Scottish Independence Poll

[Guest MattP]

What happens to the Union Jack and Ensign should Scotland get the 'YES' Vote?

 

I'd keep it exactly the same, if Salmond can keep the pound and the Queen we can keep some blue on a flag.

[Guest MattP]

Just been watching some of the scenes from Glasgow last night between the pro Union v Independence groups stand off, looked very tense (and clearly looked like a big Rangers v Celtic influence as well) can see this getting quite nasty in the next few days.

 

A 70 year old blind man punched in the face as well for handing out 'No' leaflets, got the guys who did it though.

 

Looks like something you would see in Northern Ireland. (Excuse the ridiculous video title)

 

[Alf Bentley]

I think English people from across the spectrum occasionally think "fvck em" when they hear the Scottish hatemongers constantly blaming us for their own shortcomings but deep down we don't want Scotland to leave.

 

This is largely true, though a minority are also immature English people with a superiority complex. I'm sure most mainstream Tories don't want Scotland to go, but I bet some of the nuttier right-wing Tory and UKIP ideologues would see it as a better opportunity to turn the rest of the UK into the sort of ultra-Thatcherite, low-tax, low-spend playground for the rich that they'd like to see, and sod the consequences in terms of social squalor and disorder.

 

Just looked at what the 2005 & 2010 elections would have been without the Scottish MPs (figures including Scotland in brackets):

2005: Lab 315 (356), Con 197 (198), LD 51 (62).....Lab majority 19 (Lab maj. 66)

2010: Con 306 (307), Lab 217 (258), LD 46 (57).....Con majority 10 (Con/LD coalition)

 

So, the Scottish Labour MPs would have made little difference in 2005-10 (apart from the odd parliamentary rebellion). From 2010, could the Tories have held together a government with a majority of 10? Might have ended up having to buy off their nuttiest backbenchers or Ulster Unionists (with what consequences for N. Ire?); or they might have ended up forming a coalition, anyway.

 

The Scottish MPs would have made no real difference to the outcome in 1979, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001 or 2005. I suppose that a larger Tory majority in 1992 would have left Major less vulnerable to his Eurosceptic "bastards" (his word, not mine).

 

The second 1974 election would have been affected as Harold Wilson had a majority of just 3, which he'd have lost without the Scots. Maybe he'd have formed a "Lib-Lab pact/coalition" earlier....or maybe there'd have been another election in 1975, perhaps with Heath staying on and forming a second government, and Thatcher would have remained a cabinet minister of minor significance!? I'm a politics nerd, but find all this fascinating!

 

According to the BBC, the Tories won more Scottish seats than Labour in 1955! Certainly, they still had quite a few, particularly in rural/suburban areas, even in the 70s & 80s.

 

A pause for thought for Webbo: can you imagine if England were the smaller country and voted Tory for election after election, returning almost no Labour MPs, but a Labour government in Edinburgh consistently imposed left-wing policies on England?! Easy to understand their frustration, even though I hope they vote "No"...and let's remember that the Tories opposed any devolution whatsoever until after it was introduced: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8122065.stm

[Grandad.]

What will happen to the British Army?

If Yes. 

[Guest MattP]

As accurate as all that Alf I can't help thinking a lot of it is pretty much irrelevant given that we are heading into far different times than any previous elections.

 

People don't have the same loyalty to the main two parties anymore, the Tories couldn't get a majority in 2010 despite Labour being as unpopular as I can ever remember, Labour appear to be struggling to get one now even with the Tories poll ratings often dropping below 30%.

 

I think harping back to evidence of majority's from years gone by completely pointless now given we are entering times where both major parties will be struggling to get one. Despite the figures from a past era, those Scottish seats are clearly of huge importance for Labour given the changing times politically ahead of him.

[Sir Fynwy]

What will happen to the British Army?

If Yes.

Scotland propose having a defence force and the remainder of the UK will most likely slim the forces down a bit further

[separator]

What will happen to the British Army?

If Yes. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29135269

[Alf Bentley]

As accurate as all that Alf I can't help thinking a lot of it is pretty much irrelevant given that we are heading into far different times than any previous elections.

 

People don't have the same loyalty to the main two parties anymore, the Tories couldn't get a majority in 2010 despite Labour being as unpopular as I can ever remember, Labour appear to be struggling to get one now even with the Tories poll ratings often dropping below 30%.

 

I think harping back to evidence of majority's from years gone by completely pointless now given we are entering times where both major parties will be struggling to get one. Despite the figures from a past era, those Scottish seats are clearly of huge importance for Labour given the changing times politically ahead of him.

 

I largely agree with your informed speculation, but informed speculation is all that it is, ultimately. God knows what British politics will look like in 10 years time...interesting times.

 

However, some seem to think that Labour would almost never have been in government without their Scots MPs, which is clearly not true. In most elections in the last 50 years, Scotland had little or no effect on what government was formed. In those years when its absence would have had an effect (1974, 1992 to some extent, 2010), the effects wouldn't have been straightforward.

 

Must work!

[Guest MattP]

It completely slipped my mind that the Tories would have got a majority in 2010 without them.

 

In terms of legitimacy we could have a Conservative majority again in the UK tomorrow morning, maybe Cameron could thrash out some quick temporary terms and we can off the Lib Dems until May?

[Sir Fynwy]

It completely slipped my mind that the Tories would have got a majority in 2010 without them.

In terms of legitimacy we could have a Conservative majority again in the UK tomorrow morning, maybe Cameron could thrash out some quick temporary terms and we can off the Lib Dems until May?

Maggie only got in because of the SNP and Scottish votes

[Guest MattP]

Maggie only got in because of the SNP and Scottish votes

 

What dubious mathematics do you have to back that up? The SNP got 2 seats in 79 (losing 9).

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1979

[PAPA LAZAROU]

It was an interesting read but the guy sounds like a bit of a unrealist dick.

 

I have little doubt that what he says about the YES team is true but it doesn't take away from the fact that these people want to fight over what is right in Scotland as opposed to fighting over what is right in the UK. They have more chance of getting their ideals across in Scotland alone than they do in the UK.

 

Basically I think the article is talking irrelevance. 

 

You should know you are quite good at that. 

[Jon the Hat]

The YES voters are going to be seriously dissapointed if they win, then find themsleves in towo years either outside of the EU, or inside the EU with the Euro and paying in more than they ever did in the UK as standards of living drop and all the jobs move to the UK.

[absolutelegend]

Just an observation, but it seems to me that 99% of those interviewed on TV who said they would vote yes couldn't string a sentence together.

[leicsmac]

As accurate as all that Alf I can't help thinking a lot of it is pretty much irrelevant given that we are heading into far different times than any previous elections.

 

People don't have the same loyalty to the main two parties anymore, the Tories couldn't get a majority in 2010 despite Labour being as unpopular as I can ever remember, Labour appear to be struggling to get one now even with the Tories poll ratings often dropping below 30%.

 

I think harping back to evidence of majority's from years gone by completely pointless now given we are entering times where both major parties will be struggling to get one. Despite the figures from a past era, those Scottish seats are clearly of huge importance for Labour given the changing times politically ahead of him.

 

I know we've covered this before, but even though that is no doubt the case the FPTP system makes it still pretty ironclad that either Labour or the Tories will be calling the shots. As you have said before, a non-voter is pretty much a vote for the big 2.

 

Whether they get a majority to do so or not is, of course as you say, another matter. And I think the sudden lack of Scottish seats would give the Tories a massive boost under the present system.

 

I know both you and Webbo have said many on the right put country ahead of party, but you can't tell me that there's not a few conservatives who like the idea of a good grip on power for their ideology so much that they're wanting a Yes vote just to make sure that's what happens. I'd be pretty sure that if it was the Home Counties having a vote on independence then you'd have a 'go for it' reaction from quite a few on the left for the same reason.

[Sir Fynwy]

What dubious mathematics do you have to back that up? The SNP got 2 seats in 79 (losing 9).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1979

The SNP were the first party to call for a no confidence vote against the Labour Government in 1979, the Conservatives only joined in after the SNP so without the SNP there wouldn't have been a no confidence vote that Calahan lost by 1 vote and thus the 1979 election

[Guest MattP]

I know we've covered this before, but even though that is no doubt the case the FPTP system makes it still pretty ironclad that either Labour or the Tories will be calling the shots. As you have said before, a non-voter is pretty much a vote for the big 2.

 

Whether they get a majority to do so or not is, of course as you say, another matter. And I think the sudden lack of Scottish seats would give the Tories a massive boost under the present system.

 

I know both you and Webbo have said many on the right put country ahead of party, but you can't tell me that there's not a few conservatives who like the idea of a good grip on power for their ideology so much that they're wanting a Yes vote just to make sure that's what happens. I'd be pretty sure that if it was the Home Counties having a vote on independence then you'd have a 'go for it' reaction from quite a few on the left for the same reason.

 

Their power is slowly being diminished though and it's looking far more likely that they will need the support of minor parties in the future in order to gain power with a coalition rather than an outright majority.

 

I'm sure you have people from all parties wanting the Scots to go, it's a consequence of the entitlement we have given to them and the British people outside of Scotland and quite rightly became sick of it.

 

The SNP were the first party to call for a no confidence vote against the Labour Government in 1979, the Conservatives only joined in after the SNP so without the SNP there wouldn't have been a no confidence vote that Calahan lost by 1 vote and thus the 1979 election

 

So it meant she got in 4/5 months earlier than she would have done anyway then given an election would have occured in the Autumn rather than in May?

 

It's a bit ridiculous to suggest Maggie 'got in' based on that from the SNP, a different result would clearly have not occured just a few months later, if anything she'd have won with an increased majority given a no confidence vote was already being passed on the ruling office.

[Smudge]

After the "Winter of discontent" anyone could have called for a vote of no confidence and got it.

The country was out of control and held to ransom by the Unions. To which Callaghan, after returning from a trip to the Caribbean, responded "Crisis? What crisis?

[Sir Fynwy]

After the "Winter of discontent" anyone could have called for a vote of no confidence and got it.

The country was out of control and held to ransom by the Unions. To which Callaghan, after returning from a trip to the Caribbean, responded "Crisis? What crisis?

It passed by 1 vote, hardly a convincing margin that shows "anyone could have called for a vote and got it".

An election in the autumn may have given the same result but who knows. It still shows that 9 times out of 10 Scotland gets the UK government it votes for and has a large influence compared to its size.

[surrifox]

The YES voters are going to be seriously dissapointed if they win, then find themsleves in towo years either outside of the EU, or inside the EU with the Euro and paying in more than they ever did in the UK as standards of living drop and all the jobs move to the UK.

 

 

my impression from many (not by any means all) Scots I've encountered is that they would jump off a tall building just to find out whether it hurts

[Manwell Pablo]

Well the Boozers are open all night and day and the votes are split nearly 50/50, combination of the two makes the whole process pointless as there will be fuk all left of Scotland come the morning anyway.

[Alf Bentley]

I It still shows that 9 times out of 10 Scotland gets the UK government it votes for and has a large influence compared to its size.

 

The "influence" point is arguable, but the Tories haven't won the largest number of seats in Scotland since 1955.

 

By next year, there will have been Tory UK governments for 36 of the last 60 years (1955-64, 1970-74, 1979-97, 2010-15).

36/60 is a lot more than 10%...  

[Jordan]

We'll see how the Scottish public reacts later, but up until now, the Scots have been relatively well behaved considering how important this referendum is, and how stark the divide can be between the two sides.

I would agree that people should have a little respect even as tensions run high, but a little graffiti, some loud yelling, people being opinionated on Facebook and a politician being "jostled" are hardly signs of a mass riot, much less a nasty political campaign.

From my outside perspective, it's actually refreshing to see a relatively good-natured campaign of this sort, and such a high level of public engagement/participation. I could only hope for political campaigns over here (even those with much, much less at stake than this) to be so civil!

[leicsmac]

We'll see how the Scottish public reacts later, but up until now, the Scots have been relatively well behaved considering how important this referendum is, and how stark the divide can be between the two sides.

I would agree that people should have a little respect even as tensions run high, but a little graffiti, some loud yelling, people being opinionated on Facebook and a politician being "jostled" are hardly signs of a mass riot, much less a nasty political campaign.

From my outside perspective, it's actually refreshing to see a relatively good-natured campaign of this sort, and such a high level of public engagement/participation. I could only hope for political campaigns over here (even those with much, much less at stake than this) to be so civil!

 

Good perspective there. I think those who think this campaign on both sides has been dirty really do need to take a close look at American political campaigning for what the term really means.

[Smudge]

It passed by 1 vote, hardly a convincing margin that shows "anyone could have called for a vote and got it".

An election in the autumn may have given the same result but who knows. It still shows that 9 times out of 10 Scotland gets the UK government it votes for and has a large influence compared to its size.

Regardless of who called for a vote of no confidence, an election was imminent. The Tories won the election and in my opinion would have in the then foreseeable future.