LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 Apologies if mentioned anywhere else, we have made a decent start to the season but our expected goals ratio worries me. Big improvements needed. Here's my view: https://curnockftbl.wordpress.com/2018/09/07/expected-goals-think-again/
gw_leics772 Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 7 minutes ago, 80's fox said: Apologies if mentioned anywhere else, we have made a decent start to the season but our expected goals ratio worries me. Big improvements needed. Here's my view: https://curnockftbl.wordpress.com/2018/09/07/expected-goals-think-again/ Or is it a positive because if you were top.of the league on expected goals but mid table for real, you are undoubtedly failing. WE however are punching above our weight but from the games I get the feeling we will click indue course and get better. WE are currently doing better than we should. I firmly believe this, HOWEVER, the last time anything like this happened we went top of the league playing shit under Peter Taylor, then when we started getting the results we deserved rather than starting to play better, we got relegated and entered the darkest 10 years in the history of our club. Nothing would surprise me with our club but taking into account what I see on the pitch, I'm optimistic
Izzy Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 How on earth did we manage in the old days before we had to worry about expected goal ratio's?
LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Author Posted 7 September 2018 6 minutes ago, Poznan34 said: Too early to think about xG imo Whilst I agree, it is another way to see how we are performing. Yes we are dominating games more and playing a style that is more sustainable. However, if you've watched our games, it is the amount and quality of chances that worries me, even if it is early days
LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Author Posted 7 September 2018 4 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said: How on earth did we manage in the old days before we had to worry about expected goal ratio's? Same before we knew what percentage of the ball you have and all the other stats. That's just the way it is now.
Izzy Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 17 minutes ago, 80's fox said: Apologies if mentioned anywhere else, we have made a decent start to the season but our expected goals ratio worries me. Big improvements needed. Here's my view: https://curnockftbl.wordpress.com/2018/09/07/expected-goals-think-again/ 1 minute ago, 80's fox said: Whilst I agree, it is another way to see how we are performing. Yes we are dominating games more and playing a style that is more sustainable. However, if you've watched our games, it is the amount and quality of chances that worries me, even if it is early days Stop worrying dude. You're worrying me.
Lambert09 Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 As with all statistics it depends how you interpret them. Expected goals does not take the in game situation into account. If your team is winning a game your aim is often to preserve a lead rather than to create more opportunities. Games against the big sides naturally smaller sides aren’t focused on creating chances. Halfway through a season would give you some decent reading, not 4 games in.
Phube Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 According to xG Burnley were over performing all season... but still managed to stay in 7th.
Guest Col city fan Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 19 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said: How on earth did we manage in the old days before we had to worry about expected goal ratio's? We didn’t have to worry? We had Ormondroyd and Gee!
LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Author Posted 7 September 2018 21 minutes ago, Lambert09 said: As with all statistics it depends how you interpret them. Expected goals does not take the in game situation into account. If your team is winning a game your aim is often to preserve a lead rather than to create more opportunities. Games against the big sides naturally smaller sides aren’t focused on creating chances. Halfway through a season would give you some decent reading, not 4 games in. I'm not sure you fully understand what expected goals is. This will explain it for you https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431
LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Author Posted 7 September 2018 29 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said: Stop worrying dude. You're worrying me. Don't worry about me worrying. Omg! I think it's contagious
Dan Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 I do think xG has a place in the game but it's only an indicator and it's very Spurs/Arsenal to try and one-up people over it. I do however happen to agree that we haven't created anywhere near enough good chances in the opening few games, for all of our decent play. I do think our biggest problem is that we allow teams to settle.
Izzy Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 9 minutes ago, 80's fox said: This will explain it for you https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431 Jeez my head hurts. Sorry, but what a load of old pony
Tielemans63 Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 48 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said: How on earth did we manage in the old days before we had to worry about expected goal ratio's? We relied on actual goal ratios after the actual game.
foxes_rule1978 Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 Aren’t these the statistics the spurs fans worry about while we just get on with actual figures
Lambert09 Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 52 minutes ago, 80's fox said: I'm not sure you fully understand what expected goals is. This will explain it for you https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431 No I get it. But my point still stands. As an example, if a game is 0-0 but one team is happy to take a point they may not be trying to create goal scoring opportunities and will happily try and absorb some pressure which would allow the other side more attempts to create goal scoring opportunities. Which they would be scored on. But if that side conceded in the first 10 minutes, the rest of the game they would have a different approach and would be attempting to create chances, whilst the other team now with a lead might be more defensive and happy to try and absorb pressure. How many times have we been against a side that doesn’t try to score and is happy to just limit us but as soon as we get one suddenly spring to action and start attempting to actually score? My point being a team facing united and Liverpool and having a 2 goal lead against a side like wolves, is bound to create less chances. Against wolves we didn’t need another goal so you can understand why we wouldn’t be creating the goal scoring chances you get good scores for in this measurement. Yes we rode our luck at times but this stat doesn’t tell the full story for teams abilities.
LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Author Posted 7 September 2018 12 minutes ago, Lambert09 said: No I get it. But my point still stands. As an example, if a game is 0-0 but one team is happy to take a point they may not be trying to create goal scoring opportunities and will happily try and absorb some pressure which would allow the other side more attempts to create goal scoring opportunities. Which they would be scored on. But if that side conceded in the first 10 minutes, the rest of the game they would have a different approach and would be attempting to create chances, whilst the other team now with a lead might be more defensive and happy to try and absorb pressure. How many times have we been against a side that doesn’t try to score and is happy to just limit us but as soon as we get one suddenly spring to action and start attempting to actually score? My point being a team facing united and Liverpool and having a 2 goal lead against a side like wolves, is bound to create less chances. Against wolves we didn’t need another goal so you can understand why we wouldn’t be creating the goal scoring chances you get good scores for in this measurement. Yes we rode our luck at times but this stat doesn’t tell the full story for teams abilities. Okay I get your point. However our xG against Wolves was 0.20, however you want to portray it, we was fortunate.
foxfanazer Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 Don’t worry lads. I expect us to score more
Nalis Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 I find it more of a useful tool for self assessment rather than using it a tool for claiming to deserve a win. For example, if we score 1 and xG is 2.5, our strikers should be doing better. If our xG is less than 1, we should be creating more.
Stadt Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 Everybody knows that the team that wins a game doesn't always deserve it, expected goals quantifies that and (some) people hate it
LCFC hub Posted 7 September 2018 Author Posted 7 September 2018 11 minutes ago, Nalis said: I find it more of a useful tool for self assessment rather than using it a tool for claiming to deserve a win. For example, if we score 1 and xG is 2.5, our strikers should be doing better. If our xG is less than 1, we should be creating more. Hence what my article is referring to.
stripeyfox Posted 7 September 2018 Posted 7 September 2018 14 minutes ago, Stadt said: Everybody knows that the team that wins a game doesn't always deserve it, expected goals quantifies that and (some) people hate it Yeah, it makes Spurs fans feel better when they lose
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