General News

[urban.spaceman]

1 hour ago, Spudulike said:

BBC Verify....

 

What have we learned about the £22bn ‘black hole’?published at 09:56

09:56

By Anthony Reuben

In her Budget announcement yesterday, Rachel Reeves referred again to the £22bn “black hole” that she claimed to have found in the public finances when she arrived at the Treasury.

She referred to a report from the Office for Budget Responsibility, saying: “Had they known about these undisclosed pressures that have since come to light, then their spring Budget forecast for spending would have been and I quote, ‘materially different’.”

But Rishi Sunak said the OBR had declined to support her claims of a £22bn black hole, saying: “It actually appears nowhere in their report.”

The OBR asked the Treasury for an estimate of the pressures on departmental spending that should have been known about for the March forecast and was told about £9.5bn worth.

So the OBR did find that there were things that it should have been told about for its March forecast, but not as much as the £22bn claimed by the government.

Again, the report is from March. 

 

Read the budget pages 10/11:

 

1.10 In July the audit of public spending set out £22 billion of in-year pressures against departmental budgets for 2024-25.7 The government has published the full breakdown of the £22 billion pressure in the ‘Government Response to the OBR Review of DEL Forecasting’.8 As shown in Chart 1.1 below, the effect of these pressures is apparent in published public sector finances data, where current spending for the first half of the year is £11.8 billion higher than predicted in the OBR’s March 2024 forecast profile.9

 

 

Hunt/Sunak also committed paying compensation to Post Office/Infected Blood victims but didn't account for it at all. That alone will be £1.8bn for Post Office and £11.8bn for Infected Blood victims. Labour have committed to paying £2.3bn a year over the forecast period (budget, page 1)

Budget:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6722120210b0d582ee8c48c0/Autumn_Budget_2024__print_.pdf

OBR report from March:
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Review_of_the_March_2024_forecast_for_DELs.pdf

Government response to OBR report:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672215794da1c0d41942a95d/OBR_review_response_WEB.pdf

 

[reporterpenguin]

28 minutes ago, David Hankey said:

It seems some on here think that the aged are the problem, what bunkum.

 

They have paid into the system for decades.

 

Remember, we are all a drain on resources, from the cradle to the grave.

The best way I have seen it described is that the workers of today support the retired previous generation through their taxes. We may like to think that what we pay in is kind of stashed away for us for when we're older, but in reality that's not how it works.

 

Accordingly the circumstances of the time affect the whole population, working and retired. As the ratio of workers to pensioners gets ever smaller, it's currently 3.5 workers per pensioner, the strain on supporting pensioners gets ever harder. And that's not even taking into account that we're living so much longer, and are costing more and more in terms of healthcare. 

 

It's not saying the aged are the problem, it's just acknowledging that we're now in a time where the cost of supporting those who are deservedly retired after years of paying in are unfortunately a greater cost as a whole. The support today's retirees saw, and paid for, their predecessors to get isn't possible due to the changing demographic. It's not their fault and it may not be fair, but it's the way it is.

[bovril]

10 hours ago, The Horse's Mouth said:

We really are finished as a country aren’t we 

We need an emigration thread.

[David Hankey]

41 minutes ago, Sampson said:

Absolutely no one is saying the old are the problem - actually quite the opposite, people are saying the problem is that people aren’t having enough children so the older can’t be supported. No one is blaming the old or saying they should be happy to die or not be supported by the state, or that they haven’t paid into the system. The fact people are trying to spin discussions on population ageing and the demographic crisis as that is exactly one of the problems as to why populists get an easy win off it and why the political optics of the discussion are so difficult.

You’re completely misunderstanding the debate. It’s simply undeniable fact that the older a person is, the more on average they cost the health service, claim disability benefits or pensions, these stats are publishers on the ONS every year and can be found on the government website each year, last I remember a retired person costs the UK government more than twice as much as a working age person every year on average in terms of healthcare, pensions and disability benefits. That is absolutely not a moral judgement on that or to say they didn’t “earn” that by working hard. The issue isn’t the old people, it’s that people in western countries are not having enough children so the population is becoming made up not just a small proportion of older people as had always previously been the case, but becoming a population of a majority of older people and there are not enough working people now to pay into the system to support the older people. 

Well thank you for elucidating.

[bovril]

Not a huge fan of the source but this is quite a good read. 3rd and 4th paragraph a good summary of how we ended up here.

 

https://unherd.com/2024/10/labours-blueprint-for-decline/

[SpacedX]

3 hours ago, Greg2607 said:

I think Farmers have been hard done by and the £1m cap on IHT really isn't large enough for most farms and absolutely will result in sales having to be made to pay for the IHT bill. 

 

This is an appallingly ill conceived policy by the Chancellor/government. Apologists point to the fact that agricultural property relief was increasingly being used by the very wealthy to protect their assets from tax. This is going to crucify the already beleaguered traditional family farm whilst the NFU warned that such a move may seriously damage food production. Every penny that the government saves from this will come from the next generation having to break up their family farm. Also, such businesses are more likely to sell up to the developer. 

 

Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief have allowed venerable and historic farm businesses to be passed on to the next generation without incurring inheritance tax charges which many would be unable to pay without selling up. This was also essential for farmers who rent land as part of their business model. This comprises at least 60% of farmland in the UK. 

[South Shire Fox]

4 hours ago, ealingfox said:

 

Correct. More budget should go to public transport, active travel schemes and EV infrastructure. 

 

Even a 1p increase would have afforded the retention of the £2 bus fare cap, with a couple of hundred million left over.

They could of just left the 1p on the price of a pint to do that. 1p that no one will even notice. Encouraging food inflation that will hurt everyone certainly isnt the way to go

Edited 31 October 2024 by South Shire Fox

[Greg2607]

6 minutes ago, SpacedX said:

This is an appallingly ill conceived policy by the Chancellor/government. Apologists point to the fact that agricultural property relief was increasingly being used by the very wealthy to protect their assets from tax. This is going to crucify the already beleaguered traditional family farm whilst the NFU warned that such a move may seriously damage food production. Every penny that the government saves from this will come from the next generation having to break up their family farm. Also, such businesses are more likely to sell up to the developer. 

 

Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief have allowed venerable and historic farm businesses to be passed on to the next generation without incurring inheritance tax charges which many would be unable to pay without selling up. This was also essential for farmers who rent land as part of their business model. This comprises at least 60% of farmland in the UK. 

I did read today that those who cannot pay immediately, do have 10 years to be able to make the payment..... also, the £1m relief is on top of the £1m allowance... so in effect, farms that are worth over £2m.   

 

Doesn't make it any better... but doesn't make it sound as drastic as it could have been. 

[boots60]

The only way to end the age old problem of "Old age" is for mandatory euthanasia for everyone aged 65 +.

 

I myself will be 65 in January, does anyone want my season ticket?

 

[Zear0]

25 minutes ago, boots60 said:

The only way to end the age old problem of "Old age" is for mandatory euthanasia for everyone aged 65 +.

 

I myself will be 65 in January, does anyone want my season ticket?

 

No thanks

[urban.spaceman]

It was a few pages back but I honestly just can't get on board with the rehabilitation of Sunak's image or character. I did think it was touching in his last PMQs yesterday when he said "I'm proud to have been the first British Asian Prime Minister. But I was even prouder that it was not that big a deal."; as a side note the only complaint I remember at the time was a caller to LBC saying the Prime Minister should be someone born here, "like Boris".

 

But for me nothing can repair the reputation of someone who bragged about undoing Brown's funding formulas designed to distribute money more fairly to deprived areas and give it to more depraved areas like Tunbridge Wells. Or the writing off of billions in COVID fraud because he either couldn't be arsed to retrieve it or because it was given to the Tories mates. Or him spaffing hundreds of millions up the wall on a Rwanda scheme that was never supposed to work. Or allowing his wife to avoid *millions* in taxes. Or favourable contracts given to his father in law's company. Or his Eat Out To Help Out policy that directly lead to 50,000 deaths.

 

His reputation is as stained as Truss, Johnson, Hunt, Hancock or Cameron IMO.

[urban.spaceman]

[Greg2607]

I think the single biggest indictment of the governance of the UK since 2008 (regardless of your political persuasion) is that they have somehow managed to build an economy and society where 43% of working people don't earn enough to pay income tax. 

 

that figure alone should be a national scandal. 

[Zear0]

11 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

The painful thing is that must surely be parody, but I just can't tell anymore.

[grobyfox1990]

2 hours ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

I think the first part can be queried, but the rest?

GODDAM Phil Bowman liked the comment! I thought he was exclusive to me  Seems like he got a thiiiiiiiiiiing gooooing oooooooooooon with other posters.

Yeh 'we are all a drain' is proper lazy guff. Kids and old people are a drain, but your man in his 40s at the height of his earnings capacity working non stop is not a comparative drain 

[Foxdiamond]

2 hours ago, reporterpenguin said:

The best way I have seen it described is that the workers of today support the retired previous generation through their taxes. We may like to think that what we pay in is kind of stashed away for us for when we're older, but in reality that's not how it works.

 

Accordingly the circumstances of the time affect the whole population, working and retired. As the ratio of workers to pensioners gets ever smaller, it's currently 3.5 workers per pensioner, the strain on supporting pensioners gets ever harder. And that's not even taking into account that we're living so much longer, and are costing more and more in terms of healthcare. 

 

It's not saying the aged are the problem, it's just acknowledging that we're now in a time where the cost of supporting those who are deservedly retired after years of paying in are unfortunately a greater cost as a whole. The support today's retirees saw, and paid for, their predecessors to get isn't possible due to the changing demographic. It's not their fault and it may not be fair, but it's the way it is.

Is the number of working age people not working for a number of reasons also a factor?

[CosbehFox]

https://www.axa-im.co.uk/investment-institute/market-views/market-updates/uk-budget-reaction-going-growth

 

Interesting summary by AXA IM on the budget. Worth noting impact on money markets 

[Spudulike]

2 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

Again, the report is from March. 

 

Read the budget pages 10/11:

 

 

1.10 In July the audit of public spending set out £22 billion of in-year pressures against departmental budgets for 2024-25.7 The government has published the full breakdown of the £22 billion pressure in the ‘Government Response to the OBR Review of DEL Forecasting’.8 As shown in Chart 1.1 below, the effect of these pressures is apparent in published public sector finances data, where current spending for the first half of the year is £11.8 billion higher than predicted in the OBR’s March 2024 forecast profile.9

 

 

Hunt/Sunak also committed paying compensation to Post Office/Infected Blood victims but didn't account for it at all. That alone will be £1.8bn for Post Office and £11.8bn for Infected Blood victims. Labour have committed to paying £2.3bn a year over the forecast period (budget, page 1)

Budget:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6722120210b0d582ee8c48c0/Autumn_Budget_2024__print_.pdf

OBR report from March:
https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Review_of_the_March_2024_forecast_for_DELs.pdf

Government response to OBR report:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/672215794da1c0d41942a95d/OBR_review_response_WEB.pdf

 

Blimey, looks like smoke and mirrors 

 

Too complicated for me but here's the BBC Verify article that makes it slightly easier to understand....

 

BBC News - Is there a £22bn ‘black hole’ in the UK’s public finances?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2e12j4gz0o

 

[kenny]

36 minutes ago, Greg2607 said:

I think the single biggest indictment of the governance of the UK since 2008 (regardless of your political persuasion) is that they have somehow managed to build an economy and society where 43% of working people don't earn enough to pay income tax. 

 

that figure alone should be a national scandal. 

That includes all the people that don't work at all because they don't need to or don't want to.

 

Its most likely under 20% that don't pay anything and will include students and part-time employment.

 

I think its a good thing that those lower earners get to keep their wages whilst higher earners pay more.

[ajthefox]

1 hour ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

52 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

The painful thing is that must surely be parody, but I just can't tell anymore.

You'd hope so but I think the more likely outcome is that Richard Ladd is a bellend. I do think it probably should be on new purchases rather than existing as there may well be an impact on people selling their actual home but oh well.

[CosbehFox]

59 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

https://www.axa-im.co.uk/investment-institute/market-views/market-updates/uk-budget-reaction-going-growth

 

Interesting summary by AXA IM on the budget. Worth noting impact on money markets 

Bond's jumping up now 

[JonnyBoy]

my partner owns a house, I own a house. She rents hers out and lives with me.. we are buying a house next year together and will sell mine and keep hers still. if it is a NEW joint mortgage, will this be classed as an additional property where we would have to pay an additional 5% stamp duty? 

 

 

[grobyfox1990]

22 minutes ago, CosbehFox said:

Bond's jumping up now 

Yep 4.47 on the 2yr and a 1 bip spread in 2-10 year. At last, the free lunch has presented itself!! 

[grobyfox1990]

Just now, JonnyBoy said:

my partner owns a house, I own a house. She rents hers out and lives with me.. we are buying a house next year together and will sell mine and keep hers still. if it is a NEW joint mortgage, will this be classed as an additional property where we would have to pay an additional 5% stamp duty? 

 

 

If you are married you will be paying additional rate SDLT on any new purchases

[Dunge]

3 hours ago, SpacedX said:

This is an appallingly ill conceived policy by the Chancellor/government. Apologists point to the fact that agricultural property relief was increasingly being used by the very wealthy to protect their assets from tax. This is going to crucify the already beleaguered traditional family farm whilst the NFU warned that such a move may seriously damage food production. Every penny that the government saves from this will come from the next generation having to break up their family farm. Also, such businesses are more likely to sell up to the developer. 

 

Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief have allowed venerable and historic farm businesses to be passed on to the next generation without incurring inheritance tax charges which many would be unable to pay without selling up. This was also essential for farmers who rent land as part of their business model. This comprises at least 60% of farmland in the UK. 

That is probably the part of the budget that concerns me the most in terms of big picture.