Brexit!

[Astleyfox]

5 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

Why? You don't have to vote for it.

Well, thats got to be one of the dumbest replies ive had. 

[FerrisBueller]

4 minutes ago, Astleyfox said:

Well, thats got to be one of the dumbest replies ive had. 

And why is that? It's an option, you don't have to vote for it. What kind of dystopian nightmare are we living in that people complain about being given a choice.

[leicsmac]

This all, sadly, is what I meant by earlier.

 

I'm not saying that discourse here isn't more polite than what happens out in the world but it shows that even if this deal gets through parliament, or if it doesn't, is nowhere near the end of the problems.

 

Can anyone else see a way out that won't result in unrest?

 

[Strokes]

5 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

And why is that? It's an option, you don't have to vote for it. What kind of dystopian nightmare are we living in that people complain about being given a choice.

No deal should also be on the ballot then. Those that chose leave should then get a chance to vote deal or no deal. So nobody can ever accuse us not knowing what we want again.

[Voll Blau]

I think Labour MPs backing the deal because they reckon it'll save their hides by getting potential Brexit Party voters on side in their constituencies are probably mistaken.

 

Oh well, time will tell. Think I'm gonna need a well-stocked spirits cabinet whenever the next election night is...

[KrefelderFox666]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

No deal should also be on the ballot then. Those that chose leave should then get a chance to vote deal or no deal. So nobody can ever accuse us not knowing what we want again.

Do you want to:

 

a) Leave with the proposed deal

b) Leave with no deal

c) Revoke article 50

 

That should be the referendum really. Now that most people have realised what a load of lies the original referendum was, people are able to make a little bit of a more informed decision. It's still an unknown as to which is the "best" option. No one knows if one is better than the other. Leaving just comes with more risks.

[Milo]

1 hour ago, Charl91 said:

 

I know we're re-hashing the same argument ad nauseum, but we'll forever have a sticking point because many (including myself) don't believe it was a genuinely democratic decision, based on

 

1) Lies (and saying both sides did it doesn't make it any better, although I will certainly argue 

2) Whatever-the-opposite-of-splitting-the-vote is (consolidating all possible fantasy Brexits under one banner)

 

I've always said I'd have gritted my teeth and got on with it if I thought there had been any legitimacy to the democratic vote, but the whole thing was a sham.

 

Or course, now we have 2 concrete options, you could actually see what the democratic will of the people would be given two concrete options. But I feel like Brexit voters suddenly aren't interested in democracy anymore.

To be honest, pretty much every GE manifesto and pre-election campaigning ever run has had an element of untruths/exaggerations/lies/misdirection, etc...If we have a system whereby another election (referendum) is rerun because it might not be truthful then we wouldn't really get anywhere, would we?

 

That last sentence of your post is pure gold, btw   

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Voll Blau said:

I think Labour MPs backing the deal because they reckon it'll save their hides by getting potential Brexit Party voters on side in their constituencies are probably mistaken.

 

Oh well, time will tell. Think I'm gonna need a well-stocked spirits cabinet whenever the next election night is...

Impossible to tell but after Brexit I think the Brexit party will be dead in the same way UKIP was after the 2016 referendum. I think that may be part of the reasoning for this (the other bonus is it surely spells the end for the jew baiters running it after the next election)

 

David Guake is behind the deal now so that's around 10 Labour rebels and pretty much all the expelled Tories apart from Grieve, Bebb and Greening. 

 

The only people who can really stop this now are the ERG types - if they do they can go fcuk themselves tbh.

[Izzy]

8 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

This all, sadly, is what I meant by earlier.

 

I'm not saying that discourse here isn't more polite than what happens out in the world but it shows that even if this deal gets through parliament, or if it doesn't, is nowhere near the end of the problems.

 

Can anyone else see a way out that won't result in unrest?

 

I’m hanging my hat on this whole Brexit thing being another ‘millennium bug’ scare story.

 

We all wake up on November 1st and get on with our lives again just the same as before 

[ousefox]

Wonderful. Although experts and government officials are all bias and shouldn't make predictions. 

[Guest MattP]

Starting to look like he has the numbers.

 

Wonder what the speaker and Grieve can cook up to try and stop this vote happening? I'll be amazed if we don't see something to try it before tomorrow. 

[Astleyfox]

22 minutes ago, FerrisBueller said:

And why is that? It's an option, you don't have to vote for it. What kind of dystopian nightmare are we living in that people complain about being given a choice.

Theres already been a vote with the option to remain. It was defeated. I would support the deal, some want a clean break. If theres to be another vote, I believe they should be the options. 

[FerrisBueller]

16 minutes ago, Strokes said:

No deal should also be on the ballot then. Those that chose leave should then get a chance to vote deal or no deal. So nobody can ever accuse us not knowing what we want again.

Absolutely, as someone else has mentioned;

Leave with no deal

Leave with a deal

Remain

All possibilities thoroughly explained and assessed.

[FerrisBueller]

1 minute ago, Astleyfox said:

Theres already been a vote with the option to remain. It was defeated. I would support the deal, some want a clean break. If theres to be another vote, I believe they should be the options. 

So we can never vote on it again? Demographics change, as do opinions. You may have your heels dug in the 'leave camp' but have you ever considered that the public may have changed their minds? Given all the misinformation and lies that were told and given the last 3 years of shambolic negotiations, the public are probably entitled to another say.

[Strokes]

20 minutes ago, KrefelderFox666 said:

Do you want to:

 

a) Leave with the proposed deal

b) Leave with no deal

c) Revoke article 50

 

That should be the referendum really. Now that most people have realised what a load of lies the original referendum was, people are able to make a little bit of a more informed decision. It's still an unknown as to which is the "best" option. No one knows if one is better than the other. Leaving just comes with more risks.

No that splits the leave vote.

It should be.

Leave or Remain.

If leave is chosen, Deal or No deal.

[Guest MattP]

Melanie Onn 11th Labour MP to say she'll vote for the deal.

 

Here's the letter from Corbyn, doesn't appear they will even remove the whip from people voting for the Boris deal - don't doubt he's secretly happy to see Brexit, but surely he must realise he's finished after this as a possible PM?

 

Did he ever really want the job?

[Heathrow fox]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

Melanie Onn 11th Labour MP to say she'll vote for the deal.

 

Here's the letter from Corbyn, doesn't appear they will even remove the whip from people voting for the Boris deal - don't doubt he's secretly happy to see Brexit, but surely he must realise he's finished after this as a possible PM?

 

Did he ever really want the job?

Being MP for Grimsby hardly surprising 😂

[Alf Bentley]

12 minutes ago, Izzy said:

I’m hanging my hat on this whole Brexit thing being another ‘millennium bug’ scare story.

 

We all wake up on November 1st and get on with our lives again just the same as before 

 

If the deal goes through, that's pretty much guaranteed short-term, isn't it? We'd be in a transition period until the end of 2020, with almost no change to previous arrangements (except no representation at EU institutions?).

 

It wouldn't surprise me if there was an economic upturn in the short-term as there'll be more (short-term) economic certainty, so businesses might invest more and consumers spend more.

I even imagine that Brexit won't be top of the news agendas for at least 9 months.....wouldn't that'd be amazing....

 

But the big question then is what happens after December 2020 if no trade agreement or deal on future EU-UK relations is done and we're heading into a No Deal exit, or if we've signed up to a loose, limited relationship with heavy tariffs/restrictions due to Tory deregulation/divergence/undercutting. A pile of shite postponed in the event of No Deal in Jan. 2021, or years of slow economic/social decline if we have a limited trade deal, I'd say. Or will be have dozens of great global trade deals?

 

Anyway, that's a long way off and a lot could happen in the meantime:

- The deal could yet be defeated tomorrow (some of the Brexiteers wetting their union jack boxers at the prospect of victory would look a bit silly then.....).

- We could still end up with No Deal in a fortnight if the deal falls and the extension is refused (unlikely but no Millennium Bug scare if it happens)

- Extension & election could yet happen

- Election is pretty much a given, and a very different one than expected if the deal is done. Everyone (myself included) assumes that would hand Boris a majority......but that's probably what Churchill thought at the 1945 election

- Or, with a bit of luck, Johnson will have been convicted of handing taxpayer's cash to that giddy blond American woman & will be languishing in a dungeon at the Tower of London having his liver pecked out by the ravens....

[Guest MattP]

8 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

If the deal goes through, that's pretty much guaranteed short-term, isn't it? We'd be in a transition period until the end of 2020, with almost no change to previous arrangements (except no representation at EU institutions?).

 

It wouldn't surprise me if there was an economic upturn in the short-term as there'll be more (short-term) economic certainty, so businesses might invest more and consumers spend more.

I even imagine that Brexit won't be top of the news agendas for at least 9 months.....wouldn't that'd be amazing....

 

But the big question then is what happens after December 2020 if no trade agreement or deal on future EU-UK relations is done and we're heading into a No Deal exit, or if we've signed up to a loose, limited relationship with heavy tariffs/restrictions due to Tory deregulation/divergence/undercutting. A pile of shite postponed in the event of No Deal in Jan. 2021, or years of slow economic/social decline if we have a limited trade deal, I'd say. Or will be have dozens of great global trade deals?

 

Anyway, that's a long way off and a lot could happen in the meantime:

- The deal could yet be defeated tomorrow (some of the Brexiteers wetting their union jack boxers at the prospect of victory would look a bit silly then.....).

- We could still end up with No Deal in a fortnight if the deal falls and the extension is refused (unlikely but no Millennium Bug scare if it happens)

- Extension & election could yet happen

- Election is pretty much a given, and a very different one than expected if the deal is done. Everyone (myself included) assumes that would hand Boris a majority......but that's probably what Churchill thought at the 1945 election

- Or, with a bit of luck, Johnson will have been convicted of handing taxpayer's cash to that giddy blond American woman & will be languishing in a dungeon at the Tower of London having his liver pecked out by the ravens....

Still not over the line, it looks like he has the numbers but the ERG appear to still be holding out. Francois just came out of Downing Street looking like someone had fed his dinner to the cat. If they vote it down they deserve to lose Brexit quite frankly.

 

The Churchill 1945 point is an excellent one - if Brexit is passed I fully expect the BP to die - which means realistically Labour will still hold onto its seats in the North and Midlands on the back of leave voters not having to switch (either to BP to let Tories in or vice versa) - coupled with that you would still expect the Lib Dems to take out a lot of remain seats from either party in the south. 

 

Instead of a Boris coronation you could end up with an even bigger mess in parliament than we had after the last election. 

 

You are then looking at Corbyn negotiating the trade deal needing Tory votes to get it through

[Carl the Llama]

43 minutes ago, Strokes said:

No that splits the leave vote.

It should be.

Leave or Remain.

If leave is chosen, Deal or No deal.

Transferable vote.  If there's no clear majority after round 1, eliminate the lowest scoring option and whoever voted for it has their vote pass to their 2nd choice.  And because we know Farage and his supporters famously won't accept a 52-48 split as final we should set the bar at 55% to win.  If no option achieves that then we must conclude that there's no strong enough mandate for the UK to leave the EU and reject Article 50.  Everybody's happy.  

[Guest MattP]

Although @Alf Bentley Boris does seem to have enough even on the more Labour friendly polling surveys at this point in time - though that can change.

 

 

[Charl91]

1 hour ago, Strokes said:

No that splits the leave vote.

It should be.

Leave or Remain.

If leave is chosen, Deal or No deal.

Yup, I've always said that would be the most sensible option.For me, the choice of a second referendum is the only "democratic" solution to this, and probably the only way that could possibly heal some of the divisions in the country.

 

We had an advisory referendum that gave indication that a lot of people wanted to leave the EU, but not on what terms. We know by now pretty much what Brexit entails (and anyone who said that they knew exactly what it would be like pre-referendum is simply not being truthful). So knowing what we know now, the state of play is...

 

1). The majority of voters now want Brexit (deal or no deal)

2). The majority of voters now don't want Brexit

 

If the majority of people want Brexit, then surely a second referendum is not a problem for Brexit voters; it confirms it as a valid democratic decision in a slightly less rigged manner, it stops the accusations of people not knowing what they were voting for, and it lets remainers like me believe that it is genuinely what people want, and it wasn't just people being duped by false £350m figures.

 

And if it turns out that the majority of people don't want Brexit, then it's crazy (and undemocratic) to implement a decision that a majority doesn't want. And if turns out that it's what the majority doesn't want now, then it's going to get messy a few years down the line when we're not as prosperous as some thought we might be, and the shine and novelty of going against the status quo wears off.

 

 

Edited 18 October 2019 by Charl91

[Guest MattP]

I get the argument for a second referendum, I don't agree with it but there is no desire or mechanism for it that is realistic now. 

 

If Remain was polling at 60% then we might have argument for a mandate for it - but polling hasn't changed despite all the claims of demographic change etc 

 

Also to suggest this could "heal the divisions" in any way for me is borderline insanity. It would be twice as brutal and divisive as the last one.

 

Plus as I've said, it solves nothing. Leave wins we are still here, Remain wins then where do go? Do we check every year after, every two years? Every four? Or do you think you can just cancel it and we'll all just go "yeah ok lads you won that one fair and square" all is good. As I've said before you'll get a Brexit majority at the next election just as they now do with the 45% in Scotland every time.

 

You could unleash demons you can't control. 

 

We also have no idea what Brexit means - we don't even have a clue what the trade deal will be, we don't know how Stormont will vote, we are as in the dark in the future as we were in the first referendum when we signed up to a common market and ended up having things like freedom of movement and an European Court as our highest jurisdiction. 

[Mike Oxlong]

There is some force in Boris’s argument for getting Brexit done so that we can once again devote our attention to the things that really matter

 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

1 minute ago, Mike Oxlong said:

There is some force in Boris’s argument for getting Brexit done so that we can once again devote our attention to the things that really matter

 

 

 

Well now the porn block policy is going the Tories should hit 60% in the polls.