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smileysharad

Brexit!

By smileysharad, in General Chat

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Not seen much today other than what's been mentioned on here. 

 

Am I right in thinking that as someone who doesn't want Boris' deal I'm now relying on the ERG to help me out? 

 

If so, shoot me now

Yep.  He's got about 11 Labour and 25 Independents. 

 

According to the FT he's got a majority of two now.

 

The ERG aren't certs though - they might be prepared to gamble this for no deal with the Tories being so far ahead in the polls.

Edited by MattP
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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

A second referendum isn't going to happen.

 

I'm genuinely unsure if this deal is going to get through. It seems to be purely down to the ERG as a few Labour MPs will vote for it, I'd say around 15 or so will.

No guarantee at all the EU are now going to give an extension anyway. They seem to be ready for this to be done. 

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oxford blue

oxford blue

Posted
Posted

From the Leaflet sent to all households before the referundum:

"A once in a generation decision

The referendum on Thursday, 23 June is your chance to decide if we should remain in or leave the European Union.

The government believes it is in the best interests of the UK to remain in the EU.

This is the way to protect jobs, provide security, and strengthen the UK’s economy for every family in this country – a clear path into the future, in contrast to the uncertainty of leaving.

This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide."

 

 From page 24 of 2017 Labour manifesto for 2017 election

"Labour accepts the referendum result"

 

Therefore, given pledges by both main parties, if there has to be a referendum (and don;t the majority of people think this has been going so long it's time to move on?) surely there should be a question as to whether to accept the deal proposed or not? If there is a majority against against the deal, then an extension should be sought - or a general election in the hope a different parliament can make a decision on what they want, rather than what they don't (and then if necessary, another referundum).

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Guest MattP

Guest MattP

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Legend_in_blue said:

 

He doesn't want it.  17.4 million are about to be duped once again.  

Don't assume the 17.4 million support Farage. From what I'm seeing we have overwhelming support for this deal and to finally move on.

 

He's behaving like a moron now, you've won Nigel, retire and earn a few million from writing what would probably be the best political memoir you could write.

 

Can't help but think he's desperate to be relevant and he knows this is it, Boris is now "Mr Brexit" and he's not - I honestly think he'd rather this collapse just so he could lead a movement again.

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Guest BlueBrett

Guest BlueBrett

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mike Oxlong said:

I’d like a second referendum as I think I’m now in a better position to make an informed decision than in 2016. 

Does that mean you'd vote differently then?

 

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bovril

bovril

Posted
Posted

Farage is an interesting one. I know him and Cummings despise each other and he seems very unhappy at Johnson's popularity. Or perhaps he prefers to prolong the disruption in the EU. The fact that he's currently throwing his toys out the pram suggests to me the WA is close to passing. 

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Legend_in_blue

Legend_in_blue

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, MattP said:

Don't assume the 17.4 million support Farage. From what I'm seeing we have overwhelming support for this deal and to finally move on.

 

He's behaving like a moron now, you've won Nigel, retire and earn a few million from writing what would probably be the best political memoir you could write.

 

Can't help but think he's desperate to be relevant and he knows this is it, Boris is now "Mr Brexit" and he's not - I honestly think he'd rather this collapse just so he could lead a movement again.

 

Bojo is putting himself and his party before the country's interest.  I don't always agree with Farage but he's talking more sense than Bojo right now.  Can't trust a word Bojo says.

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Mike Oxlong

Mike Oxlong

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, BlueBrett said:

Does that mean you'd vote differently then?

 

Maybe. Depends on the arguments. 

 

Even if I voted the same I’m sure there are Remainers who would vote leave to honour the first referendum and leavers who’d vote Remain on the basis of the type of Brexit now on the table or with a clearer understanding of what it means. 

 

IMO the information about the benefits and detriments of the options in 2016 was pretty guff. I think the Leave campaign was better organised more effective but misleading and the Remain campaign was complacent and ineffective. I’d just like to think that we were presented with more accurate information about what the alternatives mean now. 

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Strokes said:

No that splits the leave vote.

It should be.

Leave or Remain.

If leave is chosen, Deal or No deal.

If you mean in a single ballot with the option deal or no deal available only to those voting leave, then you really haven’t thought this through.

 

Suppose 52% vote leave, In your scheme (if I’ve understood), these are the only voters who are allowed to choose which version of leave. So if just over half of leave voters choose no deal, this option wins, and the UK crashes out with no deal supported by only about 27% of voters.

 

If that’s not what you meant and everyone gets to say which version of leave they prefer, then that would make more sense though I’d think a single transferable vote would be the most sensible way to do it.

Edited by WigstonWanderer
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Strokes

Strokes

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

If you mean in a single ballot with the option deal or no deal available only to those voting leave, the. you really haven’t thought this through.

 

Suppose 52% vote leave, In your scheme (if I’ve understood), these are the only voters who are allowed to choose which version of leave. So if just over half of leave voters choose no deal, this option wins, and the UK crashes out with no deal supported by only about 27% of voters.

 

If that’s not what you meant and everyone gets to say which version of leave they prefer, then that would make more sense though I’d think a single transferable vote would be the most sensible way to do it.

Yeah that’s exactly what I’m saying, leavers get to dictate what type of leave they want. 
Id accept the single transferable vote but I’d prefer the option if your vote fails you get no further say.

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WigstonWanderer

WigstonWanderer

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Strokes said:

Yeah that’s exactly what I’m saying, leavers get to dictate what type of leave they want. 
Id accept the single transferable vote but I’d prefer the option if your vote fails you get no further say.

But do you get my point that you could have as few as 27% of votes taking the UK out with no deal, whilst 73% would have effectively voted against this outcome? And that’s democratic?

 

Perhaps I’ve misunderstood you.

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Strokes

Strokes

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WigstonWanderer said:

But do you get my point that you could have as few as 27% of votes taking the UK out with no deal, whilst 73% would have effectively voted against this outcome? And that’s democratic?

 

Perhaps I’ve misunderstood you.

Well yes it’s democratic, your vote is out. You think getting 2 shots at remain before leave has happened is Democratic. So let’s raise the stakes.

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Strokes

Strokes

Posted
Posted

If the Letwin amendment gets through. Boris will still have to ask for an extension and even if the treaty passes tomorrow, it will need to be passed again in the commons and then through the lords without amendments to get through before October 31st. Which means Boris has to keep the party deflectors with him for up too 10 days. That would really keep him on his toes if it’s as tight as predicted.

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