Relegation, League 1, financial implications

[5waller5]

18 minutes ago, em9999 said:

There is nothing any of us can do about it and to be honest there are much more important things in life to worry about 

 

Whats the point in the mellow dramatics 

I’d say this is a very rationale and calm discussion of the facts.
 

Given that we’re discussing the demise of a club that most of us have supported our whole lives (for me 50+ years).
 

Yes, there’s bigger issues in the world, but I don’t think it’s melodramatic to discuss the possible end to a 142 year old institution that is known worldwide for its recent history?

[LCFCCKEANO]

5 minutes ago, 5waller5 said:

True, that wasn’t evidenced, so is either his opinion, or he does have knowledge of it being true. Would have been nice to have evidence for that, but then I guess how could he provide that?

Seems to me he makes educated assumptions based on context, rather than anything necessarily completely factual. Think we are in big trouble but I would be shocked if we sold the entire house, think it’s more likely we try to go up first time and be right on the brink of breaking financial rules. Seems to be how the club do things anyway

[5waller5]

3 minutes ago, Stadt said:

The amount of cash in the bank is tiny, it’s self evident we have liquidity issues 

Good point, yes. Explains the December pay packet scandal too. 

[5waller5]

1 minute ago, LCFCCKEANO said:

Seems to me he makes educated assumptions based on context, rather than anything necessarily completely factual. Think we are in big trouble but I would be shocked if we sold the entire house, think it’s more likely we try to go up first time and be right on the brink of breaking financial rules. Seems to be how the club do things anyway

I can see them trying that too … but his analysis really brings home what a fragile house of cards it is. 9% for the latest loan… things quickly unravel in a debt spiral

[FoxesTez]

29 minutes ago, em9999 said:

There is nothing any of us can do about it and to be honest there are much more important things in life to worry about 

 

Whats the point in the mellow dramatics 

This has really made me laugh. Nothing to do with the post, just is one of those things you realise you’ve had wrong your whole life. 
 

It’s ‘melodramatic’. 

[Foxin_Mad]

If the club were to go into Administration over the summer, is there any potential way that someone local could buy us? I presume administrators can release players as they do staff when they take over a business.

[VLC86]

4 minutes ago, Foxin_Mad said:

If the club were to go into Administration over the summer, is there any potential way that someone local could buy us? I presume administrators can release players as they do staff when they take over a business.

Your best bet on answering this question is to Google Leicestershire rich list. Then factor in the blackhole in our finance at this point in time, without factoring in League 1 income, is probably about £150-£200m. Then factor in only the top 10 probably have that amount, then factor in which ones are football fans, and then again which ones fancy losing a massive chunk of the riches they’ve worked so hard for.

 

You can probably guess how many you are left with…

[5waller5]

10 minutes ago, VLC86 said:

Your best bet on answering this question is to Google Leicestershire rich list. Then factor in the blackhole in our finance at this point in time, without factoring in League 1 income, is probably about £150-£200m. Then factor in only the top 10 probably have that amount, then factor in which ones are football fans, and then again which ones fancy losing a massive chunk of the riches they’ve worked so hard for.

 

You can probably guess how many you are left with…

I think our potential saviour is an entity with no connection to the city or county, that sees us as a good value recovery bet

[Les-TA-Jon]

11 hours ago, Cropwellfox said:

Very, very possibly.

And the person they’ve promoted to lead our response to the most serious threat to the existence of the club since 1884 is the Finance guy who has stood by while Rudkin and co have been lobbing petrol on the flames for the past 2 years. 

Kevin Davies was only actually Finance Director at LCFC since May 2023 - before that it was Simon Capper - who has subsequently gone onto Newcastle (so can't be too bad surely?) 

 

Based on the evidence given to independent commissions for the points deductions - Kevin Davies appears to have been trying to rein things in since his appointment. Jan 2024 window a potential sign of that. 

[Cropwellfox]

10 minutes ago, Les-TA-Jon said:

Kevin Davies was only actually Finance Director at LCFC since May 2023 - before that it was Simon Capper - who has subsequently gone onto Newcastle (so can't be too bad surely?) 

 

Based on the evidence given to independent commissions for the points deductions - Kevin Davies appears to have been trying to rein things in since his appointment. Jan 2024 window a potential sign of that. 

Agree to a point, however signing off on Joe Aribo and strategy around season tickets for next year would suggest limited influence at best. 

[Les-TA-Jon]

5 minutes ago, Cropwellfox said:

Agree to a point, however signing off on Joe Aribo and strategy around season tickets for next year would suggest limited influence at best. 

Sure. Anyone's competence at the high end of the club is only as good as Top and Rudkin's ability to let them work - which I imagine is overruled quite a lot...

[Wasyls Pec Deck]

Can anyone see a situation where we don’t go to League Two as a minimum? We are leveraged to the hilt, have loans on extortionate interest rates based on PL income, we will breach, incur points deductions, go into admin, further points deductions. I also think the EFL have on paying back creditors - including owners.

So even if Aiyawatt did stay to cover losses it’s not going to bypass further sanction. And that’s not even talking about probably being unable to sign players, not realise full value for the players we can sell (as we will be desperate), and anyway who’d want to sign for us or even manage us?

 

We shouldn’t underplay how bad this is going to get, potentially an extinction level event. A best case scenario is starting from scratch…

[CUJimmy]

On 15/04/2026 at 09:03, Pliskin said:

https://www.efl.com/governance/financial-regulation/
 

 

 

I mean there is already a thread open about this. 
 

 

In essence, if Top is willing to plow money into the club, to cover the natural losses, and we can successfully get rid of all of the high earners, then we won’t necessarily be at threat. And we could do some form of rebuild. 
 

 

But it all hinges if Top is willing to plow money into the club.

If I am understanding this correctly our player expenditure (transfer/loan fees, wages, agents fees) is limited to the sum total of:

 

- Income from transfers but I am unclear on whether this is the fee received or surplus above amortised value.

 

- 75% (falling to 60% in a second season) of income from matchday, TV, sponsorship.  I assume parachute payments come in here.

 

- 60% of owner investment.

 

The upshot is that we can survive if:

 

- We manage to unload most/all of the high earners.  Any fees would be a bonus.

 

- Top is willing to plough huge amounts in.  Running costs of Seagrave are reported at £50m so I think he could cover that and matched it with a similar sum to go towards player costs.

 

- We come straight back up or at worst it takes 2 seasons.

 

Any of these falls and I think we are screwed.  Not in absolute financial terms because I can’t see Top letting us go into Admin but I can see repeated points deductions, transfer embargoes etc.

 

I haven’t even tried to work out how Championship PSR would be affected if we went back up.  It’s too depressing.

[WhispyWizard]

On 14/04/2026 at 23:34, splinterdream said:

What are we thinking will happen when the inevitable happens.

 

Will we try to offload seagrave?

Will we be able to comply with league 1 financial rules? 

What do we think their plan will be to get out of this mess amd will they communicate that with the fans?

What will be the likely attendance figures at the KP next season? 

No, they aren't competent enough to sort that out.

No, they'll overspend to get promoted, fail, and receive a points deduction the following year.

Their plan will be to give Championship level contracts to new signings, then wonder why they aren't complying with PSR. Communication with the fans will continue to be heard and disregarded, because Rudkin knows best.

18,000, think we had that last time we were in league one.

[Officer Doofy]

12 hours ago, em9999 said:

There is nothing any of us can do about it and to be honest there are much more important things in life to worry about 

 

Whats the point in the mellow dramatics 

 

Spot on, just imagine all of the melodramatic reactions of those made redundant at the end of this season. What fools. 

[Paninistickers]

27 minutes ago, Officer Doofy said:

 

Spot on, just imagine all of the melodramatic reactions of those made redundant at the end of this season. What fools. 

You could take this fool's point for anything..If the national portrait gallery burned down. Notre Dame. Stonehenge bulldozed. That tree on BBC chopped down. If Oxford University went bankrupt. Or maybe just a local restaurant open for 142 years closed due to lack of interest. 

 

There's nothing we can do. And there are much more important things going on..

 

It's all just melodrama. 

[Wasyls Pec Deck]

In this article it says the board think the squad is worth £200m - though not clear if that is the current squad. It also think it says the whole squad would need to be sold in order to cover the financial black hole.

 

However the transfermarkt website has the squad value at €145m, but that includes loan players and those out of contract. When you take those out, the value is estimated at €105m. I’m also not clear on how realistic some of these valuations are for a club in our situation. 
 

I guess it is another way of saying that even if we sold everyone we’re still ****ed.

 

 

[Terraloon]

1 hour ago, CUJimmy said:

If I am understanding this correctly our player expenditure (transfer/loan fees, wages, agents fees) is limited to the sum total of:

 

- Income from transfers but I am unclear on whether this is the fee received or surplus above amortised value.

 

- 75% (falling to 60% in a second season) of income from matchday, TV, sponsorship.  I assume parachute payments come in here.

 

- 60% of owner investment.

 

The upshot is that we can survive if:

 

- We manage to unload most/all of the high earners.  Any fees would be a bonus.

 

- Top is willing to plough huge amounts in.  Running costs of Seagrave are reported at £50m so I think he could cover that and matched it with a similar sum to go towards player costs.

 

- We come straight back up or at worst it takes 2 seasons.

 

Any of these falls and I think we are screwed.  Not in absolute financial terms because I can’t see Top letting us go into Admin but I can see repeated points deductions, transfer embargoes etc.

 

I haven’t even tried to work out how Championship PSR would be affected if we went back up.  It’s too depressing.

You would indeed imagine that the parachute payments would count in the 75% income but as I posted in the other thread if, as seems likely that the 26/27 parachute payment has already been drawn down then it’s probable that that significant sum can’t be included in the calculations. 

My take of the process in the EFL1 is that it’s restricted to a simple equation namely cash in allows you to spend in year 1 some 75% of cash received reduced to 60% in year 2.

 

There clearly is a lot more detail and as they say the  devil is in the detail. One thing for instance I haven’t quite worked out is how ST monies received in 25/26 in advance of the 26/27 season will count. This income is what they call deferred income in accounting terms. But you can be pretty sure that most of the ST money received prior to the end of the accounting year will be spent as it hits the bank.
 

All that I know is obvious but what will happen is that players that the club will be looking at signing players who will be wanting deals that will have heavy incentives if promotion is achieved which in turn will uplift the sum spent when under squad cost .

 

It’s a mess where should relegation happen promotion needs to happen immediately but the reckless spending and the association with threat Aussie bank potentially will be a major stumbling block for some while.

 

 

[Ian Nacho]

Shows how bad it has got as I'd have Mike Ashley over King Power any day. 

[Tommy G]

1 hour ago, CUJimmy said:

If I am understanding this correctly our player expenditure (transfer/loan fees, wages, agents fees) is limited to the sum total of:

 

- Income from transfers but I am unclear on whether this is the fee received or surplus above amortised value.

 

- 75% (falling to 60% in a second season) of income from matchday, TV, sponsorship.  I assume parachute payments come in here.

 

- 60% of owner investment.

 

The upshot is that we can survive if:

 

- We manage to unload most/all of the high earners.  Any fees would be a bonus.

 

- Top is willing to plough huge amounts in.  Running costs of Seagrave are reported at £50m so I think he could cover that and matched it with a similar sum to go towards player costs.

 

- We come straight back up or at worst it takes 2 seasons.

 

Any of these falls and I think we are screwed.  Not in absolute financial terms because I can’t see Top letting us go into Admin but I can see repeated points deductions, transfer embargoes etc.

 

I haven’t even tried to work out how Championship PSR would be affected if we went back up.  It’s too depressing.

Seagrave doesnt cost a £1m a week to run, not sure where you've heard that from but that's complete bullocks

[Les-TA-Jon]

14 hours ago, em9999 said:

There is nothing any of us can do about it and to be honest there are much more important things in life to worry about 

 

Whats the point in the mellow dramatics 

 

57 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

You could take this fool's point for anything..If the national portrait gallery burned down. Notre Dame. Stonehenge bulldozed. That tree on BBC chopped down. If Oxford University went bankrupt. Or maybe just a local restaurant open for 142 years closed due to lack of interest. 

 

There's nothing we can do. And there are much more important things going on..

 

It's all just melodrama. 

Exactly. I see this kind of thing said in all sorts of online communities - for various different points of interest - and it always makes my eyes roll into the back of my head. 

 

It's just totally redundant and pointless 'analysis' 

 

Of course there are much more important things in life to worry about that the current state of your chosen football team, but of all the places to discuss those worries, a forum set up to specifically set up to talk about said football club is the place to do it!

[Terraloon]

1 hour ago, Tommy G said:

Seagrave doesnt cost a £1m a week to run, not sure where you've heard that from but that's complete bullocks

Costs such as rates, utilities, insurance, away travel cost around £500k a week.

 

At one point, admittedly a few years ago we were told that the KP was costing £5m a year.

 

 

[Blue ROI]

1 hour ago, Ian Nacho said:

Shows how bad it has got as I'd have Mike Ashley over King Power any day. 

I'd take Mike Flowers Pops over the useless Nepo Baby

[CUJimmy]

2 hours ago, Terraloon said:

You would indeed imagine that the parachute payments would count in the 75% income but as I posted in the other thread if, as seems likely that the 26/27 parachute payment has already been drawn down then it’s probable that that significant sum can’t be included in the calculations. 

My take of the process in the EFL1 is that it’s restricted to a simple equation namely cash in allows you to spend in year 1 some 75% of cash received reduced to 60% in year 2.

 

There clearly is a lot more detail and as they say the  devil is in the detail. One thing for instance I haven’t quite worked out is how ST monies received in 25/26 in advance of the 26/27 season will count. This income is what they call deferred income in accounting terms. But you can be pretty sure that most of the ST money received prior to the end of the accounting year will be spent as it hits the bank.
 

All that I know is obvious but what will happen is that players that the club will be looking at signing players who will be wanting deals that will have heavy incentives if promotion is achieved which in turn will uplift the sum spent when under squad cost .

 

It’s a mess where should relegation happen promotion needs to happen immediately but the reckless spending and the association with threat Aussie bank potentially will be a major stumbling block for some while.

 

 

I took it directly from the EFL documentation on their website so I am pretty confident what I said is correct.  We can spend all of what we get in from transfers but only a percentage of other income/investment.  The percentage we can spend drops still further if we were relegated to league 2.  I am not sure what happens to the loan advance either but as the basis for compliance is not spending more than 75% of revenue on player related items rather than overall losses it probably just falls into the other 25% so might not be relevant.  Obviously there is a huge risk in using transfer money to pay wages because you can only do that once.  It’s like selling your family silver to pay the leccy bill.  Whichever way you cut it though it’s a shitshow.

[Gamble92]

3 hours ago, Wasyls Pec Deck said:

In this article it says the board think the squad is worth £200m - though not clear if that is the current squad. It also think it says the whole squad would need to be sold in order to cover the financial black hole.

 

However the transfermarkt website has the squad value at €145m, but that includes loan players and those out of contract. When you take those out, the value is estimated at €105m. I’m also not clear on how realistic some of these valuations are for a club in our situation. 
 

I guess it is another way of saying that even if we sold everyone we’re still ****ed.

 

 

We don't need to pay off the £200m in a year though. It's being paid off about £20m a year isn't it? I might be wrong. 

 

Selling Fatawu and a few others will at least keep us going for a while.