Why top 4 will be a tough slog

[ranieri99]

Over the last 10 premier league seasons, the average number of points needed to finish in 4th place is 67.

32 more points needed for average number.

Now this might sound okay as we have just achieved 35 points in 16 games - but due to the way we play and playing the same group of players week in week out, tiredness will definitely kick in.

I noticed against Chelsea - the last 15 mins the players looked absolutely shattered. That is a worry for me.

This is the reason top teams usually always come out in top, as they have massive squads.

Can we achieve 32 more points?

As an aside - for all those who believe we can win the title. The average number of points needed over the last 10 seasons has been 84.

(these numbers are to have 1 more point than 2nd place or 1 more point than 5th place for the top 4 averages)

Even if we Double the number of points we have currently we wouldn't win the league. It's bonkers to even think we will win the league unfortunately. But as claudio says we can dream.

[Lestoh]

Have you watched any of our other games? Our fitness is one of our best qualities. I personally didn't notice any of them looking tired towards the end of Chelsea, but if they were it's not exactly a surprise. Despite Chelsea's awful form, they're still a side with the ability to cut defences open, and so you have to chase them to close it down. When you consider the possession game that Chelsea play, it's obviously going to be fatiguing.

We still have a reasonable amount of depth in the squad, and we can still improve if Claudio deems it necessary in January. Don't forget, this is the guy who finished 2nd in the PL - he knows what he's in for.

[Number 6]

Over the last 10 premier league seasons, the average number of points needed to finish in 4th place is 67.

32 more points needed for average number.

Now this might sound okay as we have just achieved 35 points in 16 games - but due to the way we play and playing the same group of players week in week out, tiredness will definitely kick in.

I noticed against Chelsea - the last 15 mins the players looked absolutely shattered. That is a worry for me.

This is the reason top teams usually always come out in top, as they have massive squads.

Can we achieve 32 more points?

As an aside - for all those who believe we can win the title. The average number of points needed over the last 10 seasons has been 84.

(these numbers are to have 1 more point than 2nd place or 1 more point than 5th place for the top 4 averages)

Even if we Double the number of points we have currently we wouldn't win the league. It's bonkers to even think we will win the league unfortunately. But as claudio says we can dream.

Think both those points totals required could be lower this year.

[Oxfordfox83]

Over the last 10 premier league seasons, the average number of points needed to finish in 4th place is 67.

32 more points needed for average number.

Now this might sound okay as we have just achieved 35 points in 16 games - but due to the way we play and playing the same group of players week in week put, tiredness will definitely kick in.

I noticed against Chelsea - the last 15 mins the players looked absolutely shattered. That is a worry for me.

This is the reason top teams usually always come out in top, as they have massive squads.

Can we achieve 32 more points?

As an aside - for all those who believe we can win the title. The average number of points needed over the last 10 seasons has been 84.

(these numbers are to have 1 more point than 2nd place or 1 more point than 5th place for the top 4 averages)

Even if we Double the number of points we have currently we wouldn't win the league. It's bonkers to even think we will win the league unfortunately. But as claudio says we can dream.

U wot m8?

Unlikely, possibly. Bonkers it is not. We have a strong, fit and well-managed team, decent back ups and a sensational team spirit. The big squads each have issues with fitness, poor management, bad attitudes or a lack of depth in key positions. Yeah, history and probability are against us, and you would be poorly advised to bet money you couldn't afford on us winning the league, but to write us off so completely is ridiculous...

[Benji]

Even if we Double the number of points we have currently we wouldn't win the league. It's bonkers to even think we will win the league unfortunately. But as claudio says we can dream.

 

 

Based on points totals from irrelevant previous seasons, you mean?

 

I don't for one minute think we will double our current total, but if we did we would probably win the league.  Look at the table.

[kingcarr21]

I think Leicester fans just need to remember that our aim at the start of the season was survival. People just need to try and enjoy the rest of the season with no pressure of being relegated. If we don't make the top 4 then so be it. It will be disappointing after the start we have made but I worry that fans will actually complain if we finish 5th.

 

I think fans would be pleasantly surprised in the players we have as back up. Benny/Was at CB, King/Inler in CM, Kramaric as a striker. These players will be desperate to get in on the action especially with us being top of the league. Im certain when called upon they will do a job for us. We have some great youngsters as well.

 

There is too much dreaming going on and we need to stay grounded. If we are anywhere near the top with 6 games to go then start to believe. Right now though just be glad we aren't anywhere near the bottom 3.

[ranieri99]

Based on points totals from irrelevant previous seasons, you mean?

I don't for one minute think we will double our current total, but if we did we would probably win the league. Look at the table.

Well Chelsea won the league with 87 points last season - after 16 games they had 39 points.

Second place was man city with 79 points - after 16 games they had 36 points (1 more point than us at this stage)

Both teams more than doubled there points tally for remainder of season.

[My Nads]

It's not half way through the season, so it's not right to talk about doubling our total just yet. We are the best team in the league, so until I see anything to suggest otherwise it's bonkers to say we wont win.

[Finnaldo]

I think Leicester fans just need to remember that our aim at the start of the season was survival. People just need to try and enjoy the rest of the season with no pressure of being relegated. If we don't make the top 4 then so be it. It will be disappointing after the start we have made but I worry that fans will actually complain if we finish 5th.

 

I think fans would be pleasantly surprised in the players we have as back up. Benny/Was at CB, King/Inler in CM, Kramaric as a striker. These players will be desperate to get in on the action especially with us being top of the league. Im certain when called upon they will do a job for us. We have some great youngsters as well.

 

There is too much dreaming going on and we need to stay grounded. If we are anywhere near the top with 6 games to go then start to believe. Right now though just be glad we aren't anywhere near the bottom 3.

 

Survival was the aim when we were an unknown quantity most had down for relegation. Now we know we're a bloody good team and at least solid in every position and with the big six teams either faltering or being as incompetent as usual, we really should be aiming for that top four spot, this could be realistically the only chance we'll ever have.

[HighPeakFox]

Two things - someone said there's too much dreaming going on. I say dream on everyone, how often does this sort of thing happen? If we cannot dream, it becomes a drab old world.

 

Secondly, someone else mentioned history being against us, and although I can well understand that point of view, history has nothing to do with it.......I agree the probability is that we won't hang on, but then the probability was for relegation last season.

 

At this stage, many wonderful things are possible, so I will go for dreaming of the possible.

[NotTheMarketLeader]

I think Leicester fans just need to remember that our aim at the start of the season was survival. People just need to try and enjoy the rest of the season with no pressure of being relegated. If we don't make the top 4 then so be it. It will be disappointing after the start we have made but I worry that fans will actually complain if we finish 5th.

I think fans would be pleasantly surprised in the players we have as back up. Benny/Was at CB, King/Inler in CM, Kramaric as a striker. These players will be desperate to get in on the action especially with us being top of the league. Im certain when called upon they will do a job for us. We have some great youngsters as well.

There is too much dreaming going on and we need to stay grounded. If we are anywhere near the top with 6 games to go then start to believe. Right now though just be glad we aren't anywhere near the bottom 3.

Agreed to a point.

It is difficult however to put the thoughts of top 4 out of ones mind when we keep getting all these stats thrown at us stating, for example, no club has amassed such a total and not finished in the top 4.

The Champions League carrot has been dangled and I'm sure it would be tasty, so I do think 'the powers that be' should be doing business in January in an attempt to take advantage of an opportunity that no doubt we have got, which may not come around so easily in the future.

The money is there - we clearly need another top quality striker, as has been said, Vardy and Mahrez can't do it every week for another 6 months surely.

It's clear to me Ulloa is not good enough for the level we currently aspire to, and it's asking a hell of a lot for Krama to take the PL by storm when basically he's played no football for a year. So in summary maybe it could be a case of:

He who dares wins?

[AKCJ]

Well Chelsea won the league with 87 points last season - after 16 games they had 39 points.

Second place was man city with 79 points - after 16 games they had 36 points (1 more point than us at this stage)

Both teams more than doubled there points tally for remainder of season.

You know we're not half way through yet, right?

[les-tah]

Over the last 10 premier league seasons, the average number of points needed to finish in 4th place is 67.

32 more points needed for average number.

Now this might sound okay as we have just achieved 35 points in 16 games - but due to the way we play and playing the same group of players week in week out, tiredness will definitely kick in.

I noticed against Chelsea - the last 15 mins the players looked absolutely shattered. That is a worry for me.

This is the reason top teams usually always come out in top, as they have massive squads.

Can we achieve 32 more points?

As an aside - for all those who believe we can win the title. The average number of points needed over the last 10 seasons has been 84.

(these numbers are to have 1 more point than 2nd place or 1 more point than 5th place for the top 4 averages)

Even if we Double the number of points we have currently we wouldn't win the league. It's bonkers to even think we will win the league unfortunately. But as claudio says we can dream.

I agree we did look tired but Ranieri should of made the subs so much earlier...

[Nick]

Think both those points totals required could be lower this year.

Agreed. Chelsea had 39 at this stage last year.

[ARM1968]

The way this season is panning out I would imagine around 6pts less at least all round for champions and top 4. Whether we make it or not it has been one hell of a ride so far. Let's enjoy it and see where we go. Top 4 would be utterly magical.

[Julian Joachim Jr Shabadoo]

Each week goes by it gets a little less bonkers to think we might actually do it this year. Say we beat Everton and Arsenal v Man City is a draw this weekend, we'd be 4 points clear. January sees us play Bournemouth, Spurs, Villa and Stoke and with our form we'll be taking a lot of points there. Personally I think the longer we can keep this up, the more likely it is for Arsenal, Man City and Utd to stumble as the pressure on them to win will be immense

Our position will provide a big lure for any potential signings too. What a fantastic position we find ourselves in!

[Captain...]

Looking at points totals is irrelevant, at the moment we are in the strongest position to win the league as we have the most points, there is no magic number of points to win the league, just the requirement that you have more than everyone else, and everyone else is dropping stupid points, our most disappointing result of the season is drawing with Bournemouth, every other big team has dropped points to the teams in the relegation fight. 

 

But it will be difficult to maintain this form, and there is a reason why we aren't favourites to win the league, in some ways I think it will be better for us to not be top on the first of January as it takes the pressure off, we can chase the leaders and put the pressure on them, whilst being ecstatic if we finish top 4.

 

At times we look phenomenal, but other times, like the last half an hour against Chelsea, we look like an underdog hanging on against a big side, we look like a side that has been punching above its weight and not a title winning side.

[davieG]

It's a tough slog for any team to make the top four.

 

For a team like Leicester it will almost certainly be about peaks and troughs, well it has up to now and I've  lived through too many troughs to not enjoy and dream about potential peaks.

 

I'm  still the eternal pessimist that thinks we'll  draw or lose every game but that won't stop me enjoying the results  and the inevitable potential.

 

Having lived through the shite every goal and every point we get gives me massive satisfaction and joy and each one adds to the dream of 'just maybe this is our year'.

 

If it ends up not to be then I can add it to all the other lcfc disappointments and it won't be a real surprise.

 

Keep dreaming 

[NotTheMarketLeader]

Each week goes by it gets a little less bonkers to think we might actually do it this year. Say we beat Everton and Arsenal v Man City is a draw this weekend, we'd be 4 points clear. January sees us play Bournemouth, Spurs, Villa and Stoke and with our form we'll be taking a lot of points there. Personally I think the longer we can keep this up, the more likely it is for Arsenal, Man City and Utd to stumble as the pressure on them to win will be immense

Our position will provide a big lure for any potential signings too. What a fantastic position we find ourselves in!

This is true.

We need to recruit from a position of strength, which we could have in January being in the top 4. It will make a massive difference, compared to last summer in terms of players wanting to come here. Let's not forget none of Aranguiz, Inler or Kante wanted to come - now I would hope it would be a different story.

Strike while iron is hot, and let's ride this baby I say.

[DB11]

Have you watched any of our other games? Our fitness is one of our best qualities. I personally didn't notice any of them looking tired towards the end of Chelsea

They were shattered!

[My Nads]

Each week goes by it gets a little less bonkers to think we might actually do it this year. Say we beat Everton and Arsenal v Man City is a draw this weekend, we'd be 4 points clear. January sees us play Bournemouth, Spurs, Villa and Stoke and with our form we'll be taking a lot of points there. Personally I think the longer we can keep this up, the more likely it is for Arsenal, Man City and Utd to stumble as the pressure on them to win will be immense

Our position will provide a big lure for any potential signings too. What a fantastic position we find ourselves in!

It's not bonkers at all JJJS! OK it is a bit bonkers when you think we are in a position to win the league, but we are in a position to win the league! I'm fully committed to expecting a top four now and we could quite easily win it. Arsenal, Man City and Man U are more likely to drop points than us, they're not solid teams. I really can see us pulling out a bigger lead, because we wont drop off. Last season showed how we can finish. We didn't look tired at all. Just because every other "small team" that got into the top 4 drops off, it doesn't mean we will. West Ham have already done it, but we haven't we've got even better as the season have gone on. Yeah, it will be interesting to see if CR tries to bring in a player that we wouldn't normally be able to attract. Offer £20m for Hernandez Claudio, he could get revenge on Man U when we win the title!    

[Gerard]

As for the tiredness factor, I remember Man City playing Sunderland in their first round league cup match and they put out more or less there best XI. I was very surprised at this as they were already in the middle of a Champions League group. They played Sat - Tue - Sat but seven outfield players played all three games. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/34253381 What's also inyteresting here is that they were 4-0 up on 36 mins and he still didn't take off his players until late in the game.

 

Kolarov

Otamendi

Sagna

Toure

Sterling

De Bruyne

Aguerro

 

Are first XI have had it relatively easy this season as they didn't play many minutes in our League Cup campaign. We have quite a heavy fixture list for the next six weeks but if Man City player can play twice a week for most of the season then so should we. Saying that I'd be quite happy to send a hybrid team to our FA Cup match as the league is absolute priority this season.

 

Maybe Huth and DD being out for a game isn't a bad thing either as they recharge their batteries a bit for the next six weeks.

[Gerard]

They were shattered!

 

Apart from Kante who hadn't even got a sweat on despite covering every blade of grass on that pitch. 

[Gerard]

This is true.

We need to recruit from a position of strength, which we could have in January being in the top 4. It will make a massive difference, compared to last summer in terms of players wanting to come here. Let's not forget none of Aranguiz, Inler or Kante wanted to come - now I would hope it would be a different story.

Strike while iron is hot, and let's ride this baby I say.

 

Breel Embolo please. He can play No 10 and also could replace Vardy if we lost him for a game or two. It's important we get in someone pacey as if Vardy isn't there it just changes the whole dynamics of the team. 

[Captain...]

As for the tiredness factor, I remember Man City playing Sunderland in their first round league cup match and they put out more or less there best XI. I was very surprised at this as they were already in the middle of a Champions League group. They played Sat - Tue - Sat but seven outfield players played all three games. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/34253381 What's also inyteresting here is that they were 4-0 up on 36 mins and he still didn't take off his players until late in the game.

 

Kolarov

Otamendi

Sagna

Toure

Sterling

De Bruyne

Aguerro

 

Are first XI have had it relatively easy this season as they didn't play many minutes in our League Cup campaign. We have quite a heavy fixture list for the next six weeks but if Man City player can play twice a week for most of the season then so should we. Saying that I'd be quite happy to send a hybrid team to our FA Cup match as the league is absolute priority this season.

 

Maybe Huth and DD being out for a game isn't a bad thing either as they recharge their batteries a bit for the next six weeks.

 

Huth can recharge his batteries Drinkwater is injured so he will be recuperating. I am hoping that the 2 that come in really step up and show that we can rotate Huth, Morgan and Benny during the Christmas period, or Kante, Inler, King, Drinkwater without a significant drop off.

 

Not having a European distraction will be a massive benefit to us, but it didn't help West Ham, Southampton or Swansea last season, they all fell away and the big 6 reverted to type, I don't see Arsenal going much further in the CL, the Manchesters, Spurs + Liverpool will hopefully be distracted a bit longer.