Coronavirus Thread

[simFox]

1 hour ago, Line-X said:

 

What is abundantly clear is that pretty much every place that starts to loosen up restrictions and where social distancing diminishes, you start to see outbreaks increase. The extent and duration of this is hard to establish because governments have immediately responded. Countries have experienced a resurgence of cases in recent weeks after easing restrictions. Israel has recorded a pronounced second wave and responded by reimposing restrictions. Restrictions have also been reimposed in parts of Spain - in particular Catalunya. Several US states, including Texas, have reversed the easing of restrictions in bars and restaurants....anyone sceptical about a second wave should look no further than what happened in Florida - in particular, Miami Beach. 

 

The only thing that is abundantly clear is that the more people you test, the more cases you will find. If you correct your data to take this into account there is no spike.

 

50 extra cases in Preston is not a spike.

 

Christ, that barely covers the false positive error.

Edited 9 August 2020 by simFox

[simFox]

1 hour ago, sdb said:

Why are deaths going up from non covid reasons? 

Twice as many people are now dying at home from unexplained causes rather than Covid-19, with experts calling for an urgent investigation into what is causing the excess deaths.

New figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show there were 766 more deaths at home than usual in the week to July 17.  In contrast, just 295 deaths involved coronavirus in England and Wales, and only 29 of those occurred at home. 

It brings the total excess deaths at home during the pandemic to more than 20,000.

Experts are concerned that people are still unable to access medical care, even though there are now relatively few cases of coronavirus in hospitals. 

The ONS figures show that deaths in hospitals continue to be much lower than usual, suggesting that many of the home deaths are people who would ordinarily have received hospital care. 

 

To remove the paywall, add telegraph to your flash player page exemption.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/28/deaths-home-causes-coronavirus-increase-ons-figures-reveal/

 

[simFox]

Don't know why it came out so big! 

[simFox]

2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

There is any one of a number of factors, including lockdown and coverage methods, that could be responsible for that, and if those are taken away we don't know what might happen.

 

I'm not dismissing the idea out of hand here, but personally I wouldn't be willing to stake everything on being so sure of the assertion that the virus is burning itself out when it's not even close to certain that it is.

 

So assuming that's true (and it may well be), relaxing lockdown wrt indoor environments sounds like a mistake to me. Pardon me if that wasn't what you were angling for, though.

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is very similar to ours. They followed their normal epidemic plan and didn't bow to media pressure. They were criticised at the time by WHO, now they are praised.

 

We don't need lockdown, we also don't need to force the population into doing things that we can ask them to do. Sensible social distancing, a few extra precautions and keep the economy going. Why anyone thinks or welcomes the notion that people need locking in their houses due to a spike in 50 cases. You must be either easily led, plain stupid or worryingly depraved if you think it's ok to see our social and economic destruction.

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, simFox said:

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is very similar to ours. They followed their normal epidemic plan and didn't bow to media pressure. They were criticised at the time by WHO, now they are praised.

 

We don't need lockdown, we also don't need to force the population into doing things that we can ask them to do. Sensible social distancing, a few extra precautions and keep the economy going. Why anyone thinks or welcomes the notion that people need locking in their houses due to a spike in 50 cases. You must be either easily led, plain stupid or worryingly depraved if you think it's ok to see our social and economic destruction.

If being unconvinced that a pathway of relaxing restrictions now would lead to less economic and social harm than not doing so without good evidence to support it is easily led, plain stupid or depraved, then so be it.

 

I am one of those scientists that you so disparage, and as such I'm interested in evidence beyond the anecdotal - not conjecture or hearsay, actual empirical tabulated evidence - that should drive policy on this matter. If that is presented out in the wider world and shows the current scientific consensus to be wrong, then I will happily change my mind and favour a pathway that results in less overall harm.

[simFox]

11 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

If being unconvinced that a pathway of relaxing restrictions now would lead to less economic and social harm than not doing so without good evidence to support it is easily led, plain stupid or depraved, then so be it.

 

I am one of those scientists that you so disparage, and as such I'm interested in evidence beyond the anecdotal - not conjecture or hearsay, actual empirical tabulated evidence - that should drive policy on this matter. If that is presented out in the wider world and shows the current scientific consensus to be wrong, then I will happily change my mind and favour a pathway that results in less overall harm.

I've looked at the graphs, the increase in testing, the various methods deployed by each country, the infection rates, cases in hospital, deaths both covid and non Covid yet we both come to very different conclusions. Your problem is that you have an opinion and you are looking for data to change it. You need to be a bit more open minded, don't start with a conclusion and look for evidence to support it, look at what the data is telling you. I did support lockdown initially, I even started the thread telling you about the killer virus, yet now I'm telling you we have gone to far. Lockdown is not necessary, it never was.

 

I'm sitting here on my phone, it's hard enough downloading a picture, then cropping it, I'm not going to pull all the data together for you because it's readily available, you clearly didn't read any of the links I put up.

 

The problem from the start has been when the government bowed to media and public opinion, instead of following a well thought out epidemic plan like Sweden. That idiot Ferguson put up a worse case scenario and we went balls out. We never were going to hit worst case, because it was just that, the worst that could happen, where was the most likely!

 

What we are seeing now is a small ripple effect as the virus hits isolated areas or groups and more people coming forward for testing. There is no reason at all to assume people are behaving badly or that we need "though measures" to control them.

 

 

[Mark 'expert' Lawrenson]

Deaths are minimal considering the media hysteria and the apparent desperation for there to be a second wave.

Then what do we get, a third, fourth and fifth wave....

 

Edited 9 August 2020 by Mark 'expert' Lawrenson

[simFox]

It's amazing watching all this unfold. It's clearly obvious who the lefty's are, because it fits their agenda of control, you can feel their undying support. The problem with this type of experiment is that people favour their freedoms and diverse train of thought. 

 

These methods always ultimately fail, it just takes a while for the blind following idiots to realise they are being duped by public shaming and fearmongering control. In the meantime the controls get stricter and the noose gets tighter until we end up in the gulags.

 

I don't think we'll get to the gulags, I don't think the government is left wing, we are just waiting for a swing in public opinion, because that's basically what this is all about. It's not about saving lives, it's about being seen to do the right thing, in the opinion of a misinformed public.

 

How easy it is to control an entire nation with fear is hugely worrying, it's nothing but extraordinary.

 

You know when you watch those dystopian movies where everyone is being controlled and obedient, but one person breaks the norm and rails against the system, everyone tells them they are wrong, and the chase ensues, but in the end the perceived "hunch" turns out to be fact, it's just no one else realised. Leicsmac, this is your chance! Which one are you going to be? 😁

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

27 minutes ago, simFox said:

It's amazing watching all this unfold. It's clearly obvious who the lefty's are, because it fits their agenda of control, you can feel their undying support. The problem with this type of experiment is that people favour their freedoms and diverse train of thought. 

 

These methods always ultimately fail, it just takes a while for the blind following idiots to realise they are being duped by public shaming and fearmongering control. In the meantime the controls get stricter and the noose gets tighter until we end up in the gulags.

 

I don't think we'll get to the gulags, I don't think the government is left wing, we are just waiting for a swing in public opinion, because that's basically what this is all about. It's not about saving lives, it's about being seen to do the right thing, in the opinion of a misinformed public.

 

How easy it is to control an entire nation with fear is hugely worrying, it's nothing but extraordinary.

 

You know when you watch those dystopian movies where everyone is being controlled and obedient, but one person breaks the norm and rails against the system, everyone tells them they are wrong, and the chase ensues, but in the end the perceived "hunch" turns out to be fact, it's just no one else realised. Leicsmac, this is your chance! Which one are you going to be? 😁

Bold statement 😂

[simFox]

15 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Bold statement 😂

Unfortunately the scientists and the media are.

[Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot]

Barring one or two exceptions the media are about as right wing as it can get. 

[Strokes]

55 minutes ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Barring one or two exceptions the media are about as right wing as it can get. 

 

[twoleftfeet]

1 hour ago, Steve_Guppy_Left_Foot said:

Barring one or two exceptions the media are about as right wing as it can get. 

Pretty sure they could get a lot more right wing than they are!

The is very little news in the papers or on tv. The tv is pretty much sound bites very little indepth journalism.

The tabloids are just celeb gossip.

[simFox]

Both will claim the BBC is both left and right, but the acid test is Question Time which always has a left wing audience, though that might be just be because it's London.

 

[st albans fox]

16 minutes ago, simFox said:

Both will claim the BBC is both left and right, but the acid test is Question Time which always has a left wing audience, though that might be just be because it's London.

 

 

You mean when they write ‘WIGAN’ across the floor in big letters, they’re conning me ????  Amazing how they get everyone to sound so northern ! 

[simFox]

8 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

You mean when they write ‘WIGAN’ across the floor in big letters, they’re conning me ????  Amazing how they get everyone to sound so northern ! 

😆 Fair enough, it's amazing how they flush out so many lefty's then.

 

I remember when nige was on, and they all clapped when his oppenent talked! Couldn't really get more biased.

[twoleftfeet]

This is getting a bit far from the topic tje has been little reporting in any media about the lack of uptake of wearing masks or evan advice on the correct wearing and no advice on the safe removal of gloves i work for a company that has a training course on this. One of the remits of the BBC is education.

[st albans fox]

2 minutes ago, simFox said:

😆 Fair enough, it's amazing how they flush out so many lefty's then.

 

I remember when nige was on, and they all clapped when his oppenent talked! Couldn't really get more biased.

It’s strange - both sides of the argument will generally moan that the audience is biased against them !

[st albans fox]

1 minute ago, twoleftfeet said:

This is getting a bit far from the topic tje has been little reporting in any media about the lack of uptake of wearing masks or evan advice on the correct wearing and no advice on the safe removal of gloves i work for a company that has a training course on this. One of the remits of the BBC is education.

Gloves is something I find odd unless you’re wearing full PPE 

 

if you’re wearing them in food prep as basic hygiene then fine but wrt to covid, I struggle to see the logic unless you are continually chucking them away and putting on a new pair .....

 

[Lionator]

3 hours ago, simFox said:

Unfortunately the scientists and the media are.

I know you're mid rant, but evidence based practice aka science is not left wing. It's not political. 

 

Why can't people just take things for what they are? It's a pandemic, they've always happened, it's not some massive thought control experiment.

[simFox]

26 minutes ago, Lionator said:

I know you're mid rant, but evidence based practice aka science is not left wing. It's not political. 

 

Why can't people just take things for what they are? It's a pandemic, they've always happened, it's not some massive thought control experiment.

Erm, did you read what I put up in my link. Here's an extract.

 

Perceived threat: A substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened; it could be that they are reassured by the low death rate in their demographic group, although levels of concern may be rising. Having a good understanding of the risk has been found to be positively associated with adoption of COVID-19 social distancing measures in Hong Kong. The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging. To be effective this must also empower people by making clear the actions they can take to reduce the threat. (fearmongering)

Responsibility to others: There seems to be insufficient understanding of, or feelings of responsibility about, people’s role in transmitting the infection to others. This may have resulted in part from messaging around the low level of risk to most people and talk of the desirability of building ‘herd immunity’. Messaging needs to emphasise and explain the duty to protect others. (More fearmongering)

Social approval: Social approval can be a powerful source of reward. Not only can this be provided directly by highlighting examples of good practice and providing strong social encouragement and approval in communications; members of the community can be encouraged to provide it to each other. This can have a beneficial spill-over effect of promoting social cohesion. Communication strategies should provide social approval for desired behaviours and promote social approval within the community. (You could call it public shaming)

Compulsion: Experience with UK enforcement legislation such as compulsory seat belt use suggests that, with adequate preparation, rapid change can be achieved. Some other countries have introduced mandatory self-isolation on a wide scale without evidence of major public unrest and a large majority of the UK’s population appear to be supportive of more coercive measures. For example, 64% adults in Great Britain said they would support putting London under a ‘lock down’... (coercion!)

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

[yorkie1999]

8 hours ago, sdb said:

Why are deaths going up from non covid reasons? 

Cos everyone’s sat at home getting fat and having heart attacks

[Desabafar]

6 hours ago, simFox said:

Sweden didn't lockdown and their curve is very similar to ours. They followed their normal epidemic plan and didn't bow to media pressure. They were criticised at the time by WHO, now they are praised.

 

We don't need lockdown, we also don't need to force the population into doing things that we can ask them to do. Sensible social distancing, a few extra precautions and keep the economy going. Why anyone thinks or welcomes the notion that people need locking in their houses due to a spike in 50 cases. You must be either easily led, plain stupid or worryingly depraved if you think it's ok to see our social and economic destruction.

 

is there evidence that sweden's strategy was good? their deaths per million people is as high as italy, lower than the counties near them and i don't think their economy has done great. 

 

[Trav Le Bleu]

5 hours ago, simFox said:

Unfortunately the scientists and the media are.

The media are left wing?

 

[Monk]

Just read the last two pages and despair. 
 

@simFox you can’t seem to grasp that the local lockdowns are preemptive - you can’t wait until cases aren’t much higher as the impact on healthcare and the economy would be much worse and the measures would need to be in place much longer. 
 

and of course the more you test the more you find - but what’s your point? That we shouldn’t test or that we shouldn’t be concerned at positive test results.