President Trump & the USA

[leicsmac]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/03/magazine/FBI-charlottesville-white-nationalism-far-right.html

 

If you're "condemning" this, Mr Trump, perhaps you might press law enforcement to now take it seriously?

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46095378

 

Goodness only knows how it's all going to turn out come Wednesday morning, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be interesting.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46090014\

 

Just another lone nutjob, not at all emboldened or energised by talks with like-minded folks on the Internet and the current political climate at all, and definitely not part of a larger ideological network sharing the same belief who communicate with each other. No need to panic.

Edited 5 November 2018 by leicsmac

[Detroit Blues]

The amount of political advertisements is too damn high. Non-stop political attack ads on TV, 4-5 ads PER DAY in the mail, automated text messages and phone calls, and maybe once or twice a week someone will actually knock on my door. I somewhat enjoy politics, but it will be a relief when this thing is over tomorrow.

 

I am interested to see how our local ballot proposals fair in the election. Michigan has 3 proposals: recreational marijuana legalization, a non-partisan committee to re-draw the previously gerrymandered districts, and universal absentee ballot voting rights. 

 

 

[MC Prussian]

23 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46095378

 

Goodness only knows how it's all going to turn out come Wednesday morning, but I'm pretty sure it's going to be interesting.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46090014\

 

Just another lone nutjob, not at all emboldened or energised by talks with like-minded folks on the Internet and the current political climate at all, and definitely not part of a larger ideological network sharing the same belief who communicate with each other. No need to panic.

I'd say the current political climate and some of the intimidation measures are part of a "movement" that has had years to prosper, and thus I find it hard to blame it on the Republicans and/or Trump alone. Some of it, if not most of it developed during the Bush reign, then continued during the Obama administration.

 

What you could argue is that the current POTUSA - thanks to his populism and way of addressing issues in public - has acted or is acting as a valve for some of these nutjobs. Now they feel they have a voice or a better reason to commit their heinous acts, more than ever.

However, you'd be hard-pressed to find fewer examples of extremists in the USA in recent years or decades. Remember Timothy McVeigh? The WTC bombing in 1993? The Waco Siege? That was all under Clinton. The country is so big, the population ever-growing that it's only natural that you'd get the "rough" with the "smooth" also.

 

Let's not forget that the internet has done its job also. It's much easier now to get the information you need or find like-minded people online.

Edited 6 November 2018 by MC Prussian

[Jattdogg]

America is dead right now.  The far right and far left are nut jobs and the country needs to come closer to the middle to save itself.

 

That wont happen until trump leaves office in 2 or 6 years from now. Refill your popcorn, load up the 3L colas. Lol

[leicsmac]

36 minutes ago, MC Prussian said:

I'd say the current political climate and some of the intimidation measures are part of a "movement" that has had years to prosper, and thus I find it hard to blame it on the Republicans and/or Trump alone. Some of it, if not most of it developed during the Bush reign, then continued during the Obama administration.

 

What you could argue is that the current POTUSA - thanks to his populism and way of addressing issues in public - has acted or is acting as a valve for some of these nutjobs. Now they feel they have a voice or a better reason to commit their heinous acts, more than ever.

However, you'd be hard-pressed to find fewer examples of extremists in the USA in recent years or decades. Remember Timothy McVeigh? The WTC bombing in 1993? The Waco Siege? That was all under Clinton. The country is so big, the population ever-growing that it's only natural that you'd get the "rough" with the "smooth" also.

 

Let's not forget that the internet has done its job also. It's much easier now to get the information you need or find like-minded people online.

That's a fair argument, especially the last part - the Internet, for all the good it has done for society, has also allowed myriad groups of folks with ill intent to communicate and coordinate.

 

TBH for me the big moment for it all was when Obama was elected and you could see that some folks in the US simply would not accept the idea of a black President - not then or ever. That feeling of inherent superiority, of wanting to put those "beneath" you in their place, has mutated and taken on a life of its own and this current administration is acting as a valve, as you say.

[leicsmac]

Alright then...predictions might be a little stupid on this one but I feel compelled to stick my neck out anyway, given that it's all happening today.

 

I'll go for...Dem majority of around 15-20 in the House and the Senate staying where it is (51-49 to the Repubs).

 

If anyone else wants to weigh in, I'd be interested.

[Jattdogg]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Alright then...predictions might be a little stupid on this one but I feel compelled to stick my neck out anyway, given that it's all happening today.

 

I'll go for...Dem majority of around 15-20 in the House and the Senate staying where it is (51-49 to the Repubs).

 

If anyone else wants to weigh in, I'd be interested.

Dem majority in house by 5.

 

Senate stays the same as you mentioned

 

[Alf Bentley]

Anybody else thinking of sitting up to watch any of tonight's US election coverage?

 

Can see myself sat in front of BBC News coverage for a few hours.

Call me a weirdo, but I love election night TV: part suspense-filled entertainment like sport, partly educational - better understanding a country, its people, society, politics, values - and there are few countries more fascinating than the USA.

 

This feels like a big election for the US and the world, though how different outcomes will pan out is far from clear.

Is Trump more dangerous to the world if the Republicans hold both houses of Congress, giving him at least 2 more years with free rein to do whatever he wants (especially with conservative control of the Supreme Court)?

Or, given his narcissistic rejection of opposition or compromise, is he more dangerous if the Democrats win at least the House, so that he finds his policies being blocked and impeachment/investigations progressing against him?

 

I hear that turnout is expected to be high. I have a nasty feeling, speaking from a position of ignorance about US politics, that this may be good news for Trump. In the UK, high turnout always used to be seen as good for Labour - because it meant that the working class had turned out. Ain't that simple now. Both in the US Presidential election and in the Brexit referendum, a high turnout among groups who usually didn't vote in vast numbers contributed to Trump and Brexit....

Though maybe Trump's record will encourage a higher turnout among disgusted black voters, compared to low turnout for Hilary. It also sounds as if there are a fair few traditional, moderate conservatives who normally vote Republican but hate Trump, even if Trump's base vote among the discontented is also pretty fired up to support him....

 

 

[UPinCarolina]

From a U.S. perspective, high voter turnout generally tends to favor the Democrats. The groups who usually don't turn out are (perversely, as it matters most for them) certain ethnic and racial minorities and youth voters. Both groups seem to be highly motivated this year, especially as the Republicans seem to have fully capitulated to Trumpism.

Hearing on NPR this morning that based on early voting numbers we might be looking at the highest midterm election turnout in 50 years.

Edited 6 November 2018 by UPinCarolina

[Izzy]

18 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Call me a weirdo, but I love election night TV

 

You weirdo 

[Alf Bentley]

14 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

You weirdo 

[Alf Bentley]

30 minutes ago, UPinCarolina said:

From a U.S. perspective, high voter turnout generally tends to favor the Democrats. The groups who usually don't turn out are (perversely, as it matters most for them) certain ethnic and racial minorities and youth voters. Both groups seem to be highly motivated this year, especially as the Republicans seem to have fully capitulated to Trumpism.

Hearing on NPR this morning that based on early voting numbers we might be looking at the highest midterm election turnout in 50 years.

 

I hope you're right - and you should know better than me, obviously. Would love to get a nice surprise and to see Trump take an unexpected electoral kicking.

 

I was going to cite the fact that unexpectedly high turnout by working-class white voters outside big cities helped Trump win several rust belt states in 2016, and therefore the presidency......

But, on the other hand, an unexpectedly big youth vote in the 2017 UK election helped Corbyn to eliminate the Tory majority, so depends which groups are most motivated, I suppose.  

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I hope you're right - and you should know better than me, obviously. Would love to get a nice surprise and to see Trump take an unexpected electoral kicking.

 

I was going to cite the fact that unexpectedly high turnout by working-class white voters outside big cities helped Trump win several rust belt states in 2016, and therefore the presidency......

But, on the other hand, an unexpectedly big youth vote in the 2017 UK election helped Corbyn to eliminate the Tory majority, so depends which groups are most motivated, I suppose.  

 

That's what it comes down to...but as a general rule of thumb in the US, a higher general turnout does tend to mean what UpInC above said. I mean, Trump won in 2016 despite having less votes overall than either Romney or McCain before him, due to reduced turnout.

Edited 6 November 2018 by leicsmac

[Jattdogg]

3 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Call me a weirdo, but I love erection night TV: part suspense-filled entertainment like sport, partly educational 

 

 

Love porn too. Always leads to an erection.

[The Doctor]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

TBH for me the big moment for it all was when Obama was elected and you could see that some folks in the US simply would not accept the idea of a black President - not then or ever. That feeling of inherent superiority, of wanting to put those "beneath" you in their place, has mutated and taken on a life of its own and this current administration is acting as a valve, as you say.

Hence why a birther who'd ran before and finished nowhere in the primaries got rallied behind by a chunk of the party's grassroots...

[Claridge]

Not sure why anyone who voted Trump last time wouldn't vote for him again. The economic news might persuade people to back him when they didn't believe him and his promises on the economy in 2016.

I think he will retain control of both houses. If the Democrats win the House only by a few votes ,but lose more in the Senate,then it will be a victory.

 

Bit like Man Utd or any of the top 4 winning the Carabbo cup. Happy but hardly enthralled. Win both and it's LCFC 2016 time

[Guest MattP]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Anybody else thinking of sitting up to watch any of tonight's US election coverage?

 

Can see myself sat in front of BBC News coverage for a few hours.

Call me a weirdo, but I love election night TV: part suspense-filled entertainment like sport, partly educational - better understanding a country, its people, society, politics, values - and there are few countries more fascinating than the USA.

I love it, alarm will be set for about 2am I think for tonight - very disappointed Andrew Neil isn't doing the Beeb - it was brilliantly neutral with him and Katty Kay in 2016 and that is absolutely impossible to find with the other American channels. 

 

Turnout should be high, when it's a polarising decision it always is, Trump should have an even larger base now with the economic success of the country but surely all those who disapprove strongly will also be coming out to vote against him.

 

It looks as the GOP will hold onto the Senate and the Dems will take the house. Never take anything for granted now.

[Guest MattP]

5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Alright then...predictions might be a little stupid on this one but I feel compelled to stick my neck out anyway, given that it's all happening today.

 

I'll go for...Dem majority of around 15-20 in the House and the Senate staying where it is (51-49 to the Repubs).

 

If anyone else wants to weigh in, I'd be interested.

Exactly where I am, probably as we've both been on fivethirtyeight

[lifted*fox]

i just hope that the result in this mid-term shows that the world hasn't completely lost it's marbles and that we can start on a path back towards having a better politician and a better person back in charge by 2020.

 

Trump's presidency and his hateful rhetoric and behaviour has lowered the bar considerably for the way in which politicians across the civilised world think they can act.

[Guest MattP]

4 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

I hope you're right - and you should know better than me, obviously. Would love to get a nice surprise and to see Trump take an unexpected electoral kicking.

I'd like to see them both take a kicking if that's possible.

 

Trump demeans his office more than any President of the US and the language used at times is totally unforgivable.

 

The Democrats often aren't much better and I wouldnt want to see them rewarded with the way they have played identity politics over the last few months, they still seem to have no interest in their own voters and seem to have a niche core of middle class liberals that thinks they know what is best for everybody.

 

I still think I was right to say I wouldn't have voted for Trump even with the economic success and what I thought was critical in keeping the US out of conflict but I'm still not surprised many middle Americans found his silly impulsive lies were more trustworthy than Clinton's carefully scripted idealogical lies. 

 

Whatever happens both parties should be looking for better candidates in the future.

[Guest MattP]

6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

TBH for me the big moment for it all was when Obama was elected and you could see that some folks in the US simply would not accept the idea of a black President - not then or ever.

You are certainly right on this but many Democrats and their supporters aren't much better.

 

Lots of them have never accepted the result of the vote in 2016 and ever since then have been trying to reverse it by whatever means, in hindsight some of the calls for impeachment were absolutely laughable and the attempt at railroading due process during the Kavanaugh comfirmation was terrible.

 

They might not have been as obvious as the ones shouting about a birth certificate but the opposite to democracy and the constitution was exactly the same.

Edited 6 November 2018 by MattP

[EnderbyFox]

9 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

Anybody else thinking of sitting up to watch any of tonight's US election coverage?

 

Can see myself sat in front of BBC News coverage for a few hours.

Call me a weirdo, but I love election night TV: part suspense-filled entertainment like sport, partly educational - better understanding a country, its people, society, politics, values - and there are few countries more fascinating than the USA.

 

This feels like a big election for the US and the world, though how different outcomes will pan out is far from clear.

Is Trump more dangerous to the world if the Republicans hold both houses of Congress, giving him at least 2 more years with free rein to do whatever he wants (especially with conservative control of the Supreme Court)?

Or, given his narcissistic rejection of opposition or compromise, is he more dangerous if the Democrats win at least the House, so that he finds his policies being blocked and impeachment/investigations progressing against him?

 

I hear that turnout is expected to be high. I have a nasty feeling, speaking from a position of ignorance about US politics, that this may be good news for Trump. In the UK, high turnout always used to be seen as good for Labour - because it meant that the working class had turned out. Ain't that simple now. Both in the US Presidential election and in the Brexit referendum, a high turnout among groups who usually didn't vote in vast numbers contributed to Trump and Brexit....

Though maybe Trump's record will encourage a higher turnout among disgusted black voters, compared to low turnout for Hilary. It also sounds as if there are a fair few traditional, moderate conservatives who normally vote Republican but hate Trump, even if Trump's base vote among the discontented is also pretty fired up to support him....

 

 

 

Love Election night coverage. Just checked and the BBC aren't doing a show this time around, disappointing. 

 

CNN has a livestream here though if you're struggling: https://www.livenewson.com/american/cnn-news-usa.html

 

Edited 6 November 2018 by EnderbyFox

[Alf Bentley]

1 hour ago, EnderbyFox said:

 

Love Election night coverage. Just checked and the BBC aren't doing a show this time around, disappointing. 

 

CNN has a livestream here though if you're struggling: https://www.livenewson.com/american/cnn-news-usa.html

 

 

Thanks for the link. The BBC News channel also has coverage.

[leicsmac]

7 hours ago, MattP said:

Exactly where I am, probably as we've both been on fivethirtyeight

Yeah, it's the statistically safe bet.

 

6 hours ago, MattP said:

You are certainly right on this but many Democrats and their supporters aren't much better.

 

Lots of them have never accepted the result of the vote in 2016 and ever since then have been trying to reverse it by whatever means, in hindsight some of the calls for impeachment were absolutely laughable and the attempt at railroading due process during the Kavanaugh comfirmation was terrible.

 

They might not have been as obvious as the ones shouting about a birth certificate but the opposite to democracy and the constitution was exactly the same.

Yeah, I'd agree that until Mueller comes up with something concrete (and he's still working) then impeachment isn't something that need be discussed and that the Kauvanagh thing ended up actually being likely counterproductive.

 

At the end of it all, I'd settle for an administration - any administration, no matter what name they give themselves - who are actually interested in civil rights for all and take scientific and environmental issues seriously and are not in hock to the fossil fuel companies and the fundie Bible-thumpers. (And I don't say that because I have anything against either of those organisations personally, but rather because neither of them are conducive to a good future for all humanity).