FT General Election Poll 2019

[Guest MattP]

Still three weeks to go, but they must be getting twitchy in Labour HQ now.

 

Please no disasters in the Tory manifesto tomorrow.

Edited 23 November 2019 by MattP

[st albans fox]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Still three weeks to go, but they must be getting twitchy in Labour HQ now.

 

Please no disasters in the Tory manifesto tomorrow.

Three weeks still provides plenty of time for the electorate to get bored of the Tory single message ....... and corbyn is an excellent campaigner ...... stuff happens and there’s every chance that the stuff that may happen over the  next couple weeks may close the gap ....even without any big mishaps, I expect the gap to close and the tories to manage a max majority around 20. some ‘ badish’ things happen and another hung parliament again more than possible 

[SecretPro]

5 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Three weeks still provides plenty of time for the electorate to get bored of the Tory single message ....... and corbyn is an excellent campaigner ...... stuff happens and there’s every chance that the stuff that may happen over the  next couple weeks may close the gap ....even without any big mishaps, I expect the gap to close and the tories to manage a max majority around 20. some ‘ badish’ things happen and another hung parliament again more than possible 

Suspect when somebody finally gets round to publishing those Arron Banks leaks it could be a turning point...

[Dirkster the Fox]

Labour will be getting worried now,

 

Bit of your own medicine.......................pardon the pun..........

 

Boris Johnson is pledging to end NHS hospital car parking charges for millions of patients, relatives and staff as he prepares to unveil an election manifesto designed to take on Jeremy Corbyn on the health service and the cost of living.

[bovril]

5 minutes ago, SecretPro said:

Suspect when somebody finally gets round to publishing those Arron Banks leaks it could be a turning point...

I doubt it. People who care about that type of thing probably won't be voting Conservative anyway. 

[Dirkster the Fox]

2 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Labour will be getting worried now,

 

Bit of your own medicine.......................pardon the pun..........

 

Boris Johnson is pledging to end NHS hospital car parking charges for millions of patients, relatives and staff as he prepares to unveil an election manifesto designed to take on Jeremy Corbyn on the health service and the cost of living.

Parking costs are real and Pi$$ people off. This will resonate as a real improvement for those family members attending hospitals regularly to see relatives..

[David Guiza]

9 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Parking costs are real and Pi$$ people off. This will resonate as a real improvement for those family members attending hospitals regularly to see relatives..

Can't imagine where they got that idea from 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/08/labour-end-hospital-car-parking-charges-england-corbyn

[Dirkster the Fox]

29 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

Can't imagine where they got that idea from 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/08/labour-end-hospital-car-parking-charges-england-corbyn

Yep the reality of free for all would be a HUGE failure, as always.

 

Targeted, relevant and supportive policy much better

[Dirkster the Fox]

On 22/11/2019 at 10:41, Carl the Llama said:

I'll cover the tax contributions for life of the first person able to reasonably explain why the deliberately misleading sharing of information by the governing political party and a private citizen's obvious joke/troll page are equivalently concerning matters.

 

Awkwardly the only person showing hysterical outrage here is the man shouting about Marxists and ending their posts with numerous exclamation points as they defend government disinformation campaigns.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

[Guest MattP]

9 hours ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

Parking costs are real and Pi$$ people off. This will resonate as a real improvement for those family members attending hospitals regularly to see relatives..

It's a vote winning policy - happy with that. What a contrast to the manifesto under May.

 

Big call for JC now, maybe promise to also end them and refund your previous car park charges?

 

Big policy from Labour as well today. They've clearly forgot to put this in the manifesto, seen Boris struggling with it on QT and now just thrown it in anyway

Edited 24 November 2019 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

Scotland polling isn't reflecting what a lot of the media are telling us about an SNP landslide.

 

The SNP wouldn't make many gains on this evidence, just take a few seats off Labour and maybe a couple off the Tories. 

 

Swinson wouldn't be totally safe either on these numbers.

 

Time for Boris to double down on no second referendum and try and sweep up more of the unionist vote.

[Dirkster the Fox]

3 hours ago, MattP said:

It's a vote winning policy - happy with that. What a contrast to the manifesto under May.

 

Big call for JC now, maybe promise to also end them and refund your previous car park charges?

 

Big policy from Labour as well today. They've clearly forgot to put this in the manifesto, seen Boris struggling with it on QT and now just thrown it in anyway

How can you now pledge to spend another huge £58 Billion, not include anything about it in your manifesto two days earlier and be taken seriously?   

[Alf Bentley]

14 minutes ago, Dirkster the Fox said:

How can you now pledge to spend another huge £58 Billion, not include anything about it in your manifesto two days earlier and be taken seriously?   

 

I have to admit that this is cynical stuff - an opportunistic response to Johnson getting put on the spot the other day & an attempt to divert attention from the Tory "Get Brexit done" message, I presume?

 

Labour did address the issue in their manifesto, but the only commitment seems to have been "to work with these women to design a system of recompense". No specific commitment, never mind a costed £58bn commitment.

Here's the relevant bit of the Labour manifesto (under "Pensions" section): https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/tackle-poverty-and-inequality/

 

We all know that politicians make promises they can't keep during elections, but it's going much further than normal on all sides.....

- Usual Tory line: "We'll provide you with brilliant public services but will also cut your taxes"

- 2019 Tory line: "We'll spend massively more on public services but will not increase your taxes"

- Usual Labour line: "We'll spend massively more on public services but will not increase your taxes (or not much)"

- 2019 Labour line: "We'll increase public spending by unprecedented amounts, more than twice the massive Tory increases, and big business/the rich will fund it all"

 

Andrew Rawnsley makes a similar point here re. the parties' claims on Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/24/there-is-no-more-deceptive-slogan-of-this-campaign-than-get-brexit-done

- The Labour claim that they'll "get Brexit sorted" within 6 months is dubious, to say the least. But the Tory claim that they'll "get Brexit done" is equally dubious, except in the narrow sense that we'd pass the WA & formally leave the EU. We'd also enter a transition period and massively difficult negotiations about the future EU-UK relationship, almost immediately facing new Brexit deadlines/crises, potentially leading to either a further extension to transition for years of negotiations or a departure on very remote, frosty terms with high trade friction & economic damage, possibly even a No Deal disaster in a year's time. Anyone who thinks Brexit will be "done" is seriously deluded.

 

The one prediction we can safely make is that, whoever wins the election, tens of millions of people are going to be massively disappointed - and the cynicism and alienation that we see now re. our democratic system will pale into insignificance compared to where we'll be in a couple of years. I seriously fear for democracy and public order in this country over the long-term.

 

At the moment, it looks as if the Tories will still be in Govt when that happens. But it's little consolation to me to think of the whirlwind of anger & disillusionment that they'll face by 2021 or so. The outlook is bleak & Labour will face similar anger & disillusionment in the unlikely event that they end up leading a minority govt or something. 

[RobHawk]

59 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

I have to admit that this is cynical stuff - an opportunistic response to Johnson getting put on the spot the other day & an attempt to divert attention from the Tory "Get Brexit done" message, I presume?

 

Labour did address the issue in their manifesto, but the only commitment seems to have been "to work with these women to design a system of recompense". No specific commitment, never mind a costed £58bn commitment.

Here's the relevant bit of the Labour manifesto (under "Pensions" section): https://labour.org.uk/manifesto/tackle-poverty-and-inequality/

 

We all know that politicians make promises they can't keep during elections, but it's going much further than normal on all sides.....

- Usual Tory line: "We'll provide you with brilliant public services but will also cut your taxes"

- 2019 Tory line: "We'll spend massively more on public services but will not increase your taxes"

- Usual Labour line: "We'll spend massively more on public services but will not increase your taxes (or not much)"

- 2019 Labour line: "We'll increase public spending by unprecedented amounts, more than twice the massive Tory increases, and big business/the rich will fund it all"

 

Andrew Rawnsley makes a similar point here re. the parties' claims on Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/24/there-is-no-more-deceptive-slogan-of-this-campaign-than-get-brexit-done

- The Labour claim that they'll "get Brexit sorted" within 6 months is dubious, to say the least. But the Tory claim that they'll "get Brexit done" is equally dubious, except in the narrow sense that we'd pass the WA & formally leave the EU. We'd also enter a transition period and massively difficult negotiations about the future EU-UK relationship, almost immediately facing new Brexit deadlines/crises, potentially leading to either a further extension to transition for years of negotiations or a departure on very remote, frosty terms with high trade friction & economic damage, possibly even a No Deal disaster in a year's time. Anyone who thinks Brexit will be "done" is seriously deluded.

 

The one prediction we can safely make is that, whoever wins the election, tens of millions of people are going to be massively disappointed - and the cynicism and alienation that we see now re. our democratic system will pale into insignificance compared to where we'll be in a couple of years. I seriously fear for democracy and public order in this country over the long-term.

 

At the moment, it looks as if the Tories will still be in Govt when that happens. But it's little consolation to me to think of the whirlwind of anger & disillusionment that they'll face by 2021 or so. The outlook is bleak & Labour will face similar anger & disillusionment in the unlikely event that they end up leading a minority govt or something. 

In conclusion, they're all a bunch of pricks

[Foxin_Mad]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

The outlook is bleak & Labour will face similar anger & disillusionment in the unlikely event that they end up leading a minority govt or something. 

If you are a tribal Labour supporter, honestly the best thing is for them to remain out of power whilst they are ran and infiltrated by the hard left momentum activists.

 

The party needs to purge these bitter nasty mouth frothing types and return to the centre left if they ever wish to win an election and represent normal working people again.

 

This whole rhetoric that the rich and business are the route of all evil is not good for a functioning economy.

 

If Labour somehow got a majority and were able to implement this nutty manifesto, there would be an immense amount of anger when the unions are given rights to hold sympathy strikes bringing the country to its knees....again, jobs are lost due to minimum wage and tax increases, prices rise due to business passing on the cost of wage increases. It's the stuff of nightmares. Any normal man or woman who has a job and wishes to keep it would do well not to vote for Labour. Labour voters now are either those who have absolutely nothing or those who have enough that they think they will be immune from the scatter brain policies.

 

 

[Charl91]

Campaigning from all sides is absolutely dire, to be honest. I can't defend Labour's manifesto - some nice ideas, if you have 30 years to implement them, but clearly you can't implement all that stuff - and the less said about Boris the better. Jo Swinson has single-handedly put me off voting for the Lib Dems. The best-led party at the moment seems to be the bloody SNP, which speaks volumes.

 

Going to have to vote Labour, because I'll vote for whoever gives me the best chance of ousting Andrew Bridgen, but I can't say I'm too happy about it. 

[Ginger_Filbert]

A how many seat majority is classed as a landslide victory?

[SMX11]

That Tory manifesto is rather pedestrian, I guess they just want to get over the line. 

[Alf Bentley]

2 hours ago, Foxin_Mad said:

If you are a tribal Labour supporter, honestly the best thing is for them to remain out of power whilst they are ran and infiltrated by the hard left momentum activists.

 

The party needs to purge these bitter nasty mouth frothing types and return to the centre left if they ever wish to win an election and represent normal working people again.

 

This whole rhetoric that the rich and business are the route of all evil is not good for a functioning economy.

 

If Labour somehow got a majority and were able to implement this nutty manifesto, there would be an immense amount of anger when the unions are given rights to hold sympathy strikes bringing the country to its knees....again, jobs are lost due to minimum wage and tax increases, prices rise due to business passing on the cost of wage increases. It's the stuff of nightmares. Any normal man or woman who has a job and wishes to keep it would do well not to vote for Labour. Labour voters now are either those who have absolutely nothing or those who have enough that they think they will be immune from the scatter brain policies.

 

 

 

What @Charl91 says about the Labour manifesto in the post below yours sums it up for me: "some nice ideas, if you have 30 years to implement them".

 

Let's face it, there are really only 3 potential outcomes to this election, in descending order of likelihood: Tory majority (most likely), Tory minority or Labour minority.

A Labour majority is almost as unlikely as a Lib Dem govt, doubtless part of the reason why Labour can publish a wish-list rather than a programme for govt, knowing they'll never have unrestricted power to implement it.

 

Of those 3 broad outcomes, a Labour minority is the best - a Brexit referendum, some of the better manifesto policies but heavily restrained by moderates in their own ranks & by whoever (SNP? LDs?) keeps them in power.

Second-best option is a Tory minority so as to probably avoid a No Deal Brexit & the worst excesses of a hard right Tory govt. under an erratic, probably corrupt, power-crazed narcissist with contempt for truth & democracy.

 

I could apply the rest of your post to the prospect of a Tory majority govt: "bitter nasty mouth-frothing types" from the hard right, thousands of members having arrived from UKIP with moderate MPs expelled or retired & an increasingly hard-right parliamentary party. Obviously, you won't agree, but I see the main danger to us at the moment as being from a Tory majority (no chance of a Lab majority) with major damage caused by either an arm's-length relationship with the EU or No Deal, shrinking tax revenues and inevitably leading to austerity on steroids given the lack of cash for public services & the ideological preferences of the 2019-20 Tory party membership & parliamentary party....possibly along with massive disillusionment with democracy if it takes years to sort out the future EU-UK relationship and/or the economy/public services turn to shit (after a brief post-election splurge by Boris before the transition period ends & Brexit reality kicks in).

 

I plan to vote Green to help kick climate change up the political agenda, as I'm in a "safe seat", like the majority, where votes don't really matter under our stupid electoral system.

But for me: Radical but balanced, responsible Lab Govt > Corbyn minority > Tory minority > Tory majority......... Unfortunately, the first option is unavailable (& Corbyn majority simply ain't happening).

 

[SecretPro]

Might emigrate to Scandinavia.

[Salisbury Fox]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

A Labour majority is almost as unlikely as a Lib Dem govt, doubtless part of the reason why Labour can publish a wish-list rather than a programme for govt, knowing they'll never have unrestricted power to implement it

I don’t think this approach is helpful in the longer term as Labour voters will no doubt have very unrealistic expectations if/when they ever get in. Unless of course you actually believe it is possible to do everything that they are pledging.

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, Salisbury Fox said:

I don’t think this approach is helpful in the longer term as Labour voters will no doubt have very unrealistic expectations if/when they ever get in. Unless of course you actually believe it is possible to do everything that they are pledging.

 

I agree that it's unhelpful and raises unrealistic expectations - and don't believe it's possible to do everything they're pledging, at least not in a 5-year term; in 30 years, maybe, as Charl91 said.

Possible to introduce a few radical policies in 5-10 years (e.g. housing initiative, regional investment, green new deal, gradually bring rail services back in house) & do a few things quickly (e.g. public sector pay, nurses' bursaries).

 

But parties have usually made unrealistic election promises throughout my lifetime. I suppose Blair in 1997 was an exception, as he deliberately lowered expectations & made strictly limited promises.

At most elections, the Tories have promised fantastic tax cuts with no decline in public services and Labour have promised much better public services with no tax rises. Parties mostly assume (possibly correctly) that voters don't want to hear the truth and that making unrealistic promises wins votes.

 

But there's very little chance of Labour winning a majority and being "found out" this time - whereas there is a big chance of that happening immediately with the Tories.

If Boris wins a majority, what will voters say in 1-2 years when Brexit isn't "done" in any meaningful sense (out of the EU, maybe, but still tied up in either negotiations over future relationship or consequences of a Hard Brexit)?

Their spending promises aren't as extravagant as Labour's, but their "get Brexit done" promise is as misleading as anything Labour is promising, in a different way.

 

What will voters say, too, when the promises of more money for schools, hospitals & police without tax rises or irresponsible borrowing prove to be lies? Boris might be able to splash the cash for a year or two, through borrowing, while we're still trading under EU terms during the transition period and the economy isn't too bad....but a year or two down the line, he'll have to resume austerity, unless he opts to raise taxes or seriously jack up national debt. That's assuming there isn't a brilliant new EU-UK trade deal where we get a really close trading relationship & great SM access while still being able to diverge under national policy (if not that, what's the point of Brexit?), and assuming there aren't great new generous trade deals signed to open up unprecedented global trade. We don't even here Brexiteers say that they expect that to happen these days.....

[FerrisBueller]

https://www.johnsweeney.co.uk/?p=letter.to.ofcom

 

interesting read from a BBC whistleblower.

[katieakita]

Run a Post office so the conduct of the Conservatives and Lib Dems really does narrow down my choices, as for politicians and political parties lying, fair to say they all do but some affect you less than others

[SecretPro]

For ****s sake, and this blundering twat is getting a majority? I'm done.

 

 

Edited 24 November 2019 by SecretPro