Golf

[Hirsty The Blue 94]

Picked out my players for the Masters this week, not necessarily getting much value but backing them largely because they are players I back at most Major's and when they win one day I won't do them.

Speith 11/1
Stenson 22/1
Mickleson 25/1
Kuchar 40/1

 

Then a few silly outsiders

 

Koepka 90/1

Furyk 80/1

Stricker 200/1

Couples 300/1

Definitely going to pile into Tiger missing the cut which is somehow better than EVENS. I think he is only playing in this for commercial reasons rather than his game being anywhere near ready to compete at an acceptable level for him. Can see him taking a few months off after this to get his swing ready by the US in June.

[Ric Flair]

Picked out my players for the Masters this week, not necessarily getting much value but backing them largely because they are players I back at most Major's and when they win one day I won't do them.

Speith 11/1

Stenson 22/1

Mickleson 25/1

Kuchar 40/1

 

Then a few silly outsiders

 

Koepka 90/1

Furyk 80/1

Stricker 200/1

Couples 300/1

Definitely going to pile into Tiger missing the cut which is somehow better than EVENS. I think he is only playing in this for commercial reasons rather than his game being anywhere near ready to compete at an acceptable level for him. Can see him taking a few months off after this to get his swing ready by the US in June.

 

He shot 31 front 9 in practice yesterday. It looks like his swing is getting better. He'll still be horribly short of tournament golf but Augusta is one course he seems to go very well on after a break. I'd never rule him out. Evens isn't worth touching. I think there's far more value in backing him at 50s and then laying him off if he has a decent first round.

[HowardsBulletHeader]

As mentioned in the betting thread gone for Kuchar and Dubuisson.

I could make a case for half the field winning the tournament in all honesty.

Walker, Watson and Spieth have no value left in my opinion, despite the fact I think it will be one of those that takes the Green Jacket.

Tempted by Jason Day though, my only worry is (as I think someone has mentioned in here) he can't seem to win strokeplay events regularly enough for a player of his class.

[Donut]

Augusta is a golf course with a lot of subtle nuances. There are safe spots, spots to miss, times to be aggressive, and times to back it off. Its for this reason that it tends to be a seasoned campaigner that does well at the Masters. Very rarely does a Masters newcomer make a serious challenge to win. So ideally, a golfer with Augusta pedigree will be your pick this week.

 

What you will also need, is a golfer that hits a HIGH ball. Over the years, Augusta has been stretched out, and the lengthening of the course means that some of the more severe green complexes, particularly greens like 5 and 7 where players would be going in with wedge or nine iron, all of a sudden its a mid iron without as much stopping power. So someone that hits a flat ball has real difficulty getting to some of the pins on the course now.

 

As Ric rightly points out, par 5 performance is massive. All the par 5's are reachable with a good tee ball for the big hitter. When you think about how tough some of the par 4s are, like 1, the tough sloped green on 9, 11, the green on 14, it makes par 5 performance even more crucial. The par 3s are gettable depending on pins. 4 is ridiculously long, but 16 is gettable, particularly on sundays and thursdays and sundays.

 

As for picks, i have a few thoughts.

 

I think Day is a decent pick personally. Hes coming of age as a player, a fearless putter, he can work the ball right to left with ease. Already shown some good form this year with the win at Torrey Pines and has plenty of Augusta form. could be an each way shout.

 

The two out and out value picks id look at would be Scott and Bubba. Both have shown they have Augusta games. Bubba with the imagination, Scott with precision, and wit#h the longer putter which he has weilded to enormous success.

 

Absolutely no value in some of the players like McIlroy and Spieth.

 

On the subject of Spieth, i think he has a (small) issue in his swing that seems to show up in the biggest events on a sunday afternoon. I think (from watching him live and from numerous tv broadcasts), he is a very handsy player. Nothing wrong with that. But i think it puts more strain on him on a sunday. He tends to fear the left ball and has a chicken wing hold off move with his driver. When you combine this with the fact that hes actually not very long, im not sure whether i fancy him for Augusta. I think every once in a while, that flip hook will come out, or its ugly brother the high right block at just the wrong time, and thats all it takes to drop 3 or 4 shots for the week, where you have to hit a more conservative iron to the green, or even worse chip out.

 

Its a small issue he has, i mean MINISCULE. But it does show up at times.

 

You may also want to look at value in first round leaders. Its not beyond the realms that Freddy Couples could come up with a 66 or 67 on thursday. He still hits it plenty far, and a hot day with the putter, there may be value. He cant last 4 rounds, but he can certainly go low on any given day.

[Collymore]

I've spent the morning looking for value (I only use a couple of bookies) and have identified the following as the best (or joint best) odds on the market. I will only be looking to put maybe 5 bets on. Can anyone spot any real value hidden in the hornets nest below? - sorry for the poor spelling of names!

 

Winner

 

Scwartzel 101

Steinson 23

Fowler 41

Schnider 46

Rose 46

Kucjar 46

Ozabel 1001

Holmes 51

Palmer - 81

Poulter 81

Johnson 101

Caberia 101

Mickelson 29

 

Top 5 

 

Fowler 9.5

Rose 10

Oostehzen 12

Steinson 5

Kuchar 8

Johnson 21

Cabera 21

Donald 21

Duffner 26

 

Top 10 

 

Walker 3

Mickleson 3.5

Rose 4.5

Donald 10

Johnson 10

Cabera 9

Haas 9

Donald 11

Duffner 11

 

Top 20

 

Johnson 4.33

Cabera 4.33

Donald 4.33

Kaymar 4.33

Leishman 6.5

[Donut]

I've spent the morning looking for value (I only use a couple of bookies) and have identified the following as the best (or joint best) odds on the market. I will only be looking to put maybe 5 bets on. Can anyone spot any real value hidden in the hornets nest below? - sorry for the poor spelling of names!

 

Winner

 

Scwartzel 101

Steinson 23

Fowler 41

Schnider 46

Rose 46

Kucjar 46

Ozabel 1001

Holmes 51

Palmer - 81

Poulter 81

Johnson 101

Caberia 101

Mickelson 29

 

Top 5 

 

Fowler 9.5

Rose 10

Oostehzen 12

Steinson 5

Kuchar 8

Johnson 21

Cabera 21

Donald 21

Duffner 26

 

Top 10 

 

Walker 3

Mickleson 3.5

Rose 4.5

Donald 10

Johnson 10

Cabera 9

Haas 9

Donald 11

Duffner 11

 

Top 20

 

Johnson 4.33

Cabera 4.33

Donald 4.33

Kaymar 4.33

Leishman 6.5

 

Of the odds youve posted, and if you were looking for value, personally i would go for:

 

Angel Cabrera- Top 20 finish

Rickie Fowler- Top 5 finish

 

You list "Johsnon" a few times. Is that Zach Johnson, or Dustin Johnson?

[Simo86]

I've had Fowler (30/1) and Kaymer (80/1) each way and Spieth (10/1) to win for the Masters this year. I usually make some sort of profit each year on it....got a feeling this year I won't though for some reason

[ScouseFox]

i'm on dubuisson (90/1) & koepka (80/1) with betfair paying 7 places, and jimmy walker (22/1) & patrick reed (35/1) on paddy power, paying 6 places and offering cash out on e/w bets. 

 

 

on rory to be first round leader @ 10s too. 

[Ric Flair]

Here we go then, i've hammered my research and I think Dustin Johnson takes it. His performances in previous Masters isn't amazing but he's also done ok and a few years ago was going very nicely before he lost his head. He seems a diferent beast since he came back from his mysterious (not very mysterious) absence and I think he has some value at 20/1 in places. Likewise Adam Scott is far more backable at 22/1 than Jason Day for me. Scott has won here 2 years ago, been 2nd another time and another top 5 so he's got this gaff locked down if he can find his A game. He's gone back to the long putter and I think he'll be hugely confident.

 

Brandt Snedeker at 50/1 is huge value too for a player whose had top 5's in majors, done well here in the past and has some good 2015 form with his win in the farmers I think it was? He's my big each way play. I also think Louis Oosthuizen is big for a major winner and previous 2nd place finisher at Augusta, he'll have some wedge on too.

 

Out of the long shots i'm all over Brian Harman at 400/1, I believe he's from Georgia, he's a left hander so he can cut the ball in to holes right handers require a draw which will give him an advantage of landing the ball softly as Donut has mentioned is hugely important. That's why Greasy Phil and Bubba have done well here over the years, they can cut the ball high on the brutal holes and get it close, it can be those fine margins that get you in the mixer. I also, think Berndt Wiesberger at 250/1 might spring a surprise. I don't get put off my debutants as i've had a very good few years on Leishman, Olesen and Blixt last year at ridiculous odds. They might not have won it but if they get priced up at 300-400/1 then a place is about 4 times the odds of the winner anyway. I will scattergun some smaller bets on some more outsiders too.

 

First round leader i'm having a crack at Jiminez as he loves going low in a major in the first round, he also came 4th here last year and was sensational. Steve Stricker at 200/1 might pop out a good first round but I don't think he plays enough anymore to carry it on for 4 rounds so i'd not touch him in the outright market.

[Haydos]

Right, gone for...

 

Brandt Snedeker (E/W) @ 40/1

Ryan Palmer (E/W) @ 70/1

Dustin Johnson (E/W) @ 18/1

Victor Dubuisson (E/W) @ 100/1

Paul Casey (E/W) @ 66/1

 

Branden Grace (Top South African) @ 4/1

Jonas Blixt (Top Cont European) @ 16/1

Paul Casey (Top Englishman) @ 9/2

[Mike Oxlong]

Jordan - Win

Louis - Each way

Jamie - Each way

[chrishlcfc]

Had Jason Day, Matt Kuchar and a stupid outsider in Luke Donald who has been woeful for the past year.

[Haydos]

Why doesn't Sky coverage start until 7pm?

Edit: Being dense, so people can watch after work.

Edited 9 April 2015 by Haydos

[ScouseFox]

spieth is taking the piss here. 6 birdies in 7 holes. 8 under now. 

[Collymore]

Spieth has been jammy as fook. He's due a disaster round.

[Donut]

Why doesn't Sky coverage start until 7pm?

Edit: Being dense, so people can watch after work.

 

The Masters Tournament Committee actually limit the amount of tv coverage given to broadcasters, to preserve the aura of the tournament.

 

Other majors have blanket coverage all day of course.

[HowardsBulletHeader]

Spieth has rode his luck a bit, but this is frankly ridiculous.

[Ric Flair]

What can we read in to the first round then? Is it going to be a low scoring tournament or will the notoriously difficult friday and saturday pin positions bite back and make this contest a survival of the fittest. Yesterday I was surprised how nice the conditions were, there had been forecast rain for the majority of the tournament and it was bright blue skies which meant conditions were easier as there's been rain in the week so the greens were receptive.

 

Most of my picks have not done overly well. DJ is still in the mix and Russell Henley is in the pack but Snedeker had a nightmare back 9, as did Mahan and Dufner. My long shots all look out of it too even after the first round, Wiesberger, Harman and Moon-Bae need very good rounds today to make the cut.

 

Jordan Spieth is a freak at the minute, I honestly don't know how he does it. He doesn't even hit the ball particularly well most of the time but his ability to get the ball in the hole is extraordinary. As Collymore says, you can't help think a disaster round is coming but the kid is so confident he'll fight back with another 64 straight afterwards. He got some very fortunate breaks, but some of his approach play and putting meant he deserved what he got. He is good for the game, I hope he's gunning for it on Sunday along with a load of other players.

 

McIlroy did well to salvage a 71, he could easily have shot 73-75 the way things were going but it's testament to his class that he's ground out a 1 under score and he'll be looking to move up today. Being a bit under the radar will suit him this week.

 

Jason Day was flying back 9, as he often is here and although I was moaning at his paltry odds earlier this week he was always going to be amongst the leaders as he seldom makes mistakes. Great player here.

 

Tiger, Tiger, Tiger. Should we be pleased he got round in 73 or is it sad that we think that score and performance wasn't too bad for the best player to ever play golf? I can't help but feel the latter, even though it was refreshing to see that colossal short game back to it's best and a lot of his driving was decent as well. It was his approach play in to almost every green that was horrible. I honestly would have backed myself to get closer to greens and pins from the positions Tiger was in yesterday. The one he hit on 11 was astonishing. If he can tweak that on the range and keep everything else in check then we can start to enjoy Tiger being back and challenging the very best. It's clear he's still got the determination to do this, I was worried how gracious and relaxed he was in practice was actually a sign he's resigned to the fact he's gone forever but hopefully he was just genuinely in a good happy place.

 

Can't wait for round two, bring it.

[Collymore]

What can we read in to the first round then? Is it going to be a low scoring tournament or will the notoriously difficult friday and saturday pin positions bite back and make this contest a survival of the fittest. Yesterday I was surprised how nice the conditions were, there had been forecast rain for the majority of the tournament and it was bright blue skies which meant conditions were easier as there's been rain in the week so the greens were receptive.

Most of my picks have not done overly well. DJ is still in the mix and Russell Henley is in the pack but Snedeker had a nightmare back 9, as did Mahan and Dufner. My long shots all look out of it too even after the first round, Wiesberger, Harman and Moon-Bae need very good rounds today to make the cut.

Jordan Spieth is a freak at the minute, I honestly don't know how he does it. He doesn't even hit the ball particularly well most of the time but his ability to get the ball in the hole is extraordinary. As Collymore says, you can't help think a disaster round is coming but the kid is so confident he'll fight back with another 64 straight afterwards. He got some very fortunate breaks, but some of his approach play and putting meant he deserved what he got. He is good for the game, I hope he's gunning for it on Sunday along with a load of other players.

McIlroy did well to salvage a 71, he could easily have shot 73-75 the way things were going but it's testament to his class that he's ground out a 1 under score and he'll be looking to move up today. Being a bit under the radar will suit him this week.

Jason Day was flying back 9, as he often is here and although I was moaning at his paltry odds earlier this week he was always going to be amongst the leaders as he seldom makes mistakes. Great player here.

Tiger, Tiger, Tiger. Should we be pleased he got round in 73 or is it sad that we think that score and performance wasn't too bad for the best player to ever play golf? I can't help but feel the latter, even though it was refreshing to see that colossal short game back to it's best and a lot of his driving was decent as well. It was his approach play in to almost every green that was horrible. I honestly would have backed myself to get closer to greens and pins from the positions Tiger was in yesterday. The one he hit on 11 was astonishing. If he can tweak that on the range and keep everything else in check then we can start to enjoy Tiger being back and challenging the very best. It's clear he's still got the determination to do this, I was worried how gracious and relaxed he was in practice was actually a sign he's resigned to the fact he's gone forever but hopefully he was just genuinely in a good happy place.

Can't wait for round two, bring it.

I can't believe that sky returned from an advert break saying "its been the tiger show" you'd be fuming if you had money on him and had just switched on as they were selling it like he was 10 under on the first 12. He was actually 1 over! Just because he'd chipped fairly well and put a few deaomns to bed he was all of a sudden the "tiger show"

Betting on the golf is bizarre. I had greasy Phil at 28/1 who actully finished -2. I woke up this morning expecting him to have shortened only to find he's drifted! The same with zak Johnson - I got 100/1 and he got around on a respectable par and he's drifted to 200/1!!!

Sods law is that I normally always have a flutter on els and Garcia and the year I don't they get off to a blinder!

Ric, I expect ernie to drop like a stone but do you think there's any value in Garcia st 20/1 this morning? Could this finally be his year? The bookies have shortened speith ridiculously short which has created a bit of value in the rest of the field possibly?

[Ric Flair]

I can't believe that sky returned from an advert break saying "its been the tiger show" you'd be fuming if you had money on him and had just switched on as they were selling it like he was 10 under on the first 12. He was actually 1 over! Just because he'd chipped fairly well and put a few deaomns to bed he was all of a sudden the "tiger show"

Betting on the golf is bizarre. I had greasy Phil at 28/1 who actully finished -2. I woke up this morning expecting him to have shortened only to find he's drifted! The same with zak Johnson - I got 100/1 and he got around on a respectable par and he's drifted to 200/1!!!

Sods law is that I normally always have a flutter on els and Garcia and the year I don't they get off to a blinder!

Ric, I expect ernie to drop like a stone but do you think there's any value in Garcia st 20/1 this morning? Could this finally be his year? The bookies have shortened speith ridiculously short which has created a bit of value in the rest of the field possibly?

 

Golf betting is indeed bizarre and is one of the only sports I still have the occasional bet on. It's a rollercoaster and in play betting can be very rewarding. Garcia is my favourite player over the last 15 years and i'd be over the moon if he ever wins a major, he's got twice the ability of a lot of recent major winners but it's between his ears where he falls foul. 20/1 for a player only 4 back might have some value in it, plus you'd kick yourself if he does win it. I've had my fingers burnt on him so much in the past that i'd rather just enjoy any win he has without any financial interest. He's teeing off early today though so he'll be cut from 20s as soon as he puts togetehr a few birdies so again there's value in that sense.

[Collymore]

Golf betting is indeed bizarre and is one of the only sports I still have the occasional bet on. It's a rollercoaster and in play betting can be very rewarding. Garcia is my favourite player over the last 15 years and i'd be over the moon if he ever wins a major, he's got twice the ability of a lot of recent major winners but it's between his ears where he falls foul. 20/1 for a player only 4 back might have some value in it, plus you'd kick yourself if he does win it. I've had my fingers burnt on him so much in the past that i'd rather just enjoy any win he has without any financial interest. He's teeing off early today though so he'll be cut from 20s as soon as he puts togetehr a few birdies so again there's value in that sense.

Yeah 20/1 is worth a £3. If he wins he'll pay for my pond and I can get a statue of him to stick by it...

[Donut]

I can't believe that sky returned from an advert break saying "its been the tiger show" you'd be fuming if you had money on him and had just switched on as they were selling it like he was 10 under on the first 12. He was actually 1 over! Just because he'd chipped fairly well and put a few deaomns to bed he was all of a sudden the "tiger show"

Betting on the golf is bizarre. I had greasy Phil at 28/1 who actully finished -2. I woke up this morning expecting him to have shortened only to find he's drifted! The same with zak Johnson - I got 100/1 and he got around on a respectable par and he's drifted to 200/1!!!

Sods law is that I normally always have a flutter on els and Garcia and the year I don't they get off to a blinder!

Ric, I expect ernie to drop like a stone but do you think there's any value in Garcia st 20/1 this morning? Could this finally be his year? The bookies have shortened speith ridiculously short which has created a bit of value in the rest of the field possibly?

 

I wouldnt personally go on Garcia. He has real troubles on Sunday afternoons. I think all the near misses to Padraig has given him the belief he will always be a nearly man on a sunday.

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

Done Ricky Fowler e/w first 7, I'll get paid on the win portion of a bet with this kid in a major one day.

[Collymore]

I wouldnt personally go on Garcia. He has real troubles on Sunday afternoons. I think all the near misses to Padraig has given him the belief he will always be a nearly man on a sunday.

I couldn't get 20 In the end so didn't back thank god! Good advice!

[Haydos]

Looks like I'm left with...

Casey e/w @ 66/1
Casey top Englishman @ 9/2
Blixt top continental European @ 16/1

D. Johnson e/w @ 18/1

Should return about £100,no doubt they'll all plumet though.

Edited 10 April 2015 by Haydos