Coronavirus Thread

[z-layrex]

35 minutes ago, davieG said:

.....and this is some of the crap they left behind

 

Brighton is a mecca for chavs and people with drug/alcohol/mental health issues. Trained there for 3 years and worked for 3, never have I worked anywhere where the population has so many social problems.

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

18 minutes ago, Captain... said:

There is no wrong and right in statistics just transparency. The original reporting of deaths only showed part of the picture, the government were clear in what it was showing, number of deaths in hospitals by people with a positive test. This was partly for comparing with other countries who did similar, but it was misleading because deaths in care homes were not being recorded along with deaths in other settings.

 

They also started off only recording deaths that they could directly link to coronavirus, but there are still a lot of unknowns. One example is the increasing reports of mental health being impacted and long term heart and lung damage. Dying three months after being given the all clear doesn't mean that the virus didn't have a significant cause in your death. This could be a stroke or suicide.

 

The only way to really measure the death toll is deaths above average/expected but that won't be known for a while, at the moment deaths are below average for this time of year because a lot of vulnerable people died of covid related causes earlier than would have been expected. 

 

My main point is it isn't "scandalous" that the reporting method may need refining, that's a very simplistic and sensationalist view of things implying people are deliberately trying to manipulate the stats which is just not true.

And yet the whole death toll has been used by the media to sensationalise the sad state of affairs we find ourselves in.

Im not so sure that people haven’t deliberately tried to manipulate the stats, you cannot know it’s not true in the same way I don’t know it is, unless of course you have access to all the death records.

[Monk]

1 hour ago, simFox said:

You are missing the point about what government are doing, this guy says it better than me.

 

 

Why would the government sabotage the economy to appease a ‘moral panic’. You’re suggesting they’re keeping some lockdowns in place because people are scared?

 

if that’s the case where are your pants shitting per 000 stats to back this up?

Edited 10 August 2020 by Monk

[Captain...]

18 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

And yet the whole death toll has been used by the media to sensationalise the sad state of affairs we find ourselves in.

Im not so sure that people haven’t deliberately tried to manipulate the stats, you cannot know it’s not true in the same way I don’t know it is, unless of course you have access to all the death records.

The whole death toll is horrendous, one of the worst in the world by deaths per population, a few outlying stats of people who had it but died from something else compared to the people that died due to covid and it wasn't picked up will not significantly change the severity of this virus on our population.

 

 

I found this here: https://www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/08/04/uk-excess-deaths-during-covid-19-outbreak-down-by-1500/

 

Sums up where we are.

 

An older one from the BBC:

 

 

Shows how many unaccounted for deaths there were early on and how the change in reporting was a closer fit to the deaths above average.

 

More from the BBC's analysis of deaths above average and differences in how other countries report it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53078368

I would like to see an updated version of these stats but can't find anything.

Edited 10 August 2020 by Captain...

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

COVID for most parts (yes I’m assuming) is only a contributing factor in a lot of deaths, if you die of a heart attack you die of a heart attack and yet this would go down as a COVID death if the patient had the virus. 
It’s contributed to a lot of deaths but has by no means been the main cause of death and yet figures will show COVID deaths.

Its all really sad.

[Sampson]

34 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

COVID for most parts (yes I’m assuming) is only a contributing factor in a lot of deaths, if you die of a heart attack you die of a heart attack and yet this would go down as a COVID death if the patient had the virus. 
It’s contributed to a lot of deaths but has by no means been the main cause of death and yet figures will show COVID deaths.

Its all really sad.

Why were the excess death figures so high then?

People were by pure coincidence having 3 times as many heart attacks back in March and April time?

 

There's a bizarre assertion by some wafting away the excess deaths were not due to either covid or the NHS being swamped - but why did this specifically happen during March and April and not continue once covid got under control towards the end of May/beginning of June?

 

Unless it was because either thousands were dying in their home of covid but we couldn't confirm it as they were already dead or people were dying in their home and we didn't have capacity to treat them because of the lack of capacity in the NHS?

 

The excess deaths specifically for the months of March-May show a much bleaker picture than the official death statistics show and all I see is people batting off unsubstantiated ideas that people were dying of other reasons and it was because people were scared and nothing to do with the NHS reaching capacity or that they had covid.

 

That's something we have to look into in the future, but it's speculation based on nothing to just say "oh well, you know, more people died of heart attacks and suicide from lockdown" (the suicide rate is one thing which has been shown has barely made a dent in the figures).

 

I agree that the death figures in the past month or two have probably been exaggerated a little, but it's also pretty clear we under-reported the death figures back in March-May time when the government were only reporting tested and confirmed positive hospital deaths.

Edited 10 August 2020 by Sampson

[Jon the Hat]

WHat is clear is that despite all the loosening of restrictions, deaths remain low, and in fact probably much lower than currently published. If schools don't go back fully at the start of September it will be a bloody joke.

Edited 10 August 2020 by Jon the Hat

[Monk]

27 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

WHat is clear is that despite all the loosening of restrictions, number remain low, and in face probably much lower than currently published. If schools don;t go back fully at the start of September it will be a bloody joke.

What makes you think that cases are lower than what’s published? You think they’re lying about test results, or counting them I correctly? What exactly?

 

ps agree schools should go back 

Edited 10 August 2020 by Monk

[Izzy]

It’s my birthday at the end of August and the wife turns 50 at the beginning of September.

But there’s a date we’re both looking forward to celebrating even more than them.

 

September 3rd, when the kids go back to school 

 

[Monk]

Here in Scotland kids are back to school on Wednesday this week to will be interesting to see how it goes. 
 

Due to scottish term finishing so early in the summer the kids haven’t had any school since March! 
 

The school are doing Pretty much all they can to reduce risk - staggered start and end times, different classes into different entrances and packed lunches in the classroom. 
 

Though I’m still running on the assumption we will lock down again later in the year. Hoping we at least get to half term before that happens!

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Why were the excess death figures so high then?

People were by pure coincidence having 3 times as many heart attacks back in March and April time?

 

There's a bizarre assertion by some wafting away the excess deaths were not due to either covid or the NHS being swamped - but why did this specifically happen during March and April and not continue once covid got under control towards the end of May/beginning of June?

 

Unless it was because either thousands were dying in their home of covid but we couldn't confirm it as they were already dead or people were dying in their home and we didn't have capacity to treat them because of the lack of capacity in the NHS?

 

The excess deaths specifically for the months of March-May show a much bleaker picture than the official death statistics show and all I see is people batting off unsubstantiated ideas that people were dying of other reasons and it was because people were scared and nothing to do with the NHS reaching capacity or that they had covid.

 

That's something we have to look into in the future, but it's speculation based on nothing to just say "oh well, you know, more people died of heart attacks and suicide from lockdown" (the suicide rate is one thing which has been shown has barely made a dent in the figures).

 

I agree that the death figures in the past month or two have probably been exaggerated a little, but it's also pretty clear we under-reported the death figures back in March-May time when the government were only reporting tested and confirmed positive hospital deaths.

Possibly because it was allowed to run riot through the hospitals and care homes where already vulnerable and poorly people tend to be. We were caught out and a lot of already poorly people had their lives cut short. 
I wonder if cancer deaths were down for the months you speak of, or pneumonia and flu deaths, or heart failure.... or were these put down as COVID deaths?

 

Exaggerated “a little” I’d say rather more than a little.

Someone terminally ill with cancer who has COVID dies of COVID rather than cancer, that’s where the figures are exaggerated 

Edited 10 August 2020 by Mark 'expert' Lawrenson

[Monk]

6 hours ago, simFox said:

It's been common knowledge for a long time:

 

 

Here, it seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not. PHE does not appear to consider how long ago the COVID test result was, nor whether the person has been successfully treated in hospital and discharged to the community. Anyone who has tested COVID positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE COVID death figures.

 

By this PHE definition, no one with COVID in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a COVID death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.

 

So we have over exaggerated covid deaths and evidence that more people are dieing at home due to non Covid illness. So how are those Covid numbers looking now? 

 

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

You make a good point, that someone dying after recovering from Covid can be classed as a Covid death even if it wasn’t.

 

But add all of these together and the excess deaths chart shows very very clearly that more people died than usual - well outside of a statistical confidence interval. 
 

So your point is moot. At a societal level the chart will show is how many people died of Covid without needing to show how many tested positive earlier, or at death or at any time. 
 

And you could say - what’s the purpose of testing If that’s the case? It helps the govt see what’s happening and plan accordingly. 

[Monk]

3 hours ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

And yet the whole death toll has been used by the media to sensationalise the sad state of affairs we find ourselves in.

Im not so sure that people haven’t deliberately tried to manipulate the stats, you cannot know it’s not true in the same way I don’t know it is, unless of course you have access to all the death records.

Again, the excess deaths chart negates the need to look at death certificates. If there’s thousands of extra people dying then it is truly sensational. What are you going to say next that the media sensationalised how many people died in 9/11? Of course not. 
 

Deaths are now far more than a King Power stadium with every seat filled. If the media didn’t focus on how crazy this is, it’d be a sure sign that press wasn’t working. 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

6 minutes ago, Monk said:

Again, the excess deaths chart negates the need to look at death certificates. If there’s thousands of extra people dying then it is truly sensational. What are you going to say next that the media sensationalised how many people died in 9/11? Of course not. 
 

Deaths are now far more than a King Power stadium with every seat filled. If the media didn’t focus on how crazy this is, it’d be a sure sign that press wasn’t working. 

Read my last post or are you blind.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53712087

 

The leader who did not lead.

[Monk]

11 minutes ago, Mark 'expert' Lawrenson said:

Read my last post or are you blind.

Nope not blind. 
 

On your point - if someone is terminally ill and they died during the crisis, the excess deaths chart would not show this as a Covid death. 
 

statistically a predictable number of people will die of terminal illness every month and would be counted under the average deaths line on the excess deaths chart. It doesn’t matter what their death certificate says. 
 

 

In reality with the chart above there will be some people who died of Covid and it wasn’t on the death certificate and some who did not die of Covid/ would have died anyway but it was on the certificate

 

but it doesn’t matter because the reality of the chart is that everything above that line +/- a small tolerance of certainty will have died of Covid or the effects of Covid lockdown (smaller number). 

 

 

Edited 10 August 2020 by Monk

[Blue ROI]

Ireland now has a higher number of cases per 100,000 of population than the UK over the last 14 days.

 

Ireland at 16.9, the UK at 16.5.

 

The food processing factories in the Laois, Offaly, Kildare (LOK) counties that caused a major outbreak have now closed.

 

 

[Costock_Fox]

39 minutes ago, Blue ROI said:

Ireland now has a higher number of cases per 100,000 of population than the UK over the last 14 days.

 

Ireland at 16.9, the UK at 16.5.

 

The food processing factories in the Laois, Offaly, Kildare (LOK) counties that caused a major outbreak have now closed.

 

 

I guess that shows how important track and trace is. In Ireland them few plants being detected early should make a huge difference.

[Jon the Hat]

2 hours ago, Monk said:

What makes you think that cases are lower than what’s published? You think they’re lying about test results, or counting them I correctly? What exactly?

 

ps agree schools should go back 

I meant deaths rather than cases.  Cases will tick along especially as they do more tests.  I expect a lower than average deaths over the next months barring a second wave, which I am not sure will happen anyway.

[Monk]

Yes - lower than average deaths would make sense as, for example fewer cars are on the road but that will be balanced out by lack of treatment for some other conditions like cancer. 
 

but in your original post you’re saying you think deaths are lower than the published figures - why is that, what am I missing. 

[simFox]

3 hours ago, Monk said:

You make a good point, that someone dying after recovering from Covid can be classed as a Covid death even if it wasn’t.

 

But add all of these together and the excess deaths chart shows very very clearly that more people died than usual - well outside of a statistical confidence interval. 
 

So your point is moot. At a societal level the chart will show is how many people died of Covid without needing to show how many tested positive earlier, or at death or at any time. 
 

And you could say - what’s the purpose of testing If that’s the case? It helps the govt see what’s happening and plan accordingly. 

So you accept the point of non Covid death reporting. Now accept the fact that more people are dieing at home due to lack of care. Accept all the other points I took ten seconds to write and all of a sudden the covid deaths aren't so high.

[simFox]

3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53712087

 

The leader who did not lead.

Branded as not being a leader because he didn't bow to media and public opinion. 

 

When the dust settles, history will judge the leaders.

[simFox]

Let's hope this is true. I guess we need to wait for the peer reviewed literature, but it's becoming more talked about.

 

Levels of herd immunity within the UK may already be high enough to prevent a second wave of coronavirus, a new study by Oxford University scientists suggests.

 

The researchers posit that some of the population may already have a high level of immunity to Covid-19 without ever having caught it.

 

In a paper yet to be peer-reviewed, they point to evidence suggesting exposure to seasonal coronaviruses, such as the common cold, may have already provided some with a degree of immunity, and note that others may be more naturally resistant to infection.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-second-wave-oxford-study-boris-johnson-a9623791.html?fbclid=IwAR2QkAlOk12OqK0L8Aa9M2sa9JELC5RiqZ46RzrUmKTo68C73ptgf3bxJD0

[simFox]

[Guest Markyblue]

6 hours ago, Sampson said:

Why were the excess death figures so high then?

People were by pure coincidence having 3 times as many heart attacks back in March and April time?

 

There's a bizarre assertion by some wafting away the excess deaths were not due to either covid or the NHS being swamped - but why did this specifically happen during March and April and not continue once covid got under control towards the end of May/beginning of June?

 

Unless it was because either thousands were dying in their home of covid but we couldn't confirm it as they were already dead or people were dying in their home and we didn't have capacity to treat them because of the lack of capacity in the NHS?

 

The excess deaths specifically for the months of March-May show a much bleaker picture than the official death statistics show and all I see is people batting off unsubstantiated ideas that people were dying of other reasons and it was because people were scared and nothing to do with the NHS reaching capacity or that they had covid.

 

That's something we have to look into in the future, but it's speculation based on nothing to just say "oh well, you know, more people died of heart attacks and suicide from lockdown" (the suicide rate is one thing which has been shown has barely made a dent in the figures).

 

I agree that the death figures in the past month or two have probably been exaggerated a little, but it's also pretty clear we under-reported the death figures back in March-May time when the government were only reporting tested and confirmed positive hospital deaths.

I stopped reading once you mentioned the nhs being swamped,  that is not only untrue its a complete lie. I think figures show that even in the worse period the nhs was nowhere near overwhelmed. The nightingale hospitals were barely used at all.