Coronavirus Thread

[yorkie1999]

I think the big test will be when schools return in September. If there’s going to be a second wave, this is where it will start. One kid gets it and before you know it the whole school will be infected including the teachers and support staff and consequently taking the virus back to their family. There’s not the control in schools as there is in the wider world and it’s all very well and good the government giving assurances that it will be safe and controls will be in place but come on, we’ve all been to school and know it’s not going to happen, kids are kids and they don’t follow rules at the best of times. 

[davieG]

Brighton Beach yesterday

 

 

 

 

Looks more acceptable from this angle assuming it's the same section of beach

 

 

I wouldn't want to be on a beach that crowded virus or no virus.

[Stivo]

39 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I think the big test will be when schools return in September. If there’s going to be a second wave, this is where it will start. One kid gets it and before you know it the whole school will be infected including the teachers and support staff and consequently taking the virus back to their family. There’s not the control in schools as there is in the wider world and it’s all very well and good the government giving assurances that it will be safe and controls will be in place but come on, we’ve all been to school and know it’s not going to happen, kids are kids and they don’t follow rules at the best of times. 

I am hoping that they will be able to roll out those new 90 minute tests to schools.  

If they could test everyone once a week that could perhaps keep a head on it.

 

There is a report in the guardian today which suggests that primary schools may not be an issue anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/aug/09/what-we-are-learning-about-covid-19-and-kids

 

[Paninistickers]

59 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

I think the big test will be when schools return in September. If there’s going to be a second wave, this is where it will start. One kid gets it and before you know it the whole school will be infected including the teachers and support staff and consequently taking the virus back to their family. There’s not the control in schools as there is in the wider world and it’s all very well and good the government giving assurances that it will be safe and controls will be in place but come on, we’ve all been to school and know it’s not going to happen, kids are kids and they don’t follow rules at the best of times. 

Kids haven't bothered with hand washing, elbow bumping and social distancing since about mid May. 

 

Ok, all the contact is outdoors with fresh air and perhaps two, three  or four friends together. But the going back to school is not a quantum leap. 

 

Plus of course, all the kids of key workers  who attended classes never caught it off each other...them being surely the most likely to have picked it up from works parents

 

 

Edit; I do agree with you tho that Autumn will probably bring a major upswing. Once all the central heating goes on, indoor spaces are germ factories

Edited 9 August 2020 by Paninistickers

[foxile5]

33 minutes ago, Paninistickers said:

Kids haven't bothered with hand washing, elbow bumping and social distancing since about mid May. 

 

Ok, all the contact is outdoors with fresh air and perhaps two, three  or four friends together. But the going back to school is not a quantum leap. 

 

Plus of course, all the kids of key workers  who attended classes never caught it off each other...them being surely the most likely to have picked it up from works parents

 

 

Edit; I do agree with you tho that Autumn will probably bring a major upswing. Once all the central heating goes on, indoor spaces are germ factories

You do realise that schools didn't have a laissez faire approach? 

 

At >5% capacity is possible up get children to sanitise and distance in classrooms and around the buildings, in a way that will be entirely impossible in a full school. 

 

[TheUltimateWinner]

If schools stick to the guidelines by the letter I can see it being managed. But I don’t see that happening unfortunately, complacency has already set in, well, at least in the one I work at anyway.

[Paninistickers]

1 hour ago, foxile5 said:

You do realise that schools didn't have a laissez faire approach? 

 

At >5% capacity is possible up get children to sanitise and distance in classrooms and around the buildings, in a way that will be entirely impossible in a full school. 

 

Yeah, but you miss my point. Kids have been interacting together in the parks, on football pitches, outside co-op, the chippy, in gardens, skateboard ramps at holiday parks for nigh on 12 weeks now. 

 

I know  a school environment is indoors, closed and has 600 people  (albeit there will be bubbles of 40-50).....but this potential dramatic upswing won't be because kids are interacting....as they already do that

[foxile5]

1 minute ago, Paninistickers said:

Yeah, but you miss my point. Kids have been interacting together in the parks, on football pitches, outside co-op, the chippy, in gardens, skateboard ramps at holiday parks for nigh on 12 weeks now. 

 

I know  a school environment is indoors, closed and has 600 people  (albeit there will be bubbles of 40-50).....but this potential dramatic upswing won't be because kids are interacting....as they already do that

Their interacting outside. In schools, compleye with ancient ventilation and heating systems, its likely to be a different ball game. 

 

[simFox]

3 hours ago, st albans fox said:

@simFox it was never really about people dying from the virus ..... it was always about the NHS coping ....... unless you are comfortable leaving those infected to have the disease take its course without any treatments????

 

If we knew back then what we know now and had the level of testing available that we have now then we perhaps could have avoided a nationwide lockdown of three months, assuming we stopped the widespread infections exploding here early to mid March.

 

once it was out of control there wasn’t much different that they could have done without all roads leading to the same place 

Then why are we still locking down? Why dismantle the nightingale's?

 

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is similar to ours

 

There is no second wave.

 

Evidence is out that herd immunity is much much lower

 

Evidence is also showing that we have cross immunity from other Corona viruses.

 

Hospitals are EMPTY of covid patients. The NHS coped with no problem, fine, job done. I'll go with that, now open up back up.

 

We need to stop locking down, that's the killer. It's the cuckoo in the nest, civil liberties and personal freedoms given up for terror and fear of the unknown. Christ, you soon realise how easy it is for a population to drift quickly into totalitarian regimes. We do it willingly! All in the name of safety.

Edited 9 August 2020 by simFox

[Leicester_Loyal]

The virus didn't spread at VE day celebrations, BLM protests, bank holiday celebrations or Liverpool & Leeds football celebrations, so why do people keep sticking pictures of places like beaches online and saying 'Looking forward to the second wave'. Plus the pictures are always done at dodgy angles, to make it look like people are closer to together than they actually are.

[st albans fox]

5 minutes ago, simFox said:

Then why are we still locking down? Why dismantle the nightingale's?

 

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is similar to ours

 

There is no second wave.

 

Evidence is out that herd immunity is much much lower

 

Evidence is also showing that we have cross immunity from other Corona viruses.

 

Hospitals are EMPTY of covid patients. The NHS coped with no problem, fine, job done. I'll go with that, now open up back up.

 

We need to stop locking down, that's the killer. It's the cuckoo in the nest, civil liberties and personal freedoms given up for terror and fear of the unknown. Christ, you soon realise how easy it is for a population to drift quickly into totalitarian regimes. We do it willingly! All in the name of safety.

Surely local lockdowns where cases are spiking makes sense ???.

[foxile5]

5 minutes ago, simFox said:

Then why are we still locking down? Why dismantle the nightingale's?

 

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is similar to ours

 

There is no second wave.

 

Evidence is out that herd immunity is much much lower

 

Evidence is also showing that we have cross immunity from other Corona viruses.

 

Hospitals are EMPTY of covid patients. The NHS coped with no problem, fine, job done. I'll go with that, now open up back up.

 

We need to stop locking down, that's the killer. It's the cuckoo in the nest, civil liberties and personal freedoms given up for terror and fear of the unknown. Christ, you soon realise how easy it is for a population to drift quickly into totalitarian regimes. We do it willingly! All in the name of safety.

America really throws a spanner into the 'no second wave' works. 

 

Sometimes, man, it ain't a conspiracy. 

[Paninistickers]

1 minute ago, foxile5 said:

America really throws a spanner into the 'no second wave' works. 

 

Sometimes, man, it ain't a conspiracy. 

I don't think it's a conspiracy. 

 

I just think we are overreacting

[leicsmac]

7 minutes ago, simFox said:

Then why are we still locking down? Why dismantle the nightingale's?

 

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is similar to ours

 

There is no second wave.

 

Evidence is out that herd immunity is much much lower

 

Evidence is also showing that we have cross immunity from other Corona viruses.

 

Hospitals are EMPTY of covid patients. The NHS coped with no problem, fine, job done. I'll go with that, now open up back up.

 

We need to stop locking down, that's the killer. It's the cuckoo in the nest, civil liberties and personal freedoms given up for terror and fear of the unknown. Christ, you soon realise how easy it is for a population to drift quickly into totalitarian regimes. We do it willingly! All in the name of safety.

What evidence is there for there being no second wave possible if business as normal is resumed right now? Or is it a hunch?

 

 

3 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The virus didn't spread at VE day celebrations, BLM protests, bank holiday celebrations or Liverpool & Leeds football celebrations, so why do people keep sticking pictures of places like beaches online and saying 'Looking forward to the second wave'. Plus the pictures are always done at dodgy angles, to make it look like people are closer to together than they actually are.

Then why are cases still spiralling in the US and Brazil, among other places?

 

We simply don't know enough about how this thing is transmitted to be sure and as such caution should perhaps be the watchword until we do or until we know we can fight it without totally compromising healthcare infrastructures (and therefore social and economic concerns).

[simFox]

1 minute ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

The virus didn't spread at VE day celebrations, BLM protests, bank holiday celebrations or Liverpool & Leeds football celebrations, so why do people keep sticking pictures of places like beaches online and saying 'Looking forward to the second wave'. Plus the pictures are always done at dodgy angles, to make it look like people are closer to together than they actually are.

Keep the fear going. Keep the media selling papers. The idiot scientists and politicians can keep SAVING us.

 

Doesn't fool me one bit.

 

I was behind the initial lockdown, but look at the numbers. It's all bit gone. My BIL got it and didn't notice. What's the US testing now, 75k cases PER DAY! yet deaths are still around 1-2k a day. Put that into perspective against a normal flu season.

 

We need to open our eyes a bit. The job losses are real, out economy is tanking and deaths are going up from non Covid reasons.

 

If you think I have an axe to grind, I don't. Ive worked everyday and got paid more to do so. But I can see what's happening and it's not good.

[Paninistickers]

3 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Surely local lockdowns where cases are spiking makes sense ???.

So long as itsy local and not sealing off Glenfield, Braunstone etc when the problem was in East Leicester wards 

[simFox]

5 minutes ago, foxile5 said:

America really throws a spanner into the 'no second wave' works. 

 

Sometimes, man, it ain't a conspiracy. 

You can split the US into two, first the northern states, now the southern states.

 

The cases have gone through the roof, the deaths haven't gone beyond the first peak, once the virus does it's thing through the South, it's game over for covid, like it is in Europe.

[simFox]

9 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

What evidence is there for there being no second wave possible if business as normal is resumed right now? Or is it a hunch?

 

 

Then why are cases still spiralling in the US and Brazil, among other places?

 

We simply don't know enough about how this thing is transmitted to be sure and as such caution should perhaps be the watchword until we do or until we know we can fight it without totally compromising healthcare infrastructures (and therefore social and economic concerns).

USA:

 

More cases, less deaths. Now why is that? If you look at it from a North South basis, you'll  see what's happening. The virus will be done in the US by the end of August with or without lockdown.

 

 

[leicsmac]

Come on guys, this is almost all assertion.

 

Again: if there is an idea that opening up the world will result in less bodies on the floor in the long term for whatever attributable reasons, then either supply reasoning to seriously prove it or say that it's an assertion rather than spouting opinion as fact.

[Leicester_Loyal]

13 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

What evidence is there for there being no second wave possible if business as normal is resumed right now? Or is it a hunch?

 

 

Then why are cases still spiralling in the US and Brazil, among other places?

 

We simply don't know enough about how this thing is transmitted to be sure and as such caution should perhaps be the watchword until we do or until we know we can fight it without totally compromising healthcare infrastructures (and therefore social and economic concerns).

Probably because people are catching it indoors?

 

If it was easily spread outdoors, we'd have had a lot more cases after any of these numerous events. At BLM there was literally thousands of people crammed together, there was no spike in cases.

 

Remember May Bank holiday when there was tens of thousands crammed into small seaside towns, no spike in cases too.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, simFox said:

USA:

 

More cases, less deaths. Now why is that? If you look at it from a North South basis, you'll  see what's happening. The virus will be done in the US by the end of August with or without lockdown.

 

 

There is any one of a number of factors, including lockdown and coverage methods, that could be responsible for that, and if those are taken away we don't know what might happen.

 

I'm not dismissing the idea out of hand here, but personally I wouldn't be willing to stake everything on being so sure of the assertion that the virus is burning itself out when it's not even close to certain that it is.

 

2 minutes ago, Leicester_Loyal said:

Probably because people are catching it indoors?

 

If it was easily spread outdoors, we'd have had a lot more cases after any of these numerous events. At BLM there was literally thousands of people crammed together, there was no spike in cases.

 

Remember May Bank holiday when there was tens of thousands crammed into small seaside towns, no spike in cases too.

So assuming that's true (and it may well be), relaxing lockdown wrt indoor environments sounds like a mistake to me. Pardon me if that wasn't what you were angling for, though.

[sdb]

18 minutes ago, simFox said:

Keep the fear going. Keep the media selling papers. The idiot scientists and politicians can keep SAVING us.

 

Doesn't fool me one bit.

 

I was behind the initial lockdown, but look at the numbers. It's all bit gone. My BIL got it and didn't notice. What's the US testing now, 75k cases PER DAY! yet deaths are still around 1-2k a day. Put that into perspective against a normal flu season.

 

We need to open our eyes a bit. The job losses are real, out economy is tanking and deaths are going up from non Covid reasons.

 

If you think I have an axe to grind, I don't. Ive worked everyday and got paid more to do so. But I can see what's happening and it's not good.

Why are deaths going up from non covid reasons? 

[SpacedX]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Come on guys, this is almost all assertion.

 

Again: if there is an idea that opening up the world will result in less bodies on the floor in the long term for whatever attributable reasons, then either supply reasoning to seriously prove it or say that it's an assertion rather than spouting opinion as fact.

I think that the contention being made is that lockdown restrictions are now counter productive in terms of the socio-economic fallout and mental well-being in addition to the ramifications towards personal freedom, civil liberty and the future implications of state control. That said, I agree, there is absolutely no basis or data supporting many of the claims being made on here which are almost entirely conjecture, in particular the suggestion that the possibility of a second wave is a myth. The latter is very real.

 

The government justified the ease in restrictions because infections in the UK had been declining since April, when they peaked at over 8000 cases a day. We know that herd immunity is not the cause of this where an estimated 1 to 10% of people worldwide have antibodies to the virus and the level for such herd immunity for this specific strain would be 60%. One of the main factors is likely the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere may have helped to reduce infections - for now. Some evidence suggests that, as with certain other respiratory viruses, coronaviruses stay viable on surfaces for longer when the air is cooler and less humid, and some studies have found a link between new infections and lower humidity. However, it is still unclear whether the coronavirus will have a seasonal cycle like flu. Warm weather also encourages people to spend more time outdoors, where the virus is more likely to be damaged by sunlight or drift away on  a breeze. A recent study in China found that 98% of super-spreading events, where transmission is disproportionately high compared with normal transmission rates, happened indoors. Climate may or may not be a factor, but irrespective, we know that spreading is less easy outdoors. Also, initially many deaths were recorded in care homes but measures have reduced these. 

 

What is abundantly clear is that pretty much every place that starts to loosen up restrictions and where social distancing diminishes, you start to see outbreaks increase. The extent and duration of this is hard to establish because governments have immediately responded. Countries have experienced a resurgence of cases in recent weeks after easing restrictions. Israel has recorded a pronounced second wave and responded by reimposing restrictions. Restrictions have also been reimposed in parts of Spain - in particular Catalunya. Several US states, including Texas, have reversed the easing of restrictions in bars and restaurants....anyone sceptical about a second wave should look no further than what happened in Florida - in particular, Miami Beach. 

The question is, do they then coalesce into a full blown second wave? There are signs that things could be changing in the UK following provincial spikes, here and elsewhere. Latest figures from the ONS show that the declining incidence rates in England seen until early July have now plateaued. As we approach winter the prospect of a second wave is very real. The consequences of this would be much, much graver than continuing to exert restrictions. 

[yorkie1999]

1 hour ago, st albans fox said:

Surely local lockdowns where cases are spiking makes sense ???.

It’s hardly spiking is it, the number crunchers are having to stick 3 naughts on the end of  percentages to make it even look like there are spikes. The longer this sort of control goes on the more I believe this is all to do with power over the population. 50 cases out of 100000 people is not a lot, 50000 is, but not 50.

[simFox]

35 minutes ago, yorkie1999 said:

It’s hardly spiking is it, the number crunchers are having to stick 3 naughts on the end of  percentages to make it even look like there are spikes. The longer this sort of control goes on the more I believe this is all to do with power over the population. 50 cases out of 100000 people is not a lot, 50000 is, but not 50.

Exactly. Numbers aren't conjecture. Locking down Preston due to a spike in 50 cases is just totally mental.

 

Why are people asking questions about non Covid deaths going up. Don't they even know? 

Edited 9 August 2020 by simFox