Brexit!

[bovril]

Just now, MattP said:

Then don't have elections then. The same people saying this will be a disaster and also the same people saying Corbyn and McDonnell will also be that, job losses, capital flight etc

 

So do we leave Labour off the ballot paper at the next election? Of course we don't. 

 

Democracy can be shit - but believe me it's far better than any alternative. 

'Democracy' is a huge term. Elections result in 650 MP's from different parties being elected to the House of Commons.

What we're talking about here is a single party attempting to force through a Hard Brexit that bears little resemblance to what was promised in the referendum. 

 

If you want that fine, but you can't expect people will accept that, ever. Not when you think about what it might mean to people's livelihoods. I realise you won't agree with me and I'm sure you don't expect me to agree with you, so here we are....

[Facecloth]

Just now, MattP said:

Of course you can - you are free to campaign and have a vote to rejoin as soon as we've left, that's democracy. 

We won't go back in with the same benefits we had before. As much as people bitch about it we actually have it pretty good with the EU, we'll never get that deal back. 

 

And it could take 20 years to turn it round, we have GE every 5.

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, bovril said:

'Democracy' is a huge term. Elections result in 650 MP's from different parties being elected to the House of Commons.

What we're talking about here is a single party attempting to force through a Hard Brexit that bears little resemblance to what was promised in the referendum. 

 

If you want that fine, but you can't expect people will accept that, ever. Not when you think about what it might mean to people's livelihoods. I realise you won't agree with me and I'm sure you don't expect me to agree with you, so here we are....

So this deal is now a "hard Brexit"?  😂😂

 

I don't think so many definitions have so radically changed during one political argument as this one. 

 

As I said to @Facecloth - once this decision is implemented you are free to campaign to rejoin and if that is then the will of the public you won't get me crying for re-runs because my side lost.

[Strokes]

8 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

We won't go back in with the same benefits we had before. As much as people bitch about it we actually have it pretty good with the EU, we'll never get that deal back. 

 

And it could take 20 years to turn it round, we have GE every 5.

What special benefits would we lose?

[Facecloth]

2 minutes ago, Strokes said:

What special benefits would we lose?

We'd most likely have to sign up to the Euro for starters. Join Shenghan. 

[bovril]

7 minutes ago, MattP said:

So this deal is now a "hard Brexit"?  😂😂

 

I don't think so many definitions have so radically changed during one political argument as this one. 

 

It's always been the same hasn't it? Leaving the CU and SM.

[Strokes]

Just now, Facecloth said:

We'd most likely have to sign up to the Euro for starters. Join Shenghan. 

Why would we have to sign up to the euro when it’s not being asked of any other country in accession?

I really don’t think being excluded from schengen is a massive issue as we are an island. 

 

[Guest MattP]

Leave politicians lied.

 

 

[twoleftfeet]

It wouldnt make any difference if we joined the euro in the future it will just end up being a symbol in front of the number in your bank account as we head ever closer to a cash less society.

[Guesty]

Apparently this is what will probably happen this week - this stuff gets complicated; thought it might finally be sorted this week but looks unlikely. I think if you click on it it will open up all the follow on tweets I hope.

 

The abbreviations below:

 

MV=meaningful vote (ie the substantive vote on the deal)

WAB= Withdrawal Agreement Bill, the main bit of legislation needed to enable Brexit.

QS= Queen’s Speech

Edited 20 October 2019 by Guesty

[WigstonWanderer]

46 minutes ago, twoleftfeet said:

It wouldnt make any difference if we joined the euro in the future it will just end up being a symbol in front of the number in your bank account as we head ever closer to a cash less society.

It’s vastly more complex than that. A nation with its own currency gets to set its own interest rate which in turn affects the exchange rate. Rates can thus be tailored to local requirements.

[Miquel The Work Geordie]

Brexit means Brexit !!!

[leicsmac]

11 hours ago, SouthStandUpperTier said:

Nothing. The country is far too split down the middle for this to be resolved any time soon.

And that is the nub and crux of it, sadly - whatever way things go from here I can't see a way out without serious civil unrest.

 

And all for...what, I wonder?

[Miquel The Work Geordie]

Brexit means Brexit baby!

[Alf Bentley]

7 hours ago, Miquel The Work Geordie said:

Brexit means Brexit baby!

 

Yeah, I understand that yer first Brexit means yer second Brexit, but what does yer second Brexit mean? Please don't say that it means yer first Brexit..... 

 

I've learned something this morning. Remember that horrendous 80s hit by Opus, "Life is Life"?

That's what I thought it was called.....turns out that it was "Live is life" all along. That makes a lot more sense. It's almost profound.

 

Perhaps Brexit will make as much sense to me some day? 

 

Here is Opus for young pop pickers and those lucky enough to have forgotten the song.

They were Austrian. Rather than Brexit, perhaps we could just cancel freedom of movement for Austrian pop stars?

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Parliament sitting at 2.30.

 

According to press....

 

Bercow unlikely to let them table the motion again.

 

EU doesn't want to respond until our parliament has voted on the deal.

 

What a mess.

[Alf Bentley]

Here's Patrick Maguire (New Statesman) on where we stand now.....

 

"Boris Johnson will bring his Brexit deal before the Commons for another meaningful vote today, [...]. But John Bercow will almost certainly block it on the grounds that MPs have already considered the question. The only course of action available to the government then is to do what the Letwin amendment asked them to, and bring forward the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. Tomorrow's vote on whether it should receive a second reading will serve as a de facto meaningful vote. They could then in theory rush it through the Commons before Halloween. But as much as ministers claim a majority exists for the deal, there is no guarantee that MPs will agree to a truncated timetable. Letwin himself said that he wanted a deal by 31 October but, with an extension in the bag, the MPs who supported him might instead take more time to debate and amend the legislation to soften Johson's Brexit — or put it to a referendum.  Despite featuring on just about every front page this morning, the latter isn't going to happen (though it suits Downing Street to pretend that it might). The real risk for the government is that a majority for a customs union exists. Keir Starmer has said that Labour will table an amendment to that effect, ex-Tory rebels like Rory Stewart say they would support it - and so might the DUP, who have pledged to support any amendment that delivers a Brexit that applies more or less equally to the entire UK. Arlene Foster's 10 MPs have rejected Starmer's appeal for their support on a second referendum, but they have done no such thing on customs. The Govt majority is so ramshackle, and the policy asks of the MPs of whom it is made up so divergent, that it could well spontaneously combust. [...] At that point, Johnson's only remaining option would be to pull the legislation, say Bercow and then MPs stopped you from getting a proper Brexit done, take the deal to the country, and hope for a majority. Though ministers might insist otherwise, by this afternoon the chances of the UK leaving on 31 October or indeed at any point this year without an election might have evaporated for good."   High-risk strategy by the opposition, mind....if we end up with a Nov/Dec election with Brexit undone, will that yield a Boris 5-year majority that he uses for all sorts of mayhem.....and would he then proceed with this deal in January or switch to No Deal?

[Guest MattP]

32 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

High-risk strategy by the opposition, mind....if we end up with a Nov/Dec election with Brexit undone, will that yield a Boris 5-year majority that he uses for all sorts of mayhem.....and would he then proceed with this deal in January or switch to No Deal?

High risk is almost an understatement. 

 

Every week this drags on the Conservative poll lead gets bigger and bigger and how on earth are they going to be able to spin blocking Brexit even when it now finally has the parliamentary numbers to succeed? Are they still instead under the impression that leavers will turn on Boris if we get past October? If so I think they should prepare for a surprise. 

 

Are they really prepared to risk no deal to remain? Not even sure this is the right strategy if they were level in the polls.

[Guest MattP]

He would never obviously agree to it, but behind closed doors I'd think Boris would fancy his chances in a "confirmatory refetendum as well"

 

[Strokes]

10 minutes ago, MattP said:

High risk is almost an understatement. 

 

Every week this drags on the Conservative poll lead gets bigger and bigger and how on earth are they going to be able to spin blocking Brexit even when it now finally has the parliamentary numbers to succeed? Are they still instead under the impression that leavers will turn on Boris if we get past October? If so I think they should prepare for a surprise. 

 

Are they really prepared to risk no deal to remain? Not even sure this is the right strategy if they were level in the polls.

Listening to LBC this morning, Nick Ferrari was called in by a guy who was in a working mans club in Barnsley. I don’t know if he worked in there or was just a drinker. Anyway this club was the one that had a burning effigy of Thatcher when she died. Apparently they watched all the going on in Parliament on Saturday and everytime Johnson spoke it was greeted by cheers and clapping and Letwin, Bercow, Corbyn and starmer were booed and jeered. 

[Guest MattP]

10 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Listening to LBC this morning, Nick Ferrari was called in by a guy who was in a working mans club in Barnsley. I don’t know if he worked in there or was just a drinker. Anyway this club was the one that had a burning effigy of Thatcher when she died. Apparently they watched all the going on in Parliament on Saturday and everytime Johnson spoke it was greeted by cheers and clapping and Letwin, Bercow, Corbyn and starmer were booed and jeered. 

I'd love to see some internal polling on some of the northern Labour seats at the minute.

 

The bookies now have the Tories as short as evens to win a majority so I'd imagine they expect them to pick up quite a few.

[Alf Bentley]

45 minutes ago, MattP said:

High risk is almost an understatement. 

 

Every week this drags on the Conservative poll lead gets bigger and bigger and how on earth are they going to be able to spin blocking Brexit even when it now finally has the parliamentary numbers to succeed? Are they still instead under the impression that leavers will turn on Boris if we get past October? If so I think they should prepare for a surprise. 

 

Are they really prepared to risk no deal to remain? Not even sure this is the right strategy if they were level in the polls.

 

We don't yet know whether the deal has the numbers to succeed. It seems likely, but not certain, that it has the numbers to win a meaningful vote - but less certain that all the legislation will pass without amendment (though the DUP have apparently said they won't support a Customs Union amendment).

 

Who knows with polls and elections, though I share your doubts that public sentiment will change - but it might, depending on events. Unfortunately (from my perspective), my impression is that there's now a widespread sentiment of "let's get it done / over with" even among many Remain voters.

 

I fundamentally disagree with that sentiment. When the stakes are so high - setting the ground rules for our society for years, if not decades ahead - we need to be patient so that any deal is properly scrutinised. That's quite apart from the fact that, even if the WA passes tomorrow, the Brexit struggle will continue, almost certainly for years to come....unless a trade deal is somehow agreed within a year or we accept No Deal in Dec. 2020, bringing crises of its own. I'm well aware, though, that as someone with an intense interest in politics, I'm not a typical voter. Most voters just "want it over with".....or want to act in haste and repent at leisure, as I'd see it.

 

There's certainly a major risk in the opposition's strategy. But would the Tories switch to No Deal if they won a majority? Or would they proceed with the deal negotiated? That's the first question that the opposition need to ask.

The second question is what a Tory majority govt would do next December, even if they proceeded with this WA. Would they extend FTA negotiations, if need be, or opt to leave with no FTA?

 

Of course, there's a chance that the Tories might NOT win a majority, but the opposition certainly need to factor in the distinct possibility that they will. But if the risk is only that the Tories proceed with the deal & seek a FTA, then it might be a risk worth taking. If a majority Tory Govt would switch to No Deal in January or December, that's a different kettle of fish. 

 

Edited 21 October 2019 by Alf Bentley

[RoboFox]

Johnson was defeated 322 to 306 and he says it "was pretty close" so wants to do it again, as hopes people will "change their minds".

 

What percentage of votes that 306 represents? 48%. And 322? 52% 

 

But... But... YoU LoSt BoRiS, gEt OvEr It! 

 

Edited 21 October 2019 by RoboFox

[Guest MattP]

2 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

We don't yet know whether the deal has the numbers to succeed. It seems likely, but not certain, that it has the numbers to win a meaningful vote - but less certain that all the legislation will pass without amendment (though the DUP have apparently said they won't support a Customs Union amendment).

 

Who knows with polls and elections, though I share your doubts that public sentiment will change - but it might, depending on events. Unfortunately (from my perspective), my impression is that there's now a widespread sentiment of "let's get it done / over with" even among many Remain voters.

 

I fundamentally disagree with that sentiment. When the stakes are so high - setting the ground rules for our society for years, if not decades ahead - we need to be patient so that any deal is properly scrutinised. That's quite apart from the fact that, even if the WA passes tomorrow, the Brexit struggle will continue, almost certainly for years to come....unless a trade deal is somehow agreed within a year or we accept No Deal in Dec. 2020, bringing crises of its own. I'm well aware, though, that as someone with an intense interest in politics, I'm not a typical voter. Most voters just "want it over with".....or want to act in haste and repent at leisure, as I'd see it.

 

There's certainly a major risk in the opposition's strategy. But would the Tories switch to No Deal if they won a majority? Or would they proceed with the deal negotiated? That's the first question that the opposition need to ask.

The second question is what a Tory majority govt would do next December, even if they proceeded with this WA. Would they extend FTA negotiations, if need be, or opt to leave with no FTA?

 

Of course, there's a chance that the Tories might NOT win a majority, but the opposition certainly need to factor in the distinct possibility that they will. But if the risk is only that the Tories proceed with the deal & seek a FTA, then it might be a risk worth taking. If a majority Tory Govt would switch to No Deal in January or December, that's a different kettle of fish.

Of course everything should be scrutinised, that includes bills like the Benn amendment as well, but whenever it's a bill or motion sent forward by remainers that needs to be done quickly it is ratified within hours with the help of a bent speaker, so you can't blame the government for trying the same.the problem with that argument here though is we konw barely anyone is doing any as they have already made up their mind - Corbyn tweeted this deal wasn't good enough last Friday before the document had even been released

 

The opposition can ask that question but Conservative party isn't under any obligation whatsoever to answer it, it can go into an election with whatever it wants to.

Parliament had a chance for a very soft May deal, it's turned that down, now it has a slightly harder deal to vote on, it now has to assess whether it's worth turning that down - if we do end up with a No Deal no one in the Remain side can complain anymore, they've now had four chances to stop it and potentially a fifth upcoming.
 

Just now, RoboFox said:

Johnson was defeated 322 to 306 and he says it "was pretty close" so wants to do it again, as hopes people will "change their minds".

 

What percentage of votes that 306 represents? 48%. And 322? 52% 

Johnson has said he wants to vote on the Letwin amendment again? I seriously doubt that.

[lgfualol]

EU trade deal 'easiest in human history' hehehe