League Position vs Cups

[HarLutt Fox]

There is now an argument for playing the strongest possible team in any remaining cup games. I've no doubt we will do tomorrow against Villa as we're only 90 mins away from Wembley but Rodgers should look to do so in every FA Cup tie as we wouldn't be jeopardising Champions League qualification.

 

History shows that when chasing teams are equal to (or more than) the points behind a given team with the same number of games remaining, then that team will never be caught.

 

In our case, we are 14pts ahead of ManUre, Spuds and Wolves all with 14 matches to play. Job done.

 

We will finish either 3rd or 4th and it may be  more advantageous to finish 4th with regards to Champions League as we will be in Pot 4 and guaranteed 2 matches against either Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, PSG, Juventus etc. 

Finishing 3rd and being in Pot 3 won't necessarily give the same guarantee.

 

So come on, let's go all out for a double date at Wembley.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

The amount of games we have to play cuts down massively now. Currently 4 games in Feb. 3 in March. Obviously got another cup game or two to fit in there but still 9 games in 2 months is nothing. 

 

Like you say, full strength for absolutely everything. 

[HighPeakFox]

Welcome to the forum, @HarLutt Fox. 

[Voll Blau]

Fully agree. Look forward to the spreadsheet-botherers in our fanbase disagreeing though...

[Nick]

24 minutes ago, HarLutt Fox said:

There is now an argument for playing the strongest possible team in any remaining cup games. I've no doubt we will do tomorrow against Villa as we're only 90 mins away from Wembley but Rodgers should look to do so in every FA Cup tie as we wouldn't be jeopardising Champions League qualification.

 

History shows that when chasing teams are equal to (or more than) the points behind a given team with the same number of games remaining, then that team will never be caught.

 

In our case, we are 14pts ahead of ManUre, Spuds and Wolves all with 14 matches to play. Job done.

 

We will finish either 3rd or 4th and it may be  more advantageous to finish 4th with regards to Champions League as we will be in Pot 4 and guaranteed 2 matches against either Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, PSG, Juventus etc. 

Finishing 3rd and being in Pot 3 won't necessarily give the same guarantee.

 

So come on, let's go all out for a double date at Wembley.

I’d want to be in the highest Champions League pot possible - not pot four. 

[HarLutt Fox]

The higher the pot the more likely to be drawn against Eastern European crud. Surely better to play top European sides.

[HighPeakFox]

Is league placing still a factor here? I know it was in 2016, but I have a memory that they wanted to use some sort of European ranking points system derived from previous campaigns. 

[Nicolo Barella]

5 minutes ago, HarLutt Fox said:

The higher the pot the more likely to be drawn against Eastern European crud. Surely better to play top European sides.

Yes but if we play the "Eastern European crud" we have a better chance of qualifying and playing top European sides after the group stages... Either in Europa or CL. If we get Pot 4 we could end up with no European football after November.

[Torten]

5 minutes ago, HarLutt Fox said:

The higher the pot the more likely to be drawn against Eastern European crud. Surely better to play top European sides.

More likely to beat Eastern European crud and get through to the knockouts. Playing a Barcelona/RM in the knockouts I think would be a better outcome than in the group stages.

I don’t want us to be in the CL to make up the numbers, we’ve shown we can go far in 2017, we need to show we can go further.

[Gerard]

The pot you go in is dependent on your coefficient rating not your league position. 

 

It's only the CL and Europa Cup winners and the winners of the leagues with the highest coefficients that go into Pot 1. The other 24 teams are rated by their coefficient and the top 8 go into Pot 2, 9-16 into Pot3 and the rest into Pot 4.

 

We could still get an easy group even in Pot 4. This season if were in Pot 4 we could have drawn:

 

Zenit

Donetsk

Brugge

Leicester

[Nick]

Further you get in CL the more TV money you get too...

[Nicolo Barella]

2 minutes ago, HighPeakFox said:

Is league placing still a factor here? I know it was in 2016, but I have a memory that they wanted to use some sort of European ranking points system derived from previous campaigns. 

Yes, for now at least.

[Nicolo Barella]

Just now, Gerard said:

The pot you go in is dependent on your coefficient rating not your league position. 

 

It's only the CL and Europa Cup winners and the winners of the leagues with the highest coefficients that go into Pot 1. The other 24 teams are rated by their coefficient and the top 8 go into Pot 2, 9-16 into Pot3 and the rest into Pot 4.

 

We could still get an easy group even in Pot 4. This season if were in Pot 4 we could have drawn:

 

Zenit

Donetsk

Brugge

Leicester

We could also have got Barca, Dortmund, and Inter, like poor Slavia Prague.

[Gerard]

10 minutes ago, HarLutt Fox said:

The higher the pot the more likely to be drawn against Eastern European crud. Surely better to play top European sides.

 

I want to go as far as possible not be smalltime and jizzing myself we got Real Madrid.

[Mickyblueeyes]

It’s got to be the strongest team possible for each every game from now until the end of the season. We have a great chance of really making a mark in our history this year, which as a Leicester fan doesn’t come around too often. 
 

what that strongest team is on the day is another question. I know pundits and opposition question our squad depth but it’s actually the best it’s ever been. We have good players waiting in the ranks who can step in and offer something different. The odd change here and there, preserves the “usual” first teamers without adversely effecting the performance or the team. 
 

Champions league and domestic cup double is the the aim while we are still in all competitions.

[Gerard]

1 minute ago, Nicolo Barella said:

We could also have got Barca, Dortmund, and Inter, like poor Slavia Prague.

 

That's the point I'm making as the best teams aren't necessarily in the higher pots. Even if we won the title last year and were in Pot 1 we could have drawn:

 

Leicester (Pot1)

Real Madrid (Pot 2)

Inter Milan (Pot 3)

RB Leipzig (Pot 4)

 

 

 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

15 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

Further you get in CL the more TV money you get too...

"Granddad, tell us about Leicester's net spend in the early 2020s!". 

 

Said no one ever. 

[Aus Fox]

The point is we have 14 league games, a maximum of 2 League Cup games and a maximum of 4 FA Cup games.

If we made both cup finals, we only have 20 games remaining. 
We have a 2 week break coming up, we also have another international break, where of our 25 man squad a maximum of 9 players will have games. (This includes the likes of Madison and Riccardo, who are far from international regulars).

We need to play our best available XI every game for the rest of the season, no matter what the competition.

As far as qualifying for the Champions League goes, if we average a point a game for the last 14 games. Man Utd, Wolves, Spurs or Sheffield Utd would have to average 2 points per game. Non of these teams look capable of doing this from what they’ve delivered so far this season, and Utd, Spurs and Wolves will have European games starting up again soon.

[4ever and ever]

We will be in pot 4 regardless of us finishing, 2nd, 3rd or 4th. It's to do with our coefficient as a team.

[Jobyfox]

It’s all about calculated risk. The team we put out against Brentford should beat them - and they did - although it wasn’t wholly convincing performance wise. 

 

If we draw a lower league side in the next round there is still an argument for sensible rotation to keep the squad involved and ready. Some positions are debatable in terms of our best team anyway.

 

if we draw a top side, I agree, we have to play the very best side available now. 

[Nick]

16 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

"Granddad, tell us about Leicester's net spend in the early 2020s!". 

 

Said no one ever. 

😆 Nice line but we both know it’s not about that. You need to go as far as possible in the competition for the most amount of cash. It’s let’s be honest how Arse and Spurs have achieved that big club status by doing it year on year - irrelevant of how seriously they take the competition. Competing nowadays is just being in the CL for the TV cash, bums on seats, and the players you attract. 

 

I would however want to spend the revenue generated more wisely than we did the last time!

[Nick]

12 minutes ago, 4ever and ever said:

We will be in pot 4 regardless of us finishing, 2nd, 3rd or 4th. It's to do with our coefficient as a team.

Bummer.

[Deeg67]

Job done, my ass.

 

The job is done when the place is clinched.  14 games is plenty to blow a 14 point cushion.  With so many teams effectively tied in 5th all it takes is one of then to go on a freak run - 5 or 6 wins in a row - and we could basically be caught.  Now, that said - as others have noted the schedule crunch lightens up some from here on out, so rotating players isn't going to be as big a factor.  But that doesn't mean you take any chances where your top priority - CL qualification - is concerned.

[Sol thewall Bamba]

5 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

😆 Nice line but we both know it’s not about that. You need to go as far as possible in the competition for the most amount of cash. It’s let’s be honest how Arse and Spurs have achieved that big club status by doing it year on year - irrelevant of how seriously they take the competition. Competing nowadays is just being in the CL for the TV cash, bums on seats, and the players you attract. 

 

I would however want to spend the revenue generated more wisely than we did the last time!

Yeah we didn't do well with the last round of CL money. The sums are so massive when you take into account the PL and CL money combined, that getting to the later stages aren't really that game changing. 

 

Breakdown of prize money for 2019/20 Champions League

Reaching the group stages: 15 million euros

Reaching the round of 16: 9.5 million euros

Reaching the quarter-finals: 10.5 million euros

Reaching the semi-finals: 12 million euros

Reaching the final: 15 million euros

Winning the final: 4 million euros

 

So a repeat of the herculean effort to get through the quarters would have netted us about 10 mill last season, as I say hardly game changing for the club. 

 

Those figures could be total bogus as well, I haven't double checked them. 

 

[CosbehFox]

1 hour ago, HarLutt Fox said:

.We will finish either 3rd or 4th and it may be  more advantageous to finish 4th with regards to Champions League as we will be in Pot 4 and guaranteed 2 matches against either Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, PSG, Juventus etc. 

Finishing 3rd and being in Pot 3 won't necessarily give the same guarantee.

Nothing to do with league position. If we qualify for CL, we will Pot 4 as others have said. 

 

We could get Russian or Portuguese Champions but we could get one of the top country champions. 

Pot 2 is likely to be a 50/50 chance of a Spanish team. 

Pot 3 will be full of 'poorer' teams but with a history of playing in Europe - Roma, Lazio, Marseille. 

 

In terms of fixture congestion it does get a tad easier but a win on Tuesday plus a FA Cup run sees Norwich away, Brighton home and Arsenal away are slotting in elsewhere. 

 

Edited 27 January 2020 by Cardiff_Fox