Coronavirus Thread

[Paninistickers]

22 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Yes - let’s infect the younger generations with a disease that we have no idea what it’s long term effects will be on them ??

Horse has bolted. 

 

It's either get the disease or inject a synthetic/mutated version of it in the form of a vaccine. Until 65% of punters have done one or the other, it's not going away

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Horse has bolted. 

 

It's either get the disease or inject a synthetic/mutated version of it in the form of a vaccine. Until 65% of punters have done one or the other, it's not going away

The synthetic (non live) version is preferred ........ in the absence of a vaccine in twelve months time we may need to reconsider our approach ....

[Lionator]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Then you could've / would've stayed at home and sealed yourself off. That's fair enough.

I work in a hospital lab, it’s not that simple. 

[Lionator]

40 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

The synthetic (non live) version is preferred ........ in the absence of a vaccine in twelve months time we may need to reconsider our approach ....

A vaccine is coming, there’s no way at this stage that at least of the trialled ones doesn’t work based on phase 1 and phase 2 studies. Why let a very dangerous virus rampage through the population when you could just be patient and sensible for a few more months? 

[WigstonWanderer]

7 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

Well based on comments on herd Immunity via the post you'd replied to.....and your own comments regarding low deaths in proportion to lowering ages of infection....it does beg the question why under 40s were ever locked down in the first place. 

 

A golden chance to build herd Immunity via the young, during the summer (when contagiousness is less aggressive) has been blown thanks to collective world government panic and hysteria

That is not at all the conclusion I’d draw. Firstly, this is all highly speculative at this stage, and even more so in the early stages of the epidemic when little was known about the virus. All the assumptions by the authorities, including the Chief Medical and Scientific Officers in England, were that at least 60% of the population would need to be infected to achieve Herd Immunity, and this may still be the case. Even if what I posted is confirmed by subsequent data, there is no guarantee that immunity will last. 
 

Without lockdown, the virus would have ripped through even faster, and the resulting peak would have overflowed hospital capacity, led to more collateral damage, and probably taken the lives of more health workers.

 

Lastly, slowing down the rate of new cases by imposing a lockdown has allowed time to develop new treatments, better organise health responses, etc.

Edited 8 August 2020 by WigstonWanderer

[Sampson]

It's not even just waiting for a vaccine. In the 5 or 6 months since lockdown we've already had a couple of very big bits of progress in steroids and drugs which improve treatment which could easily be mass produced over the next 6 months with the world's industry behind it.

 

If it gets to a point where vaccines and treatments are ineffective then we'd probably have no choice. Letting it out on the population now while there's high hopes for a vaccine and/or improved trreatment over the next 6-12 months though when we don't know the long term impacts would be sick and demented.

Edited 8 August 2020 by Sampson

[yorkie1999]

5 hours ago, Lionator said:

A vaccine is coming, there’s no way at this stage that at least of the trialled ones doesn’t work based on phase 1 and phase 2 studies. Why let a very dangerous virus rampage through the population when you could just be patient and sensible for a few more months? 

I’m not so sure, aren’t vaccines specific to a strain of a virus and as a virus mutates, a vaccine needs to mutate along with it, so in theory, they could be developing a vaccine for a virus that it is no longer relevant to.

[Trumpet]

15 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I’m not so sure, aren’t vaccines specific to a strain of a virus and as a virus mutates, a vaccine needs to mutate along with it, so in theory, they could be developing a vaccine for a virus that it is no longer relevant to.

You’re right, I think. One of the vaccines in development attacks the protein spikes the virus uses to enter the hosts cells (I think this is the Oxford vaccine). Not sure how likely a mutation which would change the fundamentals of the virus is, but hopefully quite low especially given it doesn’t seem to have mutated drastically so far. 
 

I could of course be talking garbage. Just picking out bits of what I’ve read over the past few months.

[yorkie1999]

16 minutes ago, Wet Trump said:

You’re right, I think. One of the vaccines in development attacks the protein spikes the virus uses to enter the hosts cells (I think this is the Oxford vaccine). Not sure how likely a mutation which would change the fundamentals of the virus is, but hopefully quite low especially given it doesn’t seem to have mutated drastically so far. 
 

I could of course be talking garbage. Just picking out bits of what I’ve read over the past few months.

Maybe they will wait till they have enough for everyone so we can all be vaccinated at the same time to kill the virus off so it can’t mutate 

[Paninistickers]

This isn't aimed at making any point it parallel to Covid, but how often have people actually contracted flu? As in proper flu, not a cold. 

 

I reckon twice, tops. I had it at about 15 and presumably once since then in the following 30 years (as my memory vaguely tells me the one at 15 wasn't the only time) 

 

Edited to add, I've never had a flu jab...

Edited 8 August 2020 by Paninistickers

[st albans fox]

16 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

This isn't aimed at making any point it parallel to Covid, but how often have people actually contracted flu? As in proper flu, not a cold. 

 

I reckon twice, tops. I had it at about 15 and presumably once since then in the following 30 years (as my memory vaguely tells me the one at 15 wasn't the only time) 

 

Edited to add, I've never had a flu jab...

  I don’t recall ever having proper flu .....in early March I mused that this may make me less likely to contract covid ........ got that spectacularly wrong!

[WigstonWanderer]

2 hours ago, Paninistickers said:

This isn't aimed at making any point it parallel to Covid, but how often have people actually contracted flu? As in proper flu, not a cold. 

 

I reckon twice, tops. I had it at about 15 and presumably once since then in the following 30 years (as my memory vaguely tells me the one at 15 wasn't the only time) 

 

Edited to add, I've never had a flu jab...

I doubt I’ve had it. My wife had it many years ago, and still remembers it as being as being the worst she’s ever felt. Took weeks to recover.

[Desabafar]

11 hours ago, Lionator said:

A vaccine is coming, there’s no way at this stage that at least of the trialled ones doesn’t work based on phase 1 and phase 2 studies. Why let a very dangerous virus rampage through the population when you could just be patient and sensible for a few more months? 

 

I don't think that is right. I have read a lot of people say a vaccine isn't guaranteed or not soon. Just in The Times this weekend "a figure playing a leading role in the search" has told the government there's a one third chance of ever having a vaccine

[simFox]

THIS IS NOT THE KILLER WE THOUGT IT WAS.

 

We need to get back to 2019 normal and fast. More people are dieing now from non Covid deaths, the numbers dead by Covid are not a true representation as admitted by ONS. Sweden did it right. Deaths are not increasing despite more cases in US, it will be all over for them by end of August. It only affects wean and vulnerable, so shield them, the rest of us are fine. There is even evidence showing that herd immunity is achieved much lower and that previous Corona infections has produced antibodies.

 

This is not as bad as we thought, we need to stop the lockdowns, more people will die from that than anything else. Covid is done.

 

https://f1000research.com/articles/9-285

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

Edited 9 August 2020 by simFox

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, simFox said:

THIS IS NOT THE KILLER WE THOUGT IT WAS.

 

We need to get back to 2019 normal and fast. More people are dieing now from non Covid deaths, the numbers dead by Covid are not a true representation as admitted by ONS. Sweden did it right. Deaths are not increasing despite more cases in US, it will be all over for them by end of August. It only affects wean and vulnerable, so shield them, the rest of us are fine. There is even evidence showing that herd immunity is achieved much lower and that previous Corona infections has produced antibodies.

 

This is not as bad as we thought, we need to stop the lockdowns, more people will die from that than anything else. Covid is done.

 

https://f1000research.com/articles/9-285

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

Pardon me, but I'm not entirely sure that it's just the deaths that are problematic, here.

 

Mass hospitalisations from Covid that a relaxing of lockdown/social distancing would lead to will itself lead directly to exactly the same kind of problems stated here as healthcare systems, followed by workplaces and economies, struggle to cope anyway - to say nothing of the lack of knowledge about possible long-term complications some Covid patients who are otherwise young and healthy could well be saddled with which would put a strain on healthcare for years to come.

[simFox]

The most sinister part of the Govts response to this has been the way they have embraced and used behaviour change techniques to influence us all. It is worth reading some of ther SPI-B papers released by SAGE:

Particularly this 22nd March document:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

[simFox]

Just now, leicsmac said:

Pardon me, but I'm not entirely sure that it's just the deaths that are problematic, here.

 

Mass hospitalisations from Covid that a relaxing of lockdown/social distancing would lead to will itself lead directly to exactly the same kind of problems stated here as healthcare systems, followed by workplaces and economies, struggle to cope anyway - to say nothing of the lack of knowledge about possible long-term complications some Covid patients who are otherwise young and healthy could well be saddled with which would put a strain on healthcare for years to come.

Is that why they are dismantling the nightingales, despite the second wave? Our hospitals are virtually empty of covid patients. This virus is burned of already, the problem is the government panders to opinion to stay in power, not the facts. 

 

People aren't dieing in the US like they thought they would despite the increase in cases, it's just not happening.

[leicsmac]

8 minutes ago, simFox said:

Is that why they are dismantling the nightingales, despite the second wave? Our hospitals are virtually empty of covid patients. This virus is burned of already, the problem is the government panders to opinion to stay in power, not the facts. 

 

People aren't dieing in the US like they thought they would despite the increase in cases, it's just not happening.

No, that is all because the current regimen the UK has in place is working. Get rid of this, and the whole thing starts again.

 

I'm lucky enough to be in a place where they managed to get on top of things early and distancing/wearing a mask is considered polite civic duty rather than onerous and as such it's almost business as normal, but there's still cases popping up every day when some restriction or other is lifted (most recent one is churches).

 

You'll get no argument from me on the mendacity of government (particularly the US one), but I don't see the dying tailing off in the US, either (see below) - it seems pretty consistent over the last few months to me. I'm sure that the current US government would like the dying to be over by the end of August (election season, after all), but I strongly doubt it will be the case.

 

 

Edited 9 August 2020 by leicsmac

[simFox]

5 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

No, that is all because the current regimen the UK has in place is working. Get rid of this, and the whole thing starts again.

 

I'm lucky enough to be in a place where they managed to get on top of things early and distancing/wearing a mask is considered polite civic duty rather than onerous and as such it's almost business as normal, but there's still cases popping up every day when some restriction or other is lifted (most recent one is churches).

 

You'll get no argument from me on the mendacity of government (particularly the US one), but I don't see the dying tailing off in the US, either (see below) - it seems pretty consistent over the last few months to me. I'm sure that the current US government would like the dying to be over by the end of August (election season, after all), but I strongly doubt it will be the case.

 

 

Now overlay CASES with the graph. Yet we are locking down on cases alone in the UK. 

 

Short analysis by David Paton professor of industrial economics at Notts university, in which he concludes that the Leicester lockdown was not necessary.

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-leicester-lockdown-...

Interesting that this is based on the number of cases alone, without any correction for the obvious testing surge in the area, including knocking door to door for to find people to test.

[simFox]

In posting this from a chap I know on another forum which I totally agree with.

 

We were so close to following Swedens approach. I remember listening to the discussions driving to an appointment on the evening of the 12th March.

I came to terms with it then, felt the grief and fear, but knew it was the right thing to do. Then something happened in the next few days that caused us to pivot completely. I think it was the toxic mixture of a number of things:

1. The terrifying Imperial Report, which was presented as a prediction, not a 'reasonable worst case scenario'. Prompting a lack of understanding that was not corrected by Neil Ferguson as he basked in the media limelight.

2. Ongoing media frenzy about the 'terrible' situation in Italy and the COVIDiots in this country who were incapable of 'doing the right thing' without the force of law.

3. The 'intellectual' left wing, which had spent years mocking and railing against Trump and Boris and could not concieve that our Govt might have a better approach than the Europeans. This bothers me most as people who spoke a lot of sense about Brexit showed that they were completely unable to think logically when it came to these divisive figures. They pushed the narrative that Boris was sentencing hundreds of thousands of people to death by delaying lockdown. Without ever once considering how likely that situation was or if there was even any proof that lockdowns would work.

It was wrong from the start, ill conceived and utterly immoral, but the injury has been compounded by months of self righteous fools treating anyone who dares to even question the zeitgeist as a dangerous maniac. Lockdown has given license to narrow minded people who delight in petty bureaucracy and lack any zest for life, choosing to blame every one else for their misfortune.

For me this is epitomised in the sort of person who thinks that the whole mask discussion can be cleared up by explaining that it's really not that difficult. The sort of person who argues that we never really had a lockdown, that things are not that different to normal now, that we just need to change our behaviour for a while. The ones that wanted 'a few weeks more' lockdown 2 months ago, for whom it will always be 'too soon' to open schools.

Those people are to blame. And when I see elderly relatives of mine age 5 years in 5 months, losing their 'spark' and becoming diminished as their world shrinks around them, then I feel an anger that I have never experienced before.

These people must not be listened to and they must not be appeased. They have no concept of the damage they are causing and we need to fight them every inch of the way. We need to start dragging ourselves out of this mess.

This is a great article from John Lee, retired NHS pathologist:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815...

[leicsmac]

3 minutes ago, simFox said:

Now overlay CASES with the graph. Yet we are locking down on cases alone in the UK. 

 

Short analysis by David Paton professor of industrial economics at Notts university, in which he concludes that the Leicester lockdown was not necessary.

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-leicester-lockdown-...

Interesting that this is based on the number of cases alone, without any correction for the obvious testing surge in the area, including knocking door to door for to find people to test.

I would, but it seems that the scales mess up when I do - apologies. However, from what I can tell, the ratio of confirmed cases v deaths doesn't seem to have shifted enough over time to be statistically significant.

 

In any case, is this something of a gish gallop? The conversation was about deaths, and now it's cases? There's certainly a debate about the effectiveness of local lockdowns within the UK, but given the situation I personally would err on the side of caution rather than risking things spiralling out of control.

 

If I may ask a question - do you really believe that if the UK and the world open up again right now, there will not be another wave of hospitalisations that will end up causing more economic and social difficulty than is being experienced now? And if so, I'd be interested in hearing exactly why.

 

[Crinklyfox]

11 hours ago, yorkie1999 said:

I’m not so sure, aren’t vaccines specific to a strain of a virus and as a virus mutates, a vaccine needs to mutate along with it, so in theory, they could be developing a vaccine for a virus that it is no longer relevant to.

I believe that you're correct, however Covid-19 appears to be a slow-mutating virus.  The only mutation I am aware of is the 614G mutation (the original virus from Wuhan was 614D but 614G is effectively the pandemic now).  The spike protein of the virus contains a long chain of amino acids, it is number 614 in that chain which mutated.  This appears to have made it more contagious and some studies have proposed that it has a higher fatality rate, though evidence to support this is inconclusive.

 

In contrast the common cold is a swiftly mutating virus which is why someone can catch more than one cold per year.   

[reynard]

5 hours ago, simFox said:

THIS IS NOT THE KILLER WE THOUGT IT WAS.

 

We need to get back to 2019 normal and fast. More people are dieing now from non Covid deaths, the numbers dead by Covid are not a true representation as admitted by ONS. Sweden did it right. Deaths are not increasing despite more cases in US, it will be all over for them by end of August. It only affects wean and vulnerable, so shield them, the rest of us are fine. There is even evidence showing that herd immunity is achieved much lower and that previous Corona infections has produced antibodies.

 

This is not as bad as we thought, we need to stop the lockdowns, more people will die from that than anything else. Covid is done.

 

https://f1000research.com/articles/9-285

 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-lockdown-may-have-indirectly-caused-16-000-excess-deaths-study-12044923

I presume you're one of those who still think the world is flat and that the moon landings didn't happen.

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, reynard said:

I presume you're one of those who still think the world is flat and that the moon landings didn't happen.

It isn’t and they didn’t ??.

 

It’s not just the futility of the transfer forum ........ this place destroys me .........

 

are you saying that I need to blow into that plastic globe I have upstairs  ?????

 

 

[st albans fox]

@simFox it was never really about people dying from the virus ..... it was always about the NHS coping ....... unless you are comfortable leaving those infected to have the disease take its course without any treatments????

 

If we knew back then what we know now and had the level of testing available that we have now then we perhaps could have avoided a nationwide lockdown of three months, assuming we stopped the widespread infections exploding here early to mid March.

 

once it was out of control there wasn’t much different that they could have done without all roads leading to the same place