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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

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14 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Out and about today in another suburb of Leicester and still the banks allow only 3, from what I could see, people in at any one time.  Complete with security on the door.  Queues all down the street.

 If the restriction wasn't there, we'd have the same queue but just inside. No hardship. 

 

I don't really get the opinion that 'we are still lockdown' or the UK is being harsh on it's controls. . I can't travel abroad without risk of being out of work 14 days on return, I can't see more than one household at a time indoors and I can't watch sport outdoors. That's annoying. 

 

These sort of restrictions are hardly those that get me thinking we are in a nanny, controlling state. I have to wear a facemark whilst shopping, that's a hour at most. I can now play team sport. I can go for a drink. I can go get something to eat. I can see my parents with a few tweaks to the normal. I am now going to work every day to a routine I previously had. I have to take some precautions when working in unfamiliar environments but that's about it. Working wise we've returned to normality these past couple of weeks - I don't know about others. 

 

 

Edited by Cardiff_Fox
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25 minutes ago, z-layrex said:

You'd have fear and concern for others if you'd seen what I have seen this year. But you're the guy who was insisting we'd be out of lockdown by April so what do you know.

I started the original thread on the virus. I told you what was coming then and got labelled with tin hat stuff, I also predicted there would be a pensioner clearout such like we have never seen. Now I'm telling you that continued lockdown is more harmful than the virus at its current levels and is not necessary and needs to stop.

 

I've been right so far, it won't be long until it's proved again. But what do I know.

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31 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Out and about today in another suburb of Leicester and still the banks allow only 3, from what I could see, people in at any one time.  Complete with security on the door.  Queues all down the street.

 

Contrast this across the UK with 30 kids in a similarly sized area in 2 weeks time, 5 times over in a day, without masks.  

 

Where are we going with this?  At what point do things change?

I definitely see what you are saying with this. I think one key difference with schools though is generally it will be the same interactions going on each day, whereas out and about in town, at the football, etc etc you are going to be coming across a greater range of people. The strategy has always been to minimise people's networks to keep any cases contained, hence the restrictions on numbers of people meeting up, and then gradually opening up to the point at which it's believed the spread can be kept under control. I think the fiasco with the exam results (and to be honest what was a somewhat unrealistic aspiration from the government) shows just how important it is to return to normality in school - both in terms of ensuring kids are able to continue with their education, but also in terms of preventing any increases in disparity of outcomes, as have been so clearly highlighted. 

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4 minutes ago, simFox said:

I started the original thread on the virus. I told you what was coming then and got labelled with tin hat stuff, I also predicted there would be a pensioner clearout such like we have never seen. Now I'm telling you that continued lockdown is more harmful than the virus at its current levels and is not necessary and needs to stop.

 

I've been right so far, it won't be long until it's proved again. But what do I know.

Do you work in a profession close to this, so it's an informed opinion? Or you're just on a lucky streak of predicting binary outcomes correctly?

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1 minute ago, Fktf said:

Do you work in a profession close to this, so it's an informed opinion? Or you're just on a lucky streak of predicting binary outcomes correctly?

I can read and interpret news and data. Actually, I've been out the UK since January, I didn't come home because I knew I wouldn't get back, so I elected to keep earning. But as you might expect, I have a bit more spare time on my hands to read about what's actually going on, not listen to headlines and soundbites.

 

If I was in the UK I wouldn't be so nearly well informed as my time would be spent in the garage or with my family.

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5 hours ago, StanSP said:

I think that 1.3 million is still not right if it’s down to double counting. Someone I know had 3 tests because the first one was positive even though she didn’t have any symptoms then the second showed negative as did the third.

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Tell ya what I haven’t believed this media pushing negative rhetoric on this. However the BBC online front page is full of stories where holidaymakers are making a mad dash to escape quarantine. 
 

It’s hardly worth the hyperbole. At least half coming back will be able to work from home for two weeks 

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2 hours ago, simFox said:

I started the original thread on the virus. I told you what was coming then and got labelled with tin hat stuff, I also predicted there would be a pensioner clearout such like we have never seen. Now I'm telling you that continued lockdown is more harmful than the virus at its current levels and is not necessary and needs to stop.

 

I've been right so far, it won't be long until it's proved again. But what do I know.


Don’t think arguing with the intensive care nurse about how dangerous the virus is is a good avenue to be honest lol 

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3 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:


Don’t think arguing with the intensive care nurse about how dangerous the virus is is a good avenue to be honest lol 

I know what he is, I've read his posts in the past. But it isn't April/March anymore. 

 

There's a bigger tragedy now in the economy, we've saved the NHS, now we need to save people's livelihoods. Unfortunately he won't be able to treat them in ICU.

 

I have a friend who fixes trains, he regularly finds bits of people, infact he gets paid extra attending those jobs, but he's desensitized to it now. He's been getting a few more lately and I fear it will only increase. Train suicide is way more common than you think.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, simFox said:

I know what he is, I've read his posts in the past. But it isn't April/March anymore. 

 

There's a bigger tragedy now in the economy, we've saved the NHS, now we need to save people's livelihoods. Unfortunately he won't be able to treat them in ICU.

 

I have a friend who fixes trains, he regularly finds bits of people, infact he gets paid extra attending those jobs, but he's desensitized to it now. He's been getting a few more lately and I fear it will only increase. Train suicide is way more common than you think.


What are you proposing? Full reopening of everything, including nightclubs and similar facilities? To get rid of social distancing measures to make it easier for businesses?

 

Thats not supposed to be smarmy, I’m genuinely interested what you think is the path forward. 

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34 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:


What are you proposing? Full reopening of everything, including nightclubs and similar facilities? To get rid of social distancing measures to make it easier for businesses?

 

Thats not supposed to be smarmy, I’m genuinely interested what you think is the path forward. 

Was gonna say there’s very little in the UK which isn’t open now. 

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1 minute ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Was gonna say there’s very little in the UK which isn’t open now. 

The arts and music scene are dying. Anything that relies on crowds. Not everybody will be bothered but it'll affect a good deal of livelihoods for people that both work and support them.

 

I imagine a fair few pubs are gonna struggle to stay open when the weather turns and they cant use outdoor areas as much.

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10 minutes ago, filbertway said:

The arts and music scene are dying. Anything that relies on crowds. Not everybody will be bothered but it'll affect a good deal of livelihoods for people that both work and support them.

 

I imagine a fair few pubs are gonna struggle to stay open when the weather turns and they cant use outdoor areas as much.

 

Certain posters are advocating a full release of restrictions. Well that’s all but happened now.

 

Gigs and theatre open as of tomorrow. Hospitality events reopening too. Pubs always faced with that challenge. 

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14 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Was gonna say there’s very little in the UK which isn’t open now. 

I'm against the lockdowns. 

 

I would like to see things fully reopen yes, but it's more about these local lockdowns.

 

I also think we should open up international travel.

 

If we have to have social distancing, I can live with that, could even bare a few masks so long as it's not written in law! 

 

But it's the lockdowns which are a big thing for me, I can't fathom why they are supported in any way. It will also discourage people to be tested if they know it's going to result in lockdown. Test trace and isolate is another good system, more people might be on board of we use the data sensibly.

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Just now, simFox said:

I'm against the lockdowns. 

 

I would like to see things fully reopen yes, but it's more about these local lockdowns.

 

I also think we should open up international travel.

 

If we have to have social distancing, I can live with that, could even bare a few masks so long as it's not written in law! 

 

But it's the lockdowns which are a big thing for me, I can't fathom why they are supported in any way. It will also so prior common forth to be tested if they know it's going to lock then down. Test trace and isolate is another good system, more people might be on board of we use the data sensibly.

All a local lockdown does is restrict the mixing of households. You are still going work. You can still go the pub. You can still do grass roots sport. 
 

International travel was probably the very reason it accelerated at the rate it did. We only have to look at the Atalanta v Valencia game in the Champions League for that. However outside of holidaying, goods are still travelling across countries without restriction. 

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On 12/08/2020 at 22:07, st albans fox said:

Interesting - you need to have tested positive for covid within 28 days prior to death for it to be counted as a covid death.  Here’s a novel idea = why not allow the health professional responsible for the death certificate to work out what was the cause of death !   I mean this new rule says that someone on a ventilator for 29 days after no longer testing positive won’t have died from covid .......   just nonsense.
the doctor who knows the patient will know if covid was the main contributor to the death - why govt have to get involved is just more crap piled on top of the enormous pile already created .....

Having looked into it this is in fact precisely what the ONS statistics do.
 

The ONS statistics are far more accurate than the PHSE dashboard but are also very much slower to collate as they need to wait until they have the death certificate and can then analyze it.  Their latest report only gets to the end of June. 

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinjune2020

 

according to the ONS there were 50k deaths registered between March and the end of June with covid19 listed as a factor on the death certificate.  Of these 46,700 identified covid19 as the underlying cause of death.
 

During the crisis the government needed faster daily statistics and so asked PHSE to come up with a fast approximate figure to track day by day.  
 

The method that they used was to count deaths with positive Covid 19 tests.  

 

they explain it all here


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/908781/Technical_Summary_PHE_Data_Series_COVID-19_Deaths_20200812.pdf

 

Whilst this has some flaws it  allows daily stats to be produced that were fairly accurate.

 

a) It undercounts by ignoring anyone who died of covid19 symptoms , was assessed by their doctor as having died of covid19 but who lacks a positive test. So e.g if  a care home had an outbreak in March and a number of residents died with identical symptoms but only a few were tested due to test shortages then the remainder would all be discounted.

 

b) it overcounts by counting anyone who died with covid19 but didn’t actually die of Covid 19.

 

Given that the PHSE statistics are  lower than the ONS statistics it would seem that a) was more significant than b)
 

 

The revised method with a 28 day cutoff now has 3 flaws

 

1). It overcounts by including anyone who died with covid19 but not of it within 28 days of a test.  
They estimate this error is of the order of 5%

 

2) it undercounts by excluding anyone who dies in hospital of covid19 more than 4 weeks after a positive test. This appears to be of the order  of  4%

 

3) it undercounts by excluding anyone who is medically diagnosed as dying of covid19 but without a positive test.  This would seem to have been the biggest error, but perhaps with much greater availability of tests this will be less significant in future.

 

The revision  probably gives a better view of what is occurring in recent cases.

 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, tom27111 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-53762233

 

This will surely lead to a lockdown in Northampton, where I live.

 

300 infected in a food factory with more test results due back soon.

There is a clearly problem with manufacturing and covid in this country, but there seems to be no interest in more drastic action, as I expect again its economy coming first, which I dont mind until it affects the people who live in those areas who have to go under a local lockdown just so their local factory can make money or/and they start dying from it.

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11 hours ago, StanSP said:

Someone on reddit raised the idea to me that they may have been double testing tests carried out (given your post I think that may be a possibility as well), he said he lives in Leicester and was tested positive 3 times, and raised the idea if that counted as 3 positive tests on the system, instead of 1.

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8 hours ago, Legend_in_blue said:

Out and about today in another suburb of Leicester and still the banks allow only 3, from what I could see, people in at any one time.  Complete with security on the door.  Queues all down the street.

 

Contrast this across the UK with 30 kids in a similarly sized area in 2 weeks time, 5 times over in a day, without masks.  

 

Where are we going with this?  At what point do things change?

On another forum I am on, there is some people who think kids should be going back to school regardless of the consequence, I stated I disagreed, I was outvoted, but I think its a serious concern.

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2 hours ago, simFox said:

I'm against the lockdowns. 

 

I would like to see things fully reopen yes, but it's more about these local lockdowns.

 

I also think we should open up international travel.

 

If we have to have social distancing, I can live with that, could even bare a few masks so long as it's not written in law! 

 

But it's the lockdowns which are a big thing for me, I can't fathom why they are supported in any way. It will also discourage people to be tested if they know it's going to result in lockdown. Test trace and isolate is another good system, more people might be on board of we use the data sensibly.

Indeed, some have realised the metrics are flawed, test more, find more, find enough then you in a lockdown.  They need to drop the cases per 100k metric as a contributor to lockdown decision making.

 

We need to make a it a good thing to have more tested, but if the result is a local lockdown, it will turn people away.

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12 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Not good developments over here in the last 24 hours - 100-odd cases yesterday and now as of 4.30pm more than 50 cases today in my own district alone, which means there will likely be a lot more nationwide. Linked mostly to churches.

Jesus will save them at least.

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9 hours ago, z-layrex said:

You'd have fear and concern for others if you'd seen what I have seen this year. But you're the guy who was insisting we'd be out of lockdown by April so what do you know.

I'm interested to know what you and your colleagues have learnt about how to treat people with covid. With so few treatments available have you changed the way you treat people in say relation to how and when oxygen is given or are things still very much the same as they were in April?

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