Brexit!

[Bobby Hundreds]

3 minutes ago, MattP said:

Which one was it?

 

Two stood out for me, the one who managed to invent a united Ireland in his own head in 30 seconds and the pillock at the end who tried to virtue signal asking how many BAME reps the Brexit party had without knowing it was more than anyone else.

My money is on a united Ireland turtleneck guy. 

[Guest Markyblue]

For me boris has been very clever. Vote for the deal and he has delivered brexit or vote it down with the chance of no extensions or even if the extension happens he would surely get his election without the blame being on him.

[RobHawk]

55 minutes ago, MattP said:

Which one was it?

 

Two stood out for me, the one who managed to invent a united Ireland in his own head in 30 seconds and the pillock at the end who tried to virtue signal asking how many BAME reps the Brexit party had without knowing it was more than anyone else.

The Ireland guy. Absolute bell end

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

As I understand it (from commentators, I've not read the document!), what makes it potentially a harder Brexit is that the stuff on workers/environmental rights in May's Deal has been watered down and/or moved from the (binding) Withdrawal Agreement to the (non-binding) Political Declaration on the future relationship. Both May & Johnson's Deals are "Hard" in taking us out of the SM and CU after the transition period.

 

It's only potentially harder as the future relationship could take years to negotiate - and, in theory, we could get another Govt that wanted a closer relationship with the EU. If this deal goes through, I wouldn't bank on that, as the Tories will be odds-on to win a majority in an election soon. Maybe more significantly, the EU isn't going to be keen to offer the generous FTA that the UK wants if the UK clearly plans to diverge massively on employment & environmental rights etc. So, would a Boris Britain prefer no/limited FTA and an alignment with the US model of capitalism, undercutting EU on conditions & standards - or not to diverge too far from EU rights/standards so as to get a FTA, particularly if the economy isn't great place in a couple of years?

 

To be fair, he has probably got as good an agreement as possible on N. Ireland. Obviously, I think that both Remain and Soft Brexit (staying in the SM & CU) would have been better, but given the clear Tory intent to leave the SM & CU, this seems a better solution than May's in establishing a workable economic system that is changeable but not unstable - and massively better than No Deal in avoiding hard border, economic chaos & potential sectarian conflict. It might mean that constitutional issues over Irish reunification arise sooner than expected - but that was going to happen sooner or later, anyway, due to the demographic shift away from a unionist majority in the North. Interesting to see that, while the DUP are opposed to the deal, Sinn Fein have given it a cautious welcome.....perhaps Boris could persuade the 7 Sinn Fein MPs to turn up to Westminster to secure a Tory majority tomorrow? 

 

This really looks too tight to call, doesn't it?

 

Those FT figures assume both sides are successful in their whipping. Corbyn/Starmer will be delighted if they can limit Labour rebellions to 7....but likewise the Tory whips if every single ERG Tory supports the deal, as the FT assumes?

Apparently, the DUP have said they're going to be actively seeking to persuade ERG Tories to oppose the deal.....will they really have zero success in that? Abstentions could come into it, too.

 

Labour MPs from Leave seats, like the 18 (?) who signed the letter calling for a deal including May's concessions on employment/environment rights will be critical.

We know that there are a few Labour MPs who support Brexit regardless, possibly a few more who might vote for it to keep their seats, but Johnson might need the votes of some of those who wanted concessions. Will he get them?

 

The Labour whips will have a strong argument against: vote for this and Boris could win a majority as the all-conquering hero who "got Brexit done", giving him 5 years to do as he likes, including negotiating an ultra-Hard future relationship with the EU, if he's not too bothered about the FTA & negotiating generous trade deals with the USA etc. Labour MPs who facilitate anything like that could be pariahs for life within their party. Vote against and it could yet prevent a Boris 5-year majority & lead to Soft Brexit or a Referendum. Then again, some might quietly think it's worth the opprobrium to be rid of Corbyn (as they would be if Boris won a majority)....

 

On the maths, my hunch is that the Govt is slightly short. But on instinct, I suspect they'll find a way to get the numbers.....it would probably be enough to persuade the DUP or the 18 Labourites who wrote that letter to abstain....

 

Will they announce the result at half-time of the Burnley match? 

Imagine if it's a tie & comes down to Bercow's casting vote? Tradition is then for the Speaker to support the status quo, isn't it? So, by tradition he'd be obliged to defeat the bill, wouldn't he?  

Great post as always.

Everything is "potentially" as the withdrawal agreement is still separate from the political declaration - I still don't see a bonfire of rights but if we do get one the Conservative party will be duly punished the electorate at the ballot box and rightly so.

I was susprised they only had Labour rebels as well, that will surely be into double figures given the 18 you mention all have effectively asked for this, it would be crazy to do that and then reject it. As for the "spartans" - if people like Francois and Baker turn on this deal then they shold realise a lot of Brexiteers will be turning on them as well.

As for the speaker, is it the status quo or with the government? As long as he sticks to precedent I couldn't care less - he's done a lifetimes worth a damage to his office and public trust in it without doing anymore here. Might be a good idea to put Lindsay Hoyle in the chair for the debate, but his ego wouldn't allow it.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

Great post as always.

Everything is "potentially" as the withdrawal agreement is still separate from the political declaration - I still don't see a bonfire of rights but if we do get one the Conservative party will be duly punished the electorate at the ballot box and rightly so.

I was susprised they only had Labour rebels as well, that will surely be into double figures given the 18 you mention all have effectively asked for this, it would be crazy to do that and then reject it. As for the "spartans" - if people like Francois and Baker turn on this deal then they shold realise a lot of Brexiteers will be turning on them as well.

As for the speaker, is it the status quo or with the government? As long as he sticks to precedent I couldn't care less - he's done a lifetimes worth a damage to his office and public trust in it without doing anymore here. Might be a good idea to put Lindsay Hoyle in the chair for the debate, but his ego wouldn't allow it.

How many of our workers rights go above and beyond the EUs statutory rights? I’m sure it’s a hell of a lot but I’ve not the time to research it now.

[surrifox]

1 hour ago, Mike Oxlong said:

Northern Ireland will be the only part of Europe with tariff free access to EU market, the UK market and gaining the benefits of any future UK world trade deals 

 

Should be positive for inward investment in the six counties 

you would think so wouldn't you ? Unfortunately the political establishment there is too blinded by fear and loathing to recognise the opportunity presented

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Strokes said:

How many of our workers rights go above and beyond the EUs statutory rights? I’m sure it’s a hell of a lot but I’ve not the time to research it now.

Many.

 

It's a total bullshit argument from Labour tbh as they know this stuff is decided at elections and this current government has numbers to get nothing through anyway. 

 

Just easier than then saying "we want to reverse it really" or "we can't hand evil Boris a political victory". 

Edited 18 October 2019 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

My favourite story of the day.

 

[Astleyfox]

4 hours ago, Charl91 said:

I'm not talking about Tories going against Government policy here. But if Boris decided it was Gov policy to allow the deal with a second referendum, it would certainly get through. It would have Labour/ Lib Dem / SNP support, and a good number of Tories would vote for Boris's-deal-with-second-referendum, especially if the alternative was no deal. Boris's deal is close-ish to the numbers already, and attaching a second ref would gain more votes than it would lose.

 

Of course that's all very hypothetical, as Boris would never want or allow that. But then at least at that point the ball is back in his court when his own deal fails to get through, and Labour will be seen as much more reasonable for voting the deal down."We're voting the deal down because you won't let the people vote on it" comes as much more reasonable than "we're voting the deal down because reasons"

 

Labour's are in a bit of a corner at the moment, and their strongest move right now would be to come out and support the deal with a second ref attached.

 

I agree. The deal vs no deal. Remain is not an option. 

[ealingfox]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

If Boris decided to attach that and make it government policy he would (quite rightly) be removed from the job. The first rule for any Conservative MP let alone is you implement votes you delegated to the public. 

 

The SNP have also said they won't vote for a confirmatory referendum. 

 

The Tories tried to block the forming of the Welsh Assembly following that referendum and overturning the result was part of their campaigning for years afterwards, so this 'first rule' can't have existed for very long.

[Guest MattP]

6 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

The Tories tried to block the forming of the Welsh Assembly following that referendum and overturning the result was part of their campaigning for years afterwards, so this 'first rule' can't have existed for very long.

The Tories didn't vote for the Welsh devolution referendum, Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid did.

 

For the same reason now I have no problem with how Ken Clarke votes, he also didn't vote to give a referendum on Europe so he had no moral obligation to vote to invoke Article 50 or for any deal.

[ealingfox]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

The Tories didn't vote for the Welsh devolution referendum, Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid did.

 

For the same reason now I have no problem with how Ken Clarke votes, he also didn't vote to give a referendum on Europe so he had no moral obligation to vote to invoke Article 50 or for any deal.

 

Consider the goalposts moved.

[Bryn]

How can anyone anti EU be happy about this? 

 

Part of the UK now has to answer in part to Brussels without having any say in how the EU runs. With regards to customs at least. 

 

This has been done without their consent, contrary to their will and without their assembly being able to have a say. 

 

How much more evidence do we need that those who wish to leave the EU have utter contempt for anyone else's opinion and are interested in nothing more than benefitting themselves? 

 

This will generate tension in Northern Ireland and encourage independence movements in the nations outside of England.

 

What an absolute shambles brexit and all its supporters are. Disgraceful. 

[Charl91]

1 hour ago, Astleyfox said:

I agree. The deal vs no deal. Remain is not an option. 

If remain is not an option, then you're forever going to have a huge amount of the population that feels like Brexit was sold on a lie. May well end with us campaigning to rejoin not long into the future, and probably on worse terms.

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Charl91 said:

If remain is not an option, then you're forever going to have a huge amount of the population that feels like Brexit was sold on a lie. May well end with us campaigning to rejoin not long into the future, and probably on worse terms.

If that happens and it is the wish of the British public then so be it.

I'll forgive no Brexiteer who acts like the many Remainers have since 2016 and seeks to thwart a democratic decision that was taken.

[Guest MattP]

Pretty big this, they are now trying to help it over the line.

 

 

[Charl91]

2 hours ago, MattP said:

If that happens and it is the wish of the British public then so be it.

I'll forgive no Brexiteer who acts like the many Remainers have since 2016 and seeks to thwart a democratic decision that was taken.

 

I know we're re-hashing the same argument ad nauseum, but we'll forever have a sticking point because many (including myself) don't believe it was a genuinely democratic decision, based on

 

1) Lies (and saying both sides did it doesn't make it any better) 

2) Whatever-the-opposite-of-splitting-the-vote is (consolidating all possible fantasy Brexits under one banner)

 

I've always said I'd have gritted my teeth and got on with it if I thought there had been any legitimacy to the democratic vote, but the whole thing was a sham.

 

Or course, now we have 2 concrete options, you could actually see what the democratic will of the people would be given two concrete options. But I feel like Brexit voters suddenly aren't interested in democracy anymore.

Edited 18 October 2019 by Charl91

[Astleyfox]

32 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

If remain is not an option, then you're forever going to have a huge amount of the population that feels like Brexit was sold on a lie. May well end with us campaigning to rejoin not long into the future, and probably on worse terms.

Im sorry, di-dums. If remain is on a second ballot, you will have millions feeling angry that their decision has been discarded. 

[leicsmac]

I still see no way that this is going to end without civil unrest of some type because I don't see a way that it ends that doesn't piss off a large amount of people royally.

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Charl91 said:

 

I know we're re-hashing the same argument ad nauseum, but we'll forever have a sticking point because many (including myself) don't believe it was a genuinely democratic decision, based on

 

1) Lies (and saying both sides did it doesn't make it any better, although I will certainly argue 

2) Whatever-the-opposite-of-splitting-the-vote is (consolidating all possible fantasy Brexits under one banner)

 

I've always said I'd have gritted my teeth and got on with it if I thought there had been any legitimacy to the democratic vote, but the whole thing was a sham.

 

Or course, now we have 2 concrete options, you could actually see what the democratic will of the people would be given two concrete options. But I feel like Brexit voters suddenly aren't interested in democracy anymore.

Every single election in history has had lies told in it, at every election we have the Tories lie about being the party of law and order and the Labour party lie about being the party of the NHS and the voters lap it all.

 

Given where the European Union is now in 2019, the first referendum on joining the common market was probably the biggest pack of lies ever put in front of this country.

 

I'm not against democracy at all - but I am against giving you lot a free hit just to overturn something because you didn't like the result and as I've stated a hundred times before - why would any leaver respect the result of a remain win? They wouldn't. 

 

The only reason we are even having this conversation is because for the first time since the franchise was available to all the British people didn't vote for what it's establishment and parliament wanted.

[Leicester_Loyal]

Still the same arguments from both sides being posted in here for over 3 years

 

Labour really are a shambles aren't they, Corbyn is useless.

[Guest MattP]

Sarah Champions confirms - takes it to 10 Labour rebels now voting for the deal.

 

If Boris has the ERG behind him - he's now more than likely got enough to get his deal through.

 

[Strokes]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

Sarah Champions confirms - takes it to 10 Labour rebels now voting for the deal.

 

If Boris has the ERG behind him - he's now more than likely got enough to get his deal through.

 

How funny would it be if his first win in Parliament was the EU withdrawal treaty? 

[FerrisBueller]

49 minutes ago, Astleyfox said:

Im sorry, di-dums. If remain is on a second ballot, you will have millions feeling angry that their decision has been discarded. 

Why? You don't have to vote for it.

[lgfualol]

2 hours ago, Astleyfox said:

I agree. The deal vs no deal. Remain is not an option. 

Why would you leave the most sensible option out of a referendum