The Politics Thread

[The Railway Man]

5 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

 

Sounds like Woolfe met someone a bit more macho and aggressive than him..... Bleeding on the brain sounds a bit serious.

Honestly, if you wrote a factual account about British politics just now and handed it to a fiction publisher, they'd refuse to publish it on the grounds that the fiction was too fantastical to have credibility.

Certainly, Mike Hookam, ex marine for 9 years.

 

Neil Hamilton just stood on the BBC being interviewed and smiled whilst saying "he picked a fight and came off worse", this while the victim is in hospital with what's described now as a "life threatening condition", how low can he go?

[Guest MattP]

Quite shocking to hear what has happened for Woolfe, fortunately he appears to be in a stable condition now, as Alf alluded to, what on earth is going on in British politics at the minute? This is absolutely mental.

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, The Railway Man said:

Watson has already sort of mentioned it but in all seriousness where the **** is Jeremy Corbyn?

 

His party is being battered from pilar to post and he seems to have literally vanished off the face of the earth.

He's on a walking holiday and buying jumpers (seriously)

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1918208/jeremy-corbyn-faces-backlash-after-choosing-to-go-on-holiday-and-buy-knitwear-while-tories-unveiled-brexit-plans/

Quote

 

AFTER much speculation about why Jeremy Corbyn hasn’t been doing the job of an Opposition leader during the Tory Party conference and criticising policies – all can be revealed.The Labour leader is alive and well but has been spending the past few days buying jumpers.Well, a woollen wrap to be precise.

He has been on a break with his wife to walk Hadrian’s Wall and they stopped off at a shop in Northumberland to buy her some knitwear.

The pair posed for photos in Bardon Mill Village Store and Tea Room with her new upcycled garment which was made by The Woolly Pedlar.

 

 

 

 

[Darkon84]

Sky News just breaking now that Stephen Woolfe has regained consciousness and his condition has been improving over the last 2 hours. I imagine Mr Hookem must be breathing quite a sigh of relief!

 

Quote

UKIP sources have told the BBC there was a UKIP meeting of MEPs at 10am today. 

There was a "rumbustious argument" over whether Steven Woolfe had been talking to the Tory party. 

A verbal conflict arose and he went outside with another MEP. 

The other MEP took off his jacket and went outside the room and punches were exchanged. 

It is believed that he banged his head against a structure, a window or a wall but he got up. 

Steven Woolfe later collapsed, doctors were called and his wife was contacted. 

Doctors said he had two "epileptic-like fits" and they believed there was bleeding on the brain. 

He was taken to hospital where he has undergone further tests including a brain scan. He is conscious and his condition has improved in the last two hours.   

 

[Nalis]

5 hours ago, The Railway Man said:

 

 

Apparantly he was punched by a guy called Mike Hookam because of Woolfe claiming a few weeks ago he considered joining the Tories.

 

To top it all off, Mike HOOKam! You literally couldnt make this stuff up...

 

Hope Woolfe makes a full recovery.

 

 

[bovril]

UKIP's next party political broadcast to be a call-out video.

[foxy boxing]

i've heard of punch and judy politics but ukip are taking the punch bit a bit too literally.if they fight like this amongst themselves then what are they like around the opposition, stunts like these make them look like lunatics and idiots

[Buce]

2 hours ago, foxy boxing said:

i've heard of punch and judy politics but ukip are taking the punch bit a bit too literally.if they fight like this amongst themselves then what are they like around the opposition, stunts like these make them look like lunatics and idiots

look like.... ?

[EnderbyFox]

 

Quick tug and he's right as rain, good old Nige lending a helping hand 

[EnderbyFox]

.

[Guest MattP]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/icm-poll-tory-lead-widens-to-17-over-labour-2016-10

 

Second highest Tory lead in history. (Personally I think it's the Diane Abbott bounce)

 

Quote

 

The Conservative party's lead over Labour has widened to 17 points, according to a new ICM poll for the Guardian.

The poll puts the Conservatives on 43%, and the Labour party on 26%. The Tories' lead has increased by 2% since their annual conference at the beginning of October.

Here are the figures in full, compared to results from ICM's September poll:

Conservatives: 43% (+2%)

Labour: 26% (-2%)

UKIP: 11% (-2%)

Lib Dems: 8% (-1%)

Greens: 6% (+2%)

Political parties normally expect some bounce in the polls after a conference, as ministers make major speeches and generate favourable media coverage.

Although the Tory conference generated many negative newspaper headlines, research shows that major policy announcements made by cabinet ministers were in fact widely popular with the public.

Theresa May's plans for a "hard" Brexit and Amber Rudd's "British jobs for British workers" plans both enjoy wide support, mainly from those who voted to leave the European Union.

The Tories may also have taken some support from UKIP, whose support fell by 2%. The party was embroiled in scandal last week when two prominent MEPs from the party were involved in a serious altercation, and one was hospitalised.

A 17-point margin is the joint second highest result recorded for the Conservatives by ICM, whose polling goes back to 1992. Only once, when Gordon Brown was at his least popular in 2008, have the Conservatives enjoyed a bigger lead.

Labour's 26% figure, meanwhile, is only one point higher than their lowest ever ICM rating — the 25% they recorded in June 2008 and August 2009.

This is how Labour and the Conservatives have fared in the polls since January this year

 

 

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/icm-poll-tory-lead-widens-to-17-over-labour-2016-10

 

Second highest Tory lead in history. (Personally I think it's the Diane Abbott bounce)

 

 

 

I think it's more likely Corbyn's comments about not curbing immigration is the cause, Matt.

 

He has completely misread the public mood on that one.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

I think it's more likely Corbyn's comments about not curbing immigration is the cause, Matt.

 

He has completely misread the public mood on that one.

Possible, although Keir Starmer said yesterday on Marr he did say it had to come down. (although Diane Abbott then said that wasn't the case on the Westminster Hour)

 

I think whenever Labour does fight the next election they'll be the first party ever to not have a policy on immigration in the manifesto, they'll close their eyes to it.

[Guest MattP]

Interesting breakdown of the ICM poll for any weirdos like me who enjoy looking at this sort of stuff.

 

 

Labour now are losing among every single social class and only have a lead amongst people aged 18-24, the over 75's figures is incredible, 77% Tory to 7% Labour, I think Corbyn would even lose to Harold Shipman.

 

As many assume, the benfits of having a female leader are huge, 52% of them backing May compared to 22% backing Corbyn.

[Strokes]

37 minutes ago, MattP said:

I think Corbyn would even lose to Harold Shipman.

 

 

 im done.

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Interesting breakdown of the ICM poll for any weirdos like me who enjoy looking at this sort of stuff.

 

 

Labour now are losing among every single social class and only have a lead amongst people aged 18-24, the over 75's figures is incredible, 77% Tory to 7% Labour, I think Corbyn would even lose to Harold Shipman.

 

As many assume, the benfits of having a female leader are huge, 52% of them backing May compared to 22% backing Corbyn.

 

Interesting stuff (speaking as one of your fellow "weirdos who enjoy looking at this sort of stuff").

 

The percentages add up to much less than 100%.....UKIP, SNP/Plaid, Greens & Don't Knows, I presume?

 

The old are always much more conservative than the young, but the figure for the over-75s is incredible, as you say. It would be interesting to know exactly why that's so extraordinarily high (77% v 7%).

The Tories have been generous on pensions, but not on other stuff. Interest on savings is almost zero, the NHS and social care are in dire straits - and the Tories reneged on their election promise to limit care costs to £72k for pensioners with capital, so the elderly aren't doing as well as it might seem. Maybe partly a fear of reckless, inadequately funded policies under Corbyn? At least partly justified if so!

 

It now seems clear that the PLP civil war and Corbynite party takeover will continue, so I'm just interested to hear when and how this new "social movement" is going to start winning over non-believers. I look forward to the doorstep exchanges:

Knock! Knock! "Hello, Mr/Ms. Tory/UKIP voter, I'm from the Corbyn, I mean Labour Party, and we believe in social justice, unilateral nuclear disarmament, free immigration, £100bn of quantitative easing, countless billions of unbudgeted public spending, student grants for all, but we don't really have a view on Brexit"; "You have some good points there, lad, I'm switching from Tory/UKIP to Labour!" 

 

Seriously, any one of those Corbyn policies would be a tough sell at an election (and I support some of them). Trying to sell ALL of them would be suicidal.....and they're not even selling them, just proclaiming them!! "The Lemming Party"?!

 

If, say, they forgot about nukes for now, promised moderate spending increases on health/social care/education funded by a serious crackdown on tax avoidance, moderate quantitative easing to fund infrastructure investment/apprenticeships, extra funds & integration initiatives for areas affected by immigration, a crackdown on employers who unfairly favour lowly-paid migrants over natives and limit immigration to genuine refugees and those filling jobs that can't be filled by natives and campaigned hard for a "Soft Brexit" to protect British business, jobs and living standards.....they'd have a decent platform and would be exposing a lot of Tory weaknesses. They could even win elections in volatile times like these. Much better than utopian narcissism!

 

The Tories should probably enjoy those polls while they can. When Brexit negotiations start properly, their internal divisions will become more exposed in view of fears, turbulence and uncertainty. The Remainers may be over-egging their case a bit, but if the Govt go for a Hard Brexit, economic/social times are going to be somewhere between tough/turbulent and utterly disastrous for several years....after that, who knows? Maybe brilliant, maybe catastrophic, more likely just a bit worse than pre-Brexit. At a time like this, it is unbelievable that NO opposition party is providing credible opposition.....there's a big opportunity there for someone over the next couple of years, but nobody seems to want to grasp it.

 

[Nick]

@Alf Bentley

 

I agree, there's an opportunity out there, seemingly the largest void in British politics for some time, however I'd be inclined to think that its been there for some time. There's not been a credible party out there for me for as long as I can remember.

 

So what would this new brand of politics look like? A Centralist Party perhaps or something more radical - the Lib Dems prior to the Coalition were growing in numbers and credibility before their meteoric rise to ascendency was halted by an auction of their values over the first two years of coalition incumbency.

 

I don't really recognise UKIP as an actual serious political organisation - they are just a puppet show playing on peoples fears yet it is a concern that if they got their act together they might grow with no serious alternatives - people in this country love a protest vote, no matter what the consequences.....

 

I suppose the considerations are what values and issues have been consistently unmet by existing party approaches that would attract the dissillusioned and non voters to get to the polls motivated by a credible alternative party.....

[Guest MattP]

58 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Interesting stuff (speaking as one of your fellow "weirdos who enjoy looking at this sort of stuff").

 

The percentages add up to much less than 100%.....UKIP, SNP/Plaid, Greens & Don't Knows, I presume?

 

The old are always much more conservative than the young, but the figure for the over-75s is incredible, as you say. It would be interesting to know exactly why that's so extraordinarily high (77% v 7%).

The Tories have been generous on pensions, but not on other stuff. Interest on savings is almost zero, the NHS and social care are in dire straits - and the Tories reneged on their election promise to limit care costs to £72k for pensioners with capital, so the elderly aren't doing as well as it might seem. Maybe partly a fear of reckless, inadequately funded policies under Corbyn? At least partly justified if so!

 

It now seems clear that the PLP civil war and Corbynite party takeover will continue, so I'm just interested to hear when and how this new "social movement" is going to start winning over non-believers. I look forward to the doorstep exchanges:

Knock! Knock! "Hello, Mr/Ms. Tory/UKIP voter, I'm from the Corbyn, I mean Labour Party, and we believe in social justice, unilateral nuclear disarmament, free immigration, £100bn of quantitative easing, countless billions of unbudgeted public spending, student grants for all, but we don't really have a view on Brexit"; "You have some good points there, lad, I'm switching from Tory/UKIP to Labour!" 

 

Seriously, any one of those Corbyn policies would be a tough sell at an election (and I support some of them). Trying to sell ALL of them would be suicidal.....and they're not even selling them, just proclaiming them!! "The Lemming Party"?!

 

If, say, they forgot about nukes for now, promised moderate spending increases on health/social care/education funded by a serious crackdown on tax avoidance, moderate quantitative easing to fund infrastructure investment/apprenticeships, extra funds & integration initiatives for areas affected by immigration, a crackdown on employers who unfairly favour lowly-paid migrants over natives and limit immigration to genuine refugees and those filling jobs that can't be filled by natives and campaigned hard for a "Soft Brexit" to protect British business, jobs and living standards.....they'd have a decent platform and would be exposing a lot of Tory weaknesses. They could even win elections in volatile times like these. Much better than utopian narcissism!

 

The Tories should probably enjoy those polls while they can. When Brexit negotiations start properly, their internal divisions will become more exposed in view of fears, turbulence and uncertainty. The Remainers may be over-egging their case a bit, but if the Govt go for a Hard Brexit, economic/social times are going to be somewhere between tough/turbulent and utterly disastrous for several years....after that, who knows? Maybe brilliant, maybe catastrophic, more likely just a bit worse than pre-Brexit. At a time like this, it is unbelievable that NO opposition party is providing credible opposition.....there's a big opportunity there for someone over the next couple of years, but nobody seems to want to grasp it.

 

Yeah the other % were the minor parties, the page I took it from had chopped off the others.

 

Even I been surprised in how aggressive Corbyn has been in his new shadow cabinet after his speech two weeks ago about unity, the sacking of Rosie Winterton was a huge two fingered salute to anything and I don't think the moderates can be in any doubt now where the party is going, I can't remember who the MP was but he was right when he said Corbyn is the only politician who can use an olive branch as a political weapon, his supporters won't care though, he could tell them the sky is green and they would back him to the hilt on it. Even his former allies and people who were loyal to him like Clive Lewis have been shunted aside for not towing his line rather than the party one on Trident, I don't really know how it can continue like this and surely it's only a matter of time before another challenge to him.

 

But as we've both said before, they actually aren't bothered about winning elections, that's not what the Labour is about now. The Shami Chakrabati defence on Sunday was unreal, basically just openly admitting that she's a hypocrite but not being bothered about it.

 

I'm still struggling to believe we will be going in for as hard a Brexit as we are being led on, I think this is all posturing from both sides at the minute in preperations for the negotiations, unless May really was a closet hardcore leaver I just can't see her taking what at the minute is a harder line than Liam Fox would. But even if Brexit starts to look like a disaster, if there is no opposition people are still going to vote for the Tories.

 

A big problem for Labour is Corbyn wanted to invoke article 50 the day after the referendum (only him and Farage wanted to jump the gun that quickly) so his opposition to this isn't going to be treated with much credibility.

[Alf Bentley]

23 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

@Alf Bentley

 

I agree, there's an opportunity out there, seemingly the largest void in British politics for some time, however I'd be inclined to think that its been there for some time. There's not been a credible party out there for me for as long as I can remember.

 

So what would this new brand of politics look like? A Centralist Party perhaps or something more radical - the Lib Dems prior to the Coalition were growing in numbers and credibility before their meteoric rise to ascendency was halted by an auction of their values over the first two years of coalition incumbency.

 

I don't really recognise UKIP as an actual serious political organisation - they are just a puppet show playing on peoples fears yet it is a concern that if they got their act together they might grow with no serious alternatives - people in this country love a protest vote, no matter what the consequences.....

 

I suppose the considerations are what values and issues have been consistently unmet by existing party approaches that would attract the dissillusioned and non voters to get to the polls motivated by a credible alternative party.....

 

There have been a lot of dissatisfied punters for a long while now - dissatisfied both with their quality of life and with what's on offer from political parties.

 

However, I'd expect that void - and that opportunity - to get much, much bigger still over the next couple of years. Even if the uncertainty, turbulence and tough choices caused by Brexit negotiations and Brexit itself aren't as bad as I'm expecting, we're in for a roller-coaster ride, I think.

 

There are already a lot of people - particularly younger people - struggling to get by, with low quality of life and a lack of opportunities (living standards, housing, careers etc.). Provision for the elderly is falling apart, and public finances are under strain. And that's before we hit whatever turbulence is caused by Brexit. The Tories' current (comparative) popularity could vanish quickly if things get even tougher.....yielding even more dissatisfied, disillusioned or angry punters, thereby expanding the void.

 

As for who or what values might fill that void.....

I reckon it will need to be something offering stronger answers than the moderation of centrism. These aren't days for the likes of New Labour or the Lib Dems, I don't reckon. But I can't see radical left-wing values having much traction (even if they were properly thought through and argued for - neither of which applies to Corbyn's bunch). People are probably too frustrated and angry for idealism. I was too young to assess the seriousness of the late 70s NF upsurge. Aside from that, for the first time in my life  I can imagine the Far Right filling the void and becoming a major force. If I was a serious fascist, I'd be looking at UKIP as a vessel to take over to promote such ideas. UKIP is at a watershed and seems a bit lost. They'll still have a mission, pushing the Govt on immigration and pushing for a full Hard Brexit. But I could see that being transformed from fairly soft nationalist-populism into a properly nasty Far Right party/movement, particularly if there are serious economic problems and still a lot of foreigners in the country (which is a given, even if they do reduce immigration).

 

I had hopes for Miliband to build something worthwhile: significant change to improve lives, not too wild like Corbyn and not too cautious like New Labour. Unfortunately, he offered too little sustained vision and too many ill-connected gimmicks.

 

As for unmet values.....more hope/opportunity, more security, noticeable (but not necessarily massive) reductions in stress and improvements in quality of life, giving younger/middle-aged people the idea that "things should be OK, at least - and there's some hope they could be good"? For the elderly, financial security and expectations of decent healthcare/social care - and opportunities for children/grandchildren? A "Radical Security and Opportunity Party"? 

[Alf Bentley]

27 minutes ago, MattP said:

I'm still struggling to believe we will be going in for as hard a Brexit as we are being led on, I think this is all posturing from both sides at the minute in preperations for the negotiations, unless May really was a closet hardcore leaver I just can't see her taking what at the minute is a harder line than Liam Fox would.

 

I'd wondered about that. I hope you're right. There's a massive difference between the implications of Soft Brexit and the sort of Hard Brexit being debated.

[Nick]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

There have been a lot of dissatisfied punters for a long while now - dissatisfied both with their quality of life and with what's on offer from political parties.

 

However, I'd expect that void - and that opportunity - to get much, much bigger still over the next couple of years. Even if the uncertainty, turbulence and tough choices caused by Brexit negotiations and Brexit itself aren't as bad as I'm expecting, we're in for a roller-coaster ride, I think.

 

There are already a lot of people - particularly younger people - struggling to get by, with low quality of life and a lack of opportunities (living standards, housing, careers etc.). Provision for the elderly is falling apart, and public finances are under strain. And that's before we hit whatever turbulence is caused by Brexit. The Tories' current (comparative) popularity could vanish quickly if things get even tougher.....yielding even more dissatisfied, disillusioned or angry punters, thereby expanding the void.

 

As for who or what values might fill that void.....

I reckon it will need to be something offering stronger answers than the moderation of centrism. These aren't days for the likes of New Labour or the Lib Dems, I don't reckon. But I can't see radical left-wing values having much traction (even if they were properly thought through and argued for - neither of which applies to Corbyn's bunch). People are probably too frustrated and angry for idealism. I was too young to assess the seriousness of the late 70s NF upsurge. Aside from that, for the first time in my life  I can imagine the Far Right filling the void and becoming a major force. If I was a serious fascist, I'd be looking at UKIP as a vessel to take over to promote such ideas. UKIP is at a watershed and seems a bit lost. They'll still have a mission, pushing the Govt on immigration and pushing for a full Hard Brexit. But I could see that being transformed from fairly soft nationalist-populism into a properly nasty Far Right party/movement, particularly if there are serious economic problems and still a lot of foreigners in the country (which is a given, even if they do reduce immigration).

 

I had hopes for Miliband to build something worthwhile: significant change to improve lives, not too wild like Corbyn and not too cautious like New Labour. Unfortunately, he offered too little sustained vision and too many ill-connected gimmicks.

 

As for unmet values.....more hope/opportunity, more security, noticeable (but not necessarily massive) reductions in stress and improvements in quality of life, giving younger/middle-aged people the idea that "things should be OK, at least - and there's some hope they could be good"? For the elderly, financial security and expectations of decent healthcare/social care - and opportunities for children/grandchildren? A "Radical Security and Opportunity Party"? 

 

I don't think the country (or the British Security Services for that matter) will tolerate a far right rise.

 

As for Miliband, people follow strength, confidence and charisma - so that was never going to be a go'er. 

 

I think centralism is probably the battleground - its not sexy but its where there is arguably the most scope to take votes from all existing parties.

[Webbo]

Not sure this would make a good thread so I'll put it in here instead.

 

Your life in numbers

 

Basically type in where and when you were born and you can see how much life has improved in your lifetime. You can compare it to other countries as well.

[davieG]

59 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Not sure this would make a good thread so I'll put it in here instead.

 

Your life in numbers

 

Basically type in where and when you were born and you can see how much life has improved in your lifetime. You can compare it to other countries as well.

Ageist it only goes back to 1960

[Webbo]

7 minutes ago, davieG said:

Ageist it only goes back to 1960

You should be in with a couple of years to spare Davie. 

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Swan Lesta said:

 

I don't think the country (or the British Security Services for that matter) will tolerate a far right rise.

 

As for Miliband, people follow strength, confidence and charisma - so that was never going to be a go'er. 

 

I think centralism is probably the battleground - its not sexy but its where there is arguably the most scope to take votes from all existing parties.

 

Although I'd like to see something more socially transformational, I'd settle for centrist politics, because I think we could be heading for something much more turbulent.

 

All over the West established centrist parties are hanging on by their fingernails and there has been a big surge in support for more radical, populist parties and movements, sometimes on the left, sometimes on the right:

Tea Party/Trump in the US; UKIP/Brexit/Corbyn/SNP in the UK; Le Pen in France; AfD in Germany; Syriza in Greece; Podemos in Spain. I know that politics is normally played out in the centre ground, but I reckon the current era could be one of those exceptional times - like the 1930s - when people get so frustrated or angry that moderate solutions lose their appeal and a lot more people are attracted to more populist, radical or extremist "solutions", if we're not very careful.

 

In the UK, overall living standards, prospects and opportunities have been stagnant or declining for many people since about 2008 (and not that wonderful for many before that). Maybe the carefully calibrated moderate compromises of centrism don't appeal to so many people just now. In different ways, the rise of the SNP and UKIP, the Brexit vote and 500,000 signing up to Corbynism show that a lot of people are pissed off and want serious, rapid change, not the usual moderation, surely? The dissatisfaction and appetite for instant radical change could be a lot greater if Brexit uncertainties or realities cause turbulence.

 

I'm quite glad we currently only have UKIP, a relatively moderate right-wing nationalist-populist party - and Farage, a man who enjoys being liked, and not some charismatic, hate-filled demagogue. It could become a lot worse. Probably not goose-stepping stormtroopers or anything that extreme, but if times get worse then a surge in support for views akin to the BNP wouldn't surprise me, with a minority indulging in hostility/violence to foreigners or perceived "foreigners". I bet a lot of people in Germany thought that Germany wouldn't "tolerate a far right rise" before the 1930s.....

 

I hope that I'm wrong and you're right. I'd settle for an Umunna, Clegg & Ken Clarke coalition right now.