What's in the news?

[Nick]

2 hours ago, FIF said:

 

We must live in an alternate universe Buce as apart from an odd post too many conversing on the topic of Cambiasso or Mahrez, I've never really understood what I've been doing wrong. However, I have almost 2 years worth of suspensions in total and this annoying post limit that drives me crazy. 

 

Edit: SL will probably come on here now and tell me but he's on ignore. 

So if you are so keen on ignoring someone and they make no effort to comment on anything you write in weeks that’s not directed at them, why talk about them still in your posts while banging on about how you just don’t understand why you keep getting in to trouble?

 

It’s like Pavlovian Conditioning just simply isn’t working because you just can’t help yourself! You know if you do it, you get into trouble and then you do it and then say you don’t know how you keep getting in to trouble...

 

? 

 

 

[Buce]

Labour faces ‘mass challenge’ over Brexit policy

Thousands of members demand second referendum as poll reveals party’s share of vote would plunge if it backed exit deal

 

Thousands of Labour members have demanded their party oppose Theresa May’s Brexit deal and back a second referendum over EU membership. The call comes before a key party gathering which will be held amid warnings that some are already ending their membership over the issue.

The pressure emerges as the biggest Brexit poll conducted since the referendum suggests support for Labour would fall significantly should it back or allow its MPs to back a Brexit agreement. More than 5,000 Labour members and supporters have contacted the party before its policy meeting of senior figures this week.

Labour’s national policy forum, which includes trade union bosses, senior party officials and shadow cabinet ministers, meets on Wednesday. Officials will offer testimony that local members are quitting over the party’s refusal

 

One submission, from the chair of Devizes Labour party, warns that members are resigning and threatening to resign “because of Labour’s reluctance to take a more proactive role in the campaign to force a people’s vote on this issue”. She warns: “If Labour now fails us on this there is likely to be a mass exodus of the activists we need to fight for Labour in nearby winnable constituencies.”

Activists point to the biggest ever Brexit poll, which shows that Labour’s support would collapse at the next election if it eventually backed a Brexit deal or handed its MPs freedom to vote on such a deal. The YouGov poll of 25,000 voters for the People’s Vote campaign found that Labour’s support would then slump to 26% of the vote – lower than the 27.6% secured by Michael Foot in the party’s disastrous 1983 election. Labour is currently committed to voting against May’s deal, but has stopped short of opposing Brexit under different terms.

The poll, conducted over the Christmas break, suggested there was a majority in favour of a second referendum and against Brexit. Voters would prefer that they, rather than MPs, are given the final say by 53% to 47%, excluding those who said they did not know. It found that 54% back staying in the EU, while 46% back leaving, excluding those who did not know.

A Labour spokesperson said: “As unanimously agreed at conference, if Theresa May’s botched Brexit deal is voted down in parliament then a general election should be called. In line with the policy agreed at conference, if the Conservatives block a general election then we will keep all options on the table, including the option of campaigning for a public vote.”

There is huge pressure on Jeremy Corbyn and the PM as MPs prepare to return after the Christmas break, with the crucial vote on May’s deal scheduled for a week on Tuesday. Some insiders are already expecting a further delay to the vote. Under one plan, MPs would pass an amendment suggesting the deal will only pass with further legal guarantees from the EU about the so-called “Irish backstop” – which would keep the Irish border open but could tether Britain to the EU’s customs union. It comes after a concerted push from some cabinet ministers to show Brussels what sort of compromise would be required to secure parliamentary support. Downing Street sources insisted last night that the vote on the Brexit deal would go ahead next week.

It has also emerged that Tory party members are favouring leading Brexiters as their preferred candidates to replace May. Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis are top of the party’s grassroots list. The next leader is likely to take the lead role in negotiating Britain’s long-term trading relationship with the EU.

 

The cluster of Brexiters at the top of members’ wishlist is the latest sign of pressure May faces from the right. After May pledged not to fight the next election as leader, Tory members were asked to name their preferred successor by the Party Members Project, run by Queen Mary University, London, and Sussex University.

Johnson, who has been a leading critic of May’s deal since quitting as foreign secretary, topped the poll with 20%. Rees-Mogg, the leader of the European Research Group of pro-Brexit MPs, trailed in second on 15%, while Davis, who quit as Brexit secretary last year, scored 8%. However, 12% said they did not know who should be the next leader, so the field could yet open up should May manage to hold on for some time and new figures emerge as contenders.

Worryingly for Remain supporters, home secretary Sajid Javid was the only figure who originally backed staying in the EU, among the top five names in the members’ wishlist.

Meanwhile, May has warned MPs of the risks they are taking with democracy and the livelihoods of their constituents by seeking either a second referendum or “their particular vision” of Brexit.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, the PM was also critical of Labour’s approach under Corbyn, saying it was based on a “cynical tissue of incoherence, designed to avoid difficult decisions”.

In a message that appeared aimed at winning opposition support for her deal, she said that “MPs of every party will face the same question when the division bell rings. It is a question of profound significance for our democracy and for our constituents.

“The only way to both honour the result of the referendum and protect jobs and security is by backing the deal that is on the table.”

[RODNEY FERNIO]

9 minutes ago, Buce said:

Labour faces ‘mass challenge’ over Brexit policy

Thousands of members demand second referendum as poll reveals party’s share of vote would plunge if it backed exit deal

 

Thousands of Labour members have demanded their party oppose Theresa May’s Brexit deal and back a second referendum over EU membership. The call comes before a key party gathering which will be held amid warnings that some are already ending their membership over the issue.

The pressure emerges as the biggest Brexit poll conducted since the referendum suggests support for Labour would fall significantly should it back or allow its MPs to back a Brexit agreement. More than 5,000 Labour members and supporters have contacted the party before its policy meeting of senior figures this week.

Labour’s national policy forum, which includes trade union bosses, senior party officials and shadow cabinet ministers, meets on Wednesday. Officials will offer testimony that local members are quitting over the party’s refusal

 

One submission, from the chair of Devizes Labour party, warns that members are resigning and threatening to resign “because of Labour’s reluctance to take a more proactive role in the campaign to force a people’s vote on this issue”. She warns: “If Labour now fails us on this there is likely to be a mass exodus of the activists we need to fight for Labour in nearby winnable constituencies.”

Activists point to the biggest ever Brexit poll, which shows that Labour’s support would collapse at the next election if it eventually backed a Brexit deal or handed its MPs freedom to vote on such a deal. The YouGov poll of 25,000 voters for the People’s Vote campaign found that Labour’s support would then slump to 26% of the vote – lower than the 27.6% secured by Michael Foot in the party’s disastrous 1983 election. Labour is currently committed to voting against May’s deal, but has stopped short of opposing Brexit under different terms.

The poll, conducted over the Christmas break, suggested there was a majority in favour of a second referendum and against Brexit. Voters would prefer that they, rather than MPs, are given the final say by 53% to 47%, excluding those who said they did not know. It found that 54% back staying in the EU, while 46% back leaving, excluding those who did not know.

A Labour spokesperson said: “As unanimously agreed at conference, if Theresa May’s botched Brexit deal is voted down in parliament then a general election should be called. In line with the policy agreed at conference, if the Conservatives block a general election then we will keep all options on the table, including the option of campaigning for a public vote.”

There is huge pressure on Jeremy Corbyn and the PM as MPs prepare to return after the Christmas break, with the crucial vote on May’s deal scheduled for a week on Tuesday. Some insiders are already expecting a further delay to the vote. Under one plan, MPs would pass an amendment suggesting the deal will only pass with further legal guarantees from the EU about the so-called “Irish backstop” – which would keep the Irish border open but could tether Britain to the EU’s customs union. It comes after a concerted push from some cabinet ministers to show Brussels what sort of compromise would be required to secure parliamentary support. Downing Street sources insisted last night that the vote on the Brexit deal would go ahead next week.

It has also emerged that Tory party members are favouring leading Brexiters as their preferred candidates to replace May. Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis are top of the party’s grassroots list. The next leader is likely to take the lead role in negotiating Britain’s long-term trading relationship with the EU.

 

The cluster of Brexiters at the top of members’ wishlist is the latest sign of pressure May faces from the right. After May pledged not to fight the next election as leader, Tory members were asked to name their preferred successor by the Party Members Project, run by Queen Mary University, London, and Sussex University.

Johnson, who has been a leading critic of May’s deal since quitting as foreign secretary, topped the poll with 20%. Rees-Mogg, the leader of the European Research Group of pro-Brexit MPs, trailed in second on 15%, while Davis, who quit as Brexit secretary last year, scored 8%. However, 12% said they did not know who should be the next leader, so the field could yet open up should May manage to hold on for some time and new figures emerge as contenders.

Worryingly for Remain supporters, home secretary Sajid Javid was the only figure who originally backed staying in the EU, among the top five names in the members’ wishlist.

Meanwhile, May has warned MPs of the risks they are taking with democracy and the livelihoods of their constituents by seeking either a second referendum or “their particular vision” of Brexit.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, the PM was also critical of Labour’s approach under Corbyn, saying it was based on a “cynical tissue of incoherence, designed to avoid difficult decisions”.

In a message that appeared aimed at winning opposition support for her deal, she said that “MPs of every party will face the same question when the division bell rings. It is a question of profound significance for our democracy and for our constituents.

“The only way to both honour the result of the referendum and protect jobs and security is by backing the deal that is on the table.”

Tossers

[Buce]

If Corbyn backs Brexit, he faces electoral catastrophe

The biggest Brexit survey yet shows Remain ahead – and Labour losing by a landslide in a general election if it does not oppose leaving the EU

 

I have seldom seen a poll on a subject dividing the nation for which the lessons are so clear. The biggest survey yet conducted on Brexit shows that Remain would comfortably win a referendum held today – and that Labour would crash to a landslide election defeat if it helped Brexit go ahead.

YouGov questioned more than 25,000 people between 21 December and last Friday. It tested two referendum scenarios. If the choice is Remain versus the government’s withdrawal agreement, Remain leads by 26 points: 63% to 37%. If the choice is Remain versus leaving the EU without a deal, Remain wins by 16 points: 58% to 42%.

The difference is explained by the views of those who voted Leave in 2016. Many of them want a clean break with Brussels, but back away from an agreement that fails to redeem the promise in 2016 to “take back control”. Among all voters, only 22% support the government’s deal. Among Leave voters the figure is not much higher: 28%.

 

The larger point is that the nature of the choice has changed since 2016 – 52% voted Leave when it was a general aspiration with little apparent downside. Today support for Brexit is significantly lower when Leave is more clearly defined.

This pattern is familiar to referendums in different countries: many people support the broad idea of change, but back away when the details are laid out. They want “change”, but not “this change”.

That is clearly the case today: 80% of people who voted Leave two years ago still say they want Brexit to go ahead; but the figure falls to 69% if the choice is a “no deal” Brexit, and only 55% if the referendum offers the withdrawal agreement. The rest say they don’t know, or switch to Remain. (The respective loyalty rates on the other side – Remain voters in 2016 who would stick with Remain today – are significantly higher.)

In short, the electorate is increasingly polarised between a growing majority that wants the UK to stay in the EU and a much smaller, but still significant, segment of the electorate that wants a hard, “no deal” Brexit. There is little public appetite for compromise between these two positions.

 

This polarisation poses acute problems for Jeremy Corbyn as well as Theresa May. The Labour leader fears that if his party backs a public vote and then campaigns for a Remain victory he will alienate Leave voters in Labour’s heartlands.

YouGov’s figures suggest that, far from boosting Labour’s support, Corbyn’s approach could lead to electoral catastrophe.

The conventional voting intention question produces a six-point Conservative lead (40% to 34%). This is bad enough for an opposition that ought to be reaping electoral dividends at a time when the government is in crisis.

However, when voters are asked how they would vote if Labour failed to resist Brexit, the Conservatives open up a 17-point lead (43% to 26%). That would be an even worse result than in Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in 1983, when Labour slumped to 209 seats, its worst result since the 1930s.

The key reason for this is that, if Labour is seen to facilitate Brexit in any form, YouGov’s results indicate that the party would be deserted by millions of Remain voters – without gaining any extra support from Leave voters.

Thus Labour risks losing Remain seats where the party did well in 2017 – famously Kensington and Canterbury, but also a host of other constituencies in and around London, and others with a large student population – while failing to recoup any of the ground it lost in the party’s traditional heartlands.

In 2016 Labour voters divided two to one in favour of staying in the EU. Today Labour voters divide 83% to 17% if the choice is Remain versus the Withdrawal Agreement, and 80% to 20% in a Remain versus “no deal” contest. There are huge and obvious risks in being seen to thwart such huge majorities – either by resisting a referendum or, if one is held, failing to campaign against Brexit.

 

Peter Kellner is the former president of YouGov.

[Buce]

21 minutes ago, RODNEY FERNIO said:

Tossers

 

... and right on cue, the old, white xenophobic section of the electorate weighs into the debate with its familiar eloquence.

Edited 6 January 2019 by Buce

[RODNEY FERNIO]

29 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

... and right on cue, the old, white xenophobic section of the electorate weighs into the debate with its familiar eloquence.

Oldish, white but certainly not xenophobic and also do not trust a single word Corbyn and his cronies say and neither should you.

[Buce]

11 minutes ago, RODNEY FERNIO said:

Oldish, white but certainly not xenophobic and also do not trust a single word Corbyn and his cronies say and neither should you.

 

Fair enough.

 

Maybe the misunderstanding might encourage you to respond with more than a single word of abuse next time there is an article that isn't about Corbyn or his cronies.

[Kopfkino]

Are we really supposed to believe that support for Labour, driven by strong concerns over inequality, fairness, redistribution, and austerity will evaporate just because they won't stop Brexit. I suspect asking people directly how they'd vote if Labour didn't resist Brexit and how they'd actually vote on election day with multiple issues facing them, and most likely after Brexit has happened, are quite different. One is a nonsense hypothetical and the other would be a multiple-choice reality.

[Kopfkino]

Ahaha, surely they wouldn't lie. Surely not? Turns out they couldn't even match the Countryside Alliance march.

 

A “historic” march in favour of a second Brexit referendum was attended by just a third of the number that its organisers claimed, according to an official estimate.

A debriefing document prepared by the Greater London Authority put the number of attendees at October's People’s Vote rally at 250,000 - significantly below the campaign group's claim that they were joined by more than 700,000 people.

[breadandcheese]

1 hour ago, Kopfkino said:

Are we really supposed to believe that support for Labour, driven by strong concerns over inequality, fairness, redistribution, and austerity will evaporate just because they won't stop Brexit. I suspect asking people directly how they'd vote if Labour didn't resist Brexit and how they'd actually vote on election day with multiple issues facing them, and most likely after Brexit has happened, are quite different. One is a nonsense hypothetical and the other would be a multiple-choice reality.

Isn't the issue more that a few percentage swing of voters having a disproportionate impact when translated into seats in the Commons?

[RODNEY FERNIO]

24 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Ahaha, surely they wouldn't lie. Surely not? Turns out they couldn't even match the Countryside Alliance march.

 

A “historic” march in favour of a second Brexit referendum was attended by just a third of the number that its organisers claimed, according to an official estimate.

A debriefing document prepared by the Greater London Authority put the number of attendees at October's People’s Vote rally at 250,000 - significantly below the campaign group's claim that they were joined by more than 700,000 people.

Corbyn is a pathological liar.

[Kopfkino]

18 minutes ago, breadandcheese said:

Isn't the issue more that a few percentage swing of voters having a disproportionate impact when translated into seats in the Commons?

 

But my point was very few people are going to decided against voting Labour based on them not blocking Brexit post 29th March because the issues people vote Labour are as such/to get rid of the Conservatives. Besides, any loss that there is from not blocking Labour won't be greater than the swing to the Conservatives from blocking Brexit. The polling makes people say something they wouldn't action on election day imo.

[Buce]

4 minutes ago, RODNEY FERNIO said:

Corbyn is a pathological liar.

 

Do you actually read posts before you reply to them?

 

It was nothing to do with Corbyn.

[Mike Oxlong]

5 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Do you actually read posts before you reply to them?

 

It was nothing to do with Corbyn.

Agreed, I actually think that we should prioritise the cup too  

[RODNEY FERNIO]

6 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Do you actually read posts before you reply to them?

 

It was nothing to do with Corbyn.

Might be an idea if you fully read your own posts, before putting them on the forum,  if you think they are nothing to do with Corbyn.

[Buce]

1 minute ago, RODNEY FERNIO said:

Might be an idea if you fully read your own posts, before putting them on the forum,  if you think they are nothing to do with Corbyn.

 

Explain how this has anything to do with Corbyn:

 

42 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Ahaha, surely they wouldn't lie. Surely not? Turns out they couldn't even match the Countryside Alliance march.

 

A “historic” march in favour of a second Brexit referendum was attended by just a third of the number that its organisers claimed, according to an official estimate.

A debriefing document prepared by the Greater London Authority put the number of attendees at October's People’s Vote rally at 250,000 - significantly below the campaign group's claim that they were joined by more than 700,000 people.

 

[bovril]

2 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Agreed, I actually think that we should prioritise the cup too  

That's not a phunny picture. 

[Buce]

5 minutes ago, bovril said:

That's not a phunny picture. 

 

Racist.

[Guest MattP]

Imagine being 6 pts behind this current mob.

 

 

[theessexfox]

24 minutes ago, RODNEY FERNIO said:

Might be an idea if you fully read your own posts, before putting them on the forum,  if you think they are nothing to do with Corbyn.

Corbyn had nothing to do with a march for a second referendum given he is explicitly rejecting calls for a second referendum.

[Alf Bentley]

4 hours ago, Buce said:

Labour faces ‘mass challenge’ over Brexit policy

Thousands of members demand second referendum as poll reveals party’s share of vote would plunge if it backed exit deal

 

 

3 hours ago, Buce said:

If Corbyn backs Brexit, he faces electoral catastrophe

The biggest Brexit survey yet shows Remain ahead – and Labour losing by a landslide in a general election if it does not oppose leaving the EU

 

 

If you saw Jon Ashworth on Marr this morning, you wouldn't have been encouraged. When pressed on whether Labour would support a second referendum if May's deal is defeated, he instead said that it would be up to the govt to decide what happened next and to propose an alternative deal. On the face of it, that sounds like backtracking even from the official stance that Labour would prioritise a general election and then (probably) a referendum. It sounds as if, for now at least, Corbyn is digging his heels in and seeking the maximum chance of getting a Soft Brexit - delaying a confidence vote unless he thinks he can win it to trigger an election, and maybe hoping that a Soft Brexit / "Brexit for jobs" will emerge as an alternative.

 

Mind you, if/when May's deal is defeated, he'll be under massive pressure to move on that - from his own MPs, many of his shadow cabinet and most of his party members. If there's no Soft Brexit in the offing, he'll surely be forced to table a confidence vote even if he looks set to lose it, rather than allow things to drift towards No Deal? Then, if he loses the confidence vote, he'll be under massive pressure to back a referendum.......thus his delaying tactics, as a Soft Brexiteer / "Socialism in one country" man.

 

Labour voters saying they'll defect if the party fails to back a referendum need to think carefully, though. The voting figures that you quote are almost identical to those from the 1983 election, when Thatcher's vote actually fell slightly but the Tories gained a 144-seat landslide due to the centre-left vote being split between Labour and the Lib/SDP Alliance (Tories 40%, Labour 27%, Alliance 25%, from memory)... Due to our stupid electoral system, the centre-left vote can only afford to split like that if the centre-right / Tory vote does likewise (possible some time, but not imminent).

 

I'm ambivalent about a second referendum, anyway, even though I wish we'd voted Remain. I'd back a referendum rather than No Deal or May's Deal, but not sure that I'd prefer it to a Soft Brexit deal, given the scope for major division.

 

2 hours ago, Kopfkino said:

Are we really supposed to believe that support for Labour, driven by strong concerns over inequality, fairness, redistribution, and austerity will evaporate just because they won't stop Brexit. I suspect asking people directly how they'd vote if Labour didn't resist Brexit and how they'd actually vote on election day with multiple issues facing them, and most likely after Brexit has happened, are quite different. One is a nonsense hypothetical and the other would be a multiple-choice reality.

 

I absolutely agree with this point - IF the election happens after Brexit and certainly if it doesn't happen until 2022 or whenever.

 

However, if there were to be an election BEFORE Brexit happens or is decided (not the most likely outcome, but still possible) then surely the election would be dominated by Brexit - and if Labour opposed a referendum in such an early election, I think it would be badly damaged.....probably leading to lots of Labour seats going Tory due to the split centre-left vote....and a Tory Govt with a good majority, if not a landslide.

[Buce]

21 minutes ago, MattP said:

Imagine being 6 pts behind this current mob.

 

 

 

Or you could turn it on its head and say, 'imagine only being 6pts ahead of a party that has Diane Abbott in the Shadow Cabinet'.

 

It's all about spin, Matt.

[Alf Bentley]

24 minutes ago, theessexfox said:

Corbyn had nothing to do with a march for a second referendum given he is explicitly rejecting calls for a second referendum.

 

This.

 

@RODNEY FERNIO 

 

Corbyn is your ally on Brexit (sort of). 

He might not want the same sort of Brexit as you, but he wants Brexit - it's most of the rest of his party (members, voters, MPs) who don't. 

 

Tell him, @MattP 

Without Corbyn as Labour leader, Brexit might already have been cancelled one way or another.  

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

However, if there were to be an election BEFORE Brexit happens or is decided (not the most likely outcome, but still possible) then surely the election would be dominated by Brexit - and if Labour opposed a referendum in such an early election, I think it would be badly damaged.....probably leading to lots of Labour seats going Tory due to the split centre-left vote....and a Tory Govt with a good majority, if not a landslide.

I don't think it would affect the voting that much, Labour voters hate the Tories and I don't see then switching just because of one issue, soon as Corbyn goes town to town promising things it will soon be forgotten.

 

Labour stood on a manifesto fully committed to Brexit in 2017 and it didn't do them any harm at all.

 

I have huge reservations about voting Tory at the minute, but come polling day I'll probably do it as the alternative is Diane Abbott in charge of our security services. 

[breadandcheese]

Is the danger for Labour that some betrayed voters just won't vote? 

 

There's no getting away from the fact that Corbyn's Brexit position is one of ignoring party members and doing everything to avoid a second referendum. I would say Corbyn's policy position is just as precarious as May's.