Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Realist Guy In The Room]

3 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Every Tory government ends up screwing society to deregulate and privatise.

It would make for a better and clearer landscape if those who religiously vote Tory (i've voted for them in the past but i'm not a disciple) admitted they were fine with that.

 

[Benguin]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Mate, seriously.

If Tory governments were the land of milk and honey they'd never be voted out.

Every Tory government ends up screwing society to save a few quid, much like the current one.

I don't think the Tories are perfect, there is a lot of things they do that I disagree with but you go with the party that best reflects your views and values.

 

The point still stands, a hard brexit where the EU have not negotiated fairly with us and we've walked away with no deal, will be no worse than a post Labour government. I don't see how you could disagree with that given your feelings towards the tories.

[Webbo]

2 minutes ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

It would make for a better and clearer landscape if those who religiously vote Tory (i've voted for them in the past but i'm not a disciple) admitted they were fine with that.

 

I'm all for privatisation and deregulation but I don't believe it screws up society.

[Guest]

Just now, Benguin said:

I don't think the Tories are perfect, there is a lot of things they do that I disagree with but you go with the party that best reflects your views and values.

 

The point still stands, a hard brexit where the EU have not negotiated fairly with us and we've walked away with no deal, will be no worse than a post Labour government. I don't see how you could disagree with that given your feelings towards the tories.

I'm not sure where the link to Labour governments comes in. The last two did leave pretty abhorrent economic landscapes - however in both cases there are mitigations.

In the 1970s the Tories had left Labour with an absolute shambles of a country. What Tory supporters ignore is that the winter of discontent was caused by Labour refusing to pay wage rises of over 5% which led to strikes. The Tories do that in 201x and applaud themselves. In 2008 it was clearly a worldwide crash. 

The Tories too have had economic nightmares - the early years of the 1970s were disastrous under the Tories, they oversaw recession in the early 1990s and they've strangled any chance of a real recovery from the 208 crash through cuts. Neither party has a clean background. 

[Realist Guy In The Room]

5 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I'm all for privatisation and deregulation but I don't believe it screws up society.

I'm 50/50 on it.  Deregulation can have really harmful effects on some sections of society as can privatisation but in most things, a section of people get screwed regardless so as long as its about 90% beneficial, **** it.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Webbo said:

I'm all for privatisation and deregulation but I don't believe it screws up society.

That is really one of the central differences between right wing voters and left wing voters isn't it, in the end?

 

I clearly am not a fan of privatisation but, even if I ignored that, I really cannot fathom how deregulation could ever be a good thing - particularly if you were going to leave decision making to private markets. Surely the theoretical idea of private companies providing services is that you give them a framework for what society needs (the regulation) and they come up with solutions. If you don't give them a structure for what you want then anarchy reigns where they do anything for a profit. The reality is we see that in practice.  

[Benguin]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

I'm not sure where the link to Labour governments comes in. The last two did leave pretty abhorrent economic landscapes - however in both cases there are mitigations.

In the 1970s the Tories had left Labour with an absolute shambles of a country. What Tory supporters ignore is that the winter of discontent was caused by Labour refusing to pay wage rises of over 5% which led to strikes. The Tories do that in 201x and applaud themselves. In 2008 it was clearly a worldwide crash. 

The Tories too have had economic nightmares - the early years of the 1970s were disastrous under the Tories, they oversaw recession in the early 1990s and they've strangled any chance of a real recovery from the 208 crash through cuts. Neither party has a clean background. 

Mate, seriously.

Wee joke regarding that bold bit.

 

I don't want to discuss the pros and cons of every labour and conservative government in the past, I was just making the point that the worst case scenario of a hard brexit, isn't that bad really.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Benguin said:

Mate, seriously.

Wee joke regarding that bold bit.

 

I don't want to discuss the pros and cons of every labour and conservative government in the past, I was just making the point that the worst case scenario of a hard brexit, isn't that bad really.

I think the thing is we don't really know how bad it would be. As you say, WTO tariffs are in play elsewhere and we wouldn't suddenly stop buying goods. But the complexity is huge - often goods made here see numerous parts moving between Britain and mainland Europe multiple times. If tariffs were applied upon each move it might be much more than just a small % on the price. Thing is, nobody really knows. For me that's the real issue, it may not be that bad but we don't know and the decision was made with nothing but faith that this would be the case. Faith isn't a great basis for decision making.

[Guest MattP]

The BBC are actually now promoting Corbyn. 

 

Incredible they somehow still get away with this.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

The BBC are actually now promoting Corbyn. 

 

Incredible they somehow still get away with this.

You seemed happy when they were flagging up all Diane Abbott's misdemeanours? 

Edited 24 June 2017 by Guest

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, toddybad said:

That is really one of the central differences between right wing voters and left wing voters isn't it, in the end?

 

I clearly am not a fan of privatisation but, even if I ignored that, I really cannot fathom how deregulation could ever be a good thing - particularly if you were going to leave decision making to private markets. Surely the theoretical idea of private companies providing services is that you give them a framework for what society needs (the regulation) and they come up with solutions. If you don't give them a structure for what you want then anarchy reigns where they do anything for a profit. The reality is we see that in practice. 

4

Right. In theory a completely free private market would benefit everyone as even the smallest consumer would have a voice and be able to take on and get compensated for bad service from anyone if needs be and so there would always be accountability for any business should they provide bad service. In practice however, given human nature, in the vast majority of cases it doesn't turn out that way - lack of regulation from a source powerful enough to punish a company in any meaningful fashion seems to almost inevitably lead to monopolies and/or cartels which are insured from most kinds of consumer reprisal and so have power without much accountability. Often, indeed, these companies are in cahoots with the regulatory agencies themselves.

[Facecloth]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

The BBC are actually now promoting Corbyn. 

 

Incredible they somehow still get away with this.

How exactly are they "promoting" Corbyn?

[Benguin]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

I think the thing is we don't really know how bad it would be. As you say, WTO tariffs are in play elsewhere and we wouldn't suddenly stop buying goods. But the complexity is huge - often goods made here see numerous parts moving between Britain and mainland Europe multiple times. If tariffs were applied upon each move it might be much more than just a small % on the price. Thing is, nobody really knows. For me that's the real issue, it may not be that bad but we don't know and the decision was made with nothing but faith that this would be the case. Faith isn't a great basis for decision making.

You don't need faith. Obviously you can't say for certain what will happen but it doesn't take any real leap of faith to understand that trade will continue and unreasonable tariffs won't be tolerated by us and wont be put in place by countries who want a piece of our pie hence all of mainland Europe. It's fairly clear to me that so long as we stick to a fair deal or no deal tactic then we will get a good deal. It's in everybody's interest. I strongly believe that if the EU call are bluff and a hard brexit ensues, people on the fence about the EU or else only slightly in favour of it, throughout major eu players such as Germany or France , will switch to being against the EU and it wont be too long before the current union crumbles and a new one is set up.

[Strokes]

I'm pretty neutral on privatisation/nationalisation, being born in the 80s I can't say I really remember any difference between two particular versions of a service. So it's hard to draw comparisons. The only two public services I've had extensive experience of is education (through being at school) and NHS (through being a patient, visiting and my wife being a nurse) both have positive and negative feelings so it's not really a concern to me. I don't think conservatives harm society anymore than Labour do. Both have some shocking acts of policy that have affected people and to pretend that one is more virtuous than the other is disingenuous or delusional.

[Wymsey]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

The BBC are actually now promoting Corbyn. 

 

Incredible they somehow still get away with this.

Quite confident that the Sunday Express didn't approve his decision-making yesterday..

[Realist Guy In The Room]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

The BBC are actually now promoting Corbyn. 

 

Incredible they somehow still get away with this.

To be fair, he's had so much shit from the media (BBC included) in the last couple of years, I cant begrudge him a little bit media positivity.  

[Vardinio'sCat]

On 6/23/2017 at 20:47, nnfox said:

Everything will be ok in the end.  To be fair, the EU are coming across as bitter and spiteful at the moment.  Things will calm down and people will start being sensible.  Whatever the deal in the end will be, German car manufacturers, who bank roll the German government, will still sell their cars in the UK market without hitting their profits (or raising their prices).

 

Hmmm, I really don't think you are right. If there is no deal then there clearly will be tariffs.

 

Germany will probably think that some pain for their car companies is a price worth paying, to hold the EU together.

[Vardinio'sCat]

On 6/23/2017 at 21:06, Benguin said:

We export £230 billion a year in goods and services to the EU, whilst EU member states export £290billion goods and services to us per year. It's really simple, either we strike a good deal and both us and the EU benefit, or we don't and we both suffer, clearly the latter won't happen. Based on The Swiss worth to the EU, it's clear the EU will want a good deal, they're just playing poker, Theresa May needs to make it clear that we are more than willing to deliver a hard brexit.

 

Now relate those numbers to the overall size of the economies you are referring to, and you will see why the EU is in a far better position to play hardball than we are.

[Vardinio'sCat]

On 6/23/2017 at 21:20, Benguin said:

No we won't.

 

First reason is because it just won't happen, the foreign manufacturers who benefit from our trade won't just accept it, they'll kick up a fuss, jobs will be lost etc etc. It's in everyone's interest to get a good trade deal in place.

 

Second reason, which is less likely as the only way we don't get a good deal is if we go for a soft brexit, is that we will just increase are exports and imports with other countries and suffer in the short term.

 

If a good deal is achieved then great. If no deal is achieved it won't be long before the majority of people from major EU member states like France and Germany call for a referendum themselves.

 

The future of the EU does rely on a good exit-treaty between itself and us.

 

You have got it the wrong way round, the future of the EU relies on us not getting a better deal than the one we currently enjoy, or else everyone else will want to do it.

[Buce]

7 hours ago, Wymeswold fox said:

Quite confident that the Sunday Express didn't approve his decision-making yesterday..

 

Incredible they somehow still get away with this..

 

[Buce]

9 hours ago, Facecloth said:

How exactly are they "promoting" Corbyn?

 

By reporting the news instead of making it up..

[Realist Guy In The Room]

5 hours ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

You have got it the wrong way round, the future of the EU relies on us not getting a better deal than the one we currently enjoy, or else everyone else will want to do it.

The only problem with that is, we're all assuming that the negotiations will all be about the EU and the UK deal.  I'm pretty sure they will have already gotten well underway with talking with other nations about trade deals to plug the gap left by us leaving.  On that score they still have the single market as their advantage and i'm sure will lower every barrier possible to make deals happen quickly.

 

As I said in an earlier post, the EU will do all they can to better their position and weaken ours.  The best case scenario for them is the negotiations leaving the UK in economic ruin.

 

The endless calls to be patriotic and the 'I have faith in the British people' line I keep hearing from the Brexit team has worn thin.  The sentiment is all well and good but there has been no evidence or noises so far from either side to suggest that a positive outcome for us is on the cards.

 

I've no doubt that in the long term it'll be a good thing for us but I dont share the view it'll be a rocky few years.  I think it'll be about 20 years before we really start seeing any significant progress as an independent nation.

[Guest]

 

[Buce]

 

Housing Crisis:

 

Low wages and lack of affordable social housing sees a million families under threat of eviction:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jun/24/social-housing-poverty-homeless-shelter-rent

[DJ Barry Hammond]

 

Nice of 'Blowers' to appear on the Marr show dressed as a carrot!