Investments, stocks, shares

[Tommy G]

48 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

I'm getting nervous about markets to be honest and reading about the BofE warning about the risk of the AI bubble bursting isn't helping. 

 

Pension has done so well over the last two years I'm weighing up de-risking a bit. So difficult to decide though, having had three decades of just going all out risk wise and not worrying about it

How old are you? Presume nearer retirement age if you're worried about a short term dip.

[Mickyblueeyes]

Kicking myself for not putting more in gold. Should I wait for the dip or anyone predicting another record ?

[Bellend Sebastian]

30 minutes ago, Tommy G said:

How old are you? Presume nearer retirement age if you're worried about a short term dip.

Certainly nearer retirement age than the start of my career!

 

Not much to go on other than instinct and experience, so not reliable AT ALL, and I also know that trying to time markets is a fool's errand. Corrections are all part of the cycle but I'm just starting to feel that one's not far off. 

 

Will probably end up largely sitting tight as it's a few years before I can get at it and could be a few years after that until I actually need to

[Tommy G]

28 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Certainly nearer retirement age than the start of my career!

 

Not much to go on other than instinct and experience, so not reliable AT ALL, and I also know that trying to time markets is a fool's errand. Corrections are all part of the cycle but I'm just starting to feel that one's not far off. 

 

Will probably end up largely sitting tight as it's a few years before I can get at it and could be a few years after that until I actually need to

Unless you are knocking around the 55 year mark I'd steer clear of de-risking yet, it's gone up so much it would take a serious tumble to start wiping out large gains. The beauty about drawn down is you can try and time it a bit better than an annuity - you can hold on a bit if there's market fluctuations. Good luck with it all  

[Bellend Sebastian]

7 hours ago, Tommy G said:

Unless you are knocking around the 55 year mark I'd steer clear of de-risking yet, it's gone up so much it would take a serious tumble to start wiping out large gains. The beauty about drawn down is you can try and time it a bit better than an annuity - you can hold on a bit if there's market fluctuations. Good luck with it all  

Cheers. I've always just gone along with the dips - been paying in for 27 years now, I think, but having upped my contributions in recent years and the markets having been brilliant part of me - and it's only part - wants to protect what I've got, especially as the pot is getting relatively big. 

 

I think if I do decide to de-risk it will only be by a modest amount. Seen too many people try and be clever with this stuff and mess it up completely

[blabyboy]

57 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Cheers. I've always just gone along with the dips - been paying in for 27 years now, I think, but having upped my contributions in recent years and the markets having been brilliant part of me - and it's only part - wants to protect what I've got, especially as the pot is getting relatively big. 

 

I think if I do decide to de-risk it will only be by a modest amount. Seen too many people try and be clever with this stuff and mess it up completely

If you're diversified then the dips are usually shallower. The market has been unusual of late with both stocks and gold going upwards, bonds have been less favourable but not tanking like they were last year and earlier this year.

 

If you're into podcasts, I recommend this one to your list: https://pensioncraft.com/investor-education/resources/podcasts/

 

All the ones in September are pertinent to the discussion.

[Greg2607]

9 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Cheers. I've always just gone along with the dips - been paying in for 27 years now, I think, but having upped my contributions in recent years and the markets having been brilliant part of me - and it's only part - wants to protect what I've got, especially as the pot is getting relatively big. 

 

I think if I do decide to de-risk it will only be by a modest amount. Seen too many people try and be clever with this stuff and mess it up completely

If you do have a sizeable pot and you are worried or unsure, take some professional advice.   A good financial advisor may just give you peace of mind or be able to give some options on the best way to protect what you have. 

 

It's money well spent. 

[Bellend Sebastian]

9 hours ago, blabyboy said:

If you're diversified then the dips are usually shallower. The market has been unusual of late with both stocks and gold going upwards, bonds have been less favourable but not tanking like they were last year and earlier this year.

 

If you're into podcasts, I recommend this one to your list: https://pensioncraft.com/investor-education/resources/podcasts/

 

All the ones in September are pertinent to the discussion.

 

1 hour ago, Greg2607 said:

If you do have a sizeable pot and you are worried or unsure, take some professional advice.   A good financial advisor may just give you peace of mind or be able to give some options on the best way to protect what you have. 

 

It's money well spent. 

Wise words, gentlemen. I've worked in the advice sector since the 90s so glad to hear it being given such a glowing endorsement! 

 

In pretty well diversified compared to what a lot of folk on here would consider a good spread but aggressively positioned and I know how much it can go down as I've seen it all before. 

 

It's really more about me deciding whether I still have the appetite for this. I think I probably do, for now at least, but I'm a lot closer to having to think about whether this is still appropriate than my colleagues at the other end of their careers

[Bellend Sebastian]

Jamie helping to calm me down here: 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5ej03p604o

[Grebfromgrebland]

2 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

If you do have a sizeable pot and you are worried or unsure, take some professional advice.   A good financial advisor may just give you peace of mind or be able to give some options on the best way to protect what you have. 

 

It's money well spent. 

This is the way

[blabyboy]

13 hours ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

Jamie helping to calm me down here: 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5ej03p604o

That guy is itching to trigger the burst.. you can feel it in the interview... And it's coming up to 18 yrs for the cycle, so he wouldn't be out of step with trends.

[Bellend Sebastian]

So I have de-risked a BIT (basically going from 10 out of 10 on risk down to 7 out of 10). Not changed it for the regular contributions.

 

Have I done the right thing? No idea

 

[blabyboy]

43 minutes ago, Bellend Sebastian said:

So I have de-risked a BIT (basically going from 10 out of 10 on risk down to 7 out of 10). Not changed it for the regular contributions.

 

Have I done the right thing? No idea

 

You've done the right thing according to the risk appetite you have, that's all you can ask for. I hope it pays off for you. 

[Sol thewall Bamba]

On 09/10/2025 at 22:35, blabyboy said:

That guy is itching to trigger the burst.. you can feel it in the interview... And it's coming up to 18 yrs for the cycle, so he wouldn't be out of step with trends.

Why would he want his stock price (where a vast amount of his wealth is tied up) to tank a few years before he retires?

Edited 11 October 2025 by Sol thewall Bamba

[blabyboy]

26 minutes ago, Sol thewall Bamba said:

Why would he want his stock price (where a vast amount of his wealth is tied up) to tank a few years before he retires?

You know where they are all invested?

 

To me, I'd say JPM is less invested in AI because he's actually calling the potential bubble( and not just him btw). Someone overinvested is not going to draw attention to this problem until they have de-leveraged themselves/ their organisation - no sane person anyways.

 

If you read the article, he also goes on to mention that he is concerned that this bubble collapsing will also affect the wider market, which would then affect every bank, and in turn JPM and himself.

 

Given that historically, bankers do not tend to squash each other in public due to the consequences for the sector, I'd take the view that he trying to minimise the consequences to that sector(AI) as much as possible in order to better protect his near term stock price and future wealth.

 

This article has popped up on the Beeb and has some interesting info on the circle jerk funding that is currently occurring in AI.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz69qy760weo

[Sol thewall Bamba]

4 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

You know where they are all invested?

 

To me, I'd say JPM is less invested in AI because he's actually calling the potential bubble( and not just him btw). Someone overinvested is not going to draw attention to this problem until they have de-leveraged themselves/ their organisation - no sane person anyways.

 

If you read the article, he also goes on to mention that he is concerned that this bubble collapsing will also affect the wider market, which would then affect every bank, and in turn JPM and himself.

 

Given that historically, bankers do not tend to squash each other in public due to the consequences for the sector, I'd take the view that he trying to minimise the consequences to that sector(AI) as much as possible in order to better protect his near term stock price and future wealth.

 

This article has popped up on the Beeb and has some interesting info on the circle jerk funding that is currently occurring in AI.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz69qy760weo

No I'm talking about JPMC's stock price. Dimon's comp will mainly be shares/deferred equity. If the market tanks and the banks go with it then a huge amount of his wealth goes just before he's looking to exit. Why would he want that?

[blabyboy]

He wouldn't. The point I was trying to make (probably ham-fistedly) is that he sees the problem and the danger of letting it continue.i.e. it becomes a systemic risk. So, lance the boil now and try to mitigate the losses as much as possible (he'll still do nicely when he does retire) so that he can retain as much potential wealth as possible.

 

If the system goes he loses everything. If only part of it goes, he keeps a percentage of that potential wealth. The more he contains, the more he saves. Land softly, not hard.

[lcfc sheff]

Trump is an absolute joke, messing with the market 

[Paninistickers]

I've got a global tech fund that up 35% since Jan this year. 

 

Weighing up whether to cash out tomorrow, get a regular 4% cash savings on it for a bit and wait for a dip

Edited 12 October 2025 by Paninistickers
Fund

[lcfc sheff]

3 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

I've got a global tech fund that up 35% since Jan this year. 

 

Weighing up whether to cash out tomorrow, get a regular 4% cash savings on it for a bit and wait for a dip

Do whatever you feel most comfortable with. There’s always gonna be a what if but 35% returns in less than a year is incredible and obviously wouldn’t be typical 

[Paninistickers]

6 minutes ago, lcfc sheff said:

Do whatever you feel most comfortable with. There’s always gonna be a what if but 35% returns in less than a year is incredible and obviously wouldn’t be typical 

Obvs wish I'd put more in now. But that the game, right? Knew it was a high risk fund so only put a fraction in, leaving rest in less volatile funds

[Tommy G]

On 10/10/2025 at 19:08, Bellend Sebastian said:

So I have de-risked a BIT (basically going from 10 out of 10 on risk down to 7 out of 10). Not changed it for the regular contributions.

 

Have I done the right thing? No idea

 

[Spiritwalker]

On 08/10/2025 at 13:34, Mickyblueeyes said:

Kicking myself for not putting more in gold. Should I wait for the dip or anyone predicting another record ?

I read it could rise another 20% in the next 12 months.

 

[HighPeakFox]

I have a pupil who is a professional on this area. Apparently a favourite acronym for Trump is TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out. 

[DennisNedry]

EEE rising strongly again.