Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Kopfkino]

54 minutes ago, toddybad said:

It might not solve it but reducing demand by cutting most definitely won't. 

 

Glad you back up my earlier points though.

 

Whatever people's slant, I did think the economy should be taught at school. How to do it in a politically neutral way might be the difficulty. Correct me if this has changed King but my understanding is that certainly unto very recently even on economics degrees the realities of the production of money isn't studied so it's no wonder nobody knows about it.

 

Maybe, maybe not. But the problem with that is we didn't actually really cut govt spending in either nominal or real terms. I don't know why this fallacy of little growth or Osborne's policy didn't work, actually survives in some minds. Up until Q1 of this year, our growth has been as strong as anyone's since the back end of 2013, and there are signs its recovering. The fascinating thing is people then still try to blame government policy (if anything tightening has been relaxed slightly) or its proof that Brexit will kill us or, as it seems most people do depending on which day of the week it is, it flip-flops between the two.

 

No you're right, politics in general and finance needs better teaching. I only ever encountered it through A Levels and that's taught from a very Keynesian point of view/actually just demand and supply which isn't particularly useful as knowledge. I don't know the history of teaching money in economics but I'd say its more a thing for finance than economics. But yes the financial system is generally misunderstood but similarly your banging on about all money being debt because banks type it into a computer isn't particularly useful. It doesn't change money as a medium of exchange that only has value because it's efficient. 

 

46 minutes ago, toddybad said:

And I don't mind the argument of your second paragraph as at least it's an open and transparent right wing argument for a small state (presumably). What bothers me is when small state politics is hidden behind a veil of false economic arguments. 

 

We can debate this but in the end it's your opinion which differs from mine and we'd get nowhere. 

 

Re the first paragraph do you know of any evidence to back that up? Perhaps King does although is want to see actual evidence, not just theory.

 

I would argue that every pound spent by government gets recycled and taxed multiple times. You pay somebody £100 and get back 30% in tax and 20% of the remainder via VAT. The money they spend is taxed via corporation tax. Whatever the state got back is respent. This way you can respend the same pound (or parts of pounds, at least) multiple times, getting more bang for your, er, pound than private expenditure can.

 

There's data either way. Obviously Keynes said spend because tax cuts might just increase saving. Ricardo said that tax cuts don't work because people know they will taxed higher in the future to pay for it/same can apply to spending. There's the joke of asking 10 economists the same question and getting 10 different answers for a reason.

There's two papers that I was told about last year that are points of reference for tax cuts over spending

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/RomerandRomerAERJune2010.pdf

http://www.nber.org/papers/w14551

 

It's a hotly contested subject. Actually the Australia example is interesting because they favoured spending over tax cuts but had a lower total stimulus package. I'm not going to say Australia proves that govt spending is the way to arrest economic decline because Australia benefitted from many things, but it's direct handing out of cash may just have helped by keeping consumers confident. The countries that were had more room for fiscal manouvre generally did better but Spain is a great example where that didn't help whilst Poland had a big deficit I think but didn't suffer so much. 

 

You can make all sorts of arguments but any of it rests on the government making the right spending decisions or making the right tax cuts which is the inherent problem for any argument that says increase the deficit to get growth. Part of the problem of a globalised world is a lot of giveaways could just go on imported goods, and actually one of the reasons Germany didn't need so much stimulus was they imported everyone else's stimulus.

 

As for your last paragraph, maybe this paper/just the abstract will be of interest http://econweb.ucsd.edu/~vramey/research/NBER_Fiscal.pdf . There's a John Cogan paper that says multipliers are much less than previously thought and actually there's a wealth of material recently about multipliers not being very multiplying. Still, I am not sure how you can effectively say £100 spent by the government is better than £100 spent privately.

 

 

I did a lot of reading on macro stuff, financials, and behavioural Econ over the summer  this is not normal undergrad behaviour to know all these papers.  I will shut up and not continue to waste time

 

34 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Sure.

It really worked out well for us didn’t it?

You can argue that Brown convincing/forcing  Lloyd’s into purchasing HBOS was key in them needing extra/endless funding but yes I would have loved to see them fail too, even if it would have cost me a fair bit.

 

Touche. Was content to bring down the hole financial system just to win a Scottish by-election 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 hour ago, Fox Ulike said:

 

A primary school teacher makes £24k a year. Is that an 'excessive salary??

 

https://www.payscale.com/research/UK/Job=Primary_School_Teacher/Salary

 

And how do you work out that it's Labour creating non jobs???

 

You do know that we've had a Conservative Government for the past seven years do ya?

 

 

Again you are picking words that suit your agenda. I haven't said anything about Primary School teachers being over paid,  they are not but as a starting Salary 24k isn't bad.

 

What I am talking about is public sector senior management on over 100k a year, of which there are many examples, you can bet the executive head and her team of senior managers will be on a few hundred thousand between them, why is this? They probably have some PAs and or Office staff working for them too. I have no problem with front line staff getting the pay they deserve but public sector management irk me, I've been there I have seen them they are mostly terrible and could easily be cut back, but never are because they protect their own jobs. Id argue that many schools don't actually need so many senior managers, they never used to and standards were better why now?

 

Yes we have again, there are many many things this government has done wrong, but keeping a grip on the borrowing is one thing absolutely correct in my eyes. In a bankrupt nation there will be no public sector and no NHS, this is one thing Labour voters should remember when uncle Jezza and Johnny promise the next unfunded magic unicorn.

 

Again I am not saying this government are good, but they are better than the alternative. Which is no jobs, no money for anyone.

1 hour ago, Rogstanley said:

 

The idea that teachers should pay out of their own pocket for essentials like pens is just unbelievable. It’s worse than asking parents to pay for it and even that is astonishing in what is supposed to be a somewhat developed country.

I never said it way an idea situation but if the government cant afford to buy them what do you suggest more borrowing? when do we pay it back? Do you really want your children's, children's children to be paying back your Labour debt binge.

 

Well so why don't we rationalise the senior management teams in schools then? Schools get much more funding than 20 years ago, even accounting for inflation. The real issue is why do we need a executive head? an executive deputy head, and executive assistant principal, an executive department head for each area, PAs for said staff? We never used to have them. We need to have a serious independent review of all senior public sector jobs I am quite sure millions could be saved. Trouble is no government has ever reviewed jobs properly and likely never will because to many people of influence are in charge and looking after their interests.

 

I worked in a public sector institution that needed to save money, it had an option of reviewing its management team or making redundant 4 technician staff on 13k a year, needless to say they chose the latter and still had to make other savings elsewhere because they wanted to protect their own jobs. Trouble is you have people making decisions with certain ideologies who are protecting themselves.

 

To make cuts to the frontline to a rich fully signed up member of TUC head teacher, makes good headlines to blame those nasty evil tory rich men, whilst socialist head teacher sits in their ivory tower.

Edited 16 November 2017 by Foxin_mad

[Guest]

Talk today that the government is going to back down on the next date in the bill and also double the financial offer you the eu. Quite why they faffed about in the first place is beyond me.

[Buce]

 

Ditch tax cuts to fund universal credit, says Iain Duncan Smith's thinktank

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/16/ditch-tax-cuts-to-fund-universal-credit-says-iain-duncan-smiths-thinktank

 

Iain Duncan Smith’s thinktank is calling on the chancellor to renege on promised Tory tax cuts and instead plough billions of pounds into universal credit if he wants to help families that are just about managing.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), founded and chaired by the former Conservative leader, said that Philip Hammond should cancel plans to raise the threshold for personal allowance to £12,500 by 2021.

 

Instead, the thinktank wants to see £3.4bn taken out of the system by George Osborne in 2015 reinvested, warning that the cuts will leave 3 million people facing a £1,000 reduction in their income as they move into work.

Duncan Smith has argued that the government’s flagship welfare overhaul is a much better way to target those in need because “every penny invested in universal credit will go to low-paid workers, yet this is true of just 25 pence of every £1 invested in the income tax personal allowance”.

Now the CSJ has published a report, shared exclusively with the Guardian, that says the universal credit cash injection would result in 300,000 more people gaining employment and taking the benefit “back to its original design”.

However, the group acknowledges that such a move would be expensive and so suggests the Conservatives row back on a manifesto promise, repeated by Hammond in this year’s spring budget, to keep raising the threshold at which people start paying income tax.

The call goes far beyond demands from a number of Tory MPs to reduce a waiting time of up to six weeks for initial benefit payments, which has led to warnings of rent arrears and people forced to turn to foodbanks. People who claim universal credit from today will not receive any benefits before Christmas, affecting an estimated 60,000 households.

The CSJ backs government plans, expected next week, to reduce the period to five weeks at the cost of £140m, but says much more is needed if the welfare system is to incentivise people back into work.

The CSJ proposal is being backed by one Tory MP who recently met Theresa May to demand action over universal credit.

Johnny Mercer said: “Universal credit has the potential to help people out of poverty by removing the disincentives to move into work in the previous system and allowing them to reach their full potential. A modern compassionate Conservative government simply must get it right though.

“This government can make the system better by smoothing the path from welfare into work with a fresh investment in universal credit in this budget.”

He argued that most people in his Plymouth constituency and around the country wanted to work.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Ditch tax cuts to fund universal credit, says Iain Duncan Smith's thinktank

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/16/ditch-tax-cuts-to-fund-universal-credit-says-iain-duncan-smiths-thinktank

 

Iain Duncan Smith’s thinktank is calling on the chancellor to renege on promised Tory tax cuts and instead plough billions of pounds into universal credit if he wants to help families that are just about managing.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), founded and chaired by the former Conservative leader, said that Philip Hammond should cancel plans to raise the threshold for personal allowance to £12,500 by 2021.

 

Instead, the thinktank wants to see £3.4bn taken out of the system by George Osborne in 2015 reinvested, warning that the cuts will leave 3 million people facing a £1,000 reduction in their income as they move into work.

Duncan Smith has argued that the government’s flagship welfare overhaul is a much better way to target those in need because “every penny invested in universal credit will go to low-paid workers, yet this is true of just 25 pence of every £1 invested in the income tax personal allowance”.

Now the CSJ has published a report, shared exclusively with the Guardian, that says the universal credit cash injection would result in 300,000 more people gaining employment and taking the benefit “back to its original design”.

However, the group acknowledges that such a move would be expensive and so suggests the Conservatives row back on a manifesto promise, repeated by Hammond in this year’s spring budget, to keep raising the threshold at which people start paying income tax.

The call goes far beyond demands from a number of Tory MPs to reduce a waiting time of up to six weeks for initial benefit payments, which has led to warnings of rent arrears and people forced to turn to foodbanks. People who claim universal credit from today will not receive any benefits before Christmas, affecting an estimated 60,000 households.

The CSJ backs government plans, expected next week, to reduce the period to five weeks at the cost of £140m, but says much more is needed if the welfare system is to incentivise people back into work.

The CSJ proposal is being backed by one Tory MP who recently met Theresa May to demand action over universal credit.

Johnny Mercer said: “Universal credit has the potential to help people out of poverty by removing the disincentives to move into work in the previous system and allowing them to reach their full potential. A modern compassionate Conservative government simply must get it right though.

“This government can make the system better by smoothing the path from welfare into work with a fresh investment in universal credit in this budget.”

He argued that most people in his Plymouth constituency and around the country wanted to work.

Odds are 1/3 on that Matty says "who'd take Duncan Smith and Mercer seriously" or similar.

[Webbo]

22 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Ditch tax cuts to fund universal credit, says Iain Duncan Smith's thinktank

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/nov/16/ditch-tax-cuts-to-fund-universal-credit-says-iain-duncan-smiths-thinktank

 

Iain Duncan Smith’s thinktank is calling on the chancellor to renege on promised Tory tax cuts and instead plough billions of pounds into universal credit if he wants to help families that are just about managing.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), founded and chaired by the former Conservative leader, said that Philip Hammond should cancel plans to raise the threshold for personal allowance to £12,500 by 2021.

 

Instead, the thinktank wants to see £3.4bn taken out of the system by George Osborne in 2015 reinvested, warning that the cuts will leave 3 million people facing a £1,000 reduction in their income as they move into work.

Duncan Smith has argued that the government’s flagship welfare overhaul is a much better way to target those in need because “every penny invested in universal credit will go to low-paid workers, yet this is true of just 25 pence of every £1 invested in the income tax personal allowance”.

Now the CSJ has published a report, shared exclusively with the Guardian, that says the universal credit cash injection would result in 300,000 more people gaining employment and taking the benefit “back to its original design”.

However, the group acknowledges that such a move would be expensive and so suggests the Conservatives row back on a manifesto promise, repeated by Hammond in this year’s spring budget, to keep raising the threshold at which people start paying income tax.

The call goes far beyond demands from a number of Tory MPs to reduce a waiting time of up to six weeks for initial benefit payments, which has led to warnings of rent arrears and people forced to turn to foodbanks. People who claim universal credit from today will not receive any benefits before Christmas, affecting an estimated 60,000 households.

The CSJ backs government plans, expected next week, to reduce the period to five weeks at the cost of £140m, but says much more is needed if the welfare system is to incentivise people back into work.

The CSJ proposal is being backed by one Tory MP who recently met Theresa May to demand action over universal credit.

Johnny Mercer said: “Universal credit has the potential to help people out of poverty by removing the disincentives to move into work in the previous system and allowing them to reach their full potential. A modern compassionate Conservative government simply must get it right though.

“This government can make the system better by smoothing the path from welfare into work with a fresh investment in universal credit in this budget.”

He argued that most people in his Plymouth constituency and around the country wanted to work.

Is IDS still a psychopath?

[Strokes]

2 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Sorry Strokes I appreciate you put a little whistling smiley at the end there but the people most likely to sign on for UC are the ones who are the least likely to be coming from a position of being able to squirrel money away for rainy days... That's usually why they resort to signing on for state support.  If somebody was making sure their wages until that point had reflected the growth in cost of living over the past decade or so then that may not be the case but alas we play the hands we're dealt and sometimes that means applying for UC to avoid outright bankruptcy. Waiting 6 weeks in the winter when bills are at their highest is cruelty pure and simple.

I was making a point about something else tbf.

I do think universal credit is a good thing but like many good ideas this government has the application is appalling.

[Strokes]

Who’d take Duncan Smith or mercer seriously or similar.

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Who’d take Duncan Smith or mercer seriously or similar.

Damn, I had a bet at 1/3 that Matt would say that.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Damn, I had a bet at 1/3 that Matt would say that.

Oh am I not on my Matt account, I get confused with these Russian login details. Beep beep.

[Guest]

On 15/11/2017 at 15:04, Webbo said:

 

Productivity (output per hour) jumps in Q3. Now rising at the fastest rate in six years. More than reverses the falls in Q1 and Q2

 

On 15/11/2017 at 16:51, toddybad said:

Ons also confirmed that wages have fallen for the 6th 3 month period in a row. I'm glad you recognise the ons as providing relevant information.

I thought webbo might have something to say on the ons opinion on wages given how sure he is that they're not falling.

[Claridge]

11 hours ago, toddybad said:

No, osborne said that gordon Brown had handled a global financial crash well in a recent interview. Funny how his tune changed when he wasn't trying to win votes!

 

And in the last 7 years we have decimated public services by reducing expenditure. Government expenditure helps bring about growth - if it builds a school you get builders, architects, plumbers, electricians, teachers all getting jobs. It has economic BENEFIT to the country.

Build a school, labour has ****ed many schools over with the PFIs. The worst example ever given to make a point

[Kopfkino]

4 minutes ago, Claridge said:

Build a school, labour has ****ed many schools over with the PFIs. The worst example ever given to make a point

 

Employ some architects - as if we've just got millions of architects sat around twiddling their thumbs

[Webbo]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

 

I thought webbo might have something to say on the ons opinion on wages given how sure he is that they're not falling.

You keep telling us what we're going say, there didn't seem much point.

[katieakita]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42009111

 

Another cost cutting Tory exercise and they paid the fvckers at the DVLA a bonus to implement it

[Innovindil]

56 minutes ago, katieakita said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42009111

 

Another cost cutting Tory exercise and they paid the fvckers at the DVLA a bonus to implement it

Was a sodding daft idea from the start tbh. 

[Webbo]

Last year they sent me a reminder by email about a month before, by the time it was due I couldn't remember whether I'd paid or not. When we had the discs you knew. This automation is okay if you're not dealing with incompetent old farts like me.

[Rogstanley]

4 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Employ some architects - as if we've just got millions of architects sat around twiddling their thumbs

Construction is slumping as the Tories promised ‘infrastructure plan’ grinds to an inglorious halt and their house building targets continue to be the most reliably missed targets of all time, so we do have plenty of architects and designers not working at full capacity. Toddy is obviously right to say investing in a school building programme would provide various jobs as well as the school at the end of it. 

Edited 17 November 2017 by Rogstanley

[Carl the Llama]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

Last year they sent me a reminder by email about a month before, by the time it was due I couldn't remember whether I'd paid or not. When we had the discs you knew. This automation is okay if you're not dealing with incompetent old farts like me.

Just an email?  I've found the reminder process unnecessarily wasteful, they sent me at least 3 separate letters about mine in the last month before it expired, I guess there must be a way of opting for paperless if you aren't receiving any?  If you're ever unsure how long you have left on your tax  just google "car tax check" and put your reg into the top result. Bada bing bada boom.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

15 hours ago, toddybad said:

Talk today that the government is going to back down on the next date in the bill and also double the financial offer you the eu. Quite why they faffed about in the first place is beyond me.

Its basic negotiation go in with a low offer, see what the opposite side do and if necessary go in with an increased offer. Basic business skills say never ever open with your best offer!

 

9 hours ago, Webbo said:

Last year they sent me a reminder by email about a month before, by the time it was due I couldn't remember whether I'd paid or not. When we had the discs you knew. This automation is okay if you're not dealing with incompetent old farts like me.

I think the direct debit part on the electronic online part is fantastic. No more ****ing around trying to find your insurance and that bollocks and queuing up at a post office for half an hour. Just setup a direct debit and you never ever have to worry about it again, easy to budget for each month instead of taking a big hit whenever the tax is due.

 

Eventually when we have cameras on every road and black boxes in every car, people wont be able to avoid it.

 

If Labour had come up with some of these ideas Corbyn lovers would have be holding a rally about it. Of course they wouldn't as they are still living in 1974.

Edited 17 November 2017 by Foxin_mad

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

Its basic negotiation go in with a low offer, see what the opposite side do and if necessary go in with an increased offer. Basic business skills say never ever open with your best offer!

 

I think the direct debit part on the electronic online part is fantastic. No more ****ing around trying to find your insurance and that bollocks and queuing up at a post office for half an hour. Just setup a direct debit and you never ever have to worry about it again, easy to budget for each month instead of taking a big hit whenever the tax is due.

 

Eventually when we have cameras on every road and black boxes in every car, people wont be able to avoid it.

 

If Labour had come up with some of these ideas Corbyn lovers would have be holding a rally about it. Of course they wouldn't as they are still living in 1974.

Whereas you are still living in 1979 of you believe that.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Foxin_mad said:

Its basic negotiation go in with a low offer, see what the opposite side do and if necessary go in with an increased offer. Basic business skills say never ever open with your best offer!

 

I think the direct debit part on the electronic online part is fantastic. No more ****ing around trying to find your insurance and that bollocks and queuing up at a post office for half an hour. Just setup a direct debit and you never ever have to worry about it again, easy to budget for each month instead of taking a big hit whenever the tax is due.

 

Eventually when we have cameras on every road and black boxes in every car, people wont be able to avoid it.

 

If Labour had come up with some of these ideas Corbyn lovers would have be holding a rally about it. Of course they wouldn't as they are still living in 1974.

Is there every any part of you that thinks maybe, just maybe, I *don't* need to include a boring, gratuitous, tacked-on footnote about how I perceive Labour/Remain supporters in this post?

[katieakita]

4 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

Its basic negotiation go in with a low offer, see what the opposite side do and if necessary go in with an increased offer. Basic business skills say never ever open with your best offer!

 

I think the direct debit part on the electronic online part is fantastic. No more ****ing around trying to find your insurance and that bollocks and queuing up at a post office for half an hour. Just setup a direct debit and you never ever have to worry about it again, easy to budget for each month instead of taking a big hit whenever the tax is due.

 

Eventually when we have cameras on every road and black boxes in every car, people wont be able to avoid it.

 

If Labour had come up with some of these ideas Corbyn lovers would have be holding a rally about it. Of course they wouldn't as they are still living in 1974.

And in the real world it would have been just so much simpler for the government owned DVLA not to withhold the link to the insurance data base from the government owned Post Office without asking for a multi million pound payment (£20 Million according to a senior POL manager off record) for access to the link. They if you got the multi billion pound costing computer systems of the DVLA and Post Office to communicate with one another it would be even easier. Then of course if the government owned Post Office complied with the governments own NMW laws they may be able to employ more staff. Of course HMG/DVLA when pushing through the removal of tax discs did state that as Police vehicles carry equipment that can identify if a vehicle is road legal within seconds any vehicles illegally using the roads would be dealt with accordingly. 

 

Believe the correct term is penny wise pound foolish. As for Mr Corbyn think you will find he was not that impressed yesterday with the £68 million 1/2 year dividend paid out to the shareholders of Royal Mail the state owned business given away by the coalition to Tory party donors

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Whereas you are still living in 1979 of you believe that.

Better living in 1979 the era of modernisation than before that when the country was on it knees under the control of the unions and going begging to the IMF.

 

Yes as always things are not perfect they never will be but this really is the best of 2 massively incompetent government options.

 

I know you believe otherwise but spending more money we don't have for our children's, children's, children to pay is not the solution, we need to reign it in and pay it off we can then spend the £50billion per year we are paying in interest payments.

 

If Labour get in every single person is in for misery and hardship. They certainly have their slogan correct for the many not the few....what they mean is that their economic incompetence will mean everyone is equal, equally poor.

 

If it wouldn't impact me so badly I would love to see them get to power just to teach the people wishing for Corbyn the clown and his sidekick McDougal get taught a lesson, they would soon realise when the Prosecco dries up, Starbucks and Pret close and when the major tech companies refuse to operate here due to our regressive taxation system!!

 

Unfortunately I would probably see my business close, my livelihood lost and my house claimed for the state or land taxed by these vile spiteful *****. Still power to the people eh?

[Guest Foxin_mad]

12 minutes ago, Voll Blau said:

Is there every any part of you that thinks maybe, just maybe, I *don't* need to include a boring, gratuitous, tacked-on footnote about how I perceive Labour/Remain supporters in this post?

I am a remain supporter  For me the EU is good for business more than bad even though they should accept they have their deficiencies and need to change. But we wont let that get in the way of calling me a tory right wing thicko racist scumbag eh?

 

Perhaps when the others stop making boring, gratuitous, tacked-on footnotes about The Tory scum, right wing bastards, thicko leavers etc. etc.

Edited 17 November 2017 by Foxin_mad