Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Sharpe's Fox]

4 minutes ago, MattP said:

Vegetarianism is a mental illness that is anti-humanity.  

[Rincewind]

I always thought vegetarianism was a chice but you lrarn something every day.  

[Guest MattP]

Surprised no one has posted this given it was in the Guardian. They can't even come to an agreement now on whether we should try and stay in the Customs Union.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/24/labour-at-loggerheads-over-staying-in-customs-union-post-brexit

Quote

 

Members of Labour’s shadow cabinet are at loggerheads over whether Britain can hope to remain in the customs union when it leaves the EU, the Guardian can reveal.

Barry Gardiner, the shadow trade secretary, has argued that the only option open to the UK would be a Turkey-style customs agreement, but claimed that such a deal would be “a disaster” as it would leave the UK in a weak position.

However, the shadow Brexit and foreign secretaries, Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry, have told senior Labour colleagues that Britain could negotiate a better deal than Turkey and should be trying to do so.

 

 

Meanwhile, a wonderful video has emerged of a Labour shadow minister promising to cancel all student debt before the election. Just why oh why didn't Jeremy step in and make sure we all knew this was bollocks? I have no idea why, anybody?

 

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/889772050876968960/video/1

 

 

[Guest MattP]

[Carl the Llama]

Not sure why gm keeps getting dropped into comments over the past few pages but as a quick aside if you have a blanket issue with genetic modification then either you don't really understand why you have a problem with it (probably some scary science stuff) or you're very clued up and you really do want the 3rd world to struggle to feed itself, have never kept any pets and have never eaten any high-quality meat nor bought vegetables from the supermarket.  All of these things have benefited from gm in some way shape or form.

[The Floyd]

1 hour ago, Captain... said:

You seem to have missed the point, this is about reducing red tape around legally changing your gender, it has  no baring on the medical side of it which has a number of measures and safeguards in place. Including extensive counseling and therapy, and these measures will not change because a bit of admin is now easier. All they are doing is making the legal process more straight forward which will save time, money effort and distress. It will not be a case of just phoning up and saying I'm now a woman.

I'm not sure that I have missed the point. Firstly, to suggest it has no bearing on the medical side of it is wholly inaccurate, the entire purpose of the Justine Greening's proposal is to remove the need for a medical diagnosis, as this is apparently offensive. If you're eliminating the need for medical diagnosis, who's to say that trans people won't take offence in the future when they're allowed to change their gender legally but not so procedurally?

 

I'm not trying to suggest it's a sure thing, but I am trying to suggest that this is a very, very dangerous route to take. By making it so readily accessible I believe it will result in additional contributions to the already ongoing distortion of young people's minds, the normalisation of the warped Orwellian attempt used by some to try and ban gender pronouns, increased cases of self-diagnosed gender dysphoria by unwitting young children and of course, the self-entitlement that you no longer have to abide by medical practice if you deem it to be offensive. 

Edited 25 July 2017 by The Floyd

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 hour ago, Captain... said:

 

Yes trade will continue to happen, but we will become less competitive. Tariffs will not stop trade, but they put us at a competitive disadvantage with EU countries because they can source products tariff free in the EU, or pay tariffs to buy from us. This is not difficult to understand.

Like wise it is not difficult to understand we have a massive trade deficit with EU countries, we can source those products elsewhere should we have the desire to do so.

 

Buying things from Europe would be less competitive should their items have an import duty for example BMWs, VWs, Audis and Renaults etc. could have a 10% import tax applied, making them less attractive in comparison to US and Japanese cars. We could grow more fruit and veg in greenhouses in the UK or import it from no EU countries instead of getting it from Spain. It may long term increase home grown, home made products which would not be a bad thing IMO.

 

We buy a tonne of stuff from Europe, it would be stupid of them to strike a deal that might make to want us look elsewhere for the same products.

[Captain...]

1 hour ago, Foxin_mad said:

Like wise it is not difficult to understand we have a massive trade deficit with EU countries, we can source those products elsewhere should we have the desire to do so.

 

Buying things from Europe would be less competitive should their items have an import duty for example BMWs, VWs, Audis and Renaults etc. could have a 10% import tax applied, making them less attractive in comparison to US and Japanese cars. We could grow more fruit and veg in greenhouses in the UK or import it from no EU countries instead of getting it from Spain. It may long term increase home grown, home made products which would not be a bad thing IMO.

 

We buy a tonne of stuff from Europe, it would be stupid of them to strike a deal that might make to want us look elsewhere for the same products.

A trade deficit is not a good thing, business is all about sales and if the EU reduces the amount they buy from us, then our gdp will suffer not the EU.

 

You are right import tariffs would make EU goods less attractive but not significantly unless we arrange free trade deals with other countries. Lets look at cars, we currently don't have free trade with the US so the duty on cars is at 10%, the same as it would be with the EU under WTO rules, so it would only be cost effective to buy US made cars if the US made cars are cheaper (including transport costs) than EU made cars, and there would have to be a significant saving to account for the added transport time. (I don't know if they are cheaper to manufacture in the US) There would also have to be the capacity to supply the extra UK roadworthy cars from the US.

 

We could and should grow more produce than we currently do, but we don't have the capacity to supply fruit and veg to the whole country, nor the weather to supply certain fruit and Veg such as oranges or olives. We could source them from non-EU countries, which would also have import duties, but they will be further away and require longer transport times, which is kinda important when trading in perishable goods.

 

Free trade with the EU massively benefits us, and somewhat benefits the EU, losing the UK from the single market will hurt EU trade, but nowhere near as much as it will hurt the UK. That is incontrovertible fact, we can do a number of things to try and limit the impact, but we are running out of time. The only good thing is the import duties are collected by the government so they could become Corbyn's magic money tree to spend on building his socialist utopia.

 

I will end on this point, tariffs are not the death of trade, many countries operate with tariffs and do so successfully, but they have not been part of a free trading bloc for decades, currently around 50% of our trade is with the EU. That is a huge amount to be going to one market place, and to jeopardise that in any way is madness. Short term, medium term, long term we have no idea what the impact will be, but ask any business man whether they think it is a good idea to increase the cost of 50% the goods you purchase and increase the price of 50% of the goods you sell in a competitive market place while your competitors remain unchanged and see what they say.

Edited 25 July 2017 by Captain...

[Alf Bentley]

11 minutes ago, Captain... said:

A trade deficit is not a good thing, business is all about sales and if the EU reduces the amount they buy from us, then our gdp will suffer not the EU.

 

Import tariffs would only make EU cars less attractive if we had free trade deals with other countries, we don't. Lets look at cars, we currently don't have free trade with the US so the duty on cars is at 10%, so it would only be cost effective to buy US made cars if the US made cars are cheaper (including transport costs) than EU made cars, and there would have to be a significant saving to account for the added transport time. 

 

We could and should grow more produce than we currently do, but we don't have the capacity to supply fruit and veg to the whole country, nor the weather to supply certain fruit and Veg such as oranges or olives. We could source them from non-EU countries, which would also have import duties, but they will be further away and require longer transport times, which is kinda important when trading in perishable goods.

 

Free trade with the EU massively benefits us, and somewhat benefits the EU, losing the UK from the single market will hurt EU trade, but nowhere near as much as it will hurt the UK. That is incontrovertible fact, we can do a number of things to try and limit the impact, but we are running out of time. The only good thing is the import duties are collected by the government so they could become Corbyn's magic money tree to spend on building his socialist utopia.

 

I will end on this point, tariffs are not the death of trade, many countries operate with tariffs and do so successfully, but they have not been part of a free trading bloc for decades, currently around 50% of our exports go to the EU. That is a huge amount to be going to one market place, and to jeopardise that in any way is madness. Short term, medium term, long term we have no idea what the impact will be, but ask any business man whether they think it is a good idea to increase the cost of 50% the goods you purchase and increase the price of 50% of the goods you sell in a competitive market place while your competitors remain unchanged and see what they say.

 

Top quality post. 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

4 minutes ago, Captain... said:

A trade deficit is not a good thing, business is all about sales and if the EU reduces the amount they buy from us, then our gdp will suffer not the EU.

 

Import tariffs would only make EU cars less attractive if we had free trade deals with other countries, we don't. Lets look at cars, we currently don't have free trade with the US so the duty on cars is at 10%, so it would only be cost effective to buy US made cars if the US made cars are cheaper (including transport costs) than EU made cars, and there would have to be a significant saving to account for the added transport time. 

 

We could and should grow more produce than we currently do, but we don't have the capacity to supply fruit and veg to the whole country, nor the weather to supply certain fruit and Veg such as oranges or olives. We could source them from non-EU countries, which would also have import duties, but they will be further away and require longer transport times, which is kinda important when trading in perishable goods.

 

Free trade with the EU massively benefits us, and somewhat benefits the EU, losing the UK from the single market will hurt EU trade, but nowhere near as much as it will hurt the UK. That is incontrovertible fact, we can do a number of things to try and limit the impact, but we are running out of time. The only good thing is the import duties are collected by the government so they could become Corbyn's magic money tree to spend on building his socialist utopia.

 

I will end on this point, tariffs are not the death of trade, many countries operate with tariffs and do so successfully, but they have not been part of a free trading bloc for decades, currently around 50% of our exports go to the EU. That is a huge amount to be going to one market place, and to jeopardise that in any way is madness. Short term, medium term, long term we have no idea what the impact will be, but ask any business man whether they think it is a good idea to increase the cost of 50% the goods you purchase and increase the price of 50% of the goods you sell in a competitive market place while your competitors remain unchanged and see what they say.

The EU GDP will suffer if we decide not to buy from them. To be honest if they are awkward and refuse to do a deal many British people will not look favourably on European goods. We do not currently have any deals but who knows what could be put into place, Australia, the US, India and China have already shown a willing to negotiate a free trade deal post Brexit. We could strike a deal with Turkey and import their Tomatoes, Olives and Oranges etc.

 

This is thing its all if buts and maybes no one really knows. I voted remain because I thought it was better for the UK to remain in the EU.

 

That's not to say I cant be proven wrong. The negativity is silly until we know what the deal is, people are just second guessing. I am pretty sure that both sides will do all they can to strike a deal too much is at stake.

[Alf Bentley]

16 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

The EU GDP will suffer if we decide not to buy from them. To be honest if they are awkward and refuse to do a deal many British people will not look favourably on European goods. We do not currently have any deals but who knows what could be put into place, Australia, the US, India and China have already shown a willing to negotiate a free trade deal post Brexit. We could strike a deal with Turkey and import their Tomatoes, Olives and Oranges etc.

 

This is thing its all if buts and maybes no one really knows. I voted remain because I thought it was better for the UK to remain in the EU.

 

That's not to say I cant be proven wrong. The negativity is silly until we know what the deal is, people are just second guessing. I am pretty sure that both sides will do all they can to strike a deal too much is at stake.

 

About 44% of UK exports go to the EU. If those exports become much less competitive due to tariff/non-tariff barriers, it could do serious damage to our economy, which is already weak.

Depending on whether you include exports within the EU, either 8% or 17% of EU exports go to the UK. The EU risks damage, too, but much less damage than we do.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIjdSb7ayk1QIVy7ftCh2EsQePEAAYASAAEgJ-l_D_BwE

 

It might seem like common sense, therefore, for both sides to agree a deal. But the EU27 are in a much stronger position than we are to demand concessions.

Given the risk of other EU nations potentially copying Brexit, it is of existential importance to the future of the EU that Brexit does not give the UK anything like equal terms to those available to EU members. Everything suggests that the EU will be prepared to take a bit of an economic hit from lost trade rather than risk the future of the EU. Also, in most sectors (maybe not financial services & 1-2 other specialist fields) they will find it easier to replace lost UK trade from within the EU than we will from new global trade deals.

 

The US, India and other nations have expressed interest in negotiating trade deals.....but on what terms? Everything from food standards (US) to increased immigration (India) would be on the table for negotiation - and even more than with the EU, they would be in a stronger negotiating position as bigger, faster-growing economies. They would also know that we were desperate to do such deals....so such deals could be on very tough terms.

 

I've no idea how viable it would be to import fruit/veg from Turkey. According to Wikipedia, 95% of Turkish exports to the EU are currently industrial goods. The good news is that the EU-Turkey Customs Union deal doesn't cover agriculture, so they wouldn't have to apply external customs duties and red tape. The bad news is that, even if importing such produce is viable, transport costs will undoubtedly make it a lot more expensive. Imagine importing tomatoes from Turkey to replace those imported from Holland - and Dutch tomatoes would have much cheaper production costs anyway given their intensive farming methods.

 

I agree that a lot of this is unpredictable. A football equivalent: Imagine that LCFC sold Schmeichel, Vardy, Mahrez, Ndidi and Fuchs, and replaced them with Championship-level players. Anyone expressing alarm at how the team might perform would indeed be second-guessing the future and might be wrong, but that alarm would not be silly or unduly negative. We're in a similar situation with Brexit, I think....though I could be wrong, of course.   

 

 

[Captain...]

42 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

To be honest if they are awkward and refuse to do a deal many British people will not look favourably on European goods.

To be fair they aren't the ones saying no deal is better than a bad deal and threatening to walk away with nothing.

 

I do believe that it is possible to leave the EU and be successful with minimal impact to business, but it is not the way we are currently doing it. We've rushed into it with no clear plan based on a referendum full of contradictory ideals. We still want to have our cake and eat it, if we had put a coherent well thought out exit strategy in place for Brexit before the referendum, rather than lies on the side of a bus, then I think there would be a lot less criticism, but at the moment it is a mess and there is one thing that markets hate and it is uncertainty.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

I really, really wouldn't be.

 

Vegetarianism is a mental illness that is anti-humanity. It's only population growth that has made it acceptable. 

Or just a choice. It's more of a mental illness to not be able to see this. I eat meat but recognise that population growth means that we really need to be moving to a diet that is largely vegetarian.

 

2 hours ago, MattP said:

Excellent. Now you've dealt with Corbyn perhaps you can turn your attention to all the wonderful policies being offered by the Tories?

 

2 hours ago, Carl the Llama said:

Not sure why gm keeps getting dropped into comments over the past few pages but as a quick aside if you have a blanket issue with genetic modification then either you don't really understand why you have a problem with it (probably some scary science stuff) or you're very clued up and you really do want the 3rd world to struggle to feed itself, have never kept any pets and have never eaten any high-quality meat nor bought vegetables from the supermarket.  All of these things have benefited from gm in some way shape or form.

For me the issue is the unknown. History shows humanity believing it is solving problems only to cause unintended health problems. Mercury poisoned rivers, lead pipes, diesel use, asbestos etc. Gm tech is impressive but i am concerned that it's been taken up so quickly and any unintended and currently unseen consequences may only  ecome obvious later. Again, it's about choice. Should be clearly labelled and not allowed in school, hospital meals etc. Ultimately gm crops will be used in cheaper foods for the poor who are always the guinea pigs.

 

 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Captain... said:

To be fair they aren't the ones saying no deal is better than a bad deal and threatening to walk away with nothing.

 

I do believe that it is possible to leave the EU and be successful with minimal impact to business, but it is not the way we are currently doing it. We've rushed into it with no clear plan based on a referendum full of contradictory ideals. We still want to have our cake and eat it, if we had put a coherent well thought out exit strategy in place for Brexit before the referendum, rather than lies on the side of a bus, then I think there would be a lot less criticism, but at the moment it is a mess and there is one thing that markets hate and it is uncertainty.

Nail. Head.

It's the fact people have taken a huge risk based on no more than pure faith which bothers me.

[The Floyd]

9 minutes ago, Captain... said:

To be fair they aren't the ones saying no deal is better than a bad deal and threatening to walk away with nothing.

No, but they are the ones threatening to 'punish' the UK and leaking details of supposedly private meetings, which is why the question of leaving with no deal was raised in the first place.

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Excellent. Now you've dealt with Corbyn perhaps you can turn your attention to all the wonderful policies being offered by the Tories?

Not going to be any, we have a government now intent on survival rather than governing - a tragic situation for the country. 

 

Possibly in that position not just because of the awful Tory campaign but also because of the fibs told by the Labour party.

[Guest MattP]

14 minutes ago, Captain... said:

To be fair they aren't the ones saying no deal is better than a bad deal and threatening to walk away with nothing.

 

I do believe that it is possible to leave the EU and be successful with minimal impact to business, but it is not the way we are currently doing it. We've rushed into it with no clear plan based on a referendum full of contradictory ideals. We still want to have our cake and eat it, if we had put a coherent well thought out exit strategy in place for Brexit before the referendum, rather than lies on the side of a bus, then I think there would be a lot less criticism, but at the moment it is a mess and there is one thing that markets hate and it is uncertainty.

In any negotiation you say that, you have to. My hunch is we have no intention of walking away with no deal but we can't let Barnier and Co know that can we?

 

There was a report in the Sunday Times yesterday saying how surprised the EU negotiating team were about how up on the brief our own team are, the reality is none of us know what we have planned.

 

Every single party in Britain aside from the Lib Dems now have a policy of wanting to have our cake and eat it, it's just how much cake we can get.

[Captain...]

2 minutes ago, MattP said:

In any negotiation you say that, you have to. My hunch is we have no intention of walking away with no deal but we can't let Barnier and Co know that can we?

 

There was a report in the Sunday Times yesterday saying how surprised the EU negotiating team were about how up on the brief our own team are, the reality is none of us know what we have planned.

 

Every single party in Britain aside from the Lib Dems now have a policy of wanting to have our cake and eat it, it's just how much cake we can get.

I would rather have chorizo, olive oil and brie then a load of cake if I'm honest...

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Captain... said:

I would rather have chorizo, olive oil and brie then a load of cake if I'm honest...

Tough it's bitter and black pudding now.

[Captain...]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

Tough it's bitter and black pudding now.

I do like black pudding and most ales, I also much prefer English cheese to soft French stuff, a  big slab of Shropshire Blue with pork pie, Branston and a proper scotch egg, mmm delicious, but not every day. Other days I would prefer chorizo fried in Asturian cidre with a bit of manchego cheese, washed down with a nice Rioja.   

 

I assume all you Brexiteers stopped buying European muck months ago to support the UK farmers and manufacturers...

Edited 25 July 2017 by Captain...

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I do like black pudding and most ales, I also much prefer English cheese to soft French stuff, a  big slab of Shropshire Blue with pork pie, Branston and a proper scotch egg, mmm delicious, but not every day. Other days I would prefer chorizo fried in Asturian cidre washed down with a nice Rioja.   

 

I assume all you Brexiteers stopped buying European muck months ago to support the UK farmers and manufacturers...

Not me, I buy what I fancy on a day to day basis. If the deal concludes badly and the EU don't give way, I will boycott everything that comes from that way.

[Guest]

 

24 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not going to be any, we have a government now intent on survival rather than governing - a tragic situation for the country. 

 

Possibly in that position not just because of the awful Tory campaign but also because of the fibs told by the Labour party.

Not worth us scrapping over the 2nd sentence  but yes what you say in the first is pretty depressing. 

[Innovindil]

12 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I do like black pudding and most ales, I also much prefer English cheese to soft French stuff, a  big slab of Shropshire Blue with pork pie, Branston and a proper scotch egg, mmm delicious, but not every day. Other days I would prefer chorizo fried in Asturian cidre with a bit of manchego cheese, washed down with a nice Rioja.   

 

I assume all you Brexiteers stopped buying European muck months ago to support the UK farmers and manufacturers...

Happy to report quite a lot of my foodstuffs come from local farms/butchers tbh. But that's been true long before brexit was even an idea. 

 

Can't wait to get my own place so I can have a stab at growing my own stuff, countryfox got me jealous. 

[Guest MattP]

15 minutes ago, Captain... said:

I do like black pudding and most ales, I also much prefer English cheese to soft French stuff, a  big slab of Shropshire Blue with pork pie, Branston and a proper scotch egg, mmm delicious, but not every day. Other days I would prefer chorizo fried in Asturian cidre with a bit of manchego cheese, washed down with a nice Rioja.   

 

I assume all you Brexiteers stopped buying European muck months ago to support the UK farmers and manufacturers...

Do try to buy British meat and usually always from local butchers, not always possible but like @Innovindil I've been doing that long before Brexit was spoken about. 

[Captain...]

6 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Not me, I buy what I fancy on a day to day basis. If the deal concludes badly and the EU don't give way, I will boycott everything that comes from that way.

That's pretty selfish (unless you think that we will remain in the single market) you have voted to harm international trade and set our producers and manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage yet refuse to support them by buying their produce. Shame on you.