President Trump & the USA

[leicsmac]

Early doors, but it's actually looking like the pollsters predicted for this one - Dems take the house by a reasonable margin, Repubs hold the Senate by one or two as it is now.

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

Early doors, but it's actually looking like the pollsters predicted for this one - Dems take the house by a reasonable margin, Repubs hold the Senate by one or two as it is now.

Done their job this time the pollsters. 

[leicsmac]

An interesting observation on the fivethirtyeight live feed:

 

"I’m having a bit of a flashback to about this time two years ago, when I remember saying on the live blog that more than anything, the election is reflecting just how divided we are — urban, rural, rich, poor, different education levels. That gulf continues to grow."

 

I wonder if such polarisation can be healed, and if so, how. A house divided cannot for long stand.

 

[UPinCarolina]

37 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

An interesting observation on the fivethirtyeight live feed:

 

"I’m having a bit of a flashback to about this time two years ago, when I remember saying on the live blog that more than anything, the election is reflecting just how divided we are — urban, rural, rich, poor, different education levels. That gulf continues to grow."

 

I wonder if such polarisation can be healed, and if so, how. A house divided cannot for long stand.

 

Well, when 150,000 voters in North Dakota have as much power as 15 - 18,000,000 in California - things will not improve in the Senate. 

 

Especially given that it only exists in that form because they wanted to placate slave owning states back in the 1780s ??‍♂️

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, UPinCarolina said:

Well, when 150,000 voters in North Dakota have as much power as 15 - 18,000,000 in California - things will not improve in the Senate. 

 

Especially given that it only exists in that form because they wanted to placate slave owning states back in the 1780s ??‍♂️

Problem is, that's the only reason this incredible mix of people and cultures can exist as one nation.

[Jattdogg]

4 hours ago, MattP said:

Problem is, that's the only reason this incredible mix of people and cultures can exist as one nation.

The thing is they cant exist as one nation under 2 very distinct parties. Clearly a massive divide. To me, If you want real change you make voting representative of the population. Out of this change will come. It could spell the end of the republican party but it would also have a similar effect on the dems because no person is true 100% democrat or republican. They need more "parties" with central ideas.  If that doesnt work then carve up the USA.

 

I'd say then can join Canada but no thanks lol.

[Guest MattP]

Time for a bit of kip but a few observations.

No real winner/impeachment of Trump now impossible.

The Republicans will be happy to keep the Senate (an increased majority surely means Trump now safe for two years), the Democrats will have been happy to take the house.

Result of this is going to the same as Obama's last two years, barely any policy getting through - I hope the Democrats use this constructively to debate policy rather than use it to attack Trump, already the signs are that they wont if the rumours about demanding his tax returns rather tnan engaging in policy, don't expect the Republicans to try and work together on anything, too many bridges burnt after Kavanaugh and they'll want the Democrats to be seen as causing chaos.

Trump can't win 2020 easy.

 

If he does win again it's going to be another tight one, he isn't ever going to rack up masses of votes like Clinton, Bush or Obama

 

Rust Belt voters didn't seem to come out for him in anything like the numbers again so the financial benefits can't be reaching the areas he needs them to - expect some absolutely giveaway financial and economic policy to those people in the months before the next election.

Democrats need a plan to win in 2020, stand alone anti-Trump vote can't win.

 

After two years of shouting about how dreadful this is going to be and how evil and crazy Trump is, the Democrats still couldn't win in places they will need to if they are retake the Whitehouse, Florida went to the Republicans when it was supposed to go Democrat and Indiana was also a bit of a surprise.

Positives were claiming back a lot of the vote on the rust belt but another middle class, posh left leaning leader like Clinton could be a disaster if they want to keep it, likely that finance will play a bigger role in a Presidential election than the midterms.

They need a proper leader and a proper plan to win in 2020, they are going to need to somehow balance the issue of healthcare and taxation without hurting the economic boom and sell it to the voters as realistic - if it's two more years of identity politics, anti-white men protests and complaining about everything Trump does they'll lose again and it will be fully deserved.
 

The Division in Society

Already touched on but the gap in society is getting bigger in what is now becoming a cultural war - I watched a bit of both CNN and Fox last night and both channels are unwatchable, both so far towards one side of the debate they can't report impartially anymore, in fairness to Fox they've never really tried to pass themselves off as such but CNN was a great channel ten years ago, I never thought I'd say thank god for the BBC!

The insults need to stop as well, the Democrats shouldn't call call Trump voters thick when they elect someone as wacky as Osario-Cortez to the House and the Republicans need to realise you don't have to be a tubthumping flag waver singing "USA" to be a patriot and want the best for your country, the opposite side just feels a very different to how you do about what the best is for the immediate future of their own nation.

Edited 7 November 2018 by MattP

[UPinCarolina]

7 hours ago, MattP said:

Problem is, that's the only reason this incredible mix of people and cultures can exist as one nation.

The Electoral College system that results from the Senate/House system basically delegitimizes huge numbers of presidential votes, essentially ensuring that the middle of the country will always have a hugely outsized influence on the executive. 

 

Ranked voting or PR to break the two party system on some level (probably starting at the state house / senate) is the best way forward, IMO - since you’ll never get rid of the EC and you need to somehow remedy the massive flaws in the system.

Edited 7 November 2018 by UPinCarolina

[leicsmac]

One interesting result of this is that there is quite a bit more diverse representation in the House than there was before.

[urban.spaceman]

46 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

One interesting result of this is that there is quite a bit more diverse representation in the House than there was before.

Indeed, I’m particularly thrilled that the deceased are finally getting the representation they’ve been craving all these years.

I mean, imagine your politics being so shite you’d lose to someone who’s currently dead!

[leicsmac]

6 minutes ago, urban.spaceman said:

Indeed, I’m particularly thrilled that the deceased are finally getting the representation they’ve been craving all these years.

I mean, imagine your politics being so shite you’d lose to someone who’s currently dead!

That's odd - normally it's the Dems being better represented among and for the dead.

[purpleronnie]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

One interesting result of this is that there is quite a bit more diverse representation in the House than there was before.

Definitely the highlight for me.

[Guest MattP]

16 minutes ago, purpleronnie said:

Definitely the highlight for me.

Here's one of them, great. 

 

[purpleronnie]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

Here's one of them, great. 

 

Well I understand you'd hate anyone elected who wasn't a white male with no views different to your own.

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, purpleronnie said:

Well I understand you'd hate anyone elected who wasn't a white male with no views different to your own.

What?

 

I backed Ben Carson or Marco Rubio in the original US presidential race and my next choice of Tory leader at this point in time would be Sajid Javed or James Cleverly.

 

I couldn't care less what colour someone is, which is exactly why I wouldn't just celebrate them being elected to the house based on that even if they held views as cranky as the person I mentioned. 

[urban.spaceman]

4 hours ago, MattP said:

What?

 

I backed Ben Carson or Marco Rubio in the original US presidential race and my next choice of Tory leader at this point in time would be Sajid Javed or James Cleverly.

 

I couldn't care less what colour someone is, which is exactly why I wouldn't just celebrate them being elected to the house based on that even if they held views as cranky as the person I mentioned. 

That’s even more racist than caring what colour someone is. At least acknowledge their colour Matt! Racist!

Edited 7 November 2018 by urban.spaceman

[purpleronnie]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

What?

 

I backed Ben Carson or Marco Rubio in the original US presidential race and my next choice of Tory leader at this point in time would be Sajid Javed or James Cleverly.

 

I couldn't care less what colour someone is, which is exactly why I wouldn't just celebrate them being elected to the house based on that even if they held views as cranky as the person I mentioned. 

[EnderbyFox]

 

[FoxNotFox]

5 hours ago, urban.spaceman said:

 

 

Quote

I mean, imagine your politics being so shite you’d lose to someone who’s currently dead!

"currently" ??

 

Why, is it a  situation that's likely to change

Edited 7 November 2018 by FoxNotFox

[urban.spaceman]

2 minutes ago, FoxNotFox said:

 

"currently" ??

 

Why, is it a  situation that's likely to change

Should ****ing hope so, he’s got a job to do. Bloody layabout. 

[urban.spaceman]

Sessions have been fired...

[Detroit Blues]

Sessions is the first domino to fall. It will be interesting to see if the new AG fires Rosenstein and/or Mueller to limit the investigation. Nothing like blatant obstruction of justice from the commander and chief. 

[SMX11]

7 hours ago, UPinCarolina said:

The Electoral College system that results from the Senate/House system basically delegitimizes huge numbers of presidential votes, essentially ensuring that the middle of the country will always have a hugely outsized influence on the executive. 

 

Ranked voting or PR to break the two party system on some level (probably starting at the state house / senate) is the best way forward, IMO - since you’ll never get rid of the EC and you need to somehow remedy the massive flaws in the system.

Why should elections be decided in New York and California? It was deliberately designed to stop the tyranny of the majority.

[Lionator]

1 hour ago, Detroit Blues said:

Sessions is the first domino to fall. It will be interesting to see if the new AG fires Rosenstein and/or Mueller to limit the investigation. Nothing like blatant obstruction of justice from the commander and chief. 

Surely firing Mueller would be the most obvious confession of guilt going? I can imagine a small amount of Republicans could be tempted to flip and try to get him impeached so he's out of the way before 2020. 

[UPinCarolina]

1 hour ago, SMX11 said:

Why should elections be decided in New York and California? It was deliberately designed to stop the tyranny of the majority.

The entire system was originally designed and intended to placate the American South over the issue of slavery in conjunction with the 3/5 compromise. 

 

It has now resulted inreasingly in a tyranny of the minority. Which is largely how it functioned before thr 1840s.  We all know where that went - Civil War. 

 

Example: Wyoming has 500-540,000 people and 3 electoral votes. Each electoral vote represents roughly 170,000 people. Do the math for California, Texas, etc - it’s not sustainable to have a minority majority in the Senate and increasingly in the executive branch. 

Edited 7 November 2018 by UPinCarolina