is reaching 4th/5th possible ?

[Area88]

Looking at the fixtures and our current form. Also the fact we kept Mahrez and the team is gelling better and better every week.

 

I would say a high probability of finishing anywhere between 5th, 6th or 7th. 4th means beating Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.

 

Probability of 5th is much higher than 4th. Can we really say we are better than Arsenal right now? No but that doesn't mean we can't outperform them.

 

I think impressively we've taken a Jose Mourinho approach and we start very strong at the back and this gives us much more confidence in our attacks.

 

4th would have been very likely or possible, even higher, if Puel had started the season as manager. Add all those points lost with Craig Shakespeare and who knows... All the points over the table are spread pretty evenly so that would suggest we could have even finished 2nd.

Edited 22 January 2018 by Area88

[LCCFox96]

4th and 5th will be tough - realistically looking at Liverpool or Tottenham who I think with their head start will have too much for us. However, catching Arsenal in 6th I believe is genuinely do-able. Especially as they still have to come to us. 

 

All being said, if I was offered 7th at the start of the season, offered it now or offered it at any point between I'd have snapped your hand off. 

[shen]

1 hour ago, LCCFox96 said:

4th and 5th will be tough - realistically looking at Liverpool or Tottenham who I think with their head start will have too much for us. However, catching Arsenal in 6th I believe is genuinely do-able. Especially as they still have to come to us. 

 

All being said, if I was offered 7th at the start of the season, offered it now or offered it at any point between I'd have snapped your hand off. 

But we never beat Arsenal!

In 23 games in the PL, we've won once... 23 years ago

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Area88 said:

Looking at the fixtures and our current form. Also the fact we kept Mahrez and the team is gelling better and better every week.

 

I would say a high probability of finishing anywhere between 5th, 6th or 7th. 4th means beating Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.

 

Probability of 5th is much higher than 4th. Can we really say we are better than Arsenal right now? No but that doesn't mean we can't outperform them.

 

I think impressively we've taken a Jose Mourinho approach and we start very strong at the back and this gives us much more confidence in our attacks.

 

4th would have been very likely or possible, even higher, if Puel had started the season as manager. Add all those points lost with Craig Shakespeare and who knows... All the points over the table are spread pretty evenly so that would suggest we could have even finished 2nd.

 

Puel lost at home to palace and away at Watford 

 

why does it have to be so binary? Either we are good enough to be top four or so terrible we will go down. 

 

We cannot finish top four.  It’s not possible. We could finish 5th if we take 35 points from 45 (really?) and spurs don’t take 24 points from their last 15 games. (And arsenal 27 which is just about feasible with their Europa league distraction) 

 

look at the maths !!!

[Dan]

On 20/01/2018 at 19:10, Captain... said:

We've already played Liverpool Chelsea and united twice.

 

That means there are only 3 games left we wouldn't be favourites. Arsenal at home, we could do them, Spurs away last game of the season. They will have bottled everything by then and if we need a win to finish ahead of Arsenal they'll roll over.

 

So all being well we will only drop points to Man City. We also know Arsenal will collapse without Sanchez, just look at them today. 6th is definitely on.

We won't be favourites at Everton, although I think that might be worth backing us on that basis because we're a better side than they are.

 

Palace and Burnley away are two real banana skin games.

[FoxFossil]

12 hours ago, Gforce19 said:

Ok , I need to get out more ,

just been looking at this and here are the numbers ,

if we match the form of Man City between now and the end of the season we would therefore take 90% of any remaining points available and therefore finish on 72 points .

Spuds who are currently in 5th , if they maintained their current form and continued until the end of the season taking 60% of available points they would finish on 70 points thus we would finish above them , 

conclusion, they may well take approx 70 points , 

We will not take 90% of remaining points not even in any lunatics wildest dream thus the answer is no we will not finish in the 4th or 5th place .

 

Correct. 8 more wins max plus a few unlikely draws would give us 26 to 28 more points. Max realistic points 60-62. 7th.

[shen]

3 hours ago, nnfox said:

My point is that there are two leagues within the premier league, the top six and then everyone else. When I look at the table I believe whole heartedly that if we turn up, all the teams below us will have to play amazingly well to beat us. There is no team in the league from 8th down that I think we have very little chance against. I firmly believe that we are rightfully at the top of that "other" league and our stats are good against those other teams which is no fluke. Other fans can think what they like about their teams but us and Burnley are 6 points clear of the chasing pack and that is not down to ifs, buts and maybes. It is fact.

 

The next step for us is to start challenging the top 6 and with a little bit more quality and consistency, I see no reason why we can't. Sean Dyche talks a lot about fine margins in the premier league and he is right. If (i know it's an "if") we scored one extra goal in all 9 of our games against top 6 opposition this season then our record wouldn't be 1/2/6 for 5 points, it'd be 3/3/3 for 12 points.  Fine margins indeed, try applying that to Stoke!

 

To put it another way, if Everton, West Ham and Watford added a little bit more quality and consistency to their game, I still think they would be some way short of the top 6, but could challenge us for the 7th place trophy.

I'm not sure I get your point really. Still a lot of if-hypotheses and you say it's a two-tier league, but at the same time it's just fine margins that determine which tier e.g. Burnley or ourselves are in.

I.e. you're saying there's a chasm, but it's not that big of a gap..

Edited 22 January 2018 by shen

[Kitchandro]

We're not going to make up that much of a gap. That's a massive amount of points to make up and we're not an exceptional team.

 

We're the best of a very, very average/bad bunch from 7th downwards, and the teams above us are simply better.

 

For Christ's sake, the modern obsession with statistics is doing my head in. It's common sense, we won't finish any higher than 7th.

[Fox92]

On 1/20/2018 at 19:10, Captain... said:

We've already played Liverpool Chelsea and united twice.

 

That means there are only 3 games left we wouldn't be favourites. Arsenal at home, we could do them, Spurs away last game of the season. They will have bottled everything by then and if we need a win to finish ahead of Arsenal they'll roll over.

 

So all being well we will only drop points to Man City. We also know Arsenal will collapse without Sanchez, just look at them today. 6th is definitely on.

I wish football was that easy. We'll drop points in other games - like we did against Palace at home. You or I wouldn't have predicted them to beat us, especially 0-3.

 

Speaking of Palace, it's a difficult away game as are Burnley, Everton and Spurs.

 

I think Arsenal are beatable at home.

 

I cannot see us making the gap up. It'd take a remarkable dip in form from Arsenal/Spurs which won't happen.

Edited 22 January 2018 by Fox92

[Kitchandro]

2 hours ago, Area88 said:

Looking at the fixtures and our current form. Also the fact we kept Mahrez and the team is gelling better and better every week.

 

I would say a high probability of finishing anywhere between 5th, 6th or 7th. 4th means beating Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham.

 

Probability of 5th is much higher than 4th. Can we really say we are better than Arsenal right now? No but that doesn't mean we can't outperform them.

 

I think impressively we've taken a Jose Mourinho approach and we start very strong at the back and this gives us much more confidence in our attacks.

 

4th would have been very likely or possible, even higher, if Puel had started the season as manager. Add all those points lost with Craig Shakespeare and who knows... All the points over the table are spread pretty evenly so that would suggest we could have even finished 2nd.

This is madness. Firstly, the way Mourinho has got Man Utd playing isn't exactly impressive. I'm fed up of people saying negative football is impressive, or effective. Mourinho has benefited from having the best players throughout his career. We don't have that luxury and therefore we need to be positive to be more consistent.

 

People are deluding themselves again, we win a couple of games against crap sides and everyone thinks we're something special. We're not, we're average, most teams in this league are average. But we're talking about finishing above teams that are better than us and have a large head start. It's totally not going to happen.

 

Puel is not a genius or a miracle worker, he's a run of the mill coach without the tactical nous to make a club like ours overperform.

 

There are glimpses of good performances, like Chelsea last week or Tottenham in the first half and Southampton away. But Puel doesn't have the self-belief to put the same tactics into practice consistently, whcih is why we've laboured against teams like Palace and Watford (even on Saturday we were just ok and they squandered a great chance at 1-0).

 

The idea of us finishing 4th in any full season under him is totally crazy - and not because this league is particularly great at the moment, but because he isn't a special manager.

Edited 22 January 2018 by Kitchandro

[LCCFox96]

1 hour ago, shen said:

But we never beat Arsenal!

In 23 games in the PL, we've won once... 23 years ago

 

True but no time like the present to amend that record. We've been unlucky on multiple occasions since we came back up:

 

1-1 at home in 14/15 - could easily have knicked it - Ulloa had a great chance to win it iirc.

2-1 away in 14/15 - We were playing very well having gone 2 down. Kramaric got one back and could easily have gone on for a point or maybe all 3.

2-1 away in 15/16 - But for Simpson red card and Wasilewski going rogue last minute the win was very realistic (helped us in the long run mind)

0-0 at home in 16/17 - Not great but hardly a mile away from a win

1-0 away in 16/17 - Late OG having played decent

4-3 away this season - Could have had all 3 points but for a late meltdown in part due to questionable subs.

 

Arsenal are very beatable but like you say always seem to dig something out against us. Must be the only team we haven't beaten since coming back up.

 

 

[Fox92]

13 minutes ago, Kitchandro said:

This is madness. Firstly, the way Mourinho has got Man Utd playing isn't exactly impressive. I'm fed up of people saying negative football is impressive, or effective. Mourinho has benefited from having the best players throughout his career. We don't have that luxury and therefore we need to be positive to be more consistent.

 

People are deluding themselves again, we win a couple of games against crap sides and everyone thinks we're something special. We're not, we're average, most teams in this league are average. But we're talking about finishing above teams that are better than us and have a large head start. It's totally not going to happen.

 

Puel is not a genius or a miracle worker, he's a run of the mill coach without the tactical nous to make a club like ours overperform.

 

There are glimpses of good performances, like Chelsea last week or Tottenham in the first half and Southampton away. But Puel doesn't have the self-belief to put the same tactics into practice consistently, whcih is why we've laboured against teams like Palace and Watford (even on Saturday we were just ok and they squandered a great chance at 1-0).

 

The idea of us finishing 4th in any full season under him is totally crazy - and not because this league is particularly great at the moment, but because he isn't a special manager.

It's nearly impossible to finish 4th for a club like us. Generally, it's a closed off gap unless you've loads of money to become a top four team like Man City.

 

Most sides like us aren't consistent enough to finish top 4. Even when Everton finished 4th under Moyes, they lost 10+ games. As did Spurs when they finished 4th under Redknapp.

 

There was a time when Aston Villa were going for it but O'Neill could never quite get them there.

Edited 22 January 2018 by Fox92

[Area88]

Everyone is assuming the teams above won't drop points. Look at their fixture lists and look at the amount of European games they have to play. They also have to play each other which will be tough on their squads. No one is taking account of a depleted squad in terms of energy, possible injuries or even the pressure of finishing in a certain position  or a domestic cup.

 

If Leicester are positive in their mentality anything can happen as long they believe in themselves. it was belief that won us the title 2 seasons ago.

 

Puel is a credible and great manager. He has done a lot of miracles already including revitalising Mahrez, improving team communication and performances. Building a very strong, impressive back 4. At the beginning of the season, we did not have this at all and we looked vulnerable and defensively poor. Puel is the only key difference from when Shakespeare was in charge so he deserves all the credit along with the players that are receptive to him.

 

Puel was the one that unleashed Demarai Gray and that speaks for itself. Almost instant returns with goals, assists and counter attacking football since he can run past anybody.

 

Hope that helps people!!

[shen]

46 minutes ago, LCCFox96 said:

 

True but no time like the present to amend that record. We've been unlucky on multiple occasions since we came back up:

 

1-1 at home in 14/15 - could easily have knicked it - Ulloa had a great chance to win it iirc.

2-1 away in 14/15 - We were playing very well having gone 2 down. Kramaric got one back and could easily have gone on for a point or maybe all 3.

2-1 away in 15/16 - But for Simpson red card and Wasilewski going rogue last minute the win was very realistic (helped us in the long run mind)

0-0 at home in 16/17 - Not great but hardly a mile away from a win

1-0 away in 16/17 - Late OG having played decent

4-3 away this season - Could have had all 3 points but for a late meltdown in part due to questionable subs.

 

Arsenal are very beatable but like you say always seem to dig something out against us. Must be the only team we haven't beaten since coming back up.

 

 

Yeah, the record will inevitably fall. You just think that Arsenal will have the mental edge with that record.

And I believe we haven't beaten Bournemouth either since promotion.

[ARM1968]

NO - FUCHING - CHANCE

 

And I’m an eternal optimist. 

[shen]

2 minutes ago, Area88 said:

If Leicester are positive in their mentality anything can happen as long they believe in themselves. it was belief that won us the title 2 seasons ago.

My guess is, it is a damn sight more motivating to sit at the top of the table than chasing a 6th place.

It truly was an incredible feat and no doubt that spurred on the belief.

But making up an 11-13 point gap in 14 games? This is not a relegation scrap where teams around will logically drop plenty of points.

[fazzyfox]

At the moment we seem to be in our own mini league with Burnley and Everton to be 7th which is good, good to have something to focus on, good to have "rivals" and to look out for their results and we need to keep this going.  Above us the big six have European fixtures to play and all come crunch time will be feeling the pressure and the expectation of their boards to make the top four, something we don't really have. If we keep on with our "aim for 7th" and just avoid silly results or silly runs of results then maybe just maybe an Arsenal or Bottle'm Hotspurs will become catchable - how about that last match of the season at Wembley vs Spurs being a decider for 6th or something! Remember, the top six play against each other some weeks so there will be opportunities to make up some ground on them as they can't all get three points every match day. Keep doing what we're doing, don't feel any pressure, string solid consistent results together and benefit from having less matches and travel and you never know. The pressure and expectation is all on them, not us.

[Muzzy_no7]

solidify 7th and go all out for the F.A Cup.

[Captain...]

2 hours ago, Fox92 said:

I wish football was that easy. We'll drop points in other games - like we did against Palace at home. You or I wouldn't have predicted them to beat us, especially 0-3.

 

Speaking of Palace, it's a difficult away game as are Burnley, Everton and Spurs.

 

I think Arsenal are beatable at home.

 

2 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

We won't be favourites at Everton, although I think that might be worth backing us on that basis because we're a better side than they are.

 

Palace and Burnley away are two real banana skin games.

It wasn't an entirely serious post, of course we will drop points where we wouldn't expect to, I also think we could give one of the top 6 a run for their money, Sanchez leaving Arsenal could have an over all destabilising effect, or galvanise them especially if they sign Aubameyang & Mkhitaryan. Liverpool have lost Coutinho and Chelsea have been struggling recently and Conte isn't happy. The pressure is growing on Spurs to win something, with Real Madrid coming in for Kane in the summer adding more pressure and we know they love a good bottle job. Obviously this is very unlikely, we would need to be near perfect for the rest of the season, but stranger things have happened. Anyway, I won't be putting any money on it, but I will be hoping.

[Babylon]

6 hours ago, Kitchandro said:

Puel is not a genius or a miracle worker, he's a run of the mill coach without the tactical nous to make a club like ours overperform.

 

There are glimpses of good performances, like Chelsea last week or Tottenham in the first half and Southampton away. But Puel doesn't have the self-belief to put the same tactics into practice consistently, whcih is why we've laboured against teams like Palace and Watford (even on Saturday we were just ok and they squandered a great chance at 1-0).

 

Whilst I agree we aren't getting 4th, or 5th or 6th. Your constant jibes at him are a joke, you were oh so glad to rip him a new one when we lost a few games over a busy period, declaring anything good before that as new manager bounce. Now we're just 7th because everyone is shit and not because of him or seemingly anything he's done.

 

What's he been here for, 15 games? In that time we've got the same points as Spurs and one less than Arsenal. If that's not over performing, then I don't know what is.

 

You can give people praise you know, you don't have to find fault in everything in an attempt to prove your original ideas of him correct, when clearly he's proving you very very wrong.

 

As for not putting the same tactics into practice. You don't seem to take into account there is another team on the pitch who have a say in matters. Where teams give us the space to play, it's no coincidence we perform better. We've had three teams on the trot now at home who are surrendering possession and just sitting back and waiting for us to make a mistake and countering (sound familiar).

 

We don't have the players of a Man City, Liverpool, Spurs who make those games a bit easier to overcome, we have to learn how to dispatch them easier and how to play against those teams, we're doing that but it's going to be hard work. We might have to buy some different types of players to do it, with the technical ability to pass it around teams and not just blood and guts footballer like Shinji.

Edited 22 January 2018 by Babylon

[smr]

Edited 22 January 2018 by smr

[Leeds Fox]

3 hours ago, Dan LCFC said:

We won't be favourites at Everton, although I think that might be worth backing us on that basis because we're a better side than they are.

 

Palace and Burnley away are two real banana skin games.

 

We are favourites at Everton. 

[Area88]

2 hours ago, Muzzy_no7 said:

solidify 7th and go all out for the F.A Cup.

While an FA cup win would be nice and it would be great to see Leicester in the Community Shield, lol.

 

European football will help Leicester keep attracting quality signings. Is league position more attractive than trophies? I'm not sure. 

[Leicester_Loyal]

No.

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, Area88 said:

While an FA cup win would be nice and it would be great to see Leicester in the Community Shield, lol.

 

European football will help Leicester keep attracting quality signings. Is league position more attractive than trophies? I'm not sure. 

the FA cup would deliver European football (and without the preseason qualification starting late july that 7th would bring)