General Election, June 8th

[Alf Bentley]

Very interesting article here - and possibly a useful cold shower for any lefties getting excited at the narrowing in the polls: 

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

 

He's a Labour insider and his analysis is based on extensive contact with Labour campaigners nationwide.

He's essentially saying that Labour canvassing returns in the NW/NE/Yorks/W.Mids still look disastrous - a lot worse than the polls - although London looks better.

Basically, his internal party sources are still expecting a Tory landslide - or "a nuclear winter" in the North/Midlands, as one described it.

 

He goes on to have an interesting discussion about why there should be such a massive disparity between the polls and info from doorstep/phone canvassing.

 

If he's right, yet again some could be in for a horrible shock when they see tomorrow's exit poll - and maybe a worse one when results start coming in from the North/Midlands.

I really hope he's wrong, obviously, but he sounds pretty well-informed.... 

[Guest Kopfkino]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

I wouldn't be able to do one until late evening, so please proceed if you fancy it, @KingGTF

 

If nobody has done one by late evening, I'll try to rustle something up.  

 

I'll leave it you then Alf, got rehearsals and prep for tomorrow all day and then working til midnight.

[LiberalFox]

 

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Very interesting article here - and possibly a useful cold shower for any lefties getting excited at the narrowing in the polls: 

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

 

He's a Labour insider and his analysis is based on extensive contact with Labour campaigners nationwide.

He's essentially saying that Labour canvassing returns in the NW/NE/Yorks/W.Mids still look disastrous - a lot worse than the polls - although London looks better.

Basically, his internal party sources are still expecting a Tory landslide - or "a nuclear winter" in the North/Midlands, as one described it.

 

He goes on to have an interesting discussion about why there should be such a massive disparity between the polls and info from doorstep/phone canvassing.

 

If he's right, yet again some could be in for a horrible shock when they see tomorrow's exit poll - and maybe a worse one when results start coming in from the North/Midlands.

I really hope he's wrong, obviously, but he sounds pretty well-informed.... 

 

I don't really trust Labour's internal polling either. It's clear a lot of Labour Mps want Corbyn out. I predicted a hung parliament earlier and I could be wildly wrong but I don't see much enthusiasm for the Tories, but perhaps they have a very loyal vote. 

[Alf Bentley]

Just now, KingGTF said:

 

I'll leave it you then Alf, got rehearsals and prep for tomorrow all day and then working til midnight.

 

Righto.

 

If you, Matt or anyone else feels like doing a predictions quiz, please do.

Otherwise, I'll try to do one later, but probably won't be done before midnight.

[Guest MattP]

SportingIndex have moved the Conservative seat markets to 367-373 in the last hour up from 352-358 and moved Labour to 197-203 down from 212-218.

 

They either don't believe the polls, have information on upcoming ones or think that the analysis provided by @Alf Bentley and a few other Labour commentators is proving pretty accurate. To be expecting a Tory majority of 90 is incredibly out there on the information we have.

[Webbo]

Anything less than a 30 seat majority for the conservatives is a bad result imo. 30-50 is okay, 50-70 is good and anything over that is excellent. 

[Guest]

At this stage you'd have to expect a tory majority and the size of that will be determined by how many young people - who tend to massively favour labour - actually turn up to vote. 

 

Whatever the result, this thread should stay open so we can return in 1-2 years and all look at what we argued here and how we feel in retrospect. That would be quite interesting.

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Still don't think it will be that close. sooooo easy to fudge opinion polls to make it more exciting.....as they do every year

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Very interesting article here - and possibly a useful cold shower for any lefties getting excited at the narrowing in the polls: 

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/05/polls-labours-surging-non-london-doorstep-its-a-nuclear-winter-for-labour-somethings-got-to-give/

 

He's a Labour insider and his analysis is based on extensive contact with Labour campaigners nationwide.

He's essentially saying that Labour canvassing returns in the NW/NE/Yorks/W.Mids still look disastrous - a lot worse than the polls - although London looks better.

Basically, his internal party sources are still expecting a Tory landslide - or "a nuclear winter" in the North/Midlands, as one described it.

 

He goes on to have an interesting discussion about why there should be such a massive disparity between the polls and info from doorstep/phone canvassing.

 

If he's right, yet again some could be in for a horrible shock when they see tomorrow's exit poll - and maybe a worse one when results start coming in from the North/Midlands.

I really hope he's wrong, obviously, but he sounds pretty well-informed.... 

He doesn't sound like he supports Labour at all

 

I'm still torn. Last election I began to think Labour would tip the post based on general media and social media, but then I actually looked into it and there was a HUGE amount of quiet tories who don't shout about the streets like Labour supports do and called a Conservative win.

 

This year I am the same all I see is LABOUR LABOUR LABOUR and i'm almost convinced they will win this year, but there is part of me that things there are a lot of 'shy conservatives' as he put it in the article

[Buce]

1 hour ago, ramboacdc said:

since @MattP wont post it:

 

survation

CON 42%, LAB 40%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 3%

 

could be labour short 11 largest party or tory majority of 4. 

That's interesting. I think they are the only pollsters using the old methodology. 

[Captain...]

I really don't know what the outcome will be and I won't be making any predictions, but I am just glad we have had a debate with some substance with different ideologies and 2 different philosophies and there at least seems to be a credible opposition, at the moment. Hopefully Corbyn won't go back under his rock after the election and leads a strong opposition.

 

Looking at the polls best possible outcome for Labour would be a hung parliament, anything that reduces May's majority would be a bonus. The Tory's will have to deal with  the outcome of a pretty poor campaign and the reason for calling it was to give her a greater mandate over brexit, but if anything it seems to have weakened her position, even if they win more seats. There is very little confidence in her as a leader and they will go into Brexit negotiations on the back of a bruising campaign.

[Stadt]

Anyone hoping for a hung parliament? I don't like either party and a coalition tends to be more centrist but I'm well aware that it's less practical

[Carl the Llama]

Just now, Soundman said:

He doesn't sound like he supports Labour at all

 

I'm still torn. Last election I began to think Labour would tip the post based on general media and social media, but then I actually looked into it and there was a HUGE amount of quiet tories who don't shout about the streets like Labour supports do and called a Conservative win.

 

This year I am the same all I see is LABOUR LABOUR LABOUR and i'm almost convinced they will win this year, but there is part of me that things there are a lot of 'shy conservatives' as he put it in the article

Yeah there's no way Labour are overturning enough seats to win. I'm far more inclined to believe the notion that the polls are under-representing the conservative faction like they've been doing for years.  On a personal level my vote is more about preventing a Tory majority than support for the Lib Dems who I've decided to back purely because I believe they're more likely (or rather less incredibly unlikely) to see the Tories out in my constituency (South Cambs.) than Labour are.  That said, even if I felt there was a genuine chance labour could win my seat I really don't think I could stomach voting for them and I'm sure there are many others with that same dilemma although at least this time around they are actually committing to placing some kind of vote unlike back during the referendum when they all stayed home then had the cheek to complain about the result.

 

On the other hand I personally know Kippers and Tories who are obnoxiously loud in their declaration of unwavering support for Mrs May (only one of whom is actually capable of fleshing out his views, a chronic drunk of a man no-less, go figure), which gives me the impression that although Labour will do better on account of people actually voting this time, the same poorly informed mob that played a key part in the success of the Brexit vote are going to help carry Mrs May into a small-to-medium sized majority government.

 

Disclaimer: I've taken flack in the past for my anecdotal conclusions so before I get jumped on again can I please make it crystal clear that I'm not calling every Tory voter on here or in the country as a whole an angry, poorly informed kipper but when I controversially raised the point of the swing effect these reactionary, misinformed people would have on the result of the referendum as compared to polling numbers in the pre-referendum thread I was eventually proved right so please think twice before jumping on me for relaying once again what I'm witnessing in reality in my little corner of the world.

[Carl the Llama]

Just now, Wookie said:

Anyone hoping for a hung parliament? I don't like either party and a coalition tends to be more centrist but I'm well aware that it's less practical

I'd be ecstatic but it's not going to happen imo.

[Magictv]

5 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

I'd be ecstatic but it's not going to happen imo.

Would be my choice too for reasons wookie stated, sadly can't see it happening. 

[Carl the Llama]

On the topic of coalition, can I just raise the hypocrisy of May & co. fearmongering with the 'coalition of chaos' line when the term was initially coined to describe the farce that resulted from the Tories being incapable of playing nice with others.  

[Rincewind]

Ironic really. She called the election at a time she thought Corbyn and Labour were at their weakest to get the Brexit she wanted and possibly make it easier to introduce harsher policies. But because of the Tory campaign and more exposure for Corbyn and the policicies the media were saying he did not have and not covering his popularity has risen despite attempts by media such as the sun to discredit him even more. I was not too bothered about him and undecided about him but the nasty smear campaign has not made me feel any worse about him and put me off his opposition even more.

Whatever his credentials for leading the country are I respect him for ignoring the majority of the smears and getting on with his job.He has said he does not does personal and TBH I have not seen him make any remarks about anyone in comparison to that he has received.

[Merging Cultures]

I'm getting tons of flipping emails from the conservatives. If I was undecided and going to the polls in the morning, it wouldn't half turn me off.

 

 

[RobHawk]

How am i only now seeing this gem!!!!

 

 

 

[RobHawk]

21 minutes ago, Merging Cultures said:

I'm getting tons of flipping emails from the conservatives. If I was undecided and going to the polls in the morning, it wouldn't half turn me off.

 

 

I've had very little this time - The current Tory MP has been nowhere to be seen, i had a leaflet that was posted to me. The Labour candidate and her bods have been door to door on 2 different occasions.

 

Seems really odd from the Torys given me seat was the closest in the country at the last election

[stripeyfox]

I've seen lots of pro Labour stuff and anti Tory hysteria. Not too much the other way though..

 

[Harry - LCFC]

1 hour ago, Wookie said:

Anyone hoping for a hung parliament? I don't like either party and a coalition tends to be more centrist but I'm well aware that it's less practical

I think that would be the best outcome. What does practicality mean here? Basically it's the ability of the government to get things done. Well, if you don't think either major party has a positive policy agenda then you'd want them to be limited in what they can do.

[Voll Blau]

Hoping beyond hope that Yougov are somewhere close to being accurate, not just from a partisan point of view but because I find myself unable to tear my eyes away from their constituency-by-constiutency map. Finding myself sat fascinated by places like East Devon, where they're claiming an independent is likely to oust the sitting Tory.

 

Sadly I can't see it though, predicting an increase in Tory majority but also for Labour's vote share to go up (in the wrong places form a tactical point of view).

 

I do have a theory about a demographic of "shy Corbynites" who might come out of the woodwork though. 25+ males who won't publicly back him because they fear a pounding about the IRA/Hamas issue or don't want to be seen disagreeing with mates on issues like that or whatever. The kind of guys who generally keep quiet or just nod in tacit approval when politics comes up in their friendship group and the "he'd be an embarrassment" "Labour are just the party of benefit scroungers" type lines are trotted out. Just an observation I've made from occasionally witnessing those kinds of discussions.

 

I'm probably clutching at straws with that mind.

[Captain...]

40 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

I've had very little this time - The current Tory MP has been nowhere to be seen, i had a leaflet that was posted to me. The Labour candidate and her bods have been door to door on 2 different occasions.

 

Seems really odd from the Torys given me seat was the closest in the country at the last election

I've had very little too, which is weird as I live in Labour seat with only a 400 vote winning margin and was a Labour gain in the last GE..

 

This should be a Tory target, unless they have just dismissed London as a lost cause, I really expected a lot more from both sides where I live, but sadly not.

[The Guvnor]

Maybe I haven't had my finger on the pulse 100% but just learned about Labours Land tax proposals if what I have read is true that would be disastrous for most homeowners , could mean a rise of over 1k annualy for me. If the intention is to whack homeowners in the South East and London there are a lot of home owners who are asset rich but cash poor sounds a fcuking awful idea to me and for the yet  undecided surely a game changer.