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filbertway

Coronavirus Thread

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Annoying that a genuinely interesting and informative thread has had to be locked. Hopefully this can become the new thread actually for discussing the virus. I see the heat's turning up on Brazil. It will be interesting to see what happens in a country where the virus has been in the main allowed to spread between the population.

 

I'm still not sure what's cracking off in Belarus as well..it must not be that bad otherwise we would surely hear some news coming out of there?

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Central America seems to be hit badly now. Apparently the epicentre of the virus at the moment. 

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11 minutes ago, filbertway said:

Annoying that a genuinely interesting and informative thread has had to be locked. Hopefully this can become the new thread actually for discussing the virus. I see the heat's turning up on Brazil. It will be interesting to see what happens in a country where the virus has been in the main allowed to spread between the population.

 

I'm still not sure what's cracking off in Belarus as well..it must not be that bad otherwise we would surely hear some news coming out of there?

Was discussing with my work colleagues today (Based in Minsk) and they say that the there are no restriction in place unless you have symptoms/have it.

This seems wrong, because as we know, there are countless reports of asymptomatic transmission. Did not want to push too hard over online messaging applications.

 

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11 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

Does warm weather have any effect on the virus?

No but if you can find a way to hit the body with a lot of light it clears it right up apparently.

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18 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Central America seems to be hit badly now. Apparently the epicentre of the virus at the moment. 

From what I've seen Brazil had around 30days worth of food before lockdown would need to end. They're really struggling given their president all but denied the existence of the virus. 

 

10 minutes ago, Markyblue said:

Does warm weather have any effect on the virus?

They aren't sure from what I've read.

 

From the papers I've scanned they believe there'll be more spread in winter months, but much of that data ahasnd predictions has come from the initial spread through Europe during our cooler period at the start of the year. 

 

From research on previous coronaviruses they think we'll see more transmission in Winter, but given this is a new virus they're frankly guessing and predicting.

 

This is ~2months old but sums it up quite nicely

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/mar/historical-coronaviruses-show-evidence-seasonality-immunity

 

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25 minutes ago, StanSP said:

Central America seems to be hit badly now. Apparently the epicentre of the virus at the moment. 

 

I heard Latin America in general. God knows how the prominent Brazilian cities with the favelas are going to cope. You have to think with people living on top of each other that’s a disaster waiting to happen, especially with that moron Bolsonaro at the helm.

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6 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Are we a bit glossing over the fact that fatalities are dropping consistently with no sign of an increase weeks after restrictions start to be reduces across Europe?  Not a lot of happy coverage of the fact that this is fantastic news!

Agreed.

 

There was a fair bit of noise around Germany easing restrictions and a soaring R0. 2 weeks on since the reported soaring R0 their daily cases have levelled off / been slightly in decline.

 

Great news.

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In response to this I have bought some new camping kit on the assumption that sites will be open come mid August when I am off to Cornwall!  Woohoo!

 

 

Yes it will rain for two weeks I know.

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14 minutes ago, UniFox21 said:

From what I've seen Brazil had around 30days worth of food before lockdown would need to end. They're really struggling given their president all but denied the existence of the virus. 

 

They aren't sure from what I've read.

 

From the papers I've scanned they believe there'll be more spread in winter months, but much of that data ahasnd predictions has come from the initial spread through Europe during our cooler period at the start of the year. 

 

From research on previous coronaviruses they think we'll see more transmission in Winter, but given this is a new virus they're frankly guessing and predicting.

 

This is ~2months old but sums it up quite nicely

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/mar/historical-coronaviruses-show-evidence-seasonality-immunity

 

 

13 minutes ago, Finnaldo said:

 

I heard Latin America in general. God knows how the prominent Brazilian cities with the favelas are going to cope. You have to think with people living on top of each other that’s a disaster waiting to happen, especially with that moron Bolsonaro at the helm.

Yes was going to say Bolsonaro is Trump-levels of denial. Sadly. 

 

 

7 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Are we a bit glossing over the fact that fatalities are dropping consistently with no sign of an increase weeks after restrictions start to be reduces across Europe?  Not a lot of happy coverage of the fact that this is fantastic news!

Perhaps glossed over! 

 

Was announced a couple of days ago Ireland had their first day of no hospital deaths! 

 

And case numbers for some countries across Europe (Denmark, Austria off top of my head) were only in their 10s as opposed to 100s which is very positive. They came out of lockdown early I believe. 

 

I think there is coverage of it. Used to be days where we'd post the Professor Sikora positivity regularly! 

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9 minutes ago, Wet Trump said:

Agreed.

 

There was a fair bit of noise around Germany easing restrictions and a soaring R0. 2 weeks on since the reported soaring R0 their daily cases have levelled off / been slightly in decline.

 

Great news.

Maybe phrases work like mathematical simultaneous equations.

 

They say 'no news is good news'.

 

Unfortunately, 'good news is no news', too.

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17 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

In response to this I have bought some new camping kit on the assumption that sites will be open come mid August when I am off to Cornwall!  Woohoo!

 

 

Yes it will rain for two weeks I know.

The Village People Selection Box is good value 

 

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Good thread here comparing Germany pre- and post-lockdown... R rates, cases, ICU patient numbers, death numbers. 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Was discussing with my work colleagues today (Based in Minsk) and they say that the there are no restriction in place unless you have symptoms/have it.

This seems wrong, because as we know, there are countless reports of asymptomatic transmission. Did not want to push too hard over online messaging applications.

 

I remember you saying you knew people there. If people were dying left right and centre you'd expect it to come out. I wonder if the fact that their population density is around 50 per km whereas here it's 250 per km means that they're just not going to be hit as brutally as countries with denser populations.

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3 minutes ago, Wet Trump said:

Agreed.

 

There was a fair bit of noise around Germany easing restrictions and a soaring R0. 2 weeks on since the reported soaring R0 their daily cases have levelled off / been slightly in decline.

 

Great news.

The Germans and their media,seem to Show a more balanced approach to their statistics und this R-value. The govt. das already said,by relaxing the lockdown,

we should expect this Value to have yo yo peaks & troughs,especially regionally. This is a Federal govt.so Local County/regionional government have more Singular control, over their own descisions.. They wont panic or be relaxed,just because a few Days tendence,the honest Analytical View has to be taken over

the Collection & gathering the short time and long time periods,to be prepared & flexible to introduce new or extend/relax regulations accordingly...

 

Though what I See in the UK,looking in from outside, the UK seem to be also now understanding & not Chasing every day every Single Corona-virus known statistic,es a special event...The Media also are letting it role,without going OTT-headlining on these daily stats.I

I Hope also,People are more relaxed and Not pinning their World expectations  in expecting any miracle vaccine....

 

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25 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

In response to this I have bought some new camping kit on the assumption that sites will be open come mid August when I am off to Cornwall!  Woohoo!

 

 

Yes it will rain for two weeks I know.

Couldnt you go a bit earlier,we need a Bit of Rain now.Not in fking August..!!! :P

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23 minutes ago, fuchsntf said:

Couldnt you go a bit earlier,we need a Bit of Rain now.Not in fking August..!!! :P

I was going to say the same. My grass really needs watering.

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2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Are we a bit glossing over the fact that fatalities are dropping consistently with no sign of an increase weeks after restrictions start to be reduces across Europe?  Not a lot of happy coverage of the fact that this is fantastic news!

Noises from the WHO seem to indicate that they think a resurgence can now be avoided if we're careful and have an effective tracing system. Based practically on the fact that SARS and MERS disappeared and that there haven't been sustained second waves anywhere in Asia and Europe as of now. If that does happen then those people pushing a herd immunity 'everyone will get it eventually' methods will look very stupid (mainly looking at you Sweden) and have blood on their hands.

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2 hours ago, Wet Trump said:

Agreed.

 

There was a fair bit of noise around Germany easing restrictions and a soaring R0. 2 weeks on since the reported soaring R0 their daily cases have levelled off / been slightly in decline.

 

Great news.

If was accepted there would be an increase,the UK seemed to be Reporting These figures has some Football League competition...

 

Then a Quiet Corvid. 'Bundesland ' Schleswig hollstein took a big outbreak,in a couple of slaughterhouses, with Foreign cheap labour. Put up in Cramped quarters,which probably annoyed the German public,more than the Outbreak itself.

Then in a couple of neighbouring counties,a couple of Restaurants being sourced from such meat-factories,had also comparable issues...

If Germany can get through These Next up and Coming weeks,with a yo-yo of statistics Holding within their boundaries,and the R0 -value avg.,slowly come down with the odd- controlable-acceptable-peak...

Something like seeing it at First yo-yo between 0,8-1.4,then moving into something like 0,5-1.0, before hopefully settling between 0.3-0.6

We also have to Take in and experience,the First homeland-holidays,then After Middle of June,the first neighbouring-countries vacations returnees.

 

My Daughter lives in Switzerland,her husband is working,she is just Finishing her Sports-sciences doctor (German-qualification),she has finished the exams,in Principal completed,even got her initial papers...

but she has to Close out a Served working-practicum,which in her case might turn put to be her First permanent job...

Trekking/ tree-wall- free hand Climbing and seiling instructor,Plus Mountain -Adventure -events manager. Her boss wants to Keep her after the practicum.

 

Now they were closed like many others because of Corvid-19,but will again Open Next Week 

First Swiss-homeland,and then in 2-3 weeks for European nature/Sports adventure tourists.

My wife's and my quandary,also First concerns of my daughter...She obviously has to be Close to customers,no social-distancing regulations possible,so

we have to be aware und wise,when we can decide to visit them,our initial thoughts would be wait awhile see how the Land lays and settles, with regulations

and how the Virus infection issues pan out. Maybe July or wait until Late August. but First concerns ,I belong to that Corvid vulnerable group,so my daughter Contact with unknown strangers gives food or ammunition for that quandary process...

 

It would be our normal 'get out of jail card'. for our holiday planning.If it wasnt for the virus,we would of seen them a few times...Also with get togethers with her

Brother & Sisters families.

 

Now Its about awaiting the First waves of tourists-experiences around Europe,with those R0 figures and corvid-19 statistics,

upto deep into July,before we could really think of doing  something that use to be quite normal...:unsure:

New times,life's new planning, understanding and the hard Acceptance of the new realities,that will Shadow us for sometime yet...!

 

 

 

Edited by fuchsntf

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3 minutes ago, Silebyfox_89 said:

Still get the feeling there are a few countries who are still under reporting the true death toll: Italy, Spain, Russia, China etc.....

Got family in Mexico. Universal feeling is of massive under reporting there too

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50 minutes ago, Silebyfox_89 said:

Still get the feeling there are a few countries who are still under reporting the true death toll: Italy, Spain, Russia, China etc.....

Yeah better do to a Belgium now and know exactly what you are facing and how to deal with it. We eventually got there with recording which is good.

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