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davieG

The EU referendum - IN / OUT or Shake it all about.

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Posted

For me it's  not about nationalism it's  about size and the EU is now just too big to operate efficiently and for the benefit of all members, I think the same about big conglomerate  businesses. 

 

The EU is too diverse in it's  make up as well,  yes countries are adopting the best (and worst sadly) from other nations but not enough to living in relative harmony are with less self interest one could argue that nationalism is too strong. 

 

Maybe in 50 to 100 years when it's become more homogenised it'll  be possible. 

Posted

The pinned pole is interesting - unscientific I know, but certainly looks like there's a mind shift.

 

Poll.

 

Don't get ahead of yourself. We don't start pinning Poles until after the referendum.

Posted

The pinned pole is interesting - unscientific I know, but certainly looks like there's a mind shift.

I took from the poll that whilst many leave voters are vocal and visual in their support, there are more remain voters who don't feel the need to shout it at the top of their lungs. Much the same way the Scottish referendum went. Obviously 200 votes on FT doesn't give a strong indication of the whole population.

Posted

I took from the poll that whilst many leave voters are vocal and visual in their support, there are more remain voters who don't feel the need to shout it at the top of their lungs. Much the same way the Scottish referendum went. Obviously 200 votes on FT doesn't give a strong indication of the whole population.

Yes to some degree - but there's certainly been a change since Thursday (and perhaps unsurprisingly).

Posted

I thought a football forum would be leaning slightly closer to Leave. Although I always sense the majority of foxestalkers are 20-30ish.

 

Of course it could just be DJ Barry with multiple accounts....

Guest CityFan 06
Posted

Yeah I found the EU poll for FoxesTalk interesting. I also find the BBC and other EU polls interesting, I know it isn't a definite, clear indication of the outcome, but find it interesting nevertheless on what folks think.

Posted

Your response demonstrates your nationalist outlook. A nation doesn't inevitably lose its independence by pooling some of its sovereignty in an international organisation.

The UK pools its sovereignty over defence in NATO, and then there's the UN.....the "United Nations". Similarly, LCFC doesn't cease to be an independent football club by pooling sovereignty in the Premier League.

Even more pertinently, the nation of England pools its sovereignty in the nation state of the UK. I'm unclear whether you're an English nationalist or a British nationalist (a partisan of the nation state of the UK), though.

 

I can understand your reluctance to describe yourself as a "nationalist", given some of its connotations (particularly at the moment). But nationalism isn't necessarily associated with the Far Right or people opposed to democracy. Plaid Cymru, the SNP and the SDLP are among many parties that would describe themselves as "nationalists".

 

I assume that you're a nationalist and a democrat - but that your attitude to Brexit is mainly motivated by your nationalism. Your reply seems to confirm that - even a democratically elected Commission would be invalid, it seems.

 

 

 

 

Thracian's reply, in contrast, seems to confirm that he is a nationalist - and NOT a democrat!  :D

 

 

I'm quite Europe-supportive but from an independent national platform. However, I'm not a federalist and can't recall the British people ever sanctioning the idea of federalism. I'm not much of a democrat. You only need to see how often football clubs change their manager to realise how often people get it wrong.  

Posted

I took from the poll that whilst many leave voters are vocal and visual in their support, there are more remain voters who don't feel the need to shout it at the top of their lungs. Much the same way the Scottish referendum went. Obviously 200 votes on FT doesn't give a strong indication of the whole population.

You forgot to mention the general election.

Facebook and twitter were full of labour supporters before the election , just as it's full of leave supporters now.

Posted

For me it's  not about nationalism it's  about size and the EU is now just too big to operate efficiently and for the benefit of all members, I think the same about big conglomerate  businesses. 

 

The EU is too diverse in it's  make up as well,  yes countries are adopting the best (and worst sadly) from other nations but not enough to living in relative harmony are with less self interest one could argue that nationalism is too strong. 

 

Maybe in 50 to 100 years when it's become more homogenised it'll  be possible. 

 

 

People will vote Leave or Remain for a range of different reasons.

 

It sounds as if your tendency towards Leave is for practical, pragmatic reasons - integration getting too deep and too wide too quickly. Others on here clearly see the nation state as the highest valid level for democracy (or for enlightened dictatorship in Thracian's case  :D). Others again are not nationalists, but support Leave because they are dissatisfied with democracy at EU level. 

 

I was very close to ending up in the "Leave for democracy" category, but have now decided to vote Remain. I'm pretty concerned about the lack of democracy under EMU/Eurozone, in particular, and where this is heading politically and economically. Under EMU/Stability Pact, all EU nations are obliged to keep deficits and debt low at all times. That's a reasonable ambition over the economic cycle, but sometimes, during a downturn (or after a crash!), the stimulus of higher public spending or lower taxes is necessary to get the economy moving again. Instead, struggling economies around Europe are being forced to cut, cut and cut again, despite low growth and high unemployment. This inflexibility isn't working - and these struggling economies keep needing bailouts. If EMU/ Eurozone/Stability Pact isn't reformed to allow nations more flexibility, that is completely unsustainable - and very damaging. My hope of a car crash being avoided is because it is a slow-motion car crash: the crisis will eventually become so obvious that reforms allowing greater flexibility will be introduced - or a few nations will be allowed to leave the Euro on a controlled basis, creating a 2-tier Europe, I hope....  :o

 

The EEC/EU was very diverse from the 1970s to the 2000s, but dealt with that diversity pretty successfully. A seriously under-developed nation (Ireland) and 3 nations that had recently been under-developed AND dictatorships (Spain, Portugal & Greece) were helped to become stable democracies, valuable trading partners and nations whose level of development was no longer far behind the rest. The same process started with the former Communist dictatorships of Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, the combination of global financial crisis, Eurozone debt crisis & the inflexible Stability Pact has been a triple whammy that has sent that successful process into reverse. So, the EU CAN handle diversity - it just needs to take it a bit slower, not rushing into excessive integration of diverse economies, and to allow countries much more flexibilty in their policies.

 

Here are my main reasons for voting Remain:

- The aforementioned hope that the Eurozone IS capable of reform

- Serious risk of a return to violence in N. Ireland if we re-militarize the Irish border (which we'd have to do, surely, if we're serious about "controlling our borders"? Non-EU migrants wouldn't be an issue as Rep. of Ireland isn't in Schengen, but EU migrants certainly would as Rep. of Ireland will surely remain in the Single Market, so subject to the free movement of EU labour/citizens).

- Probability of Scotland leaving the UK within a few years, which I wouldn't like and which would create ANOTHER land border that we'd need to control if Brexiteers are serious about immigration, which I assume they are.

- For reasons of self-interest, the EU27 will probably take a hard line renegotiating trade deals and we don't hold a strong hand as trade with the EU is much more important to the UK than trade with the UK is to the EU (45%-53% of trade v. 16% of trade). In particular, if we want to opt out of "free movement of labour", we'll surely HAVE to be outside the Single Market...and on what terms re. tariffs etc?

- Uncertainty alone will cause a 2-3-year downturn, at a time when our growth and finances are already a problem.

- It generally takes many years to negotiate a good trade deal, yet the assumption is that the UK will have such deals in place on good terms within 2 years (after which we'll be outside EU trade deals)?!

- Next few years in the UK: likely economic downturn + continued austerity + continued high immigration -> Serious problems with a creaking NHS & serious risk of social unrest / rise of Far Right as people get skint, public services decline & there's still perceived to be a massive influx of immigrants (with Brexit, even IDS doesn't expect immigration levels to fall significantly until after 2020).

- Brexit could also exacerbate economic problems and social unrest on the continent - at a time when unemployment and discontent are already high and the Far Right is on the rise

- People will vote Leave for all sorts of reasons, but Brexit risks being seen on the continent as a selfish, unfriendly act, which could generate a lot of hostility against us, turning relations with our neighbours toxic

- In the UK, too, all sorts of nasty Far Right types will (wrongly) see a Brexit vote as a massive boost, giving them carte blanche to pursue their ugly politics.

- If relations between the UK and its neighbours do become toxic, will that undermine the strength of NATO? How will that affect security vis-a-vis Russia etc?

- There is presumably a reason why the vast majority of City types and the vast majority of scientists are pro-Remain (e.g. Swiss scientists are now excluded from EU joint science projects after opting out of "free movement")

 

I accept that some of those risks may well be avoided, but some definitely won't - and even a couple of those risks becoming reality could be disastrous.

 

I accept that Brexit MIGHT make things better long-term, if we do good trade deals, handle an enormous amount of legislation brilliantly - and particularly if the Eurozone continues to enforce failing policies.....but it MIGHT make things worse long-term.

 

It seems like a gamble either way - but, on balance, Remain seems much the better gamble.

Posted

People will vote Leave or Remain for a range of different reasons.

It sounds as if your tendency towards Leave is for practical, pragmatic reasons - integration getting too deep and too wide too quickly. Others on here clearly see the nation state as the highest valid level for democracy (or for enlightened dictatorship in Thracian's case :D). Others again are not nationalists, but support Leave because they are dissatisfied with democracy at EU level.

I was very close to ending up in the "Leave for democracy" category, but have now decided to vote Remain. I'm pretty concerned about the lack of democracy under EMU/Eurozone, in particular, and where this is heading politically and economically. Under EMU/Stability Pact, all EU nations are obliged to keep deficits and debt low at all times. That's a reasonable ambition over the economic cycle, but sometimes, during a downturn (or after a crash!), the stimulus of higher public spending or lower taxes is necessary to get the economy moving again. Instead, struggling economies around Europe are being forced to cut, cut and cut again, despite low growth and high unemployment. This inflexibility isn't working - and these struggling economies keep needing bailouts. If EMU/ Eurozone/Stability Pact isn't reformed to allow nations more flexibility, that is completely unsustainable - and very damaging. My hope of a car crash being avoided is because it is a slow-motion car crash: the crisis will eventually become so obvious that reforms allowing greater flexibility will be introduced - or a few nations will be allowed to leave the Euro on a controlled basis, creating a 2-tier Europe, I hope.... :o

The EEC/EU was very diverse from the 1970s to the 2000s, but dealt with that diversity pretty successfully. A seriously under-developed nation (Ireland) and 3 nations that had recently been under-developed AND dictatorships (Spain, Portugal & Greece) were helped to become stable democracies, valuable trading partners and nations whose level of development was no longer far behind the rest. The same process started with the former Communist dictatorships of Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, the combination of global financial crisis, Eurozone debt crisis & the inflexible Stability Pact has been a triple whammy that has sent that successful process into reverse. So, the EU CAN handle diversity - it just needs to take it a bit slower, not rushing into excessive integration of diverse economies, and to allow countries much more flexibilty in their policies.

Here are my main reasons for voting Remain:

- The aforementioned hope that the Eurozone IS capable of reform

- Serious risk of a return to violence in N. Ireland if we re-militarize the Irish border (which we'd have to do, surely, if we're serious about "controlling our borders"? Non-EU migrants wouldn't be an issue as Rep. of Ireland isn't in Schengen, but EU migrants certainly would as Rep. of Ireland will surely remain in the Single Market, so subject to the free movement of EU labour/citizens).

- Probability of Scotland leaving the UK within a few years, which I wouldn't like and which would create ANOTHER land border that we'd need to control if Brexiteers are serious about immigration, which I assume they are.

- For reasons of self-interest, the EU27 will probably take a hard line renegotiating trade deals and we don't hold a strong hand as trade with the EU is much more important to the UK than trade with the UK is to the EU (45%-53% of trade v. 16% of trade). In particular, if we want to opt out of "free movement of labour", we'll surely HAVE to be outside the Single Market...and on what terms re. tariffs etc?

- Uncertainty alone will cause a 2-3-year downturn, at a time when our growth and finances are already a problem.

- It generally takes many years to negotiate a good trade deal, yet the assumption is that the UK will have such deals in place on good terms within 2 years (after which we'll be outside EU trade deals)?!

- Next few years in the UK: likely economic downturn + continued austerity + continued high immigration -> Serious problems with a creaking NHS & serious risk of social unrest / rise of Far Right as people get skint, public services decline & there's still perceived to be a massive influx of immigrants (with Brexit, even IDS doesn't expect immigration levels to fall significantly until after 2020).

- Brexit could also exacerbate economic problems and social unrest on the continent - at a time when unemployment and discontent are already high and the Far Right is on the rise

- People will vote Leave for all sorts of reasons, but Brexit risks being seen on the continent as a selfish, unfriendly act, which could generate a lot of hostility against us, turning relations with our neighbours toxic

- In the UK, too, all sorts of nasty Far Right types will (wrongly) see a Brexit vote as a massive boost, giving them carte blanche to pursue their ugly politics.

- If relations between the UK and its neighbours do become toxic, will that undermine the strength of NATO? How will that affect security vis-a-vis Russia etc?

- There is presumably a reason why the vast majority of City types and the vast majority of scientists are pro-Remain (e.g. Swiss scientists are now excluded from EU joint science projects after opting out of "free movement")

I accept that some of those risks may well be avoided, but some definitely won't - and even a couple of those risks becoming reality could be disastrous.

I accept that Brexit MIGHT make things better long-term, if we do good trade deals, handle an enormous amount of legislation brilliantly - and particularly if the Eurozone continues to enforce failing policies.....but it MIGHT make things worse long-term.

It seems like a gamble either way - but, on balance, Remain seems much the better gamble.

I disagree with your decision. I speak to a lot of people interested he EU. With work and family. Europe is moving towards the right, all nations lime Britain are sick of immigration, the EU will fall and break up. Europeans are sick of not being in control of there legislation and especially immigration.
Posted

People will vote Leave or Remain for a range of different reasons.

 

It sounds as if your tendency towards Leave is for practical, pragmatic reasons - integration getting too deep and too wide too quickly. Others on here clearly see the nation state as the highest valid level for democracy (or for enlightened dictatorship in Thracian's case  :D). Others again are not nationalists, but support Leave because they are dissatisfied with democracy at EU level. 

 

I was very close to ending up in the "Leave for democracy" category, but have now decided to vote Remain. I'm pretty concerned about the lack of democracy under EMU/Eurozone, in particular, and where this is heading politically and economically. Under EMU/Stability Pact, all EU nations are obliged to keep deficits and debt low at all times. That's a reasonable ambition over the economic cycle, but sometimes, during a downturn (or after a crash!), the stimulus of higher public spending or lower taxes is necessary to get the economy moving again. Instead, struggling economies around Europe are being forced to cut, cut and cut again, despite low growth and high unemployment. This inflexibility isn't working - and these struggling economies keep needing bailouts. If EMU/ Eurozone/Stability Pact isn't reformed to allow nations more flexibility, that is completely unsustainable - and very damaging. My hope of a car crash being avoided is because it is a slow-motion car crash: the crisis will eventually become so obvious that reforms allowing greater flexibility will be introduced - or a few nations will be allowed to leave the Euro on a controlled basis, creating a 2-tier Europe, I hope....  :o

 

The EEC/EU was very diverse from the 1970s to the 2000s, but dealt with that diversity pretty successfully. A seriously under-developed nation (Ireland) and 3 nations that had recently been under-developed AND dictatorships (Spain, Portugal & Greece) were helped to become stable democracies, valuable trading partners and nations whose level of development was no longer far behind the rest. The same process started with the former Communist dictatorships of Eastern Europe. Unfortunately, the combination of global financial crisis, Eurozone debt crisis & the inflexible Stability Pact has been a triple whammy that has sent that successful process into reverse. So, the EU CAN handle diversity - it just needs to take it a bit slower, not rushing into excessive integration of diverse economies, and to allow countries much more flexibilty in their policies.

 

Here are my main reasons for voting Remain:

- The aforementioned hope that the Eurozone IS capable of reform

- Serious risk of a return to violence in N. Ireland if we re-militarize the Irish border (which we'd have to do, surely, if we're serious about "controlling our borders"? Non-EU migrants wouldn't be an issue as Rep. of Ireland isn't in Schengen, but EU migrants certainly would as Rep. of Ireland will surely remain in the Single Market, so subject to the free movement of EU labour/citizens).

- Probability of Scotland leaving the UK within a few years, which I wouldn't like and which would create ANOTHER land border that we'd need to control if Brexiteers are serious about immigration, which I assume they are.

- For reasons of self-interest, the EU27 will probably take a hard line renegotiating trade deals and we don't hold a strong hand as trade with the EU is much more important to the UK than trade with the UK is to the EU (45%-53% of trade v. 16% of trade). In particular, if we want to opt out of "free movement of labour", we'll surely HAVE to be outside the Single Market...and on what terms re. tariffs etc?

- Uncertainty alone will cause a 2-3-year downturn, at a time when our growth and finances are already a problem.

- It generally takes many years to negotiate a good trade deal, yet the assumption is that the UK will have such deals in place on good terms within 2 years (after which we'll be outside EU trade deals)?!

- Next few years in the UK: likely economic downturn + continued austerity + continued high immigration -> Serious problems with a creaking NHS & serious risk of social unrest / rise of Far Right as people get skint, public services decline & there's still perceived to be a massive influx of immigrants (with Brexit, even IDS doesn't expect immigration levels to fall significantly until after 2020).

- Brexit could also exacerbate economic problems and social unrest on the continent - at a time when unemployment and discontent are already high and the Far Right is on the rise

- People will vote Leave for all sorts of reasons, but Brexit risks being seen on the continent as a selfish, unfriendly act, which could generate a lot of hostility against us, turning relations with our neighbours toxic

- In the UK, too, all sorts of nasty Far Right types will (wrongly) see a Brexit vote as a massive boost, giving them carte blanche to pursue their ugly politics.

- If relations between the UK and its neighbours do become toxic, will that undermine the strength of NATO? How will that affect security vis-a-vis Russia etc?

- There is presumably a reason why the vast majority of City types and the vast majority of scientists are pro-Remain (e.g. Swiss scientists are now excluded from EU joint science projects after opting out of "free movement")

 

I accept that some of those risks may well be avoided, but some definitely won't - and even a couple of those risks becoming reality could be disastrous.

 

I accept that Brexit MIGHT make things better long-term, if we do good trade deals, handle an enormous amount of legislation brilliantly - and particularly if the Eurozone continues to enforce failing policies.....but it MIGHT make things worse long-term.

 

It seems like a gamble either way - but, on balance, Remain seems much the better gamble.

I needed turning by a nurse after reading that lot..still got a sore.. you are wrong by the way..

Posted

I needed turning by a nurse after reading that lot..still got a sore.. you are wrong by the way..

Why don't you tell him why? You never discuss, only dismiss.

Posted

His change in position doesn't make logical sense given his stated reasons.

He says he's against an EU Army as he sees that as dangerous - yet Britain coming out of the EU does nothing to stop things going into that direction. In fact, it could conceivably make that direction more likely.

It would make more sense to back a Remain vote on the understanding the UK government opposes an the idea of an EU Army (which it does).

Posted

I needed turning by a nurse after reading that lot..still got a sore.. you are wrong by the way..

 

 

I'd welcome your explaining why. i thought it a thoroughly interesting read, particularly Alf's views about potential problems on the Northern Ireland border with Eire.

 

There were important points not mentioned, like the future of Turkey in Europe and the call to form an EU army which concerned me but it was refreshing to read specific reasons for wanting to remain being sincerely expressed.

 

For me it was more food for thought. More argument that I considered worth exploring.  

Posted

I needed turning by a nurse after reading that lot..still got a sore.. you are wrong by the way..

 

 

I appreciate that I'm a gasbag, but it seems like an important - and complicated - decision to me. You apparently see it as a simple decision. Fair dos.

 

Why not humour me and show me why I'm wrong on just one of my points. Northern Ireland, say....

 

After Brexit, we'll take back control of our borders to restrict EU immigration, apparently. We currently have an open land border with the Republic of Ireland, a country that will still be in the EU with free movement of EU citizens.

So, unless we reinstate a tightly-controlled border between the Republic and the North, in theory thousands of Romanians and Poles could fly to Dublin, pop up to the North - and then anywhere else in the UK.

If we do set up a series of border posts, they will be viewed as a provocation and a target by dissident Republicans, won't they? Should armed forces be assigned to protect them - and wouldn't that risk undermining the Peace Process and restarting violence between at least some IRA elements, Loyalists & the British army, maybe spilling over into terrorist attacks in England?

 

I might indeed be wrong about this and about all my other points. Or I might be right and you might be wrong, Seems like a whole series of massive gambles, to me (though Remain involves some big gambles, too....just fewer, I reckon).

 

What nationality was your nurse?  :whistle:

Posted

The Irish border debate always seems to focus on the movement of people across it - which is fair enough to some degree, but perhaps the more important thing to consider is the movement of goods, which would also need to be controlled - and is a lot harder to find a solution for than people.

Posted

 

a)- Serious risk of a return to violence in N. Ireland if we re-militarize the Irish border (which we'd have to do, surely, if we're serious about "controlling our borders"? Non-EU migrants wouldn't be an issue as Rep. of Ireland isn't in Schengen, but EU migrants certainly would as Rep. of Ireland will surely remain in the Single Market, so subject to the free movement of EU labour/citizens).

 

b)- Probability of Scotland leaving the UK within a few years, which I wouldn't like and which would create ANOTHER land border that we'd need to control if Brexiteers are serious about immigration, which I assume they are.

 

c)- In the UK, too, all sorts of nasty Far Right types will (wrongly) see a Brexit vote as a massive boost, giving them carte blanche to pursue their ugly politics.

 

a)I don't see why it should and if it did are we really going to be dictated to by terrorists?

 

b)I want to keep the union but not at any price. As for the borders and immigration from Ireland and Scotland I'm sure we could make our own arrangements with those countries for their citizens. If illegals wanted to use those countries as a point of entry into the remainder of the UK it doesn't mean they'd have the right to stay.

 

c) Come on Alf, you don't really think those types are waiting for our permission to hate or that we're more likely to agree with them if we're not in the EU? Extreme racist parties will gain far more by having mass immigration forced upon us and having the legitimate concerns of people dismissed.

Posted

I'm not getting what I want so it's not democratic.

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