Iran gets the bomb.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Dunge said:

That and I wonder whether Israel are doing it because they consider it their last chance to do so before Iran gets the bomb.

Can you unpack this one a bit?

 

Given Israel already have the capacity for mutually assured destruction in the region, I'm not sure how much that would affect the direct strategic situation.

 

Generally, of course, it would massively destabilise things, but that's beyond this particular situation.

Posted
4 hours ago, MPH said:


 

what you say about Putin is possible, but remember that Ukraine is on Russias doorstep so any Nuclear weapon sent to Ukraine could also effect Russia.. Iran is far away from Israel so no fall out would effect them.

 

 

it just feels like because of November the 7th, Israel is now looking for permanent solutions. Went in Hard on Hamas and now seem to be doing the same to Hezbollah… 

 

Iran May now be entering into a FAFO stage.. 

 

 

it’s worth remembering that anyone who attacks Israel will not only destroy some of the Holiest sites in Islam, they’ll also destroy the very people they are seeking to protect- the Palestinians.. this might even explain why Tel Aviv is more of a target- they have the missiles to reach Jerusalem. let’s hope Netanyahu doesn’t have a “Buggrit” moment at the end of his time in office..

Nuclear weapon radiation disappears quite quickly into the atmosphere. It’s not like Chernobyl that’s constantly churning out radiation. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, Lionator said:

Nuclear weapon radiation disappears quite quickly into the atmosphere. It’s not like Chernobyl that’s constantly churning out radiation. 


 

let’s hope the evidence is never tested!

Posted
57 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Can you unpack this one a bit?

 

Given Israel already have the capacity for mutually assured destruction in the region, I'm not sure how much that would affect the direct strategic situation.

 

Generally, of course, it would massively destabilise things, but that's beyond this particular situation.

Nothing much to unpack, I thought. It’s a lot easier to attack and push around a non-nuclear armed power.

Posted
12 minutes ago, Dunge said:

Nothing much to unpack, I thought. It’s a lot easier to attack and push around a non-nuclear armed power.

Stands to reason, yeah, though I think Israel has been pretty circumspect about engaging Iran directly in the past, a few examples like Stuxnet aside.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Wymsey said:

Do you agree with Kier on this?..

 

 

 

Yes and no. Some people benefit from a push back into the workplace, while for others it would make their situation worse. The problem, as always, is working out which is which.

  • Like 1
Posted
4 hours ago, Wymsey said:

Do you agree with Kier on this?..

 

 

 

As @Dunge alluded too it’s trying to be black and white in a world of grey.

 

However we have all seen those people who as soon as they retire they suddenly age quite quickly. 
 

Might be less about the work versus the sense of purpose and routine. 

Posted

Some talk about starmer and a super injunction re his private life 

 

Would those who know more about the Labour Party than me like to have a guess at who would be the most likely replacement for him if he wasn’t there ??

 

 

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