Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Benguin]

3 minutes ago, nnfox said:

Everything will be ok in the end.  To be fair, the EU are coming across as bitter and spiteful at the moment.  Things will calm down and people will start being sensible.  Whatever the deal in the end will be, German car manufacturers, who bank roll the German government, will still sell their cars in the UK market without hitting their profits (or raising their prices).

Aye, you only have to open your curtains to see how much French and German manufacturers need their governments to keep us sweet.

[Benguin]

We export £230 billion a year in goods and services to the EU, whilst EU member states export £290billion goods and services to us per year. It's really simple, either we strike a good deal and both us and the EU benefit, or we don't and we both suffer, clearly the latter won't happen. Based on The Swiss worth to the EU, it's clear the EU will want a good deal, they're just playing poker, Theresa May needs to make it clear that we are more than willing to deliver a hard brexit.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Whilst both of you are confident of getting a 'good deal' from the EU, maybe something you should be more concerned about is what deal the UK end up looking for and whether that fits your idea of a good outcome. 

 

Michael Portillo on This Week (last night) suggested that the outcome the government might pursue in negotiations could end up being be very different to what was being suggested prior to the election. 

 

When pressed on this view, he couldn't give a firm answer as to why and nor could Alan Johnston who was of the same opinion, but these two are well connected and quite perceptive and with some of the noises of a different direction around the government growing a bit stronger and louder, notably Philip Hammond, I don't think there's any certainty on what our position will be when we come to discuss trade... which could be 3/4 months down the line yet as the exit bill and Northern Ireland need to be sorted first according to the agreed time table.

 

Certainly my anticipation at the moment is that there will be some who voted Brexit that will end up dissatisfied with the ultimate outcome.

 

Edited 23 June 2017 by DJ Barry Hammond

[Charl91]

8 minutes ago, Benguin said:

We export £230 billion a year in goods and services to the EU, whilst EU member states export £290billion goods and services to us per year. It's really simple, either we strike a good deal and both us and the EU benefit, or we don't and we both suffer, clearly the latter won't happen. Based on The Swiss worth to the EU, it's clear the EU will want a good deal, they're just playing poker, Theresa May needs to make it clear that we are more than willing to deliver a hard brexit.

 

But not equally.

 

They'll be a little worse off. We'll be fvcked. And it may actually benefit them to set an example, to ensure the future of the rest of the EU.

Edited 23 June 2017 by Charl91

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, Benguin said:

If there's one thing you can be certain of when it comes to the left; particularly the new millennial progressives, it's that there will be protests and, er, clamour, regardless.

The right would be as energised if it wasn't for the fact that they're predominantly the elderly. More seriously, it's very difficult to get het up over an ideology which is basically more of the same - they're called conservatives for a reason. Much simpler to feel passion when your ideology is one of change. And boy we need change. 

 

5 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Whilst both of you are confident of getting a 'good deal' from the EU, maybe something you should be more concerned about is what deal the UK end up looking for and whether that fits your idea of a good outcome. 

 

Michael Portillo on This Week (last night) suggested that the outcome the government might pursue in negotiations could end up being be very different to what was being suggested prior to the election. 

 

When pressed on this view, he couldn't give a firm answer as to why and nor could Alan Johnston who was of the same opinion, but these two are well connected and quite perceptive and with some of the noises of a different direction around the government growing a bit stronger and louder, notably Philip Hammond I don't think there's any certainty on what our position will be when we come to discuss trade... which could be 3/4 months down the line yet as the exit bill and Northern Ireland need to be sorted first according to the agreed time table.

 

Certainly my anticipation at the moment is that there will be some who voted Brexit that will end up dissatisfied with the ultimate outcome.

 

Said this many times, despite my remarks on a second referendum earlier, I still can't see the government doing anything other than caving in to virtually anything to get the trade deal right. If they don't and end up with nothing then the conservatives will be finished, both through party splits and decades with no power.

[Benguin]

1 minute ago, Charl91 said:

 

But not equally.

 

They'll be a little worse off. We'll be fvcked.

No we won't.

 

First reason is because it just won't happen, the foreign manufacturers who benefit from our trade won't just accept it, they'll kick up a fuss, jobs will be lost etc etc. It's in everyone's interest to get a good trade deal in place.

 

Second reason, which is less likely as the only way we don't get a good deal is if we go for a soft brexit, is that we will just increase are exports and imports with other countries and suffer in the short term.

 

If a good deal is achieved then great. If no deal is achieved it won't be long before the majority of people from major EU member states like France and Germany call for a referendum themselves.

 

The future of the EU does rely on a good exit-treaty between itself and us.

[Benguin]

11 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Whilst both of you are confident of getting a 'good deal' from the EU, maybe something you should be more concerned about is what deal the UK end up looking for and whether that fits your idea of a good outcome. 

 

Michael Portillo on This Week (last night) suggested that the outcome the government might pursue in negotiations could end up being be very different to what was being suggested prior to the election. 

 

When pressed on this view, he couldn't give a firm answer as to why and nor could Alan Johnston who was of the same opinion, but these two are well connected and quite perceptive and with some of the noises of a different direction around the government growing a bit stronger and louder, notably Philip Hammond I don't think there's any certainty on what our position will be when we come to discuss trade... which could be 3/4 months down the line yet as the exit bill and Northern Ireland need to be sorted first according to the agreed time table.

 

Certainly my anticipation at the moment is that there will be some who voted Brexit that will end up dissatisfied with the ultimate outcome.

 

I voted leave because I knew the options would be thus:

 

 Best case:

Access to the free the movement of good, capital, services and people but without having to contribute so much money; being able to decide whether or not we want to implement EU directives and regulations; being able to add restrictions on what state relief eu citizens are entitled to whilst in the UK.

 

Worst case:

Swiss-Model, which is not too dissimilar to being a member state but with a few benefits.

 

 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

13 minutes ago, Benguin said:

We export £230 billion a year in goods and services to the EU, whilst EU member states export £290billion goods and services to us per year. It's really simple, either we strike a good deal and both us and the EU benefit, or we don't and we both suffer, clearly the latter won't happen. Based on The Swiss worth to the EU, it's clear the EU will want a good deal, they're just playing poker, Theresa May needs to make it clear that we are more than willing to deliver a hard brexit.

 

The trade negotiations will be interesting, because at present we have an all encompassing deal, everything is included and tariff free, but if we're out of the single market and customs union I don't see how we get that sort of deal.

 

So that could suggest we end up negotiating sector by sector so yes, cars and food will be prominent areas here... but we also export a lot of cars and food into Europe ourselves as well as get these items in, so this area might not be the trump card the leave campaign consistently suggested.

 

It's also worth remember one area we are very one sided on is services, especially financial services, so we may have to give concessions to the EU elsewhere if we are going get a deal here.

 

Ultimately come the end both sides will call whatever deal is a struck a good deal, no ones going to admit they've been shafted are they! But as a country, i think we'll have suffered somewhat for it and will take time for any positive effects to kick in.

 

 

 

 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

12 minutes ago, Benguin said:

I voted leave because I knew the options would be thus:

 

 Best case:

Access to the free the movement of good, capital, services and people but without having to contribute so much money; being able to decide whether or not we want to implement EU directives and regulations; being able to add restrictions on what state relief eu citizens are entitled to whilst in the UK.

 

Worst case:

Swiss-Model, which is not too dissimilar to being a member state but with a few benefits.

 

 

 

The best case you've suggested is not based on any sort of reality... the EU will not agree to that, it would undermine the whole essence of the EU.

 

And I'll be frank with you... this is a complex issue, one that in areas is beyond my capabilities and knowledge and I've followed politics and this subject particularly closely, yet what I'm seeing from your posts is essentially regurgitated soundbites from a referendum campaign that was a year ago and very little free and original thinking that recognises the different position of the situation at present.

 

 

 

[Benguin]

2 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

The trade negotiations will be interesting, because at present we have an all encompassing deal, everything is included and tariff free, but if we're out of the single market and customs union I don't see how we get that sort of deal.

 

So that could suggest we end up negotiating sector by sector so yes, cars and food will be prominent areas here... but we also export a lot of cars and food into Europe ourselves as well as get these items in, so this area might not be the trump card the leave campaign consistently suggested.

 

It's also worth remember one area we are very one sided on is services, especially financial services, so we may have to give concessions to the EU elsewhere if we are going get a deal here.

 

Ultimately come the end both sides will call whatever deal is a struck a good deal, no ones going to admit they've been shafted are they! But as a country, i think we'll have suffered somewhat for it and will take time for any positive effects to kick in.

 

 

 

 

We're one sided for a reason, we can't just look at the effect on our economy with regards to our services. But I agree that whatever happens there is a fair chance we will take a hit before things improve. I think the only long lasting issue so far as brexit is concerned is our legal system, it is going to take several years and lots of legwork to get that sorted but I'm actually glad of this being a 3rd year law student, there's unlikely to be a shortage of graduate opportunities.

[Benguin]

1 minute ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

The best case you've suggested is not based on any sort of reality... the EU will not agree to that, it would undermine the whole essence of the EU.

 

And I'll be frank with you... this is a complex issue, one that in areas is beyond my capabilities and knowledge and I've followed politics and this subject particularly closely, yet what I'm seeing from your posts is essentially regurgitated soundbites from a referendum campaign that was a year ago and very little free and original thinking that recognises the different position of the situation at present.

 

 

 

Well it's based on the fact that a smaller economy managed to gain a good relationship with the EU. We will be in a better negotiating position than Switzerland. I'm not regurgitating anything I am merely stating my opinion.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

Just now, Benguin said:

Well it's based on the fact that a smaller economy managed to gain a good relationship with the EU. We will be in a better negotiating position than Switzerland. I'm not regurgitating anything I am merely stating my opinion.

 

My understanding is the Swiss deal was struck back in 1990 on a sector by sector basis and took a long time to complete - 6 years? 

 

And don't the Swiss participate in freedom of movement, pay budget contributions and end up having to adopt EU law, which would go against some of the UK's red lines?

[Benguin]

15 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

My understanding is the Swiss deal was struck back in 1990 on a sector by sector basis and took a long time to complete - 6 years? 

 

And don't the Swiss participate in freedom of movement, pay budget contributions and end up having to adopt EU law, which would go against some of the UK's red lines?

Yes and no but the point I'm making is that we're in a better negotiating position and that is what I would consider worst case scenario. I fully expect a hard brexit negotiation where we get the deal we want or no deal, suffer short term whilst the EU goes to crap and then form a new EU which is better.

[DJ Barry Hammond]

5 minutes ago, Benguin said:

Yes and no but the point I'm making is that we're in a better negotiating position and that is what I would consider worst case scenario. I fully expect a hard brexit negotiation where we get the deal we want or no deal, suffer short term whilst the EU goes to crap and then form a new EU which is better.

 

Switzerland had a lot of avatanges on its side, geographical position for one. It's also a highly developed country with high disposal incomes and as an exporter produces a variety of niche, specialised products that were unlikely to threaten many other EU states sectors, chocolate aside... and that still took 6 years to conclude that trade deal. 

 

Anyway, best course would be to reserve expectations for now, because for one there's no guarantee Theresa May will last beyond he Conservative Party conference at this rate and she's a little damned if she does, damned if she doesn't in term she of the DUP - how she would have loved 12 foolish and gullible Lib Dems on side right now.

[davieG]

2 hours ago, toddybad said:

I'm starting to get the feeling that the public might clamour for a second referendum before the 2 years are up.

I'm starting to get the feeling you spend all your time looking for negative news about Brexit. Is it bordering on being an obsession?

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, davieG said:

I'm starting to get the feeling you spend all your time looking for negative news about Brexit. Is it bordering on being an obsession?

Not at all Davie. If you saw the Queen's speech, however, you'll know there's going to be precious little else to talk about on this thread unless we get anther election. 

[Charl91]

9 hours ago, Benguin said:

 

Second reason, which is less likely as the only way we don't get a good deal is if we go for a soft brexit, is that we will just increase are exports and imports with other countries and suffer in the short term.

 

 

Now I know you're just unrealistically optimistic.

[Benguin]

3 hours ago, Charl91 said:

 

 

Now I know you're just unrealistically optimistic.

Why?

[Buce]

 

'Sinister'.

 

Leadsom under fire for 'Patriotic Brexit' call:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/24/andrea-leadsom-patriotic-brexit-coverage-newsnight-eu-negotiations

[bovril]

Last refuge of a scoundrel.

[Strokes]

Sounds like a perfectly reasonable viewpoint, a bit of unity wouldn't hurt. 

[Buce]

34 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Sounds like a perfectly reasonable viewpoint, a bit of unity wouldn't hurt. 

 

First step to controlling the media.

[Strokes]

23 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

First step to controlling the media.

What asking them to back the country? Really?

Telling them too is but explaining that they are being detrimental doesn't seem like it to me.

[Buce]

7 minutes ago, Strokes said:

What asking them to back the country? Really?

Telling them too is but explaining that they are being detrimental doesn't seem like it to me.

 

We'll agree to disagree on this one then, Strokes.

[Voll Blau]

It's journalists' jobs to scrutinise government decisions FFS. What a dangerous woman.