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DJ Barry Hammond

Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

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15 hours ago, Buce said:

Multi-Billionaire who sues the NHS and has been accused of sexual assault on numerous occasions takes the moral highground over a newspaper.

 

We can't be far off peak insanity yet.

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1 minute ago, MattP said:

Multi-Billionaire who sues the NHS and has been accused of sexual assault on numerous occasions takes the moral highground over a newspaper.

 

We can't be far off peak insanity yet.

 

Who? Branson?

 

Tell me more...

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A private business can sell whatever products they want.

 

The faux outrage from the right is ridiculous, we've even had Nigel Farage describing it as "dangerous".

 

This is a man who boycotted the BBC because he didn't like their coverage, the hypocrisy is staggering and it's no wonder the ugly far right are now almost totally irrelevant in UK politics.

Edited by Rogstanley
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It's not like you're banned from reading it on the trains. They just aren't selling it. They probably don't sell mayfair either. It's just a product. A product that spreads hatred.

Edited by Guest
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1 hour ago, Sharpe's Fox said:

Tim Farron is a genius. To get 7% of the UK population to vote for a party led by an open homophobe takes some doing.

He completely misplayed his hand.  If he’d have come out (parden the pun) straight away and said that’s what he thought but at the same time, emphasised his voting record to show his ability to seperate his personal view from his political one, he’d have got a lot more than 7%.

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Fantastic, I've wondered for ages when somebody would test their legal responsibility for the damage they've caused. In the same way as cigarette manufacturers were in the past. 

 

New York City plans to divest $5bn from fossil fuels and sue oil companies

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/10/new-york-city-plans-to-divest-5bn-from-fossil-fuels-and-sue-oil-companies?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

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1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

Report says Britain could lose half a million jobs with 'no deal' on Brexit:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/brexit-uk-could-lose-half-a-million-jobs-with-no-deal-says-sadiq-khan

 

I assume that will just be dismissed as more "Project Fear". The mistrust of politicians on every side is probably so great now that only actual job losses on a large scale (or a prospective bad deal) would change many minds.

 

Meanwhile, Farage is advocating a second referendum?! http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-nigel-farage-second-referendum-eu-membership-wright-stuff-video-ukip-maybe-leader-a8153106.html

I presume he's just getting impatient, is he? As I understand it, he's advocating another identical referendum to last time, not a referendum on the negotiated terms for Brexit.

 

I have to laugh at his comment that "the Cleggs, Blairs and Adonises will never give up, they'll go on whingeing and whining and moaning".

He led a party largely devoted to Brexit and "whinged, whined and moaned" about the status quo of membership for how long? 20 years? Yet he thinks his opponents should cease expressing their views as soon as the status quo favours him?!

(For the record, I've never objected in the slightest to Farage or anyone else advocating Brexit down the years and decades. They're absolutely entitled to campaign for their preferred policies and always will be).

Edited by Alf Bentley
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3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I assume that will just be dismissed as more "Project Fear". The mistrust of politicians on every side is probably so great now that only actual job losses on a large scale (or a prospective bad deal) would change many minds.

 

Meanwhile, Farage is advocating a second referendum?! http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-nigel-farage-second-referendum-eu-membership-wright-stuff-video-ukip-maybe-leader-a8153106.html

I presume he's just getting impatient, is he? As I understand it, he's advocating another identical referendum to last time, not a referendum on the negotiated terms for Brexit.

 

I have to laugh at his comment that "the Cleggs, Blairs and Adonises will never give up, they'll go on whingeing and whining and moaning".

He led a party largely devoted to Brexit and "whinged, whined and moaned" about the status quo of memvictory for Remain and common sense.bership for how long? 20 years? Yet he thinks his opponents should cease expressing their views as soon as the status quo favours him?!

(For the record, I've never objected in the slightest to Farage or anyone else advocating Brexit down the years and decades. They're absolutely entitled to campaign for their preferred policies and always will be).

 

Khan only commissioned the study, so mistrust of politicians in this instance would be a case of blaming the messenger for the message.

 

Regarding a second referendum, I think Farage is way wide of the mark in thinking that the result would be more emphatic than before - I think it would result in a victory for Remain and common sense. Bring it on.

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1 hour ago, Buce said:

 

Report says Britain could lose half a million jobs with 'no deal' on Brexit:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/brexit-uk-could-lose-half-a-million-jobs-with-no-deal-says-sadiq-khan

Would be nice to view the assumptions made in this report before totally lambasting it as fake news, but, I suspect it was made to get a headline figure like Osbourne in the referendum rather than rigourous analysis.

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2 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Khan only commissioned the study, so mistrust of politicians in this instance would be a case of blaming the messenger for the message.

 

Regarding a second referendum, I think Farage is way wide of the mark in thinking that the result would be more emphatic than before - I think it would result in a victory for Remain and common sense. Bring it on.

 

I'm sure you're right about Khan's study, but he's known to be very pro-Remain and many of the "Project Fear" studies before the referendum were produced by supposedly non-partisan institutions.

Personally, my guess is that the impact of a no-deal Brexit could be a lot worse than suggested in Khan's message. But people are so cynical about politicians now that most people won't trust what they say without seeing clear evidence with their own eyes - particularly if they opposed the views expressed in the first place.

 

If a second referendum were held now, I suspect that it would be very close again (as well as horrendously bitter and nasty) and that Leave might win again. Even a lot of people who voted Remain last time or who have come to question the wisdom of Brexit might vote Leave because that was the democratic vote last time and they see no clear reason to change it. Whereas, within a year, if there are significant job losses and/or only a bad deal on the table, they might well vote to reject the terms of the deal in a second referendum. That might be Farage's thinking: that he'd stand a much better chance of winning a referendum now than he would in a year's time... 

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Problem with these reports is the same as when it was George Osborne doing them for the treasury, if you ask the right questions with the right figures you'll get the results you want to deliver, that's why his predictions for the immediate aftermath were totally wrong, they used their own forecasts to get there which were wide of the mark, as SMX says I'd like to see what they asked to come to a proper conclusion.

 

(Although half a million jobs lost in the event of no-deal certainly seems more realistic than the 3million we were told pre-referendum) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/over-three-million-jobs-at-risk-if-britain-leaves-eu-claims-treasury-report-9561108.html

 

Farage must have lost his marbles (or be skint and need his EU salary) to be calling for a second referendum at this stage, right after a breakthrough and we are set to move onto trade talks (which will be in the hands of specialists rather than the government as well which is a good thing) he does this, the bloke has zero compromise whatsoever and I think his hatred of the Tories is starting to cloud his judgement on this, use a bit of common sense, wait until you see what the final deal is and then make up your mind, doing anything to incentivise the EU into making a worse deal for us isn't the actions of someone who is supposed to be doing what is right for his country.

 

Even more irresponsible to do it today as well when it's being reported a deal is nearly done for the banking industry to have full access to the single market, a key part of making sure the economy remains stable - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-signals-fresh-hope-for-banks-after-brexit-7bk380tqs

 

Let the Blair/Adonis/Clegg's scream all they like to the BBC, Guardian and Mail on Sunday, their time at the front of politics is long gone and it isn't coming back. He should be putting his energies into a referendum into the closure of the House of Lords, not only would it have widespread support it would be putting serious pressure onto them not to interfere with Brexit.

 

How would the result of a second referendum go? Hard to say, would certainly be close again, bigger youth turnout for remain (enough to overturn 1.3million votes?) but I've still not met anyone who has changed their mind. It wouldn't matter anyway, if we have second referendum we are staying, even if leave won they would make sure we get a 3rd and a 4th referendum until we get the right result just as they have when other countries rebelled against the EU.

 

Although I suppose a lot would depend on who the politicians sided with as well, I would presume May would now have to campaign for leave, she would look ridiculous if she didn't, Corbyn as well surely would? He would have to be a "Labour/socialist" leave campaigner rather than mincing around pretending to support an often Thatcherite organisation that he hates if he wants to implement his manifesto at the next election. If JC did campaign for leave and just bring 20% of his followers with him it would be a even bigger win for Leave.

 

For the reasons in the paragraph above both May and Corbyn will surely do anything to avoid a second referendum. It would put them both into a terrible position.

Edited by MattP
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23 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

Even more irresponsible to do it today as well when it's being reported a deal is nearly done for the banking industry to have full access to the single market, a key part of making sure the economy remains stable - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-signals-fresh-hope-for-banks-after-brexit-7bk380tqs

 

 

Interesting idea that the City would retain full access to the Single Market - but in exchange for unspecified UK payments to the EU.

 

Could make economic sense for both sides: UK doesn't lose a large chunk of its biggest trading sector, EU doesn't experience massive disruption of its finance sector in which the City plays such a major role.

Could make political sense for the EU, too, as they can point out that the City is only getting such access because the UK is making significant payments to the EU budget.

Could also be acceptable to those British politicians/members of public who'd be happy enough with a Soft Brexit.

 

But would it be acceptable to Hard Brexiteers? It's all a bit Soft Brexit, isn't it, continuing to pay (presumably large) sums to the EU?

It would also invite other sectors to demand similar deals: e.g. large UK payments to the EU for the British car industry to have full access to the Single Market?

Edited by Alf Bentley
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If he wants to coin it in, he could just write a book about Donald Trump. He would be a millionaire overnight. I suspect like Alf says, he is concerned that if there is a referendum at the point of exit, it might be tight and remain would have a great opportunity. Give them their wish now and it would much much easier.

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38 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Interesting idea that the City would retain full access to the Single Market - but in exchange for unspecified UK payments to the EU.

 

Could make economic sense for both sides: UK doesn't lose a large chunk of its biggest trading sector, EU doesn't experience massive disruption of its finance sector in which the City plays such a major role.

Could make political sense for the EU, too, as they can point out that the City is only getting such access because the UK is making significant payments to the EU budget.

Could also be acceptable to those British politicians/members of public who'd be happy enough with a Soft Brexit.

 

But would it be acceptable to Hard Brexiteers? It's all a bit Soft Brexit, isn't it, continuing to pay (presumably large) sums to the EU?

It would also invite other sectors to demand similar deals: e.g. large UK payments to the EU for the British car industry to have full access to the Single Market?

The hard Brexiteers are going to continue to pressure the government but they are also going to have to realise compromise is always going to occur in a negotiation.

 

If payments needs to be made for us to have full control of our own borders, laws and give the opportunity for us to then seek trade deals across the World they would be foolish to turn it down. It's getting towards the best of both Worlds, obviously the size of the payments are going to be the central focus of that debate.

 

You really can get anything you want from the EU for money, it's just going to be a case of how much.

 

37 minutes ago, Strokes said:

If he wants to coin it in, he could just write a book about Donald Trump. He would be a millionaire overnight. I suspect like Alf says, he is concerned that if there is a referendum at the point of exit, it might be tight and remain would have a great opportunity. Give them their wish now and it would much much easier.

I still don't know why he hasn't written his autobiography, he would easily coin in a few million for it.

 

I can't believe he seriously thinks a second referendum would sort it out though, people like Blair and Adonis are used to gettting their own way whatever the people do or say and they don't like this, they would think up something else then tpo push for a third referendum, these people don't stop.

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47 minutes ago, Realist Guy In The Room said:

Farage needs UKIP and UKIP needs Farage.  Its a gravy train for a lot of people that ceases to be if we leave.

 

He wants a second referendum and he wants remain to win it so he can start coining it in again.

"Vote Remain, Farage is skint and needs his salary back" would probably the biggest vote winner my side could get lol

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1 hour ago, MattP said:

Problem with these reports is the same as when it was George Osborne doing them for the treasury, if you ask the right questions with the right figures you'll get the results you want to deliver, that's why his predictions for the immediate aftermath were totally wrong, they used their own forecasts to get there which were wide of the mark, as SMX says I'd like to see what they asked to come to a proper conclusion.

 

(Although half a million jobs lost in the event of no-deal certainly seems more realistic than the 3million we were told pre-referendum) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/over-three-million-jobs-at-risk-if-britain-leaves-eu-claims-treasury-report-9561108.html

 

Farage must have lost his marbles (or be skint and need his EU salary) to be calling for a second referendum at this stage, right after a breakthrough and we are set to move onto trade talks (which will be in the hands of specialists rather than the government as well which is a good thing) he does this, the bloke has zero compromise whatsoever and I think his hatred of the Tories is starting to cloud his judgement on this, use a bit of common sense, wait until you see what the final deal is and then make up your mind, doing anything to incentivise the EU into making a worse deal for us isn't the actions of someone who is supposed to be doing what is right for his country.

 

Even more irresponsible to do it today as well when it's being reported a deal is nearly done for the banking industry to have full access to the single market, a key part of making sure the economy remains stable - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/eu-signals-fresh-hope-for-banks-after-brexit-7bk380tqs

 

Let the Blair/Adonis/Clegg's scream all they like to the BBC, Guardian and Mail on Sunday, their time at the front of politics is long gone and it isn't coming back. He should be putting his energies into a referendum into the closure of the House of Lords, not only would it have widespread support it would be putting serious pressure onto them not to interfere with Brexit.

 

How would the result of a second referendum go? Hard to say, would certainly be close again, bigger youth turnout for remain (enough to overturn 1.3million votes?) but I've still not met anyone who has changed their mind. It wouldn't matter anyway, if we have second referendum we are staying, even if leave won they would make sure we get a 3rd and a 4th referendum until we get the right result just as they have when other countries rebelled against the EU.

 

Although I suppose a lot would depend on who the politicians sided with as well, I would presume May would now have to campaign for leave, she would look ridiculous if she didn't, Corbyn as well surely would? He would have to be a "Labour/socialist" leave campaigner rather than mincing around pretending to support an often Thatcherite organisation that he hates if he wants to implement his manifesto at the next election. If JC did campaign for leave and just bring 20% of his followers with him it would be a even bigger win for Leave.

 

For the reasons in the paragraph above both May and Corbyn will surely do anything to avoid a second referendum. It would put them both into a terrible position.

 

Here is the report, Matt.

 

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/preparing_for_brexit_final_report.pdf

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