Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Milo]

18 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

I'm sure his contribution would have been more elucidating than those of any politician on either side. 

Had to rep you for using the word ‘elucidating’ on a football forum 

[Alf Bentley]

18 minutes ago, Milo said:

Company owned by German/Spanish/French governments in Brexit threat shocker... 

 

 

...is a more accurate headline

 

Doesn't sound very accurate according to Wikpedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus

 

"Airbus is a European multinational corporation that designs, manufactures and sells civil and military aeronautical products worldwide".

Owner	As of September 2016:[5] France: 11.1% Germany (through GZBV): 11.09% Spain: 4.2% Others: 73.6%

 

Mainly owned as a publicly-listed multinational corporation, as I understand it. The Fr/Ger/Sp govts have a minority stake by various means.

 

Any "threat" isn't against Brexit, either, just against No Deal and no membership of a Customs Union.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

It may not sit with the meps but nations hold vetos over EU law making.

 

And I'm not really fussed whether it's sovereinty or not. If sovereignty means we're worse off then it's a strange thing to be chasing. 

 

That's absolutely fine, I just wish more Remain voters would admit that rather than try and claim we have it when we give it away.

[Milo]

1 minute ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Doesn't sound very accurate according to Wikpedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus

 

"Airbus is a European multinational corporation that designs, manufactures and sells civil and military aeronautical products worldwide".

Owner	As of September 2016:[5] France: 11.1% Germany (through GZBV): 11.09% Spain: 4.2% Others: 73.6%

 

Mainly owned as a publicly-listed multinational corporation, as I understand it. The Fr/Ger/Sp govts have a minority stake by various means.

 

Any "threat" isn't against Brexit, either, just against No Deal and no membership of a Customs Union.

Powerful stakeholders that have a vested interest in the UK’s position regarding Brexit. 

 

No coincidence that they’re the first of the big boys to shoot a warning shot across the bows during this (quite delicate) Govt negotiation process, imo. 

[Guest MattP]

Does anyone still seriously believe they'll be no deal?

 

All sides are clearly quite keen to do one.

[Alf Bentley]

1 minute ago, Milo said:

Powerful stakeholders that have a vested interest in the UK’s position regarding Brexit. 

 

No coincidence that they’re the first of the big boys to shoot a warning shot across the bows during this (quite delicate) Govt negotiation process, imo. 

 

As a multinational heavily involved in importing & exporting, it certainly has a vested interest in the type of Brexit that is agreed - and a statutory duty to protect shareholders' interests.

I'm not sure how powerful a stake 11% or 4% is, though. Other shareholders wouldn't accept the tail wagging the dog unless the dog was happy to be wagged.... 

 

Maybe the Fr/Sp/Ger national govts exerted some influence, maybe not. I've no idea - and suspect you are guessing, too.

It might seem likely to some, but no transition and no customs deal would clearly damage the interests of the whole company, as a European corporation reliant on international trade.

So it could just be corporate management lobbying for stakeholders' interests.

 

Further proof that No Deal is the worst possible outcome.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Further proof that No Deal is the worst possible outcome.

Not 100% true.

 

There could be a deal the EU proposes that heavily favours the EU manufacturers (cars etc) and not for instance our service sector in return. Now that would be the worst possible outcome for the UK.

 

Really if we can not get a deal that protects our interests then there is no point us doing a deal to help the European motor industry. I would rather them be tariffed at whatever the maximum allowable rate is and source our cars from elsewhere in another deal. 

 

I hope we can strike a decent deal but to be honest I have little faith in this government or the official opposition to get us one. 

 

As a country if we are going to do this properly we need a lot more balls. We need to make it very clear that in the event of no deal, we will make it almost impossible or very unattractive to buy European goods. We are the 5th biggest consumer market place on the planet, that is not going to change regardless of whether we are Brexit Britain or non Brexit people will still want to sell us stuff. We need to be clear that this stuff wont be European if no deal is done. 

Edited 22 June 2018 by Foxin_mad

[Alf Bentley]

5 minutes ago, MattP said:

Does anyone still seriously believe they'll be no deal?

 

All sides are clearly quite keen to do one.

 

Largely depends on the UK's stance, I think. Hopefully sense will prevail, but I wouldn't completely bank on it.

 

I doubt that the EU will make anything other than minor concessions and fudges - and the sides still seem a long way apart on various issues (Irish border & Customs, notably).

 

Ultimately, the UK will be able to operate its own Customs regime if it wants, with all the extra costs, disruption, barriers and lost trade/business that will create. That wouldn't prevent a transition deal or talks on the future EU-UK relationship, I presume.

Though any future relationship would remain very much arm's length with significant costs, barriers and losses.

 

I might be wrong, but I presume the UK will have to back down big time on the Irish border. Then there's all the internal Tory politics: can the govt get such a Hard Brexit deal on Customs through parliament - or can it get a Soft Brexit deal through if May backtracks and does some sort of deal on Customs and selective Single Market access (which would probably require massive concessions to the EU).... 

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, MattP said:

That's absolutely fine, I just wish more Remain voters would admit that rather than try and claim we have it when we give it away.

I'm not sure we have given it away though. Sure, it seems that we have, but even the government white paper started by saying that we have always had sovereignty, even if it hasn't always felt like it. The various features of the numerous deals, treaties and regulations that are in place make the whole thing pretty unfathomable to almost anybody so I'm not entirely convinced that mattp, ids or Liam Fox are fully aware of the entire machinations of the system more than the civil servants who believe that sovereignty is maintained. Just because one court can overrule another (when it misapplies uk law) is pretty flimsy evidence given that every trade deal we ever sign will create a supranational arbitrator that can overrule our court and parliament. 

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, MattP said:

Does anyone still seriously believe they'll be no deal?

 

All sides are clearly quite keen to do one.

The Irish border appears the biggest problem and the one issue that could cause this

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

 

Largely depends on the UK's stance, I think. Hopefully sense will prevail, but I wouldn't completely bank on it.

 

I doubt that the EU will make anything other than minor concessions and fudges - and the sides still seem a long way apart on various issues (Irish border & Customs, notably).

 

Ultimately, the UK will be able to operate its own Customs regime if it wants, with all the extra costs, disruption, barriers and lost trade/business that will create. That wouldn't prevent a transition deal or talks on the future EU-UK relationship, I presume.

Though any future relationship would remain very much arm's length with significant costs, barriers and losses.

 

I might be wrong, but I presume the UK will have to back down big time on the Irish border. Then there's all the internal Tory politics: can the govt get such a Hard Brexit deal on Customs through parliament - or can it get a Soft Brexit deal through if May backtracks and does some sort of deal on Customs and selective Single Market access (which would probably require massive concessions to the EU).... 

I still just don't see a situation where no deal is done on trade, both sides would be hurting themselves to a pretty terrible extent and there is surely no desire for that given the external problems both face going forward. 

 

As regards to the Irish border, I think.the government needs to be stronger on the issue and keep on making it abundantly clear we will not be putting any sort of border up whatever happens.

 

If you watched the Rees-Mogg video you'll see how much difficulty Verhofstadt had answering the question of whether the EU would insist on Ireland putting a border up if we didn't. I still see no reason why that has to happen whatever Brexit occurs.

[Guest MattP]

I'm certain @Sharpe's Fox was in charge of security at Labour live.

 

People who unfurled a "Stop backing Brexit" banner during Corbyn's speech were thrown out of the event. 

 

 

Edited 22 June 2018 by MattP

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

I still just don't see a situation where no deal is done on trade, both sides would be hurting themselves to a pretty terrible extent and there is surely no desire for that given the external problems both face going forward. 

 

As regards to the Irish border, I think.the government needs to be stronger on the issue and keep on making it abundantly clear we will not be putting any sort of border up whatever happens.

 

If you watched the Rees-Mogg video you'll see how much difficulty Verhofstadt had answering the question of whether the EU would insist on Ireland putting a border up if we didn't. I still see no reason why that has to happen whatever Brexit occurs.

 

I hope you're right about trade - but any deal on trade won't be done for at least a couple of years (apart from a few broad outlines, which could easily fall apart in subsequent negotiations over the future relationship).

Whereas any deal on the transition, the divorce terms, EU/UK citizens' rights and the Irish border needs to be done in the next few months, surely? I suppose there could be some fudge on Ireland, but it doesn't sound likely - and if that issue is settled, then the future Customs relationship will presumably be settled....meaning an arm's-length trading deal, if any, I presume....

 

If there's no need for Customs controls on the Irish border, why doesn't the UK also get rid of Customs controls at Heathrow, Dover, Southampton etc.?

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I hope you're right about trade - but any deal on trade won't be done for at least a couple of years (apart from a few broad outlines, which could easily fall apart in subsequent negotiations over the future relationship).

Whereas any deal on the transition, the divorce terms, EU/UK citizens' rights and the Irish border needs to be done in the next few months, surely? I suppose there could be some fudge on Ireland, but it doesn't sound likely - and if that issue is settled, then the future Customs relationship will presumably be settled....meaning an arm's-length trading deal, if any, I presume....

 

If there's no need for Customs controls on the Irish border, why doesn't the UK also get rid of Customs controls at Heathrow, Dover, Southampton etc.?

It still wouldn't surprise me, like many negotiations, if it was all agreed pretty last minute with both sides still playing hardball until the very end.

 

If we have to get rid of customs controls on the Irish border to "keep the peace" surely that's a price worth paying. I have no idea how that would work though if we intend to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU which appears to be one of the plans we propose. 

[Alf Bentley]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

It still wouldn't surprise me, like many negotiations, if it was all agreed pretty last minute with both sides still playing hardball until the very end.

 

If we have to get rid of customs controls on the Irish border to "keep the peace" surely that's a price worth paying. I have no idea how that would work though if we intend to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU which appears to be one of the plans we propose. 

 

Yep, all dragging on till a panicky last-minute deal is possible.....though hopefully not as that itself would cause major damage through the uncertainty for businesses and others, who might well make alternative investment plans etc.

 

I've got to work so haven't the time to try to get my head round this Irish border business - though collecting tariffs for the EU would certainly be "interesting" when 90% of cross-border trade is done by small traders or farmers, some probably non-computerised, trading across a border hundreds of miles long with dozens of remote crossings....a recipe for tariff-avoidance detrimental to the EU and Irish domestic traders, I'd guess. Cannot see how that would work.

 

How would it work if the UK imposed no customs controls and the EU did? Hard Brexiteers would have the opportunity for a bit of rhetorical point-scoring. But, in the meantime, Northern Ireland/UK would be accepting tariff-free, red-tape-free imports from the EU, while its exporters had to pay tariffs and cope with red tape to export to the Irish Republic. That could enrage Northern Irish traders......and who would know what was really in lorries coming into NI/UK? Substandard produce? Smuggled goods? Romanian migrants heading for Britain? I can see the attraction of this as a rhetorical bit of point-scoring for Brexiteers, but could be a nightmare in practice.

 

[Sharpe's Fox]

55 minutes ago, MattP said:

I'm certain @Sharpe's Fox was in charge of security at Labour live.

 

People who unfurled a "Stop backing Brexit" banner during Corbyn's speech were thrown out of the event. 

 

 

 

These weirdos need to learn how to campaign. Why are they harassing the Labour Party instead of making they're own case for EU membership? If they really like outsourcing, privatisation, low pay and reduction in trade union rights and all their other neoliberal basketcase bullshit then they can argue for it with their own movement instead of attempting to hijack one that argues the opposite.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Does anyone still seriously believe they'll be no deal?

 

All sides are clearly quite keen to do one.

Edited 22 June 2018 by Strokes

[Beechey]

3 hours ago, toddybad said:

Basically all the Tory austerity.chickens are coming home to roost at once. They've underfunded.everything for years so either need to break their own economic rules (Hammond has already said there's no money left) or see services decimated. 

I'd class myself as a fiscal conservative, but there are things I'd happily the government borrow money for, one is infrastructure spending etc, the others health and defence. SDSR 2010 was an utter travesty and caused untold damage to UK capabilities.

Edited 22 June 2018 by Beechey

[Guest MattP]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Yep, all dragging on till a panicky last-minute deal is possible.....though hopefully not as that itself would cause major damage through the uncertainty for businesses and others, who might well make alternative investment plans etc.

 

I've got to work so haven't the time to try to get my head round this Irish border business - though collecting tariffs for the EU would certainly be "interesting" when 90% of cross-border trade is done by small traders or farmers, some probably non-computerised, trading across a border hundreds of miles long with dozens of remote crossings....a recipe for tariff-avoidance detrimental to the EU and Irish domestic traders, I'd guess. Cannot see how that would work.

 

How would it work if the UK imposed no customs controls and the EU did? Hard Brexiteers would have the opportunity for a bit of rhetorical point-scoring. But, in the meantime, Northern Ireland/UK would be accepting tariff-free, red-tape-free imports from the EU, while its exporters had to pay tariffs and cope with red tape to export to the Irish Republic. That could enrage Northern Irish traders......and who would know what was really in lorries coming into NI/UK? Substandard produce? Smuggled goods? Romanian migrants heading for Britain? I can see the attraction of this as a rhetorical bit of point-scoring for Brexiteers, but could be a nightmare in practice.

 

Fcuked if I know Alf - If I did then I'd wouldn't be on here. Although the reasoning that 90% of cross-border trade is done by small traders or farmers should really be enough to show this can be treatly differently to the port at Dover or Folkestone, the easiest thing of course would be tariff free access worked out in some way, I'm still hopeful that will happen, in the meantime I hope we continue to make it clear we will not be putting up a border under any circumstance whatsoever, it's about time we put some pressure on the EU for this.

I know we'll have the argument about SRA between the countries, but that doesn't really happen anyway, they have different things in the North and South varying from taxation to all sorts of law and they've managed to work through that fine in the past.

[DANGEROUS TIGER]

I still want a hard "Brexit!" Nothing short of that will keep this old lad happy. Stuff the EU, and the weaklings who call themselves "remainers."

 

I will receive a backlash no doubt, but I'm not going to waste more time responding to their ilk. Got it? 

[Alf Bentley]

3 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

I still want a hard "Brexit!" Nothing short of that will keep this old lad happy. Stuff the EU, and the weaklings who call themselves "remainers."

 

I will receive a backlash no doubt, but I'm not going to waste more time responding to their ilk. Got it? 

 

Steady on, DT! 

 

You came back from hospital as Nice Tiger, now you're turning all Dangerous again. 

 

But I can't do anything but sit here smiling, after watching Musa play a blinder for Nigeria. 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, DANGEROUS TIGER said:

I still want a hard "Brexit!" Nothing short of that will keep this old lad happy. Stuff the EU, and the weaklings who call themselves "remainers."

 

I will receive a backlash no doubt, but I'm not going to waste more time responding to their ilk. Got it? 

I would waste my breathe backlashing against a hard brexit dotard.

Edited 22 June 2018 by Guest

[Guest]

I'm putting this here because it is worse than just the US. If you read the sun or daily mail comments sections you'll recognise the casual racism that talks about people like their animals. The world appears to be heading in a very dark direction.

 

Inspired by Trump, the world could be heading back to the 1930s

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/22/trump-world-1930s-children-parents-europe-migrants?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

Edited 22 June 2018 by Guest

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Milo said:

Powerful stakeholders that have a vested interest in the UK’s position regarding Brexit. 

 

No coincidence that they’re the first of the big boys to shoot a warning shot across the bows during this (quite delicate) Govt negotiation process, imo. 

Anyone suggesting this is a scare story should consider the penalties for publishing inaccurate information about a listed company,. Business leaders, unlike politicians, have a legal obligation to be truthful about anything which may influence share prices.

Airbus are just telling it like it is and seem to be understating the threat. It's a huge company and operating plans stretch years into the future. They've clearly made contingency plans for a no-deal meltdown and are obliged to share those concerns as the cliff-edge nears.

[Strokes]

52 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Anyone suggesting this is a scare story should consider the penalties for publishing inaccurate information about a listed company,. Business leaders, unlike politicians, have a legal obligation to be truthful about anything which may influence share prices.

Airbus are just telling it like it is and seem to be understating the threat. It's a huge company and operating plans stretch years into the future. They've clearly made contingency plans for a no-deal meltdown and are obliged to share those concerns as the cliff-edge nears.

Who gives a shit about airbus, the welfare train can pick up the tab. All the global conglomerate twats can take a running jump of that cliff, they give us nothing.