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EU referendum opinion poll.

EU referendum poll.  

149 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you wish the UK to remain in or leave the EU?

    • Remain
      54
    • Leave.
      63
    • Not sure
      32


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I've been going through the entire thread myself and have to say kudos to you for excellent replies, explanations and general patience!

I've certainly learned a few things from them, but I also see the problem - people in this referendum will vote on their gut, and it's the out campaign that's dominating all the "gut turning slogans / ideas", they're providing simple answers that evade the reality - where as no one on the "Remain" side is doing anything of the sort really, in fact it seems a lot of the remain side feel afraid to shout out why they lean this way.

You've provided excellent answers, but because they're not bite size and easy to understand, they're dismissed. That does make sense in a way, because people are time poor and have been used to being spoon fed what they should think, plus the way the world is at the moment it's a lot easier to vent at a institution its them, they've done it, so if we get rid of them it will all change... but generation after generation fool themselves in thinking that at general election time only to be disapointed.

So unless there is a very silent but willing majority that are willing to secretly vote remain, I can see the UK voting to exit in June... and things then becoming a gigantic mess as Wales, Scotland and Northern Island all squabble over what they want to do. A mini political civil war if you will.

It's certainly going to be a close run thing.  You make a lot of good points there, maybe I should change my approach.

 

"Britain's going to build a series of pro-UK EU reforms and who's going to cover the cost of the legislative process?"  "Germany!"  "Who else?"  "France!"  "Who else?"  "The other 26 EU member states not already mentioned including us!"

 

It needs a bit of work.

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Carl - your fighting an impossible position really, but it's admirable.

It's not made any easier given how complex the EU animal is, which is understandable given what it is and is set out to do - and the fact that some of those for it don't fully understand it, let alone those against.

But I shall leave this link below in the hope that someone might have a quick look

http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/about/index_en.htm

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Carl - your fighting an impossible position really, but it's admirable.

It's not made any easier given how complex the EU animal is, which is understandable given what it is and is set out to do - and the fact that some of those for it don't fully understand it, let alone those against.

But I shall leave this link below in the hope that someone might have a quick look

http://europa.eu/about-eu/basic-information/about/index_en.htm

Brave, I've been deliberately avoiding providing any literature with a .eu domain for obvious reasons.  Expect to take some flak for that.

 

But you are right the whole thing is far too complex to jump straight into and expect to gain a quick and thorough understanding, I'd hardly say I have a full grasp of it all so I try to stick to the areas I do know about and let others interject elsewhere or else do some research first if I really must respond to a post, I've learned a fair bit through this thread.

 

I disagree that it is an impossible position, in fact you help me retain a certain amount of optimism; the facts speak for themselves and the more the leave voters bang the undemocratic, law imposing, deal-shredding drum the easier it is to make the many undecided voters see how baseless those arguments are much like you appear to have done.

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Where has anyone said anything that remotely suggests that?  Please quote the comments which demonstrate those views.

 

Do you honestly believe that?  Just think about it for a second.  If you do, could you please enlighten us which persons started a common currency area with absolute certainty that it wouldn't work and are now calling people on your side of the argument these things 17 years later?

 

 

In your defence you did start that comment by openly admitting you've been drinking.

Read back, "my vote makes no difference, sovereignty doesn't matter" etc

 

As for the Euro, there was plenty of discussion across Europe in the run up to it's implementation. The pilot project, The ERM was a disaster. All what has happened was widely predicted. There were no good economic arguments for it but we had exactly the same accusations against the antis. Little Englanders , racism, xenophobia. The whole project was political to push forward a Federal Superstate.

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Have the people who keep pushing the democratic EU line completely forgot the behaviour shown towards Greece? It might not have happened to us but they have shown if they really want to they will interfere over the will of the people to get what they want - even to the point of dragging elected officials into Brussels to humiliate them and pressuring them to resign, you can throw all the supposed rules and treaties they are supposed to abide by at us all you want but you simply aren't going to fool people into thinking Merkel and the troika didn't force elected officials out of the Greek government through threats, bullying and pressure.

 

The Greek people voted for a government that wanted to implement a totally different economy model to the rest of Europe, it was probably one that going to head for disaster and certainly one I would never want to follow but the fact remains that is what the people voted for and that's what they should have got.

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Giles Fraser was great on Question Time, I never though I'd say that.

 

He made a terrific point about the Labour party as well and how it's gone missing in this debate, given around 30% of Labour voters are expected to vote to leave how can the party be so unrepresentative of the voters?

 

The idea of just sitting back and hoping the Tories tear themselves apart is one that could seriously backfire, with MP's in the Tory party split down the middle it at least looks like now they haven't taken a side as a party, if they work it well they could benefit from that as a party that was prepared to put the country above it's own interests.

 

Labour could end up making exactly the same mistake as they did in Scotland here, completely alienating themselves from a substantial porportion of the electoral in a close referendum.

 

As for Diane Abbott, I've never seen anything like it.
 

 

DA: I want the people to have a choice.

 

JHB: You voted against the referendum in 2011.

 

DA: No I didn't.

 

JHB: You didn't vote against it in 2011?

 

DA: I am loyal Labour MP.

 

We are seriously suppose to vote for a Labour government with that as International development secretary, although that said Liz Truss wasn't much better, starting to get the feeling the obsession with getting as many women into parliament is leaving us with some real second rate politicians.

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As a Labour supporter  I would have hoped that some of the northern MP's would have spoken out against the EU knowing that UKIP are decimating their support up there but the neoliberal corporate giants in the party cast a large shadow. Labour need to realise that their core support are Eurosceptic, pro-nationalisation and anti-austerity. Basically everything the EU isn't.
 

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As a Labour supporter  I would have hoped that some of the northern MP's would have spoken out against the EU knowing that UKIP are decimating their support up there but the neoliberal corporate giants in the party cast a large shadow. Labour need to realise that their core support are Eurosceptic, pro-nationalisation and anti-austerity. Basically everything the EU isn't.

 

I wasn't around but from what I gather Labour had a very healthy Eurosceptic wing the 70's.

 

The Corbyn position I just find absolutely ridiculous, how anyone can seriously vote against this in 1975 and but vote for what it has become in 2016 just doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever.

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As a Labour supporter  I would have hoped that some of the northern MP's would have spoken out against the EU knowing that UKIP are decimating their support up there but the neoliberal corporate giants in the party cast a large shadow. Labour need to realise that their core support are Eurosceptic, pro-nationalisation and anti-austerity. Basically everything the EU isn't

There are also things they agree on.

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Giles Fraser was great on Question Time, I never though I'd say that.

 

He made a terrific point about the Labour party as well and how it's gone missing in this debate, given around 30% of Labour voters are expected to vote to leave how can the party be so unrepresentative of the voters?

 

The idea of just sitting back and hoping the Tories tear themselves apart is one that could seriously backfire, with MP's in the Tory party split down the middle it at least looks like now they haven't taken a side as a party, if they work it well they could benefit from that as a party that was prepared to put the country above it's own interests.

 

Labour could end up making exactly the same mistake as they did in Scotland here, completely alienating themselves from a substantial porportion of the electoral in a close referendum.

 

As for Diane Abbott, I've never seen anything like it.

 

 

We are seriously suppose to vote for a Labour government with that as International development secretary, although that said Liz Truss wasn't much better, starting to get the feeling the obsession with getting as many women into parliament is leaving us with some real second rate politicians.

 

 

As a lefty with mixed feelings about the EU, I agree and would like to hear more of the "in" and "out" arguments from a centre-left perspective. Otherwise, the risk is that the whole debate is conducted on centre-right terms - British political independence v. protecting British business/jobs - Cameron and his mates v. Boris & Nigel. 

 

The majority of the parliamentary Labour Party are now pro-EU (unlike 1983, when Labour campaigned for withdrawal from the EEC), but a number aren't - and I'm talking about people on the left of the party, not just mavericks like Kate Hoey. I don't see Labour having a lot to lose from having people on both sides of the argument speak openly - and much to gain from pushing more "left" issues like social/regional policy, employment rights, development & internationalism up the agenda. I can only guess that Corbyn's heart isn't in a pro-EU argument and he doesn't want to fight his own party on too many fronts by arguing for withdrawal. If so, that's a misjudgement, as this is a massive issue with the potential to change politics/the economy for decades and to contribute to the break-up of the UK. Is any Labour voice being heard yet? I know Alan Johnson is out there for the "in" crowd, but I think I've only seen Cameron & co, Boris & Farage on the TV news - and I pay closer attention than the average punter.

 

However, I'm not sure that any party is going to alienate a substantial proportion of its electorate. It almost certainly will be a fairly close vote, I think, but previous polling suggests that comparatively few election votes are decided by Europe, despite all the hot air it generates - and the strong feelings in certain quarters (mainly, but not entirely on the Right). I suspect that most people - in England, at least - will accept the outcome and move on. The migration issue could be massive and ongoing, but it's the Tories who are in power and who risk more ire if that continues, and high net immigration remains a big issue (unfair, to some extent, as it's a collective failure of the EU, not just the Tories - but c'est la vie, Labour got blamed for the global financial crash!)

 

Even with my neutral hat on, Liz Truss doesn't impress me - though the realisation that she was starting infants class when I was doing my A-levels depresses me! She was conducting an extra-marital affair with a Tory MP before she got into parliament, wasn't she? But few prominent Tories do come across well, even if I try to be neutral: Boris, Sajid Javid; Gove is a thinking man if you listen to him, but few get past his quirky speech and resemblance to a septic boil; people clearly tolerate Cameron, at least, but he seems horribly smarmy and entitled to me. The rest seem stiff, bland or incompetent. The same applies to most Labour politicians. Exceptions? Umunna, Benn... Can't think of any convincing lefties apart from Caroline Lucas! I'm still frustrated that Alan Johnson didn't stand for leader in 2010; if he had, I honestly think that we'd now have a Labour government or coalition.

 

I don't accept the argument that Boris will be a spent force if we vote to stay in the EU. He'd be able to tell his party and the electorate, "look, I did my best, but now we need to get on, batting for Britain in the EU". The UK has the status within Europe and he has the personality that I don't see his "anti" status disrupting UK-EU relations if the vote is "Yes" (and it might well be "No").

 

Has Osborne said anything yet? If Labour is keeping its head down, so is Osborne - for obvious reasons of personal ambition, I presume. The UK Chancellor can hardly stand on the sidelines, surely? Awkward one for him.  :D

 

Could be a massive year in politics, though, and a lot could change: poor May elections and Corbyn could be gone - but replaced by who? Tory leadership election in the offing - and Cameron would surely have to go immediately if we vote to leave the EU? Potentially, 2+ years of economic/political turbulence and UK-EU argument if we vote to leave....and the distinct possibility that England might vote "Out" and Scotland "In". Hold onto your hats!

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As a lefty with mixed feelings about the EU, I agree and would like to hear more of the "in" and "out" arguments from a centre-left perspective. Otherwise, the risk is that the whole debate is conducted on centre-right terms - British political independence v. protecting British business/jobs - Cameron and his mates v. Boris & Nigel. 

 

The majority of the parliamentary Labour Party are now pro-EU (unlike 1983, when Labour campaigned for withdrawal from the EEC), but a number aren't - and I'm talking about people on the left of the party, not just mavericks like Kate Hoey. I don't see Labour having a lot to lose from having people on both sides of the argument speak openly - and much to gain from pushing more "left" issues like social/regional policy, employment rights, development & internationalism up the agenda. I can only guess that Corbyn's heart isn't in a pro-EU argument and he doesn't want to fight his own party on too many fronts by arguing for withdrawal. If so, that's a misjudgement, as this is a massive issue with the potential to change politics/the economy for decades and to contribute to the break-up of the UK. Is any Labour voice being heard yet? I know Alan Johnson is out there for the "in" crowd, but I think I've only seen Cameron & co, Boris & Farage on the TV news - and I pay closer attention than the average punter.

 

However, I'm not sure that any party is going to alienate a substantial proportion of its electorate. It almost certainly will be a fairly close vote, I think, but previous polling suggests that comparatively few election votes are decided by Europe, despite all the hot air it generates - and the strong feelings in certain quarters (mainly, but not entirely on the Right). I suspect that most people - in England, at least - will accept the outcome and move on. The migration issue could be massive and ongoing, but it's the Tories who are in power and who risk more ire if that continues, and high net immigration remains a big issue (unfair, to some extent, as it's a collective failure of the EU, not just the Tories - but c'est la vie, Labour got blamed for the global financial crash!)

 

Even with my neutral hat on, Liz Truss doesn't impress me - though the realisation that she was starting infants class when I was doing my A-levels depresses me! She was conducting an extra-marital affair with a Tory MP before she got into parliament, wasn't she? But few prominent Tories do come across well, even if I try to be neutral: Boris, Sajid Javid; Gove is a thinking man if you listen to him, but few get past his quirky speech and resemblance to a septic boil; people clearly tolerate Cameron, at least, but he seems horribly smarmy and entitled to me. The rest seem stiff, bland or incompetent. The same applies to most Labour politicians. Exceptions? Umunna, Benn... Can't think of any convincing lefties apart from Caroline Lucas! I'm still frustrated that Alan Johnson didn't stand for leader in 2010; if he had, I honestly think that we'd now have a Labour government or coalition.

 

I don't accept the argument that Boris will be a spent force if we vote to stay in the EU. He'd be able to tell his party and the electorate, "look, I did my best, but now we need to get on, batting for Britain in the EU". The UK has the status within Europe and he has the personality that I don't see his "anti" status disrupting UK-EU relations if the vote is "Yes" (and it might well be "No").

 

Has Osborne said anything yet? If Labour is keeping its head down, so is Osborne - for obvious reasons of personal ambition, I presume. The UK Chancellor can hardly stand on the sidelines, surely? Awkward one for him.  :D

 

Could be a massive year in politics, though, and a lot could change: poor May elections and Corbyn could be gone - but replaced by who? Tory leadership election in the offing - and Cameron would surely have to go immediately if we vote to leave the EU? Potentially, 2+ years of economic/political turbulence and UK-EU argument if we vote to leave....and the distinct possibility that England might vote "Out" and Scotland "In". Hold onto your hats!

 

Farage's ego is already blowing up, he's gone and sacked his deputy now because she's joined "Vote Leave" - this is the project that has Kate Hoey, Carswell, all the Tories sceptics, Boris, Gove etc it's the place to be and I actually like the fact he's on a different platform with Galloway, hopefully it means he'll just be appealing to the fringes whose vote is already secured at events and not on television making the more educated and positive arguments for British independance.

 

Boris is certainly not a spent force, he's in an absolutely perfect position and has played the game perfectly, he's going to be leader if we come out, he's going to be leader if we stay in, the Tory membership is very Eurosceptic and they'll be taking him over whoever he's up against in the next leadership election. As for Osbourne, I can see him doing a Corbyn and trying to stay out of the debate as much as possible, if he has genuine leadership ambitions for reasons I mention above he won't get to close to any stay campaign.

 

Alan Johnson - Always said he would be leader and highly possible he would have been Prime Minister, fortunately for your opponents I think any chance that happening is long gone now.

 

Did you watch the Daily Politics yesterday? Great interview with Andrew Neil and Chuka Umanna, Neil pointed out to him just how much the Labour membership has changed recently (he said 40% of members now weren't members in 2010) and there is probably no place for people like him in it anymore, certainly no chance of anyone from his wing becoming a leader again, give it a watch if you haven't, I knew lots of people had joined Labour (250,000) but I also didn't realise nearly 100,000 had left, a lot of those probably previously active on the doorsteps as well.

 

It's going to be an incredible year, I do think Corbyn will see it through now though, he's got his feet and his people in now, even if he does go the membership will just vote in Ken Livingstone or John McDonnell to replace him.

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As a lefty with mixed feelings about the EU, I agree and would like to hear more of the "in" and "out" arguments from a centre-left perspective. Otherwise, the risk is that the whole debate is conducted on centre-right terms - British political independence v. protecting British business/jobs - Cameron and his mates v. Boris & Nigel. 

 

The majority of the parliamentary Labour Party are now pro-EU (unlike 1983, when Labour campaigned for withdrawal from the EEC), but a number aren't - and I'm talking about people on the left of the party, not just mavericks like Kate Hoey. I don't see Labour having a lot to lose from having people on both sides of the argument speak openly - and much to gain from pushing more "left" issues like social/regional policy, employment rights, development & internationalism up the agenda. I can only guess that Corbyn's heart isn't in a pro-EU argument and he doesn't want to fight his own party on too many fronts by arguing for withdrawal. If so, that's a misjudgement, as this is a massive issue with the potential to change politics/the economy for decades and to contribute to the break-up of the UK. Is any Labour voice being heard yet? I know Alan Johnson is out there for the "in" crowd, but I think I've only seen Cameron & co, Boris & Farage on the TV news - and I pay closer attention than the average punter.

 

However, I'm not sure that any party is going to alienate a substantial proportion of its electorate. It almost certainly will be a fairly close vote, I think, but previous polling suggests that comparatively few election votes are decided by Europe, despite all the hot air it generates - and the strong feelings in certain quarters (mainly, but not entirely on the Right). I suspect that most people - in England, at least - will accept the outcome and move on. The migration issue could be massive and ongoing, but it's the Tories who are in power and who risk more ire if that continues, and high net immigration remains a big issue (unfair, to some extent, as it's a collective failure of the EU, not just the Tories - but c'est la vie, Labour got blamed for the global financial crash!)

 

Even with my neutral hat on, Liz Truss doesn't impress me - though the realisation that she was starting infants class when I was doing my A-levels depresses me! She was conducting an extra-marital affair with a Tory MP before she got into parliament, wasn't she? But few prominent Tories do come across well, even if I try to be neutral: Boris, Sajid Javid; Gove is a thinking man if you listen to him, but few get past his quirky speech and resemblance to a septic boil; people clearly tolerate Cameron, at least, but he seems horribly smarmy and entitled to me. The rest seem stiff, bland or incompetent. The same applies to most Labour politicians. Exceptions? Umunna, Benn... Can't think of any convincing lefties apart from Caroline Lucas! I'm still frustrated that Alan Johnson didn't stand for leader in 2010; if he had, I honestly think that we'd now have a Labour government or coalition.

 

I don't accept the argument that Boris will be a spent force if we vote to stay in the EU. He'd be able to tell his party and the electorate, "look, I did my best, but now we need to get on, batting for Britain in the EU". The UK has the status within Europe and he has the personality that I don't see his "anti" status disrupting UK-EU relations if the vote is "Yes" (and it might well be "No").

 

Has Osborne said anything yet? If Labour is keeping its head down, so is Osborne - for obvious reasons of personal ambition, I presume. The UK Chancellor can hardly stand on the sidelines, surely? Awkward one for him.  :D

 

Could be a massive year in politics, though, and a lot could change: poor May elections and Corbyn could be gone - but replaced by who? Tory leadership election in the offing - and Cameron would surely have to go immediately if we vote to leave the EU? Potentially, 2+ years of economic/political turbulence and UK-EU argument if we vote to leave....and the distinct possibility that England might vote "Out" and Scotland "In". Hold onto your hats!

Seems a fair enough assessment but given the apparent extent of your interest and commitment to politics it's a bit scary to think even you've still got "mixed feelings" on Europe. We've all got to make a firm decision on the subject soon and I'd at least like to read your views, reasoning and any conclusions (out of respect I can promise and not with any desire to take pot shots for the sake of it).

Me I'm not at all happy with the way the EU has evolved but that doesn't mean I can predict, or am not concerned, about the risks in leaving or even which are real as opposed to imagined or pretended by commentators.

I'm not fence sitting. I think I'll vote out. But my mind will remain open while there's time. I want what's best for this country and its people whether I necessarily like what has to be put up with or not. There are many things I'll likely disagree with whatever direction is taken.

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Does Andrew Neil ever ask a question then sit back and let someone answer? Every time I listen to his programme I have to turn off because I can't stand his constant interruptions and efforts to unsettle people.

 

If they are going away from what he asks he'll jump in immediately, I'll defend Neil at any cost though, love him and there is a reason why no political party will let their big beats be interviewed by him.

 

I've not watched today's episode yet but it looks a good one, Peter Hitchins as a guest and Neil v Natalie Bennett Round 2, that should be good for a laugh.

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If they are going away from what he asks he'll jump in immediately, I'll defend Neil at any cost though, love him and there is a reason why no political party will let their big beats be interviewed by him.

 

I've not watched today's episode yet but it looks a good one, Peter Hitchins as a guest and Neil v Natalie Bennett Round 2, that should be good for a laugh.

 

She hasn't let me down - "We breath European air, air doesn't stop at the borders, no one controls fish stocks, fish don't have passports" lol

 

How on earth did this lot grab a million votes?

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Have the people who keep pushing the democratic EU line completely forgot the behaviour shown towards Greece? It might not have happened to us but they have shown if they really want to they will interfere over the will of the people to get what they want - even to the point of dragging elected officials into Brussels to humiliate them and pressuring them to resign, you can throw all the supposed rules and treaties they are supposed to abide by at us all you want but you simply aren't going to fool people into thinking Merkel and the troika didn't force elected officials out of the Greek government through threats, bullying and pressure.

 

The Greek people voted for a government that wanted to implement a totally different economy model to the rest of Europe, it was probably one that going to head for disaster and certainly one I would never want to follow but the fact remains that is what the people voted for and that's what they should have got.

Isn't the Greek situation a lot more difficult than you make out though?

For example I'm pretty sure the sitting government at the time used a referenda as a political tool to try and force it's way (for the benefit of Greece) but in reality knew it was a pretty underhand tactic and so blocking "the people's will" as you might say isn't completely fair given that as the EU is representing a collective group of nations you have to draw the line somewhere - the Grexit situation threatened a lot more people than just the Greek population.

This line of thinking also makes me ponder another possible unintended consequence us leaving the EU and that would be if we ended up being the trigger for the entire EU project to completely crash.

We know this is a defining moment for the project with tensions and situations quite high and I have no doubt that some on here would instantly see that prospect as a good thing.

BUT, could that scenario be potentially catastrophic for everyone concerned because you'd have so much unwinding, infighting and general chaos and non-understanding between countries. Suddenly, there's 27 new individual competitors on our door steps all with different trade rules and outlooks batting for their self interest, rather than co-operating, looking for common ground for the benefits of a shared interest.

Ultimately the EU is never going to be perfect for everyone, it can't be, so it's essentially a question of whether you feel we as a country are better served as a larger collective with a partial say (it would be unfair for us to expect us to have complete sway in matters when you are representing 28 countries interests) OR a smaller individual nation with complete say.

And a point on the contentious issue - the free movement of people. The reason the EU has that as a core belief is to do with its core freedom of trade principles, in that goods can move freely between nations therefore so should people who provide their services (if you consider the notion that anyone who has a job is to a degree self employed in that they had to offer their services to that employer).

The problem this country has had is not with the numbers of people coming - its been the poor management by successive governments of dealing with this.

Had social housing stock not been sold off on the cheap / more built, had schools and hospital services not been run down in the 80's / 90's meaning it required so much investment just to bring it back to scratch in the early 21st century, it was a UK governments choice to provide "in work benefits" and the like which then became available to any EU citizen eligible, so had so many other things been implemented not on a party political interest but in a nations interest, I don't think we'd be having the same debate that we're having now.

So beware of those that suggest the EU is the big cause of all our problems - we were in the EU when things were much better and it didn't seem to stop us much then so why should be such a problem now?

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Does Andrew Neil ever ask a question then sit back and let someone answer? Every time I listen to his programme I have to turn off because I can't stand his constant interruptions and efforts to unsettle people.

He only really does that to the smaller parties, it's as if he's been given a directive by the EU, who co-fund his wages at the BBC, and yet, they only give them a few minutes to speak.

 

That said, it's wonderful watching that filthy Green leader almost vomit to get herself heard  :D

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As aware as she is about how our wind actually comes from the Atlantic.

That not true - The majority of our weather fronts come from the Atlantic but not all of them.

 

I understand your sentiment - but if you are going to show somebody up for getting something wrong don't counter with an inaccurate statement yourself.

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Had social housing stock not been sold off on the cheap / more built, had schools and hospital services not been run down in the 80's / 90's meaning it required so much investment just to bring it back to scratch in the early 21st century, it was a UK governments choice to provide "in work benefits" and the like which then became available to any EU citizen eligible, so had so many other things been implemented not on a party political interest but in a nations interest, I don't think we'd be having the same debate that we're having now.

So beware of those that suggest the EU is the big cause of all our problems - we were in the EU when things were much better and it didn't seem to stop us much then so why should be such a problem now?

a)The social housing that was sold off is still being lived in so that's nothing to do with a housing shortage. You can't plan how many houses need to be built when you don't know how many people are coming in. When Labour allowed the Eastern Europeans to enter the country they predicted 17,000 would come, it didn't work out like that.

 

b) Hospitals were not run down during the 80s and 90s. There were many new hospitals built.

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