General Election, June 8th

[Guest Dirkster the Fox]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Clearly they didn't use those words but their leadership campaigned hard to remain, for example:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu

Oh toddybad, a while back you hated Gideon I'm sure. After all he taxed your pasty's..

 

Silly boy then fronted this...  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics)

 

Do you really listen to good old Gideon anymore?

[Ashley]

Best place to understand all political parties manifestos etc. I don't want no biased shit either. 

 

Cheers 

[kyleolly]

If it's as close as some of the polls suggest could there be a lab/ldem coilition counter acted by a con/ukip coilition?

[Guest Dirkster the Fox]

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

 

Either this Labour activist, supporter and interested poll checker is lying, deluded, getting very bad feedback or playing reverse psychology.  

 

Otherwise the Tories are going to win medium/big tomorrow.

 

We can go round and round and each pollster has its own practice, but the above suggests even Labour know they are in for a bad night tomorrow.

 

It could all be wrong, the pollsters, bookies and Atal Hatwal.... 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Oh toddybad, a while back you hated Gideon I'm sure. After all he taxed your pasty's..

 

Silly boy then fronted this...  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Fear_(British_politics)

 

Do you really listen to good old Gideon anymore?

I did, obviously (though not for the pasty tax - more for the wilful destruction of public services). 

He actually seems a bit better now he's giving May a hard time through his paper 

[Guest]

Prior to Brexit the polls said remain would win and so I believed that. Speaking to the crowd I'm with on Thursday nights (generally not uni educated, many of them self-employed) I was the only remainer. I should have seen it coming.

 

This time round, I'm the only labour voter amongst them at this election. I know a few others who are going labour but most people don't really say. My gut feeling is that the majority of people that don't pay attention or can't see beyond soundbites will be voting Tory. I haven't put it that way to dismiss those of you that have given extensive reasons for voting Tory, I've put it that way because it is probably the politically illiterate that actually decide elections given the number of them. 

 

Again, those of us who like public services will have to hope that the young turn up for a change to save the day!

[ramboacdc]

The yougov poll has been tweaked for this last poll. All undecideds are put into who they voted for in 2015. They may not vote or not go the way they did before.

Ok at this point in firmly clutching at straws.

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[LiberalFox]

10 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Prior to Brexit the polls said remain would win and so I believed that. Speaking to the crowd I'm with on Thursday nights (generally not uni educated, many of them self-employed) I was the only remainer. I should have seen it coming.

 

This time round, I'm the only labour voter amongst them at this election. I know a few others who are going labour but most people don't really say. My gut feeling is that the majority of people that don't pay attention or can't see beyond soundbites will be voting Tory. I haven't put it that way to dismiss those of you that have given extensive reasons for voting Tory, I've put it that way because it is probably the politically illiterate that actually decide elections given the number of them. 

 

Again, those of us who like public services will have to hope that the young turn up for a change to save the day!

 

How do you think "the left" can win the votes of people who are "politically illiterate" for want of a better word. Why do these people vote Tory?

[ramboacdc]

Wonder if they changed their methodology at the last minute or if overnight polling suddenly changed

See my post above

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[Guest Dirkster the Fox]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Prior to Brexit the polls said remain would win and so I believed that. Speaking to the crowd I'm with on Thursday nights (generally not uni educated, many of them self-employed) I was the only remainer. I should have seen it coming.

 

This time round, I'm the only labour voter amongst them at this election. I know a few others who are going labour but most people don't really say. My gut feeling is that the majority of people that don't pay attention or can't see beyond soundbites will be voting Tory. I haven't put it that way to dismiss those of you that have given extensive reasons for voting Tory, I've put it that way because it is probably the politically illiterate that actually decide elections given the number of them. 

 

Again, those of us who like public services will have to hope that the young turn up for a change to save the day!

I like you toddybad, you're obviously pretty set on your views but have been torn between some things you know are logically better under the status quo. I also know its not exactly perfect at the moment.  However, you ultimately have your beliefs that somehow the current Labour Party can make it better and fair game for at least putting some analysis to it.  I'm not being condescending saying this, but at least you are showing that others around you that mix with, opinions can differ and people are less interested in the detail of politics, good or bad.  I do find it a little difficult accepting your comment about their education though.  I personally feel any person actively able to work and contributing to our economy deserves a view point, irrespective of their education.  I touched on this a while back on the post about Student Fees and the justification for them being free, against those that don't go to university and straight into work paying tax.

 

So for me, politically light, they are more than entitled to a view, like it or not.

 

Personally, I think an awful lot of this next 24 hours will be about an ideology, a dream against dare I say it, a bit of steady reality. 

 

We'll know at 10pm tomorrow night which one is likely to have grabbed the most votes.

 

[Guest Dirkster the Fox]

26 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

 

How do you think "the left" can win the votes of people who are "politically illiterate" for want of a better word. Why do these people vote Tory?

Maybe they want to stay in work?

[Beliall]

1 hour ago, ramboacdc said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40188494?intlink_from_url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40157259&link_location=live-reporting-story

 

 

what a world we live in....

a T-shirt of Che Guevara would be acceptable

 

 

Thank **** for that.

[Guest MattP]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-3)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @Survation / 06 - 07 Jun)

 

That's what they think.

[Guest MattP]

Twitter voting intention:
LAB: 83% (-1)

CON: 4% (+1)
LDEM: 3% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-3)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @Billy Bragg/Owen Jones / 06 - 07 Jun)

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, Ashley said:

Best place to understand all political parties manifestos etc. I don't want no biased shit either. 

 

Cheers 

Each manifesto is on the party website.

 

Good luck.  There are literally no unbiased review imo.

[Jon the Hat]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Twitter voting intention:
LAB: 83% (-1)

CON: 4% (+1)
LDEM: 3% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-3)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @Billy Bragg/Owen Jones / 06 - 07 Jun)

Christ Imagine living in that world.

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Christ Imagine living in that world.

Yeah, then imagine the US where the Twitter slant is in the opposite direction...though probably not to that extreme.

[Guest MattP]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 46%
LAB: 33%
LDEM: 8%
UKIP: 5%

(via @BMGResearch / 06 - 07 Jun)
Last poll was Oct 2016.

 

[Alf Bentley]

15 minutes ago, MattP said:

Twitter voting intention:
LAB: 83% (-1)

CON: 4% (+1)
LDEM: 3% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-3)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @Billy Bragg/Owen Jones / 06 - 07 Jun)

 

 

I'm disappointed to see the 1% Lab->Con swing in that poll.

Might mean the Tories hold Maidenhead and still have an MP at Westminster. 

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

I'm disappointed to see the 1% Lab->Con swing in that poll.

Might mean the Tories hold Maidenhead and still have an MP at Westminster. 

It was the Sun wot dun it!

[LiberalFox]

BMG: +13

ICM: +12

ComRes: +10

Panelbase: +8

Opinium: +7

TNS: +5

YouGov: +7

Survation: +1

Ipsos Mori: awaiting.

 

 

[leicsmac]

Averaging the polls out comes to about an 8/9 point advantage...anyone know what kind of majority that is?

 

(Not that the pollsters haven't been made fools of recently, though.)

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, LiberalFox said:

BMG: +13

ICM: +12

ComRes: +10

Panelbase: +8

Opinium: +7

TNS: +5

YouGov: +7

Survation: +1

Ipsos Mori: awaiting.

 

 

Cheers. I was going to wander through. 

 

Survation are either the greatest polling company ever or they are obselete tomorrow. 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

Averaging the polls out comes to about an 8/9 point advantage...anyone know what kind of majority that is?

 

(Not that the pollsters haven't been made fools of recently, though.)

Depends on seat Dems but about 100 I'd say.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Depends on seat Dems but about 100 I'd say.

Much obliged.

 

FWIW I think the average is going to be pretty close to the result here and so likely around a 80-100 majority result. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.