Harry - LCFC Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 It's actually just over 5% of the time. We should win this but it's far from a foregone conclusion. We need 3pts or to rely on Tottenham dropping more points. The route to 3pts is either to win one of our remaining games or draw all three. It will be a tough ask to go away at Man Utd & Chelsea and either win or get two draws. If we don't do that we have to beat Everton or it's in Tottenham's hands. I can easily see a feasible scenario for the remainder of the season where we fail to win the league. Betfair has Tottenham at about a 5% chance. This price isn't plucked out of thin air but a derivative of the prices in the six games left that Tottenham and Leicester have. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280148 I don't agree with that. I've done my own calculations with the assistance of odds posted on by bookies and got about half that. Admittedly not as low as I thought though.
Vulpecula Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Reading threads like these give me butterflies, with all the (over?) analyses of permutations. I'm confident we'll do it and hoping we can do it on Sunday. As a contingency though, I'm hoping Chelsea beat Spurs, Southampton qualify for Europe and Newcastle survive!
David Hankey Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Superb post and not just relating to the underground.
Gerard Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 For the "done & dusted" crew out there: How confident will you be if Spurs beat Chelsea and we fail to beat Everton?
AKCJ Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 For the "done & dusted" crew out there: How confident will you be if Spurs beat Chelsea and we fail to beat Everton? 100% if we beat Man United.
anotherwin Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 If we do this.....and we should.....I'm going to wish I'd enjoyed this season more, because as it draws to an end, if I'm honest sometimes it's been quite painful, I have lost sleep on a couple of occasions, I know it's daft! after a win it's elation, then Spurs play and it's trepidation and worry! I'm 64 and I've been waiting for the improbable to happen for years, and now it looks like it will. I can see me bursting into tears when we do, as the relief would be overpowering.. I hope we do it Sunday, so I can at least enjoy the last two games.. I'm a bit of a worrit arse ain't I?
Gerard Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Those figures are derived on what Betfair is willing to offer to generate profit rather than actual probability. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. I'm a professional gambler, if I could get 1/16 on a true 1/100 shot I'd have an obscene amount of money on it as would every other professional gambler. The odds are a derivative of the expected prices in the last six matches that Tottenham & Leicester have. If they were that far out they'd be backed into the true price very quickly. Betfair is seeded by professional gamblers, they don't come up with the prices themselves. Anyone laying 1/16 on a 1/100 shot will find themselves skint very quickly.
treer Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Those figures are derived on what Betfair is willing to offer to generate profit rather than actual probability. you are wrong, betfair doesn;t profit until settlement of wagers
ARM1968 Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Seriously? My mate is a giant Liverpool fan. He's 6'9" and supports the Scouse scum. All season he's been banging on about enjoying it. All season I've told him I havent. It's stressful. And it has been simply because anyone with half a brain cell could see just how big a chance this is for something utterly stupendous. Something none of us will likely see again. As it has drawn closer the realisation has grown, the pressure has grown. This hasn't been fun, it has been a bloody nightmare. Long may it continue - although I'd like the keague sewn up on Sunday.
Bluetintedspecs Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 You're welcomeHa ha ha, my post was not directed at you specifically anotherwin, I would have quoted you if so.My point remains, if Spurs had won as expected on Monday then fair enough a lot to do still. If we don't beat Yanited then a Spurs slip at Chelsea I am fully expecting. Their players, Pinnochiotino,Levy and fans looked beaten and crushed on Monday. Twitchy arses now I feel incredulous, we've lost 3 ALL SEASON.
Gerard Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 If we do this.....and we should.....I'm going to wish I'd enjoyed this season more, because as it draws to an end, if I'm honest sometimes it's been quite painful, I have lost sleep on a couple of occasions, I know it's daft! after a win it's elation, then Spurs play and it's trepidation and worry! I'm 64 and I've been waiting for the improbable to happen for years, and now it looks like it will. I can see me bursting into tears when we do, as the relief would be overpowering.. I hope we do it Sunday, so I can at least enjoy the last two games.. I'm a bit of a worrit arse ain't I? I've suffered this season. Up until November I really enjoyed our games. During December to February I still enjoyed it but not quite as much as CL and the title became more than a hopeful pipe dream. From March onwards I've suffered more and more as the season went on as we confirmed we're definitely in the race. I've actually woke up in the middle of the night worrying about Leicester and I've had anxiety feelings before matches, I guess it's because I want this so bad and I've never felt like this in promotion, relegation, play offs or cup finals. If we do win this then the suffering I've had to do will make this all the more sweeter rather than if we just breezed it. One of my pet hates on here and on Radio Leicester is people thinking this is "done and dusted", absolutely clueless,
ARM1968 Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Gerard - agreed. Morons!! That is why we fans suffer such stress and anxiety. Anyone supporting Leicester or any of the other 'also ran' clubs will have looked upon the top 4/5 of the Prem as mystical ground that only those annointed with riches can tread. We know what it is to lose. We know what it is to come close and fail. It's in our DNA. It's who we are. Winning the Premier League is not for us. It just isn't. No point dreaming. A stumbling cup run, a flirtation with Europe, mid table safety. Those are the things dreams are made of. But not this. Never this. We are so close to the utterly ludicrous I can smell it, but I've been a fan long enough to know never to celebrate until it is done. And if it does indeed get done, then we can all look back on the truly remarkable.
Kendal Fox Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Whilst I am confident we will close things out, I totally agree with this sentiment. And yes, since the end of January, I too have had seriously disrupted sleep, obsessive thoughts, almost mesmerised by it all but dreading to think what I will be like, should we blow it... So I totally concur, let's not jinx it now, at the 11th hour!
midland_red Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 It's actually just over 5% of the time. We should win this but it's far from a foregone conclusion. We need 3pts or to rely on Tottenham dropping more points. The route to 3pts is either to win one of our remaining games or draw all three. It will be a tough ask to go away at Man Utd & Chelsea and either win or get two draws. If we don't do that we have to beat Everton or it's in Tottenham's hands. I can easily see a feasible scenario for the remainder of the season where we fail to win the league. Betfair has Tottenham at about a 5% chance. This price isn't plucked out of thin air but a derivative of the prices in the six games left that Tottenham and Leicester have. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/football/market/1.118280148 Tnak you Gerard for cool and realistic analysis from a man who understands probability/. For all those who think this is over..... - the probability now favours us heavily - but the probability of Spurs winning (that is, we screw up) is not zero not is it infinetesimally small I so wish people would not think this is all done and dusted - it isn't. Spurs looked beaten in the last 15 mins again the Baggies, especially compared to the way we came back against WHU with ten men to get a penalty. But they still could bounce back. Suppose we lose at Man U...how will Spurs react then? The odds of us repeating 1963 have now declined...but pleas,e save the cheering for when we get our hands on the thing at last.
anotherwin Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Ha ha ha, my post was not directed at you specifically anotherwin, I would have quoted you if so. My point remains, if Spurs had won as expected on Monday then fair enough a lot to do still. If we don't beat Yanited then a Spurs slip at Chelsea I am fully expecting. Their players, Pinnochiotino,Levy and fans looked beaten and crushed on Monday. Twitchy arses now I feel incredulous, we've lost 3 ALL SEASON. hey no probs buddy! thanks for the reality check anyway!! maybe bursting into tears is a bit much, maybe just filling up! You're right though, I shouldn't be worrying now, it's been absolutely nuts this season, I just want us to finish the job now..... and parading the cup this Friday through town is doing my head in too, talk about tempting fate! who's idea was that anyway? If we do this Sunday.....I will get slightly pissed
AKCJ Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. I'm a professional gambler, if I could get 1/16 on a true 1/100 shot I'd have an obscene amount of money on it as would every other professional gambler. The odds are a derivative of the expected prices in the last six matches that Tottenham & Leicester have. If they were that far out they'd be backed into the true price very quickly. Betfair is seeded by professional gamblers, they don't come up with the prices themselves. Anyone laying 1/16 on a 1/100 shot will find themselves skint very quickly. If some bloke put a few million quid on Leicester (unlikely scenario of course) to win the league and the odds shortened does that mean the probability of us winning the league increases or does it literally just mean that one bloke thinks Leicester have a ridiculously high chance of winning the league? Odds are not derived absolutely from probability. That's my point. They play a large part in it, clearly. I'm just saying that probability isn't the only factor in a bookmaker's mind when setting a price. No need with the "couldn't me more wrong" line. Your holier than thou attitude stinks.
Kendal Fox Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Just to add, I'm not saying this to try and boast but I just spoke to an insider at the club and she said that whilst what is happening is truly amazing, 4 or 5 months ago, nobody there expected us to be in this position and that they - all the departments at LCFC - are working harder than they could ever have imagined and are only just keeping things together.So, if that is what someobody on the inside is saying, please, let's just take a step back and wait for it to be confirmed..
ithuriel Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 We are parading the cup through town? I have said three games ago we would now do it, still thought that after the West Ham game and think we still will but I am not one for parading the cup through town until it is lifted by Morgan when it is fairly won. Whose idea is this?
anotherwin Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Thanks Gerard, Midland Red I see I'm not the only one experiencing anguish Come on let's do it!!!
midland_red Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 Give me fvcking strength. here you go...strength
anotherwin Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 We are parading the cup through town? I have said three games ago we would now do it, still thought that after the West Ham game and think we still will but I am not one for parading the cup through town until it is lifted by Morgan when it is fairly won. Whose idea is this? It's in the Leicester Mockery today, something about 'Blue Friday' or some such bollocks
ithuriel Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 I know most if not all Leicester fans I talk to will find this cringe worthy.
AKCJ Posted 27 April 2016 Posted 27 April 2016 It's in the Leicester Mockery today, something about 'Blue Friday' or some such bollocks Surprised at the backlash they've got from it considering it literally is just to promote LCFC in schools and what not and to make money for charity. It happens at every Premier League club. It's not like they're taking it to the training ground for the squad to piss about with it.
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