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cecchini

It's not over yet - fat lady's not singing.

By cecchini, in Leicester City Forum

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Bluetintedspecs

Bluetintedspecs

Posted
Posted

hey no probs buddy! thanks for the reality check anyway!!

maybe bursting into tears is a bit much, maybe just filling up!

You're right though, I shouldn't be worrying now, it's been absolutely nuts this season, I just want us to finish the job now.....

and parading the cup this Friday through town is doing my head in too, talk about tempting fate! who's idea was that anyway?

If we do this Sunday.....I will get slightly pissed

Think the pollen count will be v high that day pal :)

Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted

If some bloke put a few million quid on Leicester (unlikely scenario of course) to win the league and the odds shortened does that mean the probability of us winning the league increases or does it literally just mean that one bloke thinks Leicester have a ridiculously high chance of winning the league?

 

Odds are not derived absolutely from probability. That's my point. They play a large part in it, clearly. I'm just saying that probability isn't the only factor in a bookmaker's mind when setting a price.

 

No need with the "couldn't me more wrong" line. Your holier than thou attitude stinks.

 

Not in a market that is as near to 100% straight as you can get. Also this is a market that has huge liquidity and can be perfectly hedged in the match odds on the six remaining matches.

 

If you know someone who wants as much as a billion quid on Leicester at 1/100, let alone a few million I have some contacts who will take that bet off him in a heartbeat because we'd make a killing hedging it in the match odds markets.

Free Falling Foxes

Free Falling Foxes

Posted
Posted

Even when it's all over and we are crowned champions there will be threads like these:

 

I've heard city will have a 10 points deduction because of FFP.

 

Player/s have failed a drug test - we may be deducted some points.

 

Gray's registration wasn't done properly - we may be deducted some points.

 

Those patterns on the pitch caused our opponents to have hallucinations - we may be deducted some points.

 

Our Sunday matches contravened Sunday trading laws - we may be deducted some points.

 

The Clappers are illegal - we may be deducted some points.

 

 

Just ENJOY this once in a lifetime achievement.

biggs

biggs

Posted
Posted

Whose not enjoying it? You can still be very very happy with the current situation without strutting about acting all billy big bolloocks, because you think it's won.

No doubt the same people who told us we were relegated last season before we were.

 

Lots have said they're not enjoying this anymore. I'm not one that thinks it's won, I'm just confident we will get it done. There's a difference

AKCJ

AKCJ

Posted
Posted

Not in a market that is as near to 100% straight as you can get. Also this is a market that has huge liquidity and can be perfectly hedged in the match odds on the six remaining matches.

 

If you know someone who wants as much as a billion quid on Leicester at 1/100, let alone a few million I have some contacts who will take that bet off him in a heartbeat because we'd make a killing hedging it in the match odds markets.

 

But you agree that odds aren't 100% on probability? That is my point.

 

I don't know where you've got this 1/100 thing by the way. You've said it yourself that the odds are around 1/16.

Bluetintedspecs

Bluetintedspecs

Posted
Posted

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

I'm a professional gambler, if I could get 1/16 on a true 1/100 shot I'd have an obscene amount of money on it as would every other professional gambler.

The odds are a derivative of the expected prices in the last six matches that Tottenham & Leicester have. If they were that far out they'd be backed into the true price very quickly. Betfair is seeded by professional gamblers, they don't come up with the prices themselves. Anyone laying 1/16 on a 1/100 shot will find themselves skint very quickly.

As a professional gambler Gerard please can you let me know what odds I would get for us winning title by end of this weekends matches including Monday obviously? Or even what price you would give me?

FireFox

FireFox

Posted
Posted

For the "done & dusted" crew out there:

How confident will you be if Spurs beat Chelsea and we fail to beat Everton?

Chelsea will roll over for us if we need a point or three. Anyone who thinks this isn't done is deluded.
Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted

As a professional gambler Gerard please can you let me know what odds I would get for us winning title by end of this weekends matches including Monday obviously? Or even what price you would give me?

 

67% chance it's over this week.

 

24.5% Leicester win

35% Tottenham lose

7.5% we both draw

Gerard

Gerard

Posted
Posted

Chelsea will roll over for us if we need a point or three. Anyone who thinks this isn't done is deluded.

 

I would argue anyone who assumes that Chelsea will roll over for us is deluded.

 

Do you think Costa will deliberately miss a goal or Courtois will deliberately let one in?

 

Chelsea may not be putting 100% effort in but if they find themselves 2-0 up with 20 mins to go they won't concoct a defeat. 

Thanks, see no need to be twitchy :)

 

I'm not twitchy but I will be if we aren't Champions this time next week.

fazzyfox

fazzyfox

Posted
Posted

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Think she'll be screaming her guts out by Monday night besides which my doctor has instructed that it can not go to the last game without a defibrillator being involved

inckley fox

inckley fox

Posted
Posted

I would argue anyone who assumes that Chelsea will roll over for us is deluded.

 

Do you think Costa will deliberately miss a goal or Courtois will deliberately let one in?

 

Chelsea may not be putting 100% effort in but if they find themselves 2-0 up with 20 mins to go they won't concoct a defeat. 

 

 

They're among the best paid professionals in the game. If they feel their professionalism is being questioned - as it is now in some areas of the media, thanks to comments by the likes of Fabregas - then they will do their best to demonstrate that they're good pros.

 

When you look at our fixtures, they're of equivalent difficulty to the run of games in which we played Man City, Arsenal etc., and came out with a good points haul, but also of similar difficulty to the run of three games when we only scraped together two.

 

So if we lose away at Man U, arguably the toughest fixture of the season, and it drives Spurs on to beat Chelsea then we'll face a key game against Everton, who have an outstanding away record. If we don't win, and Spurs respond to our failure with a home win, then it goes to an away game to the reigning champions, while their opponents could be relegated by then.

 

It's an unlikely scenario, but Spurs have won three on the bounce at times this season, and we've had a run which - if it had occurred at the same time - would have seen us drop seven points to Spurs. It's not unthinkable that the two occurrences will repeat now, facing these fixtures.

 

Matt Elliott and Muzzy Izzet both said that we collapsed in the 2000-01 season because we got carried away. This time around, I'd suggest we leave talking about the title in the past tense until we overcome the side that have only lost two games and conceded seven goals at home all season, or the one that's only lost three away all season, or the one that's still - as it stands - champions.

 

Alternatively, I'd be perfectly happy to accept Spurs stumbling again, but if we're depending on one of their results then we should remember that - no matter when the game is - they will be playing with the knowledge that they can close the gap on Leicester with a win. With or without Alli, and as long a shot as it is, it's a realistic enough scenario for people to delay talking about Spurs' chances as if they no longer exist.

 

It's far from a certainty yet. But if we focus, avoid being too flattened by any further twists that might occur and avoid the sort of arrogance which will allow Pochettino, Van Gaal, whoever's in charge of Everton and whoever's in charge of Chelsea to simply flash a few photos of Champions' scarves or social media messages in order to motivate their sides, then yes, we'll do it.

 

How? I don't care. It could be a hard-fought draw on Sunday which just reminds Spurs that we're not in the mood to give a title away, and which fails to ignite them sufficiently against Chelsea. I don't know. Maybe we'll blow United out of the water, or there'll be the fairy tale Vardy return in the next game. Maybe we scrape a point against Everton while they trip up against Southampton. However it pans out, I think we'll stand the best chance if Ranieri learns from the title he threw away against Roma, the players continue to profit from the high pressure situations they underwent in 2014 and 2015, and everyone else - fans, staff, friends, local journos  - remembers that we can help keep feet on the ground too.

fuchsntf

fuchsntf

Posted
Posted

Look !!! I couldnt find any fat ladies....What about Fat-blokes, we must have at least

20k to pick from...looking at the KP terraces every week.

+ After a few Vardy Vollies beer, they'll be up for a few good songs and chants...

Does that count..... :)

reynard

reynard

Posted
Posted

They're among the best paid professionals in the game. If they feel their professionalism is being questioned - as it is now in some areas of the media, thanks to comments by the likes of Fabregas - then they will do their best to demonstrate that they're good pros.

 

When you look at our fixtures, they're of equivalent difficulty to the run of games in which we played Man City, Arsenal etc., and came out with a good points haul, but also of similar difficulty to the run of three games when we only scraped together two.

 

So if we lose away at Man U, arguably the toughest fixture of the season, and it drives Spurs on to beat Chelsea then we'll face a key game against Everton, who have an outstanding away record. If we don't win, and Spurs respond to our failure with a home win, then it goes to an away game to the reigning champions, while their opponents could be relegated by then.

 

It's an unlikely scenario, but Spurs have won three on the bounce at times this season, and we've had a run which - if it had occurred at the same time - would have seen us drop seven points to Spurs. It's not unthinkable that the two occurrences will repeat now, facing these fixtures.

 

Matt Elliott and Muzzy Izzet both said that we collapsed in the 2000-01 season because we got carried away. This time around, I'd suggest we leave talking about the title in the past tense until we overcome the side that have only lost two games and conceded seven goals at home all season, or the one that's only lost two away all season, or the one that's still - as it stands - champions.

 

Alternatively, I'd be perfectly happy to accept Spurs stumbling again, but if we're depending on one of their results then we should remember that - no matter when the game is - they will be playing with the knowledge that they can close the gap on Leicester with a win. With or without Alli, and as long a shot as it is, it's a realistic enough scenario for people to delay talking about Spurs' chances as if they no longer exist.

 

It's far from a certainty yet. But if we focus, avoid being too flattened by any further twists that might occur and avoid the sort of arrogance which will allow Pochettino, Van Gaal, whoever's in charge of Everton and whoever's in charge of Chelsea to simply flash a few photos of Champions' scarves or social media messages in order to motivate their sides, then yes, we'll do it.

 

How? I don't care. It could be a hard-fought draw on Sunday which just reminds Spurs that we're not in the mood to give a title away, and which fails to ignite them sufficiently against Chelsea. I don't know. Maybe we'll blow United out of the water, or there'll be the fairy tale Vardy return in the next game. Maybe we scrape a point against Everton while they trip up against Southampton. However it pans out, I think we'll stand the best chance if Ranieri learns from the title he threw away against Roma, the players continue to profit from the high pressure situations they underwent in 2014 and 2015, and everyone else - fans, staff, friends, local journos  - remembers that we can help keep feet on the ground too.

 

100% correct.

biggs

biggs

Posted
Posted

They're among the best paid professionals in the game. If they feel their professionalism is being questioned - as it is now in some areas of the media, thanks to comments by the likes of Fabregas - then they will do their best to demonstrate that they're good pros.

 

When you look at our fixtures, they're of equivalent difficulty to the run of games in which we played Man City, Arsenal etc., and came out with a good points haul, but also of similar difficulty to the run of three games when we only scraped together two.

 

So if we lose away at Man U, arguably the toughest fixture of the season, and it drives Spurs on to beat Chelsea then we'll face a key game against Everton, who have an outstanding away record. If we don't win, and Spurs respond to our failure with a home win, then it goes to an away game to the reigning champions, while their opponents could be relegated by then.

 

It's an unlikely scenario, but Spurs have won three on the bounce at times this season, and we've had a run which - if it had occurred at the same time - would have seen us drop seven points to Spurs. It's not unthinkable that the two occurrences will repeat now, facing these fixtures.

 

Matt Elliott and Muzzy Izzet both said that we collapsed in the 2000-01 season because we got carried away. This time around, I'd suggest we leave talking about the title in the past tense until we overcome the side that have only lost two games and conceded seven goals at home all season, or the one that's only lost three away all season, or the one that's still - as it stands - champions.

 

Alternatively, I'd be perfectly happy to accept Spurs stumbling again, but if we're depending on one of their results then we should remember that - no matter when the game is - they will be playing with the knowledge that they can close the gap on Leicester with a win. With or without Alli, and as long a shot as it is, it's a realistic enough scenario for people to delay talking about Spurs' chances as if they no longer exist.

 

It's far from a certainty yet. But if we focus, avoid being too flattened by any further twists that might occur and avoid the sort of arrogance which will allow Pochettino, Van Gaal, whoever's in charge of Everton and whoever's in charge of Chelsea to simply flash a few photos of Champions' scarves or social media messages in order to motivate their sides, then yes, we'll do it.

 

How? I don't care. It could be a hard-fought draw on Sunday which just reminds Spurs that we're not in the mood to give a title away, and which fails to ignite them sufficiently against Chelsea. I don't know. Maybe we'll blow United out of the water, or there'll be the fairy tale Vardy return in the next game. Maybe we scrape a point against Everton while they trip up against Southampton. However it pans out, I think we'll stand the best chance if Ranieri learns from the title he threw away against Roma, the players continue to profit from the high pressure situations they underwent in 2014 and 2015, and everyone else - fans, staff, friends, local journos  - remembers that we can help keep feet on the ground too.

Bit late. The fans that want to be confident, over confident will be and I'll be one of them. Leicester players are pros too and have shown themselves to manage pressure well. Spurs cannot say the same so I'll give you 50% for your thoughts but they don't match mine.

We're tougher than Spurs and Poch can post that on his wall if he cares what I think.

inckley fox

inckley fox

Posted
Posted

Bit late. The fans that want to be confident, over confident will be and I'll be one of them. Leicester players are pros too and have shown themselves to manage pressure well. Spurs cannot say the same so I'll give you 50% for your thoughts but they don't match mine.

We're tougher than Spurs and Poch can post that on his wall if he cares what I think.

 

That's fine, of course. You can be as confident as you want, whether we win the league or not. I understand our players are pros and can cope with pressure, I just don't see why some people are so eager to heap extra pressure - taking into account that it's pressure and pretty much pressure alone that could cost us the title from here - on a bunch of guys who already have plenty to deal with. It might only take an accidentally-unfurled 'Champions' banner, a premature chant, a stunned silence, or a few more images of those scarves, to make the wrong result on Sunday feel a lot more serious than it should.

 

Once again, we'll be placing all our faith in our players being able to re-root their feet to the ground when we could probably lend a hand ourselves. I'm sure they will handle it if they have to, but why make a difficult pill to swallow feel like a brick?

 

And if Pochettino were to believe that the image of Leicester fans celebrating the title before they'd won it might motivate his team to win it themselves (and bear in mind it's an old, old trick to use negative media to motivate a side), then I see no reason why we should be so obliging. Spurs may well fail to get 76 points, but let's worry about getting 79 points ourselves before people start ramming our triumph down their throats. Because that sort of thing has a history of backfiring.

 

And I'm fairly sure nobody ever wants to be 'over-confident', not even your good self. That would mean that your confidence isn't justified, when I sincerely hope - suspect, maybe - that it is.

waylander

waylander

Posted
Posted

Our lads oooozzzzz confidence look other teams in the eye this season and say beat us . They were looking into the eye of the liger . Now Spurs were over confident and have slipped up . Will our boys think not what a place to win it at the theatre of dreams a match made in heaven . Top post by waylander love life love Leicester .

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