Brexit!

[Strokes]

42 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I’d be really surprised if this doesn’t sneak over the line 

 

Anyone notice David Cameron referring to Boris as the “greased piglet”. I wonder if that was an Eton nickname ! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hope he didn’t put his knob in his mouth.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Imagine if Boris pulls this off

[WigstonWanderer]

Tbh I hope this does get through now. There doesn’t seem to be any clear majority (if polls can be trusted) to remain in the EU, and I suspect that even if it was put to a referendum this could pass, so perhaps best to just get it done. At least no deal will have been avoided and it will be up to future governments how close an alignment and relationship they want with the EU. If this is really what people want then so be it.

 

I still believe the country will be worse off economically and that future generations will mourn the passing of frictionless trade and freedom of movement, but perhaps this will at least speed up the creation of a united Ireland.

 

In the short term I’d expect the pound to bounce back somewhat and perhaps something of an economic resurgence, followed by a slow decline compared to what might have been. The UK’s influence in the world is also likely to diminish as a lone voice on the world stage amid powerful economic blocks, perhaps becoming more dependent on the US (shudder).

 

Much will presumably depend on what kind of FTA is finally agreed, and that could take years.

Edited 19 October 2019 by WigstonWanderer

[Innovindil]

8 hours ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Imagine if Boris pulls this off

Honestly I'm still in shock he's even got this close, even if he doesn't get it through. 

 

Imagine where we'd be now if he'd have been put in charge from the get go instead of the flip flopping may. 

[Guest MattP]

14 hours ago, MattP said:

Starting to look like he has the numbers.

 

Wonder what the speaker and Grieve can cook up to try and stop this vote happening? I'll be amazed if we don't see something to try it before tomorrow. 

Here we go.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/pm-faces-brexit-extension-even-if-his-deal-is-passed

 

Oliver Letwin though - not Grieve.

[Strokes]

9 hours ago, Strokes said:

If the Letwin amendment gets through. Boris will still have to ask for an extension and even if the treaty passes tomorrow, it will need to be passed again in the commons and then through the lords without amendments to get through before October 31st. Which means Boris has to keep the party deflectors with him for up too 10 days. That would really keep him on his toes if it’s as tight as predicted.

 

27 minutes ago, MattP said:

Here we go.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/pm-faces-brexit-extension-even-if-his-deal-is-passed

 

Oliver Letwin though - not Grieve.

Yeah I heard this yesterday on LBC they explained it. It really is quite underhand if you ask me.

it means they can vote for it and look like they aren’t blocking but then delay and change once the extension is secured. 
Still it’s not like Johnson is new to underhanded tactics, I’m sure he will play some tricks himself.

[Guest MattP]

Pulling the vote if the wrecking amendment succeeds.

[The Guvnor]

2 hours ago, Strokes said:

 

Yeah I heard this yesterday on LBC they explained it. It really is quite underhand if you ask me.

it means they can vote for it and look like they aren’t blocking but then delay and change once the extension is secured. 
Still it’s not like Johnson is new to underhanded tactics, I’m sure he will play some tricks himself.

Letwin looking decidedly awkward when challenged by the PM, was suggested the Father of the house who is backing this vote will have a word in his ear at the dispatch box.

[Jon the Hat]

9 hours ago, WigstonWanderer said:

Tbh I hope this does get through now. There doesn’t seem to be any clear majority (if polls can be trusted) to remain in the EU, and I suspect that even if it was put to a referendum this could pass, so perhaps best to just get it done. At least no deal will have been avoided and it will be up to future governments how close an alignment and relationship they want with the EU. If this is really what people want then so be it.

 

I still believe the country will be worse off economically and that future generations will mourn the passing of frictionless trade and freedom of movement, but perhaps this will at least speed up the creation of a united Ireland.

 

In the short term I’d expect the pound to bounce back somewhat and perhaps something of an economic resurgence, followed by a slow decline compared to what might have been. The UK’s influence in the world is also likely to diminish as a lone voice on the world stage amid powerful economic blocks, perhaps becoming more dependent on the US (shudder).

 

Much will presumably depend on what kind of FTA is finally agreed, and that could take years.

There will be no decline.  There might be slightly lower growth, but to be honest we should be focussed on productivity not growth.

[Jon the Hat]

3 hours ago, Innovindil said:

Honestly I'm still in shock he's even got this close, even if he doesn't get it through. 

 

Imagine where we'd be now if he'd have been put in charge from the get go instead of the flip flopping may. 

Indeed.  I’m not that surprised-it’s amazing what a bit of belief can do.

[Alf Bentley]

3 hours ago, Strokes said:

 

Yeah I heard this yesterday on LBC they explained it. It really is quite underhand if you ask me.

it means they can vote for it and look like they aren’t blocking but then delay and change once the extension is secured. 
Still it’s not like Johnson is new to underhanded tactics, I’m sure he will play some tricks himself.

 

Alternatively, without the Letwin amendment, a small number of ERG MPs who support No Deal could help the deal pass today....but then scupper the legislation in coming days.

That way, the Benn Act would be avoided and there'd be no need to request an extension.....and we'd be heading for No Deal in a fortnight.

The Letwin amendment is intended precisely to forestall any underhand tactics by Boris or ERG types - and, if the predictions are correct, it might only require 2-3 MPs to indulge in such tricks.

 

Only yesterday, John Baron, an ERG MP, was trumpeting how he'd been reassured by No. 10 that there'd be an opportunity to go for No Deal in December 2020.

If some ERG MPs are thinking that way about 2020 - and are even stupid enough to talk about it publicly - there's every reason to think that some might try the same in 2019.

 

On the numbers for the vote, I see that Norman Lamb, the one Lib Dem expected to support the deal, has announced that he will not support it (unclear whether he'll oppose or abstain).... 

[The Guvnor]

7 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Alternatively, without the Letwin amendment, a small number of ERG MPs who support No Deal could help the deal pass today....but then scupper the legislation in coming days.

That way, the Benn Act would be avoided and there'd be no need to request an extension.....and we'd be heading for No Deal in a fortnight.

The Letwin amendment is intended precisely to forestall any underhand tactics by Boris or ERG types - and, if the predictions are correct, it might only require 2-3 MPs to indulge in such tricks.

 

Only yesterday, John Baron, an ERG MP, was trumpeting how he'd been reassured by No. 10 that there'd be an opportunity to go for No Deal in December 2020.

If some ERG MPs are thinking that way about 2020 - and are even stupid enough to talk about it publicly - there's every reason to think that some might try the same in 2019.

 

On the numbers for the vote, I see that Norman Lamb, the one Lib Dem expected to support the deal, has announced that he will not support it (unclear whether he'll oppose or abstain).... 

The Father of the house has said he will support the deaI, I suspect that will have a profound  influence considering his depth of feeling throughout this whole process and the respect he has, it will be close that is if there is a vote today.

[Alf Bentley]

4 minutes ago, The Guvnor said:

The Father of the house has said he will support the deaI, I suspect that will have a profound  influence considering his depth of feeling throughout this whole process and the respect he has, it will be close that is if there is a vote today.

 

I'm sure it will be close. My guess it that it'll narrowly pass whenever it finally happens, but  I wouldn't want to put money on any outcome.

I just watched a bit of the debate live but didn't see any of the Labour MPs who want a deal speak, either for or against.....don't know that means.

I presume it's them and the Tory rebels who'll decide the outcome, as ERG seem fully on-board & DUP opposed.

 

I just read that if the Letwin amendment passes, it's too late for the vote on the deal to be pulled so it will happen today but Tory MPs might be whipped "to have a tea break" - i.e. abstain.

Presumably the deal would then be nominally defeated by the opposition but the mass Tory abstentions would make that meaningless.

It would then be brought back on Tuesday (I wonder if Boris hopes that the EU will reject the extension request by then?). 

 

I've a lot of respect for Ken Clarke. Probably the best PM the Tories never had. I'm sure he might influence 1-2 Tory rebels to bite the bullet & support the deal.

[Milo]

Haha - wtf...Mark C**nting Carney saying that Brexit will be good for the economy?!

 

Now I'm a bit worried

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/mark-carney-brexit-deal-boost-192859217.html

[Innovindil]

1 minute ago, Milo said:

Haha - wtf...Mark C**nting Carney saying that Brexit will be good for the economy?!

 

Now I'm a bit worried

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/mark-carney-brexit-deal-boost-192859217.html

Compared to constant uncertainty, it more than likely will imo.

[Milo]

1 minute ago, Innovindil said:

Compared to constant uncertainty, it more than likely will imo.

I agree - but he's been a complete tosser for the past 3 years, saying the absolute opposite...and now pops up with this?

 

 

 

 

 

(If I was typing this on my phone, I'd add that little brain explosion emoji here)

 

 

[st albans fox]

 Carney said a deal is far better for the economy than continuing uncertainty but that this deal would still lower GDP expectation against may’s deal 

 

my view is that if we delay a deal any longer then much of the bottled up investment may be pulled on the back of the impending global downturn...

 

the downside of more delay is potentially now more damaging over the period of the economic cycle than remaining ! 
 

Btw, amazing to see jezza and the DUP as bedfellows ..... strange times indeed ......

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

 Carney said a deal is far better for the economy than continuing uncertainty but that this deal would still lower GDP expectation against may’s deal 

 

my view is that if we delay a deal any longer then much of the bottled up investment may be pulled on the back of the impending global downturn...

 

the downside of more delay is potentially now more damaging over the period of the economic cycle than remaining ! 
 

Btw, amazing to see jezza and the DUP as bedfellows ..... strange times indeed ......

You have to remember though, that the expectations/predictions do not include any future negotiated trade deals. 
So this one is bound to come of worse, in an impact assessment.

[st albans fox]

Just now, Strokes said:

You have to remember though, that the expectations/predictions do not include any future negotiated trade deals. 
So this one is bound to come of worse, in an impact assessment.

It’s all unknown - anyone who claims differently is ‘pi¥¥ing in the wind’

 

leave/remain was always an unknown call - just a bad time to make it given that we were likely to be in a declining global economy come the end of the decade and with our own economy that hadn’t yet recovered from the banking crisis and fall out via austerity. 

[Strokes]

4 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

It’s all unknown - anyone who claims differently is ‘pi¥¥ing in the wind’

 

leave/remain was always an unknown call - just a bad time to make it given that we were likely to be in a declining global economy come the end of the decade and with our own economy that hadn’t yet recovered from the banking crisis and fall out via austerity. 

I think we are in a better situation than you give credit for, it’s hardly shit or bust.

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

I think we are in a better situation than you give credit for, it’s hardly shit or bust.

You must be working in a very lucky part of the economy then ..... it’s pretty grim out there and time is running out fast .... I suspect the tax take for 2019 is going to be way down on expectations 

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

You must be working in a very lucky part of the economy then ..... it’s pretty grim out there and time is running out fast .... I suspect the tax take for 2019 is going to be way down on expectations 

Oh I don’t deny the uncertainty has hit over the last 3 years. I mean the country has all the ingredients to pull through this. 
Throughout all this massive damaging uncertainty and pantomime politics, we have kept our heads above water. Signing this deal, no matter what your opinion on brexit, has to be better than this limbo period.

[Milo]

22 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

You must be working in a very lucky part of the economy then ..... it’s pretty grim out there and time is running out fast .... I suspect the tax take for 2019 is going to be way down on expectations 

I don't think things are particularly rosy anywhere at the moment, tbh - and I mean globally, not just in our Brexit-bubble.

 

 

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, Milo said:

I don't think things are particularly rosy anywhere at the moment, tbh - and I mean globally, not just in our Brexit-bubble.

 

 

Quite.

 

Everything in many places seems to be getting pushed to 11.

[Alf Bentley]

Guardian Live: "Some pro-Brexit protesters have been ushered away from the people’s vote march".

 

Glad to see that @Jon the Hat made it up to Westminster, as planned. Don't get on top of any tube trains, eh?