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Buce

What's in the news?

By Buce, in General Chat

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Buce

Buce

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The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed

With deadlock in Westminster over how to move forward with Brexit, what are the polls saying about people’s changing attitudes towards leaving the EU? The latest YouGov survey for the People’s Vote campaign contains three important messages.

 

1. Staying in the EU now holds a commanding lead over the government’s deal

Views of voters match those of MPs in rejecting Theresa May’s deal by almost two to one. And Conservative voters, like Conservative MPs, are divided, with half of them backing her deal and one in three opposed.

For most of this year, polls have shown remain ahead of leave, typically by four to six points. But in a referendum between staying in the EU and leaving on the terms that the government has negotiated, staying enjoys an 18-point lead: 59-41%.

 

Of the more than 17 million who voted leave in 2016, just 10 million people say they would vote for the government’s deal – 2 million would vote to stay, while 3 million are not sure or would not vote. In contrast, of the 16 million who voted remain in 2016, 13.5 million would still vote to stay in the EU. Only 1.4 million would vote for May’s deal, and 1 million are not sure or would not vote.

And pro-Europeans are significantly more enthusiastic than Brexiters. Counting only those who say they are certain to vote in a “no Brexit” v “May’s deal” referendum, staying in the EU currently leads by 63-37%. An 18-point lead among all voters therefore widens eight points, to 26%, among those certain to vote.

2. Millions of 2016’s leave voters have lost faith in Brexit’s ability to make life better

Few erstwhile leave voters now think Brexit will make life better. Three months ago, 43% of leave voters thought Brexit would make the economy stronger. Just 12% feared it would make the economy weaker. Today, only 24% of leave voters say “stronger”, while slightly more, 26%, say “weaker”. That’s a huge, 33-point drop for “stronger” in the net difference between the two views since the beginning of September. There have also been marked falls in leave voters’ optimism about people’s standard of living and the NHS. In all three cases, pro-Europeans’ views have changed little. They are just as pessimistic now as they were three months ago.

 

3. Labour could suffer badly if it ends up facilitating Brexit

Labour is seeking an early general election. YouGov asked people how they would vote if Labour, along with the Conservatives, supported going ahead with Brexit. Labour slumps to third place, with 22%, behind the Liberal Democrats, who would jump to 26%. Those who voted Labour last year and remain the year before say they are more likely to switch to the Liberal Democrats (49%) than stay with Labour (41%). The survey suggests no compensating boost among those who voted leave in the referendum. In fact, it would be the Conservatives who would benefit if both main parties backed Brexit. Their support among leave voters would rise from 62% to 69%. Labour support among leave voters would slip from 21% to 19%.

Moreover, most Labour leave voters who take sides back a people’s vote, by 56-44%. Again, the evidence suggests little downside to Labour backing a people’s vote. Indeed, among Labour supporters generally, such a vote is massively popular, with 77% in favour and just 23% against. A further challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is to persuade voters that he could get a better Brexit deal if he were prime minister. This claim is rejected by 68%-11% of voters generally, by 47%-30% of Labour voters, and – perhaps most ominously – by 52-23% of Labour leave voters.

A parallel question provides one fragment of relief for the prime minister, though a blow for the Brexit project generally. Just 18% of voters (and 20% of Conservatives) think a different leader could get a better Brexit deal – 60% of all voters (and 70% of Conservatives) disagree. All the signs are pointing to the public losing faith in Brexit fast. It’s clear we need a people’s vote.

• Peter Kellner is former president of YouGov. This article first appeared on infacts.org

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

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30 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

Tbh Alf, one might have expected that you'd respect parliamentary standards and that such a thing shouldn't be deemed acceptable because 'it's hardly crime of the century'. I mean I think it has been blown out of proportion but I also don't think it's is acceptable behaviour for the leader of the opposition, or anyone in parliament for that matter (and other matters should be dealt with similarly), to sit in parliament and say these things. All he had to do was come back, say it was wrong, and apologise

 

So yes there's other bigger priorities, no it's not even criminal but that funnily enough is no reason to ignore it.

 

 

I didn't say that it should be deemed acceptable. It shouldn't. If he did call her a "stupid woman", I agree that he should have apologised. He claims not to have said that. He might be lying, but there's no conclusive proof. 

 

My whole point was that if he did mutter something mildly insulting, that was wrong but it pales into insignificance given the seriousness of what's going on with the Brexit clusterfvck and potential No Deal chaos.

 

If there's ever a Corbyn Govt and it causes the havoc that right-wingers expect, I look forward to them ignoring the mobilisation of troops, billions being wasted, medical supplies being jeopardised, parliamentary democracy being cynically delayed and steamrollered, and chaos, uncertainty and damage being caused to lives and businesses. I look forward to you concentrating instead on whether Boris might have called someone "part-Kenyan" or whatever.....  :rolleyes:

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Salisbury Fox

Salisbury Fox

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2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

It's also after a major negative adjustment in our national finances: ONS has increased our national deficit by £12bn to allow for the reality that a large proportion of student loans will never be repaid....lol

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/student-loans-university-education-tuition-maintenance-grants-deficit-national-debt-a8686556.html

 

 

It's ok, Jezza said he would sort it!

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davieG

davieG

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3 hours ago, Buce said:

One-third of UK arms sales go to states on human rights watchlist, say analysts

 

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/dec/21/one-third-of-uk-arms-sales-go-to-states-on-human-rights-watchlist-say-analysts

No surprise there as they are the probably the states that need them the most to keep their people in place, I suspect it'll be the same for all arms selling countries.

 

Not that that's a justification.

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ithuriel

ithuriel

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55 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Yes.  Shameful really.

It certainly is, you'd think we would be able to sell more, they should get the sales people to watch, Only fools and horses, to get the sales patter right, shufty.

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

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2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Yes.  Shameful really.

But at least if we stop we can bask in a warm virtuous glow while they buy them from the USA or Russia instead. 

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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

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1 minute ago, MattP said:

But at least if we stop we can bask in a warm virtuous glow while they buy them from the USA or Russia instead. 

 

We should have sold gas chambers to Hitler. British business really missed a commercial opportunity there.

 

:ph34r:

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Buce

Buce

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2 hours ago, MattP said:

But at least if we stop we can bask in a warm virtuous glow while they buy them from the USA or Russia instead. 

 

I expect drug dealers make the same argument. 

Somebody has to be first to show some integrity. 

With your attitude we’d still be shipping slaves from Africa. 

Edited by Buce
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Salisbury Fox

Salisbury Fox

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2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

I expect drug dealers make the same argument. 

Somebody has to be first to show some integrity. 

With your attitude we’d still be shipping slaves from Africa. 

Whilst I agree with the sentiment, I really don't see how us showing some integrity will stop the weapons coming from an alternative state.  I just can't see how letting a possible nefarious state to fill the void would be in anyone's interest, and sadly let's be honest, someone will definitely fill the void.

 

At least by providing these weapons it does allow us to exert some influence over their use, albeit I accept that this might be limited as seen in Yemen. Like it or not it also enhances our reputation with some of these leaders which can be used to influence improvements in areas of their domestic policy that are non-defence related too.  

 

I accept that it might be unpalatable to many people within the countries that these weapons are being purchased and may harm our reputation with them accordingly, but they are not the ones that hold the power.

 

just my take on it.

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Wymsey

Wymsey

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54 minutes ago, TheUltimateWinner said:

Bloody drone is apparently back!

Some say it's environmental activists, who don't agree with having a new runway installed at Gatwick. Wouldn't be surprised if it's them doing it.

Edited by Wymeswold fox
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Alf Bentley

Alf Bentley

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13 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Why can’t they just shoot these drones out of the sky? Surely they’ve got the weapons to blow them into a thousand pieces?

 

I've just noticed that you've changed from Izzy Muzzett to Izzy.

 

Is this a bit like with Beyoncé or Madonna, where someone achieves superstar diva status and only requires a single name?

If so, when you become an even bigger FT superstar poster, will you go the full Prince and replace your name with a symbol and be referred to as "the poster formerly known as Izzy"? ;)

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Kopfkino

Kopfkino

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35 minutes ago, Izzy said:

Why can’t they just shoot these drones out of the sky? Surely they’ve got the weapons to blow them into a thousand pieces?

 

Probably cos they don't want stray bullets flying around populated areas and it's likely much harder, even for a highly trained marksman, than people realise

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Izzy

Izzy

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19 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I've just noticed that you've changed from Izzy Muzzett to Izzy.

 

Is this a bit like with Beyoncé or Madonna, where someone achieves superstar diva status and only requires a single name?

If so, when you become an even bigger FT superstar poster, will you go the full Prince and replace your name with a symbol and be referred to as "the poster formerly known as Izzy"? ;)

I’ve always regretted not having a shorter username during my time on here Alf.

 

I’ve mainly done it to annoy @Countryfox who insisted on calling my Muzzett when everyone else just calls me Izzy :P

 

Besides, all the cool dudes on here have four letter usernames. Isn’t that right @Buce, @Milo, @rico?

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Countryfox

Countryfox

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1 minute ago, Izzy said:

I’ve always regretted not having a shorter username during my time on here Alf.

 

I’ve mainly done it to annoy @Countryfox who insisted on calling my Muzzett when everyone else just calls me Izzy :P

 

Besides, all the cool dudes on here have four letter usernames. Isn’t that right @Buce, @Milo, @rico?

 

You’ll always be Muzzett to me Muzzett ....    :)

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Izzy

Izzy

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5 minutes ago, Countryfox said:

 

You’ll always be Muzzett to me Muzzett ....    :)

I feel honoured that you’ve got your own pet name for me CF. It’s kinda cute :wub:

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