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davieG

Conservative Leadership Poll & Chat 30/06/16

Tory Leader  

85 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Do You Think Will Win?

    • Theresa May
      62
    • Stephen Crabb
      1
    • Liam Fox
      1
    • Michael Gove
      4
    • ANdrea Leadsom
      5
    • Don't Know / Don't Care.
      12
  2. 2. Who Do You Want To Win?

    • Theresa May
      33
    • Stephen Crabb
      1
    • Liam Fox
      2
    • Michael Gove
      7
    • Andrea Leadsom
      17
    • Don't Care
      25


Recommended Posts

Posted

I thought it was 2/3 of Parilment... and part of me thinks Labour would reject at this present time.

Your Brexit side of the Tory party would reject too under the concern the referendum could be effectively overturned.

you could be right. i may have read the wiki article wrong but i thought it was just the party.

 

reading it again, i think you may be right however. the labour and lib dems have now called for a snap election so how many is that? 

Guest MattP
Posted

Have Labour and the Lib Dems called for a ssnap election? That's not been on the news.

If theydid tthat's about 230 out of 650, so they still need everyone else and about 80 Tory Mps .

Posted

Have Labour and the Lib Dems called for a ssnap election? That's not been on the news.

If theydid tthat's about 230 out of 650, so they still need everyone else and about 80 Tory Mps .

 

 

It was mentioned on BBC News, but probably just rhetoric. They know that they can't get an election without a significant level of Tory support, which surely won't be forthcoming.

 

Labour couldn't vote to keep the Tories in, if a motion for dissolution and an election were to be put before parliament (even if they might be well-advised to do so, in cynical party political terms, to avoid blame for the impending mess).

 

But would the Tories want an election? Because if they don't, then it won't happen (barring a Tory civil war, which looks unlikely).

 

Reasons the Tories might not want an election:

- It would risk causing further market uncertainty/economic problems

- The EU is impatient to start negotiations and might cut up rough (though they seem prepared to give us until at least September)

- Tory Brexit supporters would be concerned at the possibility of the referendum result being overturned by the election result

- Er, they might lose the election. That might seem unlikely given the state Labour is in, but we live in volatile times, many people (including Tory voters) are alarmed at the consequences of Brexit or about where the economy might be heading and/or unimpressed with the rapid departure of ALL the leading figures in the referendum debate. The electorate might also see it as a further cop-out. 

 

Reasons the Tories might want an election:

- It would give May a greater public mandate (if the Tories were confident she'd win) & she already seems to fully accept that Brexit will happen

- Labour is demoralised and in disarray, strengthening the Tories' chances of victory & a larger majority (it would also catch other parties on the hop, notably UKIP)

- They must know that if they wait 2-4 years for an election, the circumstances could be much worse: probable economic downturn, deficit/spending problems, difficult EU negotiations, probably Scots referendum, Lab and/or UKIP possibly offering stronger opposition etc.

 

I reckon the Tories won't want an election - and therefore we won't have one.

Guest MattP
Posted

You missed the biggest reason why the Tories wouldn't want an election Alf.

It would avoid Labour tearing each other to shreds over the next few years, an early election and Corbyn defeat sees him gone, they'll let them destroy each other then fight what's left of the carcass in 2020.

Posted

You missed the biggest reason why the Tories wouldn't want an election Alf.

It would avoid Labour tearing each other to shreds over the next few years, an early election and Corbyn defeat sees him gone, they'll let them destroy each other then fight what's left of the carcass in 2020.

They could sort their act out though and be credible by then. Having said that the tories would only gain just over a year by calling an election in September.

Guest MattP
Posted

They might, but you'll still see a huge split as the membership has actually been proven to be pro-Corbyn, whoever wins the battle for the party will still be losing a ton of support and the fall out will take years to prepare.

Not worth letting them off that just for a year, Labour can't really shout too loud about a general election anyway given their refusal to give the public one after the Blair/Brown handover.

Posted

You missed the biggest reason why the Tories wouldn't want an election Alf.

It would avoid Labour tearing each other to shreds over the next few years, an early election and Corbyn defeat sees him gone, they'll let them destroy each other then fight what's left of the carcass in 2020.

 

 

I reckon the tearing to shreds is going to happen anyway, but is more likely to be short and brutal, not lasting several years. If it's going to last several years, the party will split, surely?

 

Of course, a Labour split is potentially of massive benefit to the Tories. But there's so much else that could happen over the next few years (economy, Brexit, public finances, public services, immigration), the Tories needn't rub their hands with glee.

 

All still too hard to predict.

Posted

They might, but you'll still see a huge split as the membership has actually been proven to be pro-Corbyn, whoever wins the battle for the party will still be losing a ton of support and the fall out will take years to prepare.

Not worth letting them off that just for a year, Labour can't really shout too loud about a general election anyway given their refusal to give the public one after the Blair/Brown handover.

That in itself may be an issue for May. At the time she made a bit of noise about Brown not being elected and that a General Election should have happened when Blair stepped down.

I can see this having enough support to go through.

The Tories are the best long term thinking party so they may see losing a general election as an acceptable short term strategy.

I think it would be pretty likely that if a general election happened in October, you'd see a coalition government of about 4 parties. UKIP and the SNP have peaked at what they can achieve and some of the labour votors that went across to them will certainly return as the SNP will alienate a large proportion of the votors in Scotland by calling for another referendum and UKIP are slowly being shown as not the credible alternative some thought they were.

The Tory majority isnt massive and the other parties may not need to actually do that well at the ballot box to close the gap. The Tory party support was split as much as the party over Brexit so I can see many Tory voters just not turning out.

The resultant coalition will not proceed with Brexit, instead choosing to attempt long and drawn out renegotiations but across a 4 party delegation rather than just 1.

It will probably take us to the next GE where the Tories will win a landslide majority and basically do what they want for 2 or 3 terms.

Posted

That in itself may be an issue for May. At the time she made a bit of noise about Brown not being elected and that a General Election should have happened when Blair stepped down.

I can see this having enough support to go through.

The Tories are the best long term thinking party so they may see losing a general election as an acceptable short term strategy.

I think it would be pretty likely that if a general election happened in October, you'd see a coalition government of about 4 parties. UKIP and the SNP have peaked at what they can achieve and some of the labour votors that went across to them will certainly return as the SNP will alienate a large proportion of the votors in Scotland by calling for another referendum and UKIP are slowly being shown as not the credible alternative some thought they were.

The Tory majority isnt massive and the other parties may not need to actually do that well at the ballot box to close the gap. The Tory party support was split as much as the party over Brexit so I can see many Tory voters just not turning out.

The resultant coalition will not proceed with Brexit, instead choosing to attempt long and drawn out renegotiations but across a 4 party delegation rather than just 1.

It will probably take us to the next GE where the Tories will win a landslide majority and basically do what they want for 2 or 3 terms.

I seriously doubt you would get four parties working together, they can't even work in unity within their own parties. Not a chance.
Posted

What a pathetic contest,more like a coronation than a leadership poll.politicians just can't help themselves with the personal insults and trying to destroy each other's credibility. I want to hear about policy and what direction the candidates want to take the party and the country. Instead of having the best of the best we end up with who is the less repugnant.

Posted

The leavers all gone, Gove, Boris, Leadsom and we're left with a remainer to lead us through a brexit. :D

 

Does anyone think those I mentioned will get a place on the cabinet, you know for unity reasons ;) .

 

Strange times indeed.

Posted

The leavers all gone, Gove, Boris, Leadsom and we're left with a remainer to lead us through a brexit. :D

 

Does anyone think those I mentioned will get a place on the cabinet, you know for unity reasons ;) .

 

Strange times indeed.

 

 

 

May paints herself as a decidedly uncertain "Remainer" but we'll see.  

Guest MattP
Posted

Providing article 50 is implemented properly it doesn't matter.

Plenty of leaders have gone through with policy they don't agree with.

(Although given her vanishing act during the ref you do wonder if she was that bothered either way)

Posted

The newspapers haven't attacked May.

 

Is that because she's who they all want or because they are waiting until she's the PM?

They all want to see her cleavage again!!

Posted

What a pathetic contest,more like a coronation than a leadership poll.politicians just can't help themselves with the personal insults and trying to destroy each other's credibility. I want to hear about policy and what direction the candidates want to take the party and the country. Instead of having the best of the best we end up with who is the less repugnant.

 

 

May seems pretty positive and forthcoming with her ideas. She's also said to be good with detail and to throw herself into whatever problem is placed in front of her.

I don't think the EU problem will be quite as tough as many seem to imagine because the EU needs the UK as an ally as much as we need the EU. In the end there'll be mutual benefit from sensible arrangements and every chance that the UK can blossom as a result and other countries as well.   

Posted

She also said that Labour should have called a general election when Brown took over from Blair.

 

 

 

But she wasn't responsible for that decision. And I'm sure it was a political call - made to gain advantage - or perhaps a sincere desire to stop the country taking further punishment! :D .     

Posted

She also said that Labour should have called a general election when Brown took over from Blair.

May can't call an election without going to parliament, it's different rules now.

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