Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

@toddybad as I know you like your post referendum polls.

 

Matthew Goodwin

One year on.... 

Remain 48 (-)
Leave 52% (-)

 

June 16-21, Panelbase

 

#BrexitAnniversary 
#glastonburyfestival2017

Interestingly the exact reverse of the recent survation poll. I think it's fair to say that brexit remains a pretty divisive subject whichever side you're on. 

[Guest MattP]

Very interesting interview with Gerard Coyne on the Sunday Politics - sounds like he's being booted out of his job for challenging McCluskey.

 

Labour moderates should probably start preparing for deselection. 

[davieG]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very interesting interview with Gerard Coyne on the Sunday Politics - sounds like he's being booted out of his job for challenging McCluskey.

 

Labour moderates should probably start preparing for deselection. 

It was on the BBC online last week.

 

Gerard Coyne sacked by Unite as West Midlands secretary

20 June 2017

 

From the section UK Politics

 

 

Mr Coyne says he faced seven charges against him in the disciplinary proceedings

Gerard Coyne, who lost the Unite leadership battle to Len McCluskey - has been sacked as the union's West Midlands regional secretary.

Mr Coyne said he was "deeply disappointed, but not surprised" by his dismissal, which he says he was notified of by email.

He was suspended in April after accusations of bringing Unite into disrepute.

Mr Coyne said he would appeal against the decision.

Mr Coyne said he faced seven charges at a disciplinary hearing but three were thrown out before it got under way and three more were dismissed in the final hearing.

The seventh charge, he said, related to an alleged technical data breach, which was claimed to have damaged the relationship between Unite and the Labour Party.

"This preposterous trumped-up charge has been used to indict me - even though the returning officer from Electoral Reform Services had already ruled that there was no breach of the rules," Mr Coyne added.

During the proceedings, he said "no complaint was raised" about the way he carried out the role in the 16 years he held it.

 

But, he says he was told union rules required his role to be "the general secretary's representative in the region".

"It was implied that, because of the way I criticised Len McCluskey during the campaign, I could not fulfil that role," he added.

"It was always clear to me that the charges were nothing more than a stitch-up. My real 'crime' was having the audacity to challenge Mr McCluskey in the General Secretary election that he called unnecessarily," he added.

"It is a public warning to any member of Unite's staff who is thinking of challenging the way the McCluskey gang run the union: step out of line and you will be out of a job. Political dissent is not tolerated inside Unite."

A spokesman for the union said: "The decision is subject to a right of appeal to Unite's executive council, and the union will be offering no further comment on the matter."

[davieG]

Brexit: David Davis 'pretty sure' of free trade deal

10 minutes ago

 

From the sectionUK Politics

 

Brexit Secretary David Davis has told the BBC he is "pretty sure", but not "certain", that he will be able to get a free trade deal with the EU.

He told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show that other EU states "have a very strong interest in getting a good deal".

"I'm pretty sure, I'm not 100% sure - it's a negotiation."

But he said that if the UK was only offered a "punishment deal" then it had to be prepared to "walk away... we have to plan for that".

He also defended Theresa May as a "very good prime minister" - although said she was "under pressure".

Archbishop: Draw the poison from Brexit

Post Brexit deals 'for poorest countries'

When asked if it would be "catastrophic" for Brexit negotiations for there to be a Tory leadership contest, he replied: "Yes."

"Let me be absolutely plain about this, number one, I happen to think we have got a very good prime minister. I know she is coming under a lot of pressure at the moment, but I have seen her in action.

"I think she is very good. She makes good decisions. She's bold. She takes her time.

"Point number two is, I want a stable backdrop to this Brexit negotiation."

'No deal'

Mr Davis is heading up the UK side of negotiations, and began talks last week with his EU counterpart Michel Barnier. Of Mr Barnier, he said: "He wants a deal as much as we want a deal, I think."

Mrs May has been criticised by some for saying "no deal is better than a bad deal" with the EU.

 

Last week, Chancellor Philip Hammond said "no deal would be a very, very bad outcome for Britain" although he went on to say a "worse outcome" would be a deal "deliberately structured to suck the lifeblood out of our economy".

When Mr Davis was asked by Marr whether he was sure there would be a deal, he said: "I'm pretty sure, I am not 100% sure, you can never be, it's a negotiation.

Reminded of his past words that "we are guaranteed to get a deal", Mr Davis said: "You can be sure there will be a deal, whether it's the deal I want which is the free trade agreement, the customs agreement and so on - I'm pretty sure but I'm not certain."

On the prospect of no deal, he said a bad deal "would be better than a punishment deal".

"We cannot have a circumstance where the other side says that they are going to punish you. So if that happens then there is a walkaway, and we have to plan for that."

Image copyrightBBC/JEFF OVERS

Image captionMr Davis says part of his job is planning for a bad outcome in Brexit talks

But he said he wanted to deliver an outcome "which helps both sides" and said it was likely there would be a transitional period, after the UK leaves the EU, for new rules to come into force, probably of "one to two years".

Mr Davis also said he wanted to get a deal on the rights of EU citizens in the UK, and UK citizens living in other EU states, "through now" and to discuss the issue of how the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish republic will operate, although he acknowledged that it would not be concluded in the negotiations this summer.

He said the government wanted to have an "invisible border" between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic and said there was lots of "technical stuff" to start working on now - such as number plate recognition and "trusted trailer schemes".

[Rincewind]

1 hour ago, Facecloth said:

So Corbyn is invited to an event the BBC are covering (not by the BBC). Incidentally, I believe they didn't broadcast the speech on any of their Glastonbury broadcasts across the network. Someone spots Corbyn holding his mic like a musician at a music event and thinks it'd be funny to make out that he's just sung a song and stick it on twitter. You think that's promoting him?  ****ing hell, you poor little snowflake. How dare they post a picture of a man with no political context, appearing somewhere.  

 

Theres a reason why people make nice jokes about Corbyn and nasty ones about May. Because he's a nice bloke, who whatever you think of his politics doesn't make a twat of himself by saying things like the naughtiest thing he ever did was run through fields of ****ing wheat, or walks away from homeless people without even a word or a show of empathy. He shows up, puts out a positive message, gets the crowd going, he talks to people, he shows he cares.

 

One of two things are happening here. You fear him because he's gaining traction, so like you accuse others of doing with the likes of Farage or Robinson, you attempt to shut it down. Even the non-political stuff. Anything that shows him in a good light must be hidden for fear of people's opinion of him improving. Or you actually like him but daren't admit it, so you make outlandish claims against him and anything that shows him positively. Bit like a gay man in denial. Thou doth protest too much.

 

Actually there's a third one, you're being over sensitive .

agreed

[Alf Bentley]

17 minutes ago, MattP said:

Very interesting interview with Gerard Coyne on the Sunday Politics - sounds like he's being booted out of his job for challenging McCluskey.

 

Labour moderates should probably start preparing for deselection. 

 

What has happened with Coyne at Unite certainly sounds dodgy.

 

Your second point might be wishful thinking. Corbyn just appointed Owen Smith, his 2016 leadership challenger, as Shadow N. Ireland Secretary (though Smith is soft left, not a Blairite).

He's also just been down in Hove, saying kind words about the local Labour MP Peter Kyle, one if his most vocal critics: 

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/15368781.Hundreds_mob_Labour_leader_in_Brighton_as_he_backs__loyal_party_member__Peter_Kyle/

 

"He also added there was “no problem” between him and Hove MP Peter Kyle who had assured Corbyn-sceptic voters on the campaign trail a vote for him would not mean Jeremy Corbyn would be Prime Minister.

The more centrist and pro-EU Hove MP delivered one of the biggest swings for Labour nationwide on June 8.

Mr Corbyn said the Hove MP was re-elected as a Labour MP with residents backing a Labour candidate.

He added Mr Kyle was “a loyal party member” who he was sure would vote along with other Labour MPs to protect the rights of EU citizens, to maintain tariff-free trade and European funding for universities".

 

I'm not naive. I assume that, sooner or later, efforts will be made to dislodge a few Blairite MPs - just as Eurosceptic Tory activists might seek to dislodge a few Europhiles. The extent to which either succeed will depend partly on how well-liked the individual MP is. At the moment, I can't imagine the Hard Left concentrating on deselections and internal faction-fighting, when another election could potentially be called in the coming months. I'm sure Momentum will be seeking to take control of constituencies and branches, but deselections might have to wait until after the next election...... 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

What has happened with Coyne at Unite certainly sounds dodgy.

 

Your second point might be wishful thinking. Corbyn just appointed Owen Smith, his 2016 leadership challenger, as Shadow N. Ireland Secretary (though Smith is soft left, not a Blairite).

He's also just been down in Hove, saying kind words about the local Labour MP Peter Kyle, one if his most vocal critics: 

http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/15368781.Hundreds_mob_Labour_leader_in_Brighton_as_he_backs__loyal_party_member__Peter_Kyle/

 

"He also added there was “no problem” between him and Hove MP Peter Kyle who had assured Corbyn-sceptic voters on the campaign trail a vote for him would not mean Jeremy Corbyn would be Prime Minister.

The more centrist and pro-EU Hove MP delivered one of the biggest swings for Labour nationwide on June 8.

Mr Corbyn said the Hove MP was re-elected as a Labour MP with residents backing a Labour candidate.

He added Mr Kyle was “a loyal party member” who he was sure would vote along with other Labour MPs to protect the rights of EU citizens, to maintain tariff-free trade and European funding for universities".

 

I'm not naive. I assume that, sooner or later, efforts will be made to dislodge a few Blairite MPs - just as Eurosceptic Tory activists might seek to dislodge a few Europhiles. The extent to which either succeed will depend partly on how well-liked the individual MP is. At the moment, I can't imagine the Hard Left concentrating on deselections and internal faction-fighting, when another election could potentially be called in the coming months. I'm sure Momentum will be seeking to take control of constituencies and branches, but deselections might have to wait until after the next election...... 

Just to be clear I'm not for one minute suggesting Corbyn would be behind the de-selections. 

 

I don't think he would do much to stop it though if McDonnell instructed the momentum lot to start getting involved with the local branches of some MP's. 

 

His appointment of Owen Smith was interesting whilst ignoring far more talented backbenchers. 

[Alf Bentley]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

Just to be clear I'm not for one minute suggesting Corbyn would be behind the de-selections. 

 

I don't think he would do much to stop it though if McDonnell instructed the momentum lot to start getting involved with the local branches of some MP's. 

 

His appointment of Owen Smith was interesting whilst ignoring far more talented backbenchers. 

 

I'm sure attempted deselections could happen at some point, but might only succeed in constituencies where Momentum is particularly strong and/or the local MP is useless or unpopular, as well as moderate.

A ceasefire probably suits all sides at the moment. If the Tories get settled into government for a few years or another election produces a conclusive result, deselections might become an issue (or agitation against Corbyn).

 

Having achieved a surprisingly good election result on his own terms, Corbyn is entitled to ensure his followers retain control of the shadow cabinet - though he's reappointed non-Corbynite moderates like Starmer & Ashworth, too.

Maybe he and McDonnell will spend the coming months / year or two seeing which of the "talented backbench" moderates get behind the programme, even if they disagree with parts of it - and which continue to carp. If the leadership has any sense, they'll then selectively reintroduce one or two talented moderates to the shadow cabinet, while retaining political control (in case times get tough) - and will leave anyone causing trouble on the backbenches.

[Innovindil]

Free trade deals with developing countries will continue post-Brexit, the government has said.

 

Tariff free tea. We're gonna be fine. 

[DJ Barry Hammond]

2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Free trade deals with developing countries will continue post-Brexit, the government has said.

 

Tariff free tea. We're gonna be fine. 

 

Maybe we'll see the return of Um Bongo too?

[Buce]

3 minutes ago, DJ Barry Hammond said:

 

Maybe we'll see the return of Um Bongo too?

 

Invented in Cumbria, 1983..

[Charl91]

 

[Guest MattP]

5 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

 

It's pretty amazing the Tories can still command that with May at the helm.

 

Does show there is a solid 40% out there that will literally vote anything to stop Jeremy Corbyn being Prime Minister. 

[Buce]

17 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's pretty amazing the Tories can still command that with May at the helm.

 

Does show there is a solid 40% out there that will literally vote anything to stop Jeremy Corbyn being Prime Minister. 

 

Or alternatively, it shows that 46% will vote for someone who we are constantly told is unelectable, rather than have a Tory govt.

 

All depends on your spin, Matt.

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, MattP said:

It's pretty amazing the Tories can still command that with May at the helm.

 

Does show there is a solid 40% out there that will literally vote anything to stop Jeremy Corbyn being Prime Minister. 

Think you be extrapolating based on your own opinions there Matty.

There will be some who think like that. There'll also be others who will vote Tory no matter how bad their leader, how badly the economy is failing ordinary people and no matter how crap their manifesto......

[Izzy]

6 minutes ago, toddybad said:

There'll also be others who will vote Tory no matter how bad their leader, how badly the economy is failing ordinary people and no matter how crap their manifesto......

I reckon there's millions of Tory voters who would just never vote Labour under any circumstances - and visa versa. For many people it's like supporting a football team and you never change your allegiance. You're either blue or red and that's that...

[Guest MattP]

41 minutes ago, Buce said:

Or alternatively, it shows that 46% will vote for someone who we are constantly told is unelectable, rather than have a Tory govt.

 

All depends on your spin, Matt.

Spin? You really I'm trying to turn this positive? 

 

It's disastrous. 

[Vardinio'sCat]

6 hours ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

The only problem with that is, we're all assuming that the negotiations will all be about the EU and the UK deal.  I'm pretty sure they will have already gotten well underway with talking with other nations about trade deals to plug the gap left by us leaving.  On that score they still have the single market as their advantage and i'm sure will lower every barrier possible to make deals happen quickly.

 

As I said in an earlier post, the EU will do all they can to better their position and weaken ours.  The best case scenario for them is the negotiations leaving the UK in economic ruin.

 

The endless calls to be patriotic and the 'I have faith in the British people' line I keep hearing from the Brexit team has worn thin.  The sentiment is all well and good but there has been no evidence or noises so far from either side to suggest that a positive outcome for us is on the cards.

 

I've no doubt that in the long term it'll be a good thing for us but I dont share the view it'll be a rocky few years.  I think it'll be about 20 years before we really start seeing any significant progress as an independent nation.

 

Imho, I do think the EU need to see us take a hit economically, but I wouldn't think that would have to be ruinous. They just need to make a point to any other countries with itchy feet.

 

I agree with your instinct on the time this will take to play out, I'm not sure everyone gets how long this will take. Brexit fatigue is going to be a thing! 

 

[Guest MattP]

43 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Think you be extrapolating based on your own opinions there Matty.

There will be some who think like that. There'll also be others who will vote Tory no matter how bad their leader, how badly the economy is failing ordinary people and no matter how crap their manifesto......

Sorry but I find it hard to believe 40% of voters are genuinely enthused about a Theresa May led party.

 

Ordinary people? You realise the last election saw a small swing to Tories in working class areas and a massive swing to Labour in middle class ones yeah? 

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Sorry but I find it hard to believe 40% of voters are genuinely enthused about a Theresa May led party.

 

Ordinary people? You realise the last election saw a small swing to Tories in working class areas and a massive swing to Labour in middle class ones yeah? 

 

Are middle class people not ordinary?

[Jon the Hat]

5 hours ago, MattP said:

First of all he can say whatever he wants, I would never ever shut down what he says. I've never tried to do that and you know it.

 

When the state broadcaster doesn't show impartially it should be a concern for all. You shouldn't just turn turn a blind eye because it's the party you support - they know the did wrong hence why they deleted it.

 

As for being a nice bloke, I'd imagine that depends on who you talk to, I doubt many Jewish folk would see him as a particularly nice person given his history.

 

I do wonder how well he would have gone down at Glastonbury had he said "I'll honour my manifesto commitment to deliver Brexit and end freedom of movement"? - rather just just promising cash he hasn't got to the crowd.

A young woman in the tv this morning said of Corbyn "he has always been on the right side of history". Unbelievable.

[Jon the Hat]

1 hour ago, toddybad said:

Think you be extrapolating based on your own opinions there Matty.

There will be some who think like that. There'll also be others who will vote Tory no matter how bad their leader, how badly the economy is failing ordinary people and no matter how crap their manifesto......

The economy which is employing more people than ever before, and performing way better than all economic forecast after the Brexit vote?

[Sharpe's Fox]

2 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

A young woman in the tv this morning said of Corbyn "he has always been on the right side of history". Unbelievable.

Might want to get your tele sorted out

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, MattP said:

Sorry but I find it hard to believe 40% of voters are genuinely enthused about a Theresa May led party.

 

Ordinary people? You realise the last election saw a small swing to Tories in working class areas and a massive swing to Labour in middle class ones yeah? 

The majority of normal people think they're middle class these days. Even a cursury look at the stats shows that the dividing line is age not class these days. 

 

12 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The economy which is employing more people than ever before, and performing way better than all economic forecast after the Brexit vote?

Ha, you've picked about the only good stat there is. Almost all of the others - rising inflation, falling wages, slowing growth etc are detrimental to tory austerity extremism. 

[Guest MattP]

31 minutes ago, Buce said:

Are middle class people not ordinary?

When talking politics I've never really assumed the term "ordinary" as to mean the middle classes.

 

When someone says "ordinary man in the street" it doesn't really conjure up the image a man from Canterbury or Kensington.

 

16 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

A young woman in the tv this morning said of Corbyn "he has always been on the right side of history". Unbelievable.

Incredible what we are dealing with.